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Original poster

To ask why would anyone want no deal?

631 replies

guinea36 · 20/01/2019 11:17

Watching Sunday morning political shows. A few politicians suggesting they would prefer no deal if necessary. These people are presumably intelligent and educated
Yet they believe - although I struggle to see it - that ultimately it will be better for the country economically in the long run. Just wondering what the theory is behind this belief?

OP posts:
jasjas1973 · 21/01/2019 09:51

Obviously you didn't listen to Liam Fox on the Andrew Marr show where he specifically stated that he had deals ready with countries how have free trade deals with the EU at the moment

Fox is a liar, he lied during the brexit campaign and lied when he was defence minister and was forced to resign.

He should be finished as a Government minister or indeed an MP, he took risks with national security.

millyonth · 21/01/2019 10:16

jas I agree with you about Liam Fox.

millyonth · 21/01/2019 10:21

To return to the question in the OP,
People want No Deal because they believe it is a necessary step to securing free trade for the UK. They believe free trade will make the UK more prosperous. The next few paragraphs are the words of the economist Roger Bootle. You may not agree with him, but his point of view is shared by many people.

"The structure of EU tariffs has been designed largely against the interests of the UK. Indeed, it has been fashioned precisely to favour French agricultural interests and German manufacturers. But this protectionist regime is against UK interests. As we leave the EU we will be free to construct our own trade policy.

Once we have actually left the EU, outside the peculiar constraints of Article 50, beyond the various political interests of the EU establishment, and without the pressures of the ticking clock, it should be comparatively easy to conclude a mutually beneficial Free Trade Agreement with the EU. Remember, unlike any other FTA in history, we will begin with mutual zero tariffs and aligned regulations and standards.

So leaving the EU on WTO terms can be the route to a regime of free trade. This would bring widespread economic benefits. Securing it should be our over-riding objective."

Bearbehind · 21/01/2019 10:28

millyonth that quote spectacularly misses the point. It’s yet another example of soundbites that sound good in theory but which actually have no substance in reality.

  • what free trade deals do we want that we couldn’t have within the E.U.?
  • how do you propose we address the fact we might be starting with zero tariffs but that has to change (or both us and the E.U. do it for everyone) because of the most favoured nation rules?
PestymcPestFace · 21/01/2019 10:29

what free trade deals do we want that we couldn’t have within the E.U.?

Bearbehind · 21/01/2019 10:30

And a couple more questions linked to that

  • how will we encourage the likes of a Nissan to stay if JIT production becomes impossible?
  • what industries can we develop to replace jobs if the car manufacturers leave the UK?
BorisBogtrotter · 21/01/2019 10:31

Roger Bootle is a member of the economists for Brexit.

His analysis is incorrect regarding EU tariffs.

The thing he doesn't tell you is that the deal that he wishes to persue see the end of the majority UK farming and manufacturing.

"People want No Deal because they believe it is a necessary step to securing free trade for the UK. "

Rubbish.

1tisILeClerc · 21/01/2019 10:35

{People want No Deal because they believe it is a necessary step to securing free trade for the UK. They believe free trade will make the UK more prosperous.}
People can believe what they like. Making it happen is the major stumbling block because not only do you have to 'believe' but you have to persuade those you wish to trade with to believe too.
They will want cash.

bellinisurge · 21/01/2019 10:36

Roger Bootle doesn't give a shit about you or about how difficult no Deal would be for you.

DippyAvocado · 21/01/2019 10:36

it should be comparatively easy to conclude a mutually beneficial Free Trade Agreement with the EU.

This is why we should not pay any attention to Mr Robert Bootle, as he has already been proven very wrong.

FinallyHere · 21/01/2019 10:37

If I were enormously wealthy and was not keen on reporting all my sources of wealth so that I needed to pay tax on them, I might indeed not care what else happened so long as the UK had left the EU, and was not longer part of their arrangements.

Likewise if I were running a multinational which switched revenue across countries to avoid tax I would also quite like to crash out with no deal.

In those situation I would have enough money to cushion myself from the tediousness if chaos at ports and any limitations on the supply of medicines. I would have personal freedom of movement because any country, yes even the tough ones like USA, AUS and Switzerland will let you stay if you have millions to invest.

It's the real people who will suffer , anyone in a reduced income even more. Sigh.

millyonth · 21/01/2019 10:38

Bear that quote spectacularly misses the point. It’s yet another example of soundbites that sound good in theory but which actually have no substance in reality.
That's your opinion. My opinion is that Bootle is right.
If you are interested, the full article is here:
capx.co/no-deal-is-a-necessary-step-to-securing-free-trade-for-britain/

It's probably academic anyway, because the MPs do not want no-deal and they will find a way to block it!

1tisILeClerc · 21/01/2019 10:40

Like every 'leaver' so far, what they say is selective. The first part appears sensible, practical even, so you go along with it in your mind.
They won't actually round off the speech by telling you it is either impossible, illegal or MIGHT happen in 10 years time, but there is no guarantee.
There are always 2 sides to a story, you have to look for the 'downside', there is always at least one with EVERYTHING to do with Brexit.
Some might be overcome, but the gift horse is not real.

CloudPop · 21/01/2019 10:44

And presumably everyone fully understands exactly how it would all work under WTO rules. It's all completely straightforward. God help us all

1tisILeClerc · 21/01/2019 10:45

For example, of course the UK can trade under basic WTO rules.
The cost of everything will go up, by an average of say 10%.
OK, so I get my blue passport that sounds a good deal, until you realise that 10% is coming out of your wages.

bellinisurge · 21/01/2019 10:47

@CloudPop posh boys whose parents paid oodles of money for their education say it'll be fine so it must be so. And randoms on the internet have said it will be fine so it must be so.

Mistigri · 21/01/2019 10:47

People want No Deal because they believe it is a necessary step to securing free trade for the UK

This is the most utterly bonkers reason imaginable. It's even more bonkers than wanting to leave the U.K. because of brown people.

It's arguing that "we want to leave the world's largest free trade zone because we want free trade".

How do people say this with a straight face?

Buteo · 21/01/2019 10:51

How do people say this with a straight face?

Because they have no idea that 85% of UK trade is facilitated by our EU membership?

millyonth · 21/01/2019 10:52

LeClerc There are always 2 sides to a story I agree that's why I sometimes come on here and try to put the other point of view.

Bearbehind · 21/01/2019 10:54

milly I don’t doubt for a second that your opinion is that Bootle is right but it doesn’t change the fact you can’t answer my questions and therefore can’t explain why you think it is right.

1tisILeClerc · 21/01/2019 11:03

{LeClerc There are always 2 sides to a story I agree that's why I sometimes come on here and try to put the other point of view.}
I am glad you do, but you do have to provide some properly rounded evidence that what you are asserting is true. I have said that SOME of what those who are suggesting leave is valid but that they have not explained what the downsides are, and there are almost always downsides.
Yes through disaster capitalism some will make a hell of a lot of money. What they won't be doing is investing that money into well run healthcare, improvements in social housing, regeneration of areas where traditional jobs are not required. They will be taking their multi millions and 'investing' in other 'get rich quick' schemes worldwide.
They do this in exactly the same way as buying a lottery card at the weekend, it is a source of 'entertainment' once they have their luxury houses in several countries sorted out and protected from the taxman.
The guy who put £900,000 into the leave campaign, made £200,000 'profit' betting against the UK.

OlderThanAverageforMN · 21/01/2019 11:05

"we want to leave the world's largest free trade zone because we want free trade".

Well yes, and no.....

The EU is the world's largest free trade zone, for those members within the EU. But it is a protectionist organisation, in the same way the USA is, and that is one of the reasons it is being so intractable to the UK.

1tisILeClerc · 21/01/2019 11:06

The ideas proposed by Patrick Minford make sense to a point. When you finish what his proposals mean to the working people of the UK you find that in his plan, they are forgotten and most will lose their jobs. This doiesn't mean the proposal is 'wrong' just incomplete and immoral.

MissMalice · 21/01/2019 11:07

that is one of the reasons it is being so intractable to the UK.

How is it being intractable?

millyonth · 21/01/2019 11:07

Sorry Bear I will try to answer your main questiong. what free trade deals do we want that we couldn’t have within the E.U.?
We want our own UK trade deals with the rest of the world without being inside the EU trading bloc which has protectionist tariff walls around it. I accept that that probably means we will have more "brown people" in the UK, misti. Funnily enough that doesn't worry me at all.