To ask why would anyone want no deal?

[guinea36]

Watching Sunday morning political shows. A few politicians suggesting they would prefer no deal if necessary. These people are presumably intelligent and educated
Yet they believe - although I struggle to see it - that ultimately it will be better for the country economically in the long run. Just wondering what the theory is behind this belief?

Sorry I meant Mrs T P

We can't go zero tariff as I understand it. We can't do that because it means going zero tariff with every country in the world, no matter how low their standards. On WTO rules if you go zero tariff with one country, you have to do it with everyone. This would decimate our own farming industry that would not be able to compete with countries where costs are lower and also put us in a position where we have nothing to negotiate with. Why would anyone want to negotiate a good deal with us if we are currently applying zero tariffs to their sales? Not to mention that it would open us up to massively lower standards than we currently enjoy.

I genuinely don't understand why anyone would want to do that.

We can't go zero tariff as I understand it. We can't do that because it means going zero tariff with every country in the world

Yes you are absolutely right.

I genuinely don't understand why anyone would want to do that

Because people don’t know how the WTO works. Which is completely normal. I knew nothing about the WTO until fairly recently. It’s dull as dishwater and insanely complicated.

No deal sounds simple but it’s really not.

I don't get why people are advocating no deal, then. How is this going to be beneficial? Personally, I'm really worried about food and medicine supply chains.

As I understand it, everyone tries to get the lowest possible tariffs on things they don't have/make and higher on the things they do. Therefore we get stuff we don't have cheap, and stuff we make is still worth making.

Which is why trade deals take years. Because everyone is trying to get a good deal. And only accept goods of a certain standard. Just saying "fuck it, zero tariffs" or "fuck it WTO standard tariffs" is monumentally stupid and NO ONE DOES IT!

And of course tariffs go to the government. You know for all that pesky stuff we like to use. Billions, I believe.

This explains the WTO really well for those who are interested.

The Gov. has already put forward a proposal to the WTO for us to continue on the same tariffs as we are at present.

If we end up with no deal we will have some trade deals already as Liam Fox has been getting deals organized with the main countries that at present have free trade deals with the EU.
Remember that 70% of Ireland's beef is exported to the UK, I would think they would be pretty quick in not wanting to go to WTO. Within Germany specific areas are particularly hardly hit by no deal like Bavaria where all the motor industry is concentrated. Local government officials from there are pushing the German government to get a deal with us.

As for ports. 20% of imports into Dover do not need to come through there 10% can be containerized and 10% can go to other ports.

With regard to the energy market, the gov. has been negotiating with the IEM and SEM to ensure there is regularity parity even if we leave with no deal.

I am really puzzled at the remainer idea that only the wealthy want a no deal and that conservative politicians are only in politics to feather their own nests! Why o why would anyone enter politics if they were only interested in their self and their own greed? Surely there are plenty of other professions they could have gone into that would pay considerably more - banking maybe! To suggest they want no deal so they can make money from it seems completely bonkers to me - why bother going to all that effort!

Some one up thread stated that TM wanted to deregulate everything and turn us into another Singapore - please show me where she said that.

Another poster said that they knew a Brexiter who wanted to dismantle the health service, privatize it and wasn't interested in the person who couldn't afford to pay, stating something about the church and charity!!! I'm sure there are such nutters but please be assured that they are definitely a minority and certainly not representative of the conservative party.

The Gov. has already put forward a proposal to the WTO for us to continue on the same tariffs as we are at present.

Which sounds good as long as the WTO are happy (and by WTO, doesn't every single WTO member have to OK it?). But the other issue is that WTO tariffs are based on EU imports and exports, not UK imports and exports. So the numbers will make no sense for us. The tariff on Parmesan will be based on Italy being in the EU, we don't make it. At best it's going to be totally out of whack.

And it's not just tariffs. Standards? The CE mark?

Add quite like the UK to become Singapore. Practically no homelessness because everyone lives in government-built housing. I assume TM is proposing that as well

I'd quite...

Doubletrouble
What do you think of the trickle down effect?
It legitimises the free market with minimum taxation approach as it creates more wealth for those who own property/shares/companies therefore everyone is richer (unless you’re unlucky enough to be economically unviable).

@clavinova

While NZ PM is writing a nice piece for the Telegraph, NZ is busy investing in keeping its options open by opening a new embassy in Dublin.

www.beehive.govt.nz/speech/opening-new-zealand-embassy-dublin-ireland

In the above speech Winston Peters the deputy PM says

"Our current links are fairly modest...we can do better. And we will in the years ahead as NZ companies give Ireland a closer look when considering how to manage their European operations in a post Brexit environment".

www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexiteers-vision-brexit-uk-leave-low-regulation-singapore-theresa-may-customs-union-plan-ukip-a8196891.html

Britannia Unchained

The book is written by Kwasi Kwarteng, Priti Patel, Dominic Raab, Chris Skidmore and Elizabeth Truss – five Tory MPs who were elected in May 2010 and belong to the party's Thatcherite-leaning Free Enterprise Group. The text sets out their vision for the United Kingdom's future as a leading player in the global economy, arguing that Britain needs to adopt a far-reaching form of free market economics, with fewer employment laws, and suggesting the UK should learn lessons from the business and economic practices of other countries, including Canada, Australia and the tiger economies of the Far East like China and Singapore.

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Britannia_Unchained

Liam Fox has been getting deals organized with the main countries that at present have free trade deals with the EU.

Oh my word

It's stuff like this that makes people not just assume, but know for 100% certain, that the people on here cheerleading for no-deal don't understand what it means.

If Britain leaves without a deal it will take decades to replace all those agreements.

Trying to get deals and failing.
All these magical deals may appear at some point but the disruption between here and there is so unpredictable as to be too risky. Why would anyone risk it?
Even in tbe most magically wonderful scenario, the law of unintended consequences will apply.

No deal results in the GFA being broken. That's not going to go down well.

Navy not ready to deliver medicines under no-deal Brexit: www.thetimes.co.uk/article/navy-not-ready-to-deliver-medicines-under-no-deal-brexit-5h98l2bk8

The Times is also reporting that airlines are keeping quiet about the no deal threat to 5 million air tickets. (If the EU makes a concession to keep planes flying this will exclude any new routes or new services).

Wheels are coming off now.

Lots of misunderstanding of the WTO situation here.

it's entirely between the EU and the UK and there's no third party or outside body which has to be involved or considered.

No! That is what the WTO exists for - to regulate international trade. The WTO has strict rules about trading blocs. The EU cannot continue to treat the UK as if it is a member once it has left. The Most Favoured Nation principle underpins the WTO regulations - you cannot trade preferentially with one country over another unless you have a proper trade deal. The UK loses all its preferential access to the single market.

As for 0% tariffs, Patrick Minford and his Economists for Free Trade have suggested in their highly dubious and widely discredited model that the UK can continue to trade easily by dropping all tariffs to zero percent. However his model assumes that all other countries will reciprocate this for us, which is actually highly unlikely! What's in it for them?

WTO schedules are not yet set up for the UK - several countries have objected to allowing us to roll over our current EU schedule (Australia,, New Zealand, Brazil and of course Argentina, who are not great pals of the UK).

Many countries will be keen to trade with the UK after Brexit but it will not be essential for them to do that deal immediately as they will carry on trading with the rest of the world (unless they are selling a product that is entirely dominated by the UK market - Marmite?!). They can take their time to negotiate a beneficial deal. It will be essential for the UK to make deals as soon as possible. Essentially, we will be desperate. This does not put is in a great bargaining position!

Sleight - I do believe in the 'trickle down' effect but in a corporate environment, in that I believe in encouraging investment and innovation to increase wages and job opportunities. I don't believe in this at the of the venerable.
Smellslike - your link does not suggest that TM advocates the Singapore model.

Misti - your scoffing knows no bounds! Obviously you didn't listen to Liam Fox on the Andrew Marr show where he specifically stated that he had deals ready with countries how have free trade deals with the EU at the moment. So not exactly difficult to do or time consuming bellin

"So not exactly difficult to do or time consuming bellin"
And the law of unintended consequences is suspended? And there will be no delay between crashing out and getting all lovely these deals in place? And there is no extra cost to the consumer because all businesses can absorb massive cost differences?
Fantasy thinking.

"Obviously you didn't listen to Liam Fox on the Andrew Marr show where he specifically stated that he had deals ready with countries how have free trade deals with the EU at the moment."

These would be the ones mentioned up thread, where the terms of the deal are basically rolled over from the EU deal, and with countries of little importance in terms of trade. Very much in their favour to continue under the current terms.

The fact that you put trust in the discgraced Liam "easiest deal ever" Fox shows your bias.

Any trade deal that is new take times to negotiate, shows what you know too.

Double

Asked about a report in the Financial Times that Britain would not be close to finalising most of the 40 free trade deals the EU currently has with other countries, Mr Fox told the BBC: "I hope they will be but there are not just dependent on the UK. Our side is ready.
"It's largely dependent on other whether countries believe that there will be no deal and are willing to put the work in to the preparations."

No issues there then ?

The problem with 'leaving' and 'no deal' even more so is that the UK is going to have to run like the clappers to get back to the situation we are in now, never mind the situation when a significant chunk of manufacturing and financial industry moves out.
The UK will have to find a set of lucrative activities to do that are unique.
Car manufacture is gone. In fact most manufacture will be up against other countries with cheaper wages. The ladies making garments in Bangladesh, you can't possibly undercut them and actually eat, let alone have a mortgage.
Unless you can come up with realistic options for new enterprises that will employ millions with wages sufficient to have a house and food, you really should not be proposing to leave.
Hint, the government have no clue about this.