Westminstenders: Red Squirrels are British. Groundhogs are not.

[RedToothBrush]

Well the good news is we haven't got a GE yet, and it looks unlike one will be called this week. Purely because we haven't got a crisis point looming this week.

May has officially confirmed plan A is plan B. But says she will try and get more on the backstop whilst working with the DUP. Barnier and Ireland have said 'no'

We now prepare for the Meaningful Vote II.

And a week of speculation about amendments.

Here's a quick summary of likely ones:
Guardian Article on possible amendments

I think the Labour one will struggle to gain Tory support. The big thing about it is leans the party line firmly towards a customs union.

The Grieve one is handicapped by talk of a minority of 300 taking control of Parliament. Otherwise it might have support.

The two most interesting are:

The Benn 'Indicative Vote' as its reflective of the Brexit Select Committee recommendations.

The Cooper-Boles Block No Deal amendment which is cross party and seeks to place a final date on May passing her deal by 26th Feb, after which Parliament will take control. This I believe is being supported by Labour as a whole.

Bercow of course gets to say which amendments are debated and voted on but Benn and Cooper-Boles have broad support so are unlikely to be ignored by him. The two together seem to compliment each other.

The rest of this week is likely to be lobbying on this but otherwise fairly calm. Though someone is bound to throw a few curveball in there with leaks.

The only other thing to watch out for is talk of up to 40 ministers quitting if they are not allowed a free vote on some sort of indicative vote motion. This seems to be being lead by Amber Rudd. But I don't expect this to come to a head until the weekend at the earliest.

In other words, we have a couple of days of calm before the storm. Expect it to ramp up again at the weekend in craziness.

Newspaper time

I wouldnt normally include the morning star but the lead story is interesting.

It states that the latest unemployment figures are hiding an ugly regional disparity with a large increase in several regions (the North East particularly so). I take with a slight pinch of salt as its only one 3 month period and percentages can make the problem look bigger than it is.

It also says that there is the biggest squeeze on pay in 200 years since Napoleonic times.

The 1830s were terrible in cloth making areas as the industry started to be undercut by other countries. It drove people from some rural communities to the cities in search of work because so many people were unemployed in some areas, parish relief wasn't enough to feed families. People were only really saved by the coming industrial revolution.

This is not a good sign.

Dyson really isn't popular. The traitor!

Dyson was all for a no deal brexit. He already planned to shut the factory and he can now blame brexit in doing so. People can be so gullible sometimes especially the British public

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
Excl: Woefully underprepared Tories will lose a snap general election and Corbyn will be PM of a rainbow coalition - bombshell internal party assessment

www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/8257029/tories-lose-snap-general-election-unblock-brexit/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
Tory chiefs warn they’ll lose a snap General Election as they’re underprepared to fight

Secret party projections instead put Jeremy Corbyn in No 10, at the helm of a rainbow coalition government including the SNP and the Lib Dems

This article is fascinating if only for this little snippet:

One senior minister also told The Sun on Tuesday that the Tory vote has collapsed in middle class pro-Remain areas.

The minister said: “I walk down smarter streets in my constituency these days that were once strongholds and don’t want anything to do with us now.

"If you knock on a door and they have books on their shelves, you can be pretty sure these days they’re not voting Tory.”

Ironically, Scottish unemployment has dropped marginally and numbers in employment are up

Of course, this is nothing whatsoever to do with the SNP Government , unlike when the figures are reversed and then, according to Sarah Smith the BBC, it is all down to the incompetence of the nasty SNP Government

In reality of course it is statistically insignificant.

"If you knock on a door and they have books on their shelves, you can be pretty sure these days they’re not voting Tory.”

I'm not sure whether to laugh or to cry at that gem.

As conspiracy theories are flying around in abundance I heard this morning that Russia has 5 steps to destroy Europe and America. Apparently Putin seems to be doing really well. America in disarray with a president willing to starve his own people just to get his way over a wall, the UK in disarray over brexit, Europe about to enter a recession, the rise of far right and left in countries, civil unrest raising its ugly head.......apparently all down to Russia. He must be a very clever man Putin.

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/14bn-hit-north-of-the-border-under-a-no-deal-brexit-pdnmwdd3z?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1548160852
‘£14bn hit’ north of the border under a no-deal Brexit

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/hypocrisy-of-brexiteers-who-say-scotland-can-suffer-alone-536j8hbfk?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1548160757
Hypocrisy of Brexiteers who say Scotland can suffer alone

Lots on Scotland tonight.

Brexit Panic Button

No surprises here

This is such a refreshing thread. Actual sharing of analysis and information rather than overused sound bites. Thank you all!

My dd has almost 400 books on her shelves mostly all my dgds and has always been a labour voter. We did by a Kimble with over 300 books on in an attempt to save space but unfortunately my dgd hates it! She loves to read, to hold and smell the book. She says the very act of turning a page physically gives her great pleasure. Most of her books are like tomes too! She gets a sense of achievement from reading them.

1tisILeClerc I totally get where you're coming from. I was just making a point about placement really. I have a professional aversion to right-hand columns is all and can't help myself.

And thank you for the username compliment.

Only a matter of time.

Sos - my dd is the same. She also buys LPs ...

DH and I both use kindles, both our kids prefer books.

Another government IT disaster...

More on this story in the law gazette www.lawgazette.co.uk/practice/courts-it-meltdown-trials-delayed-jurors-left-waiting-and-lawyers-struggle-to-get-paid/5068963.article
Courts IT meltdown: Trials delayed, jurors left waiting and lawyers struggle to get paid

The secret barrister has been tweeting about it earlier this week

The Secret Barrister @ barristersecret
The entire digital infrastructure of the courts has been broken for days. Phones aren’t working, court computers are offline, email is down.

Imagine the headlines if it were the NHS.

But it’s only justice, so no one cares.

No accountability, no lessons learned.

Now about that Irish border tech solution...

Perhaps a very big firm like Airbus needs to leave in order to focus the minds.

Last time Airbus made an announcement about having to make cut backs/ leave because of brexit (back in the spring this was) one erudite stalwart of the great brexit voting public - those whose intellect we must never impugn - tweeted that this was absolutely fine because she flew Ryanair anyway

I'm afraid you cannot focus the minds of the mindless.

Mike Smithson @ msmithsonpb
A cheerful market here from PaddyPower - what is going to be rationed first?

mistigri yay! My dgd buys LPs too! She's 17 and into old pop! She has Beatles, queen, meatloaf, Abba and adores old Nat King Cole recordings. I presented her with all my original beatles EPs and LPs on her 16th along with a retro record player exactly like the one i had at her age! She's also into kpop mainly BTS, is teaching herself mandarin and Japanese for fun too! (She also thinks maths is fun and is doing A level in it)

In the Ivan Rogers speech I linked above, < listen to it ! >

he says that business still don't believe No Deal will happen, because the PM / Cabinet ministers assured them privately that it won't
< Dyson obviously fled before the coming storm >

BUT
he says the risk of No Deal is very high,

because Brexit leaders - he names Boris in particular - are knowingly lying to the public about the consequences,

while at the same time PV Remain supporters are trashing every kind of soft Brexit - and that they#ll regret it later after Brexit, when they find themselves trying to desperately defend what the tried to destroy

SO
he says if / when No Deal happens, business trust in the British govt will be totally destroyed, longterm.

He also said that the UK may not exist in 10 years time
Presumably he expects NI and / or Scotland to split away in the chaotic aftermath & economic crash of No Deal

Shipping operator P&O has announced it will be re-flagging its entire UK-registered fleet to Cyprus ahead of Brexit, in order to keep its tax arrangements within the European Union.

The exodus continues

IMO I think no one will know till the 27th march. It will go to the wire. There's TMs an JCs power playing and also the EU. Which one will cave in? Unlikely to be EU (unless they are genuinely worrying about upcoming recession.) So its between the completely useless 2 leaders ( not in the real sense of the word) going butthead to butthead up to last minute.
Surely Parliament can't go into recess for Easter with all this going on? They should be made to keep open till after March 29th.

amp.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/22/brexit-will-cost-civil-service-74m-a-year-in-staff-turnover-report?CMP=share_btn_tw&__twitter_impression=true
We will never be fully prepared for Brexit, says civil service chief
John Manzoni confirms emergency no-deal plans as report reveals impact of Brexit

Steve Bullock @ guitarmoog
Nothing to see here. Just 5,000 civil servants drafted in for a 24/7 “Command and Control” operation in the event of a No Deal Brexit.

Because that’s what countries do for things that will be ‘fine’, ‘an opportunity’, or that we ‘will prosper under’

And before somebody who hadn’t heard of the WTO until 2018 comes and drops by to sneer “project fear”, this is explained in the article by a senior civil servant who is contractually obliged to be impartial.

“If the UK leaves without a deal, deadlines for implementing new arrangements would be tighter still,” it says. “The government could only expect to have ‘a fraction’ of the necessary processes and systems in place – such as ensuring that the UK complies with international law – by exit.”

Only five of the 13 bills the government has said it needs to pass before Britain leaves the EU have made it through parliament, it finds.

www.mirror.co.uk/money/pets-home-stockpile-8million-pet-13890194.amp?__twitter_impression=true
Pets at Home to stockpile £8million in pet food amid fears of hard Brexit
More than 17% of the chain's current supplies come from outside the UK - which could come to a standstill in March