Westminstenders: Red Squirrels are British. Groundhogs are not.

[RedToothBrush]

Well the good news is we haven't got a GE yet, and it looks unlike one will be called this week. Purely because we haven't got a crisis point looming this week.

May has officially confirmed plan A is plan B. But says she will try and get more on the backstop whilst working with the DUP. Barnier and Ireland have said 'no'

We now prepare for the Meaningful Vote II.

And a week of speculation about amendments.

Here's a quick summary of likely ones:
Guardian Article on possible amendments

I think the Labour one will struggle to gain Tory support. The big thing about it is leans the party line firmly towards a customs union.

The Grieve one is handicapped by talk of a minority of 300 taking control of Parliament. Otherwise it might have support.

The two most interesting are:

The Benn 'Indicative Vote' as its reflective of the Brexit Select Committee recommendations.

The Cooper-Boles Block No Deal amendment which is cross party and seeks to place a final date on May passing her deal by 26th Feb, after which Parliament will take control. This I believe is being supported by Labour as a whole.

Bercow of course gets to say which amendments are debated and voted on but Benn and Cooper-Boles have broad support so are unlikely to be ignored by him. The two together seem to compliment each other.

The rest of this week is likely to be lobbying on this but otherwise fairly calm. Though someone is bound to throw a few curveball in there with leaks.

The only other thing to watch out for is talk of up to 40 ministers quitting if they are not allowed a free vote on some sort of indicative vote motion. This seems to be being lead by Amber Rudd. But I don't expect this to come to a head until the weekend at the earliest.

In other words, we have a couple of days of calm before the storm. Expect it to ramp up again at the weekend in craziness.

Webchat with three experts mentioned upthread on Thursday 24 January 11.30am

Hopefully some no dealers will go on and ask some pertinent questions ( and heed the answers).

http://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/mumsnetlivee_events/3487289-Webchat-with-three-experts-on-Brexit-and-the-EU-on-Thursday-24-January-11-30am

Thanks bellini and 1tisI, that's reassuring. He's very keen so would hate to stop him from having fun.

(Loosely) Brexit related book list.

Bloodlands - Timothy Snyder
On Tyranny - “

Diary of a Man in Despair - Friederich Reck

The World of Yesterday - Stefan Zweig

Europe East and West - Norman Davies

East West Street - Phillipe Sands

Life and Fate - Vasily Grosman

Caught in the Revolution, Petrograd 1917 - Helen Rappaport

Brothers Karamazov - Dostoyevsky

The PM claims that the "deal" she has negotiated protects "rules of origin, blah, blah, blah"

It's. Not. A. Deal.

IT'S. A. TRANSITION. ARRANGEMENT.

THE. ACTUAL. DEAL. IS. STILL. TO. BE. NEGOTIATED.

Seems Microsoft aren't too impressed with the Daily Bile (online)

www.theguardian.com/media/2019/jan/23/dont-trust-daily-mail-website-microsoft-browser-warns-users

Microsoft’s internet browser is warning users not to trust the Daily Mail’s journalism as part of its new feature designed to fight fake news.

Visitors to Mail Online who use the Microsoft Edge browser can now see a statement asserting that “this website generally fails to maintain basic standards of accuracy and accountability” and “has been forced to pay damages in numerous high-profile cases”.

(contd)

Suggests any Brexiteer citing something from the Mail Online has already lost the debate ....

while a staggering 59 per cent couldn’t even name the then-prime minister

A few years ago my 91 year-old dad took a cognitive competence test.

GP: Can you tell me who the Prime Minister is?

Dad: (in tone of deep disgust) Yes, it’s that scoundrel Cameron

Dad was diagnosed with both Alzheimer’s and vascular dementia shortly after but he still knew a thing or two.

The school have to get food for the residential and fuel for the residential. If there is a problem or its looking likely there will be a problem, the school will pull it. You won't need to.

I wouldn't drop out of a residential that week, if it's in the UK. I'd be more worried about an overseas trip. I personally would see what happens and worst case pull at the last moment. I certainly wouldn't be doing anything about it now. Too soon.

THE. ACTUAL. DEAL. IS. STILL. TO. BE. NEGOTIATED.

Prettybird if this cursed WA ever gets through a lot of people are going to be very surprised when they find we have however many years of negotiating still to come.

