To ask why would anyone want no deal?

[guinea36]

Watching Sunday morning political shows. A few politicians suggesting they would prefer no deal if necessary. These people are presumably intelligent and educated
Yet they believe - although I struggle to see it - that ultimately it will be better for the country economically in the long run. Just wondering what the theory is behind this belief?

{It just means that we''ll be treating the 58-ish% percent of EEA imports and exports exactly the same as we treat the 42-ish% of non-EEA. Logically that's probably a 140-ish% increase in transactions for Customs }

WRONG
The computer systems available now do not have the capacity to process the increased data. It is being worked on but it will bot be ready for 6 months or more (assuming it works immediately, for which the UK Gov have an appalling track record).

{ it's just the basic physical problem of every lorry having to stop for a few minutes before leaving the port.
Obviously there will be some sort of cost implications but there's no real 'mountain' of extra paperwork to do - just an extra stage of admin processes which most people aren't familiar with.}
You are summarising this in the way that you could say that open heart surgery is just waving a sharp knife around.
The 'knock on' effect of a customs officer having to spend a minute longer querying a single item because a form is filled in incorrectly is tremendous.

I love how leavers on here are giving opinions which are in direct contradiction of the industry experts.

{I think it is worth remembering that only 3% of all non EU imports are physically checked at the border so not a massive difference yo now, given that there are spot checks done at Dover now.}
WTO rules would mean that far more than 3% will have to be checked in future. I can't remember if it is 100% or not.

Its worth noting that something like 75% of all of our trade is covered by the EU, EU FTAs or industry level agreements. This means that border checks may not be necessary for many of these imports from non EU countries.

They will be outside of the EU.

That's not to trivialise the potential for problems with vehicles queuing at Dover/Calais but it's not potential additional paperwork that's the problem, it's just the basic physical problem of every lorry having to stop for a few minutes before leaving the port.

The Port of Dover says EU lorries are processed in around two minutes, whereas it takes around 20 minutes to clear non-EU lorries. Other evidence given to a committee of MPs suggests it can sometimes take longer for non-EU lorries.
fullfact.org/europe/lorries-dover

Dover is outrageously efficient. It processes 7 lorries a min

10,000 lorries a day go through Dover.
Lets pretend that everything goes amazingly smoothly and customs manage to take 2 mins rather than 20 mins.
10,000 x 2 = 20,000 extra mins to process a days traffic.
Which is 333 and a third hours.
Otherwise known as 13.8 days.

Fishes there is the potential of a few hold ups.

The research carried out by University College London for the Department of Transport found that up to 40 seconds longer clearing customs would have no effect, 60 seconds delay would result in 3 hour queues, 70 seconds would lead to 6 day queues and 80 seconds would be unrecoverable. Unrecoverable means total gridlock across the entire country.

Yay, lets do it!

WRONG

No, not wrong at all. I said It just means that we''ll be treating the 58-ish% percent of EEA imports and exports exactly the same as we treat the 42-ish% of non-EEA. Logically that's probably a 140-ish% increase in transactions for Customs.

What exactly is WRONG about that? I could have added "they may not be up to coping with that increase" but my failure to do so doesn't make anything that I did say 'WRONG'.

CDS is due before the end of March and it will run alongside the current CHIEF system until it's fully rolled-out, providing extra capacity. Obviously if it all fucks up there may be problems but it's not 6 months away and there's no certainty that there'll be problems.

The 'knock on' effect of a customs officer having to spend a minute longer querying a single item because a form is filled in incorrectly is tremendous.

That's not what they're there to do. Clearance happens 'in the cloud' while the load is en route. The driver presenting himself at Dover customs is doing the equivalent of saying "here I am, the load's already on your system, if it's cleared let me through, if not then shuffle me off to the side and check my paperwork and/or my load.

But I've already acknowledged the issues with the potential for queues at Customs. I actually work in transport and it will probably impact my business.

Yet Clearance happening in the cloud is not ready.

This has been said by people in the industry.

@PestymcPestFace "Fishes there is the potential of a few hold ups."

Yes, I've said so myself many times on here. I don't really need reminding about it just because I don't mention it in every post. I made it clear in my post that I appreciate the potential for problems at Dover/Calais.

As I said though - it's not potential additional paperwork that's the problem, it's just the basic physical problem of every lorry having to stop for a few minutes before leaving the port

I don't work in shipping or customs but I do work for a company which relies on JIT supply chains ...

From what I am seeing, the reckoning is that "no deal" adds about 10 days to shipments into the EU (that's what sales people are telling customers).

Obviously all of this is an estimate and modelling the impact at Dover and other channel ports is extremely difficult, because very small changes in assumptions (40 second delay? 60 seconds? 2 minutes?) will give a radically different result. Because of that, it's a very high stakes, very high risk gamble.

{But I've already acknowledged the issues with the potential for queues at Customs. I actually work in transport and it will probably impact my business.}
The 'wrong' element is that you are minimising disruption and leading others who know nothing about the subject to believe that all will be fine and dandy. Of course in time things will be resolved but knowing that your lunch will arrive in 2 weeks time is no good.
It is irresponsible to state that there will be no issue especially as it is obvious that most of the UK have no damn clue how things actually work.
The responsible thing to do is flag an issue and put an informed estimate and solution forward.

Yet Clearance happening in the cloud is not ready.

Yes it is, it's been happening for years. It's not really 'in the cloud' but that's the best way to visualise it. The importer or exporter makes the customs declaration electronically. it's processed by HMRC's system and flagged for human attention if necessary or pre-cleared. The goods then arrive at the port, driver hands over his paperwork, and Customs match against the information already on the system. If the load's not been flagged for further attention it's matched to it's customs declaration and the truck gets on its way.

The 'wrong' element is that you are minimising disruption

No I'm not, it's been discussed so many times on here that there was no point in propagating the "woe is me, it's the end of the world" message. I'm an ardent leaver but I'm also a realist. Things could go very bad, but you running around exaggerating problems and insisting that everyone accepts your misunderstandings as actual facts doesn't really help anyone.

It just gives the Brexit bunch ammunition to shout "Project Fear" when people like you with no actual knowledge of the subject continue to scream about problems which are quite obviously exaggerated.

There will be no paperwork mountains, but there will probably still be huge queues of trucks at Dover. Everyone acknowledges that except for the die-hard leaver muppets.

Similarly, we can still trade throughout the world, even without any trade deals.

@FishesaPlenty do you understand what WTO rules mean?? And the impact on the GFA?

Just to preempt the obvious response:

Similarly, we can still trade throughout the world, albeit it probably at lower volumes and subject to tariffs and NTBs even without any trade deals.

{Similarly, we can still trade throughout the world, even without any trade deals.}
Kindly explain in reasonable detail EXACTLY how this will happen.
Which trade bodies will certify the goods. Who will take legal responsibility if the goods cause death.
If it is so easy, you can explain this with no problem. Please do so before dismissing my legitimate concern.

do you understand what WTO rules mean?? And the impact on the GFA?

Yes, I would have thought that was obvious. We weren't discussing NI in this case though, it was the misconception of trucks turning up at Calais with a big wad of papers and Customs sifting through every item line there and then to check for errors that I was addressing, along with the same poster's previous misunderstanding about trade deals.

Please tell me car insurance that I'll sort it out eventually and you can trust me because I'm a great driver. So I don't actually need tedious paperwork to get on the road, I just want to get on with it.
Brexit like that, you mean?

Which trade bodies will certify the goods. Who will take legal responsibility if the goods cause death.

If goods need to meet certain standards before being allowed in the country then that's dealt with by the WTO schedule. How do you think this sort of trade currently happens between two countries with no trade deal or with a trade deal which doesn't cover particular goods?

If goods can enter the country but need to pass certain tests before being sold or going into use then that's a matter for the importer to deal with.

Kindly explain in reasonable detail EXACTLY how this will happen.

First, kindly explain exactly how you think it won't?

I have a business selling plastic gnomes. A customer in post no-deal France wants to buy 1,000 of them. I load the truck, make my customs declaration, take them to Dover, queue up for 2 days, spend 2 minutes with Customs at Dover, get the ferry, queue up for 2 hours, spend 3 minutes with Customs at Calais and deliver to the customer in Paris. France has gnomes at last. And all without a trade deal.

The problem with the airy hand wafting about cloud solutions is that many of the companies which currently ship goods via Dover have never filled in a customs declaration because they only do EU business.

There is a poster who once worked in customs at Dover, before the single market, who reckons that by the last week of March, if there is no deal then drivers will start to get nervous about being caught on the wrong side of the border.

We'll know soon enough eh

Ah. Plastic gnomes.

Some experts say that food is more perishable and more important than gnomes.

Ah. Plastic gnomes.

OK, it's not jam, but it's a start.

Some experts say that food is more perishable and more important than gnomes.

I agree, and obviously I recognise the potential problems. I was only addressing the issue of whether a trade agreement is needed for trade to be carried out.

{I have a business selling plastic gnomes. A customer in post no-deal France wants to buy 1,000 of them. I load the truck, make my customs declaration, take them to Dover, queue up for 2 days, spend 2 minutes with Customs at Dover, get the ferry, queue up for 2 hours, spend 3 minutes with Customs at Calais and deliver to the customer in Paris. France has gnomes at last. And all without a trade deal.}

OK. The plastic gnomes have a 'dangly bit' and a child swallows it and sadly dies.
In a 'no deal' Brexit, the legal certifications between the EU and the UK are null and void until renegotiated.
How do you resolve that?