To ask why would anyone want no deal?

[guinea36]

Watching Sunday morning political shows. A few politicians suggesting they would prefer no deal if necessary. These people are presumably intelligent and educated
Yet they believe - although I struggle to see it - that ultimately it will be better for the country economically in the long run. Just wondering what the theory is behind this belief?

6.5%

Wave goodbye to the margin on your gnomes.

It kind of does actually, because UK-delivered type approval will no longer be valid

I know that. But in the absence of that there is still a way to get EU type-approval. A model to built in Sunderland can be as easily type-approved in France as in the UK - maybe they already are.

The Guardian is reporting that Toyota and Honda are looking to move type approval to France, and Bentley to Luxembourg. Vauxhall already uses European agencies.

yes the WTO is a "trade deal", its an agreement on trade standards and tariffs.

Which is the point I made at 9.46 this morning in this thread.

No trade deals are required because WTO membership itself provides a legal framework for international trade.

Except that saying "no trade deal" is different from saying reverting to WTO standards.

It is not possible to trade outside of a trade deal or WTO standards.

On WTO rules, the UK exports are severely impeded.

Clearance happens 'in the cloud' while the load is en route.

Sorry to go back to this point. I was reading about this recently and my limited understanding is that this works well with non-EU imports that are shipped from China etc as the shipping itself takes several days. The documentation is logged in the cloud at some point soon after embarcation (can goods embark?) and processed during the 5-6 day journey. The article suggested that the trouble with imports, eg of car parts from Germany, is that the entire transport time is under 24 hours. The systems are not set up to deal with processing customs information in that time period.

Except that saying "no trade deal" is different from saying reverting to WTO standards.

To me it was quite clear that the belief was that even if we 'crash out on WTO terms' we still need a separate trade deal with any country we want to buy goods from.

No one has suggested that.

I think you are playing with semantics now.

Can't remember if I've posed this here before but always worth posting again to help those who like me, didn't know what wto rules meant, or those who are hard of understanding. I think most people think it's like shopping in Tesco instead of Sainsbury's: just an alternative that might cost a little more. The reality is eye-opening.

fishes give it up with the straw man argument.

No one has said trade with other countries will be completely impossible.

Having said that, when tariffs and NTB’s mean it’s not economically viable, it might as well be impossible.

WTO terms are the 'rules of the game' and apart from a baseline set of tariffs actually define relatively little.
Although the UK has membership of the WTO in it's own right, it abandoned or replaced it's original tariffs when it joined the EEC/EU.
So, the UK has permission to use the rulebook but all the tariffs are reset to 'base rates' that no one else uses.

FishesaPlenty
It would be polite if you didn't misquote me. I have never said it is impossible, but I have said it will take considerable time, during which there will be chaos. HMRC running dual sets of logging systems will be a good starting point.

One point I have been making for ages is that Leavers are prone to selective interpretation of headlines. Roughly 2/3 of what is said is true but the 'qualifier' that balances up the statement is either false or gets omitted.
Hence my comment about Patrick Minford. Yes this ideas on economics are for a large part true, BUT to see it happen in practice requires the decimation of the manufacturing industry or some other 'minor detail' that somehow misses the page. A form of 'lying by omission'.

So, the UK has permission to use the rulebook but all the tariffs are reset to 'base rates' that no one else uses.

No they're not. The UK has replicated the EU schedules. Even down to tariffs being expressed in Euros. And the UK has agreed to keep the preferential rates for developing countries.

These WTO tariffs are not "base rates", the tariff commitments in the schedules are bound rates, and act as ceilings.

@Buteo where have you got that information from as not heard that before?

Bugger it, I don't care any more.
When you have Boris 'F$ck business' Johnson proclaiming he knows more about car making than the UK head of JLR in Halewood you just know things aren't going well.

Perverse Peter Ungphakorn is a good source on Twitter and on his TradeBetaBlog - he is ex WTO.

It would be polite if you didn't misquote me. I have never said it is impossible

I asked you a direct question to be sure I was understanding you correctly:

Me: Do you think we need a trade deal in place to buy something from someone in another country?

1tisILeClerc: Of course.

I don't think for a moment that you were including our WTO membership in the 'trade deals' you say we need in order to buy from other countries.

Having said that, if I have misunderstood you somehow then I'm happy to offer my apologies.

The WTO is the organisation that polices the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, GATT.

It would be fucking hard - not to mention completely and utterly bonkers - to argue that a "general agreement on trade" is not, in fact, a "trade deal".

{Having said that, if I have misunderstood you somehow then I'm happy to offer my apologies.}
Too late for that, the 'leavers' experience has persuaded me to flounce off.

LeClexit

WTO is probably better described as an international trading system with a general set of agreed rules.

and there's no certainty that there'll be problems
Chiefs simply cannot handle the order of magnitude increase in transactions - the new system is a major new government IT project being delivered in < 9 months. (there's always a dilbert: dilbert.com/strip/2014-10-12 )

Given this government's track record in IT delivery I'd say there is a certainty of problems - intensified by the fact that a significant proportion of the configuration is not yet defined!

Thank you Fishes, you have made things so much clearer for me. I did also mention up thread that 20% of freight traffic going through Dover at the moment could easily go through other ports or be containerised.

So that would definitely help the situation. I'm also sure there are also quite a few things that don't actually need to go back and forward over the channel and manufacturers have simply got into the habit of doing this because they can. I'm thinking of pre-prepared meals where a lot of the raw ingredients are grown in the UK then shipped to Holland to be made up into meals and then shipped back.

Well, I went grocery shopping earlier today here in the U.S. and I noticed that the isle where they kept candy from the U.K. had shrunk dramatically to practically nothing.

I don't think you have to wait until March to see the effects of a possible no-deal on trade. Stores and other types of businesses outside the U.K. need reliable suppliers for goods and services and I can see why they would start looking elsewhere for goods and services they would normally get from the U.K.

Even with a WA they would probably be reluctant to re-establish trade with the U.K. seeing how things were still quite not settled.

I checked out what the U.K. exports and found this:

" The UKs top ten exports accounted for 74.6 per cent of the overall value of its global shipments in 2013, according to the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook Database.

Furthermore, exports accounted for 22.7 per cent of total UK economic output.

Pearls, gems, precious metals and coins: £58,544,016,505 (18 per cent of total exports)
Machinery: $70,364,012,000 (13%)
Mineral fuels including oil: £42,316,564,997 (11.5 per cent)
Vehicles excluding trains and streetcars: £29,842,769,695 (9.2 per cent)
Pharmaceutical products: £19,400,359,207 (six per cent)
Electronic equipment: £18,615,930,240 (5.8 per cent)
Optical, technical and medical apparatus: £11,147,461,930 (3.4 per cent)
Aircraft and spacecraft: £10,589,936,289 (3.3 per cent)
Organic chemicals: £7,691,241,858 (2.4 per cent)
Plastics: £7,218,461,794 (2.2 per cent) ".

Companies in these various sectors from outside the U.K if they have any sense at all will be looking for replacement suppliers outside of the U.K.

xebobfromUS
It is worth (if you are interested) looking at where 'UK' sweets and chocolate are actually made as there are very few factories in the UK.
Cadburys IIRC is owned by TATA (India) who own Hotel chains, Jaguar Landrover, TyPhoo (Tea) and more, including steelmaking. Many chocolates are made by Mondiale (it is French or Swiss owned perhaps) I think in Poland.

Cadbury is owned by Mondelez International (originally Kraft Foods)