{France on alert for tide of British refugees risking lives to cross Channel} From the Suffolk whatever posted earlier.

I mentioned finishing off the Atlantic wall a few weeks back. Moving tank production to the EU seems a good idea too.
A good trade to be had in inflatables. Immigrants take them to UK, Brits bring them back. Win Win it seems.

PainInTheEar
As long as safety isn't compromised, and there is no reason it should, a 'change in plan' is no problem for youngsters. If it meant a delay getting back to school, all the better!

I was vaguely thinking last night that the order of disorder (?) would probably start with officials encountering situations that the legislation/preparations haven't encompassed, envisaged or provided for (the edge cases).

If we imagine a port, that will be a lorry pulled to one side.

Of those cases, there will be some that can't be answered/authorised by a quick phone call (you can forget emails). So there will be a subset of cases waiting for clarification from the experts.

Of course this is happening all over the UK, so the experts will pretty quickly be overwhelmed, and replies and answers will start to take hours and days ... no idea what that lorry will do while waiting.

Eventually, somewhere in this mass, one of the actions or answers is going to trip a companies legal radar. So you'll have laywers being called in to deal with cases where the officials aren't following the law ("which law ?" is probably a phrase that will be heard a lot). Officials will either not enforce what the law is supposed to be without clarification (I know I wouldn't). So that's another line of backlogs into the courts.

Meanwhile those delayed lorries are costing someone something. So companies are going to have to have discussions with their banking providers. (Sidenote about Santander closing 140 branches today). So the banking sector will get jammed up (you think it's bad now).

All in all, I'd give it a week.

Anyone care to add or point out anything major I've missed ?

{The PM claims that the "deal" she has negotiated protects "rules of origin, blah, blah, blah}

I can just feel the negotiators in Brussels shaking their heads in disbelief at this sort of twaddle. This is the woman who wants her country to return to being an independent superpower.

misti just read your post about applying for settled status. That’s appalling. I’m so sorry.

It wasn't about me! It was someone on twitter. Will be one of many.

Lunchtime update from Hazard Crumbling Towers:
-I have received the wetherspoons magazine which I shall read over lunch because I like indigestion?
-I hate the benefit system

• Still sending love to 2bees if they're lurking

-I hate the benefit system means I hate the benefit system -I'd love a holiday -The kitchen has so many meds in it looks like a pharmacist -Arghhhhh...

Good question on deprivation and council funding. I often find the backbench questions better than the leaders.

I should clarify that when I suggested putting a must-have book shelf together I didn’t only mean Brexit-related - I was also thinking of books that Westminstenders feel every home should have (if we’re hunkering down for a while and needing some old-school entertainment) rather than specifically Brexit related. This probably counts as a derail of course so maybe not the right place for it.

I’m not complaining btw! I’m personally really grateful for the Brexit-relevant suggestions. I’ve added a number of them of to my ‘must-get’ list but just feeling a little in case anyone thinks I’m suggesting Anne of Green Gables or The Secret Diary of Adrian Mole as relevant to Brexit in any way

Apparently some people are posting the Wetherspoons magazine back without a stamp.

{Anyone care to add or point out anything major I've missed ?}
HMRC attempting to use current and 'new' software (if it's anywhere near ready).
Trucks 'cost' around £400 a day so being 'idle' will have very serious repercussions.

Anne of green gables is one of my all time favourite books. I have nearly the whole set in a 1930s edition that my grandmother bought in a library sale.

And nothing wrong with Adrian Mole. I wish Sue Townsend was still with us to write an Adrian Mole brexit book.

{Apparently some people are posting the Wetherspoons magazine back without a stamp.}
I wonder how alcohol filled Brexiters will react when the 'bubble' bursts and an innocent passing 'Remainer' mentions that 'We won' actually means 'We lost'?

Books? Anything by Sara Paretsky. We all need a kick ass, social conscience, female private investigator in our lives.

I love books. My house is full of books. My books are like old friends: full of memories of time well spent together, and always there.

Dh noticed that May has changed her wording from "The will of the people" to "The vote of the people"

Over the course of my life, I've ditched most things over the years. The only things I still have from 50 years ago are books. I really don't think I've kept anything else for so long.