To ask why would anyone want no deal?

[guinea36]

Watching Sunday morning political shows. A few politicians suggesting they would prefer no deal if necessary. These people are presumably intelligent and educated
Yet they believe - although I struggle to see it - that ultimately it will be better for the country economically in the long run. Just wondering what the theory is behind this belief?

www.gov.uk/government/news/ons-trade-statistics-exports-rise-by-14-billion
ONS trade stats with some good news;

London retained its position as the top tech investment destination in Europe earlier this week. According to Pitchbook and London & Partners, the capital received £1.8 billion tech investment in 2018, more than Berlin and Paris combined

That's nice. 2% rise
And all that trade covered by deals we are about to leave ........

That's nice. 2% rise
And all that trade covered by deals we are about to leave ........

Fingers crossed they come up with something - but Corbyn wants
No 10 instead.

As I hinted at, I really can't see the EU creating any problems for our energy supply if they can possibly avoid it, even in the event of no deal. Over 40% of Ireland's gas supply is via the UK, it's unthinkable that the EU would interrupt our energy supplies under those circumstances.

but Corbyn wants No 10 instead
Which he neither deserves or will get

fishes
it's unthinkable that the EU would interrupt our energy supplies under those circumstances.
You really do not understand how trade deals / WTO rules and the like operate
do you?
The EU has to obey its rules
the UK will not get treatment that breaks the rules

While that looks impressive there are a couple of factