To ask why would anyone want no deal?

[guinea36]

Watching Sunday morning political shows. A few politicians suggesting they would prefer no deal if necessary. These people are presumably intelligent and educated
Yet they believe - although I struggle to see it - that ultimately it will be better for the country economically in the long run. Just wondering what the theory is behind this belief?

@HateIsNotGood TBH I think leaving will be so bad that I'm ten or fifteen years we'll ask to re-enter and we'll get shitty terms.

No deal seems to be advocated as allowing us not to pay the 19-39 billion.

It's also been suggested on this thread that the energy interconnect won't be under threat with a no deal.

So despite us leaving without paying our debts we'd be asking them to continue to send us electricity - wont they want something on account?

Unless we propose to stop trading with the EU then we will need a 'deal' at some point, at which point would not the EU demand we settle our debts, with interest, before agreeing any kind of deal?

But the bbc story above about the French farmers illustrates why this will never happen. It is not in the French interest to kill off trade between us.

They are not going to kill off trade, but checks will slow down traffic dramatically because of lack of space and infrastructure.

Are you saying the government isn't competent to assess the impact of no deal, but you are? What qualifies you?

Ultimately deals will be done but that could be many months or even years away.

As long as the rest of the world gets a move on with things their end, Liam says we are good to go at this end, its the 'others' that are the issue, or so he says. And he is honest as the day is long

{No deal seems to be advocated as allowing us not to pay the 19-39 billion.}
JRM asked May about that today. £19 Billion is for services up to 29 March. Failure to pay that on top pf all the last 2 years of failed diplomatic crap would mean that nobody would deal with the UK unless it was cash before delivery.
As you say, deals have to be done on 30 March onwards and refusal to pay will just put the nails in the coffin.

Fresh produce from anywhere other than Europe as now will be near impossible. For a start nowhere else has such a huge volume of food 'sitting on shelves'.
Cost and time for it to arrive from the USA rule all fresh foods out.

Misti. Nothing qualifies me but I do a lot of business with France. France is gearing up for no deal.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46906046
They sell us a huge amount of goods and they cannot afford to lose us as a market. It is not in their interest to allow the EU (or the UK) to impose punitive tariffs and checks. The farmers unions will put enormous pressure on the EU to minimise disruption.
I am not saying there will be no disruption and no teething problems but the doom-mongering on here is in my opinion completely misplaced.

.{ It is not in their interest to allow the EU (or the UK) to impose punitive tariffs and checks}
It's not down to the EU or France. The UK leaving the EU is removing itself from the existing EU trade deals ratified by the WTO.

Reading through this thread - thing which strikes me is a lot of people including millyonth saying “no deal won’t be a problem because the other side will do x, y or z”. But in a negotiation your bottom line has to be what you can live with if the other side doesn’t move. So millyonth what are you prepared to live with from an actual no deal (not what you hope will happen from the other side). Personally I am not keen on shortages in medical supplies or nappies or toilet paper for 6 months if actual no deal... are you prepared to accept that for yourself ( and for others who don’t agree with you?)

Okay LeClerc to spell it out in full. After a no-deal exit, French apples will be prohibitively expensive here. If the EU don't strike a new deal quickly then we will buy our apples elsewhere. The French will not allow that to happen because we are the largest market for their apples. Their unions are very militant. Therefore a new deal will be struck ... hopefully a free trade deal.

I'm no fan of Liam Fox, but of course nobody is negotiating deals yet. They won't do it until No Deal happens. But then they will.

But in a negotiation your bottom line has to be what you can live with if the other side doesn’t move.

Exactly this. It’s far more complicated than “they buy more from us than we buy from them”.

For French food produce, France is a vendor who is constrained, unless it goes to find new customers, but at the same time the UK is constrained as there are no other ready made sources of produce. The legal certifications, standards and checking will all have to be renegotiated, at that will take time, probably months.

NFU says uk food and farming export £13 billion to EU, 10x more than the french export to us!

No-deal wont happen but if it does, it will not be the cakewalk Milly suggests.

I am not willing to accept any shortage of medical supplies. I trust the government to sort this and I trust other countries to co-operate on this.
Toilet paper and nappies is less critical. Anyway, the supermarkets are stockpiling in case of disruption - which will not last long. Why would it? You don't need trade deals to buy things from other countries.

The French will not allow that to happen because we are the largest market for their apples

This is total fantasy. The integrity of the single market and the European project are far more important than one export market.

Ireland will be badly hit under a no deal situation. Yet the country knows that there will be no pandering to the UK at the last minute. All efforts are going into finding new export markets to make up the deficit. I'm sure France is exactly the same.

{Okay LeClerc to spell it out in full. After a no-deal exit, French apples will be prohibitively expensive here. If the EU don't strike a new deal quickly then we will buy our apples elsewhere. }
No the WTO makes the rules.
Where else are you going to buy apples of the variety that the UK wants in sufficient quantity, and a price that is better than being put on a lorry and taken 100 miles?
It is like the fish argument. The UK doesn't like most of the fish varieties found in UK coastal waters, the majority caught goes straight to France and Spain. The UK is keener on Cod and Haddock from the North sea and towards iceland.

I am off to bed now.

I am not willing to accept any shortage of medical supplies. I trust the government to sort this and I trust other countries to co-operate on this.

Well you should have thought about that before you voted for this shit show.

I never cease to be amazed by this kind of arrogance... ‘I’m not willing to accept.....’

{ You don't need trade deals to buy things from other countries.}
Of course you do. So you buy 'cheap' nappies from China that have harmful chemicals used so that babies bums get ulcers etc. It all needs certifying and checking and a legal framework around it. Leaving the EU with no deal rips it all up.
Why is this so hard to understand?

{I am not willing to accept any shortage of medical supplies. I trust the government to sort this and I trust other countries to co-operate on this.}
The terms of A50 cut all ties between (the UK) and Europe. Effectively trust has been broken.

I trust the government to sort this and I trust other countries to co-operate on this.

Quoting Isabel Oakeshott for a second time - hope is not a strategy.
When it comes to basics such as medicines and food my bottom line isn’t trusting that a seemingly incompetent government will sort anything. The FT were reporting not too long ago that Hancock and Gove were arguing over whether food or medicine should take priority.
I’d rather have some kind of cast iron guarantee that we will be able to feed our people and have the medication we need. That’s a fairly reasonable bottom line.

I am not willing to accept any shortage of medical supplies. I trust the government to sort this and I trust other countries to co-operate on this.

Am not sure this counts as no deal... no deal means you have to be prepared for other countries not to co-operate ...Hence why no deal is such a problem - the reality is very unpleasant
Anyway sleep well

Since when were the words 'trust' and 'government' inextricably linked? Never mind 'sunlit uplands' - sounds more like 'rose-tinted spectacles' to me.

*Nothing qualifies me
*
Brexit and its supporters in a nutshell.

Misti You made me laugh before i go off to bed, a very true observation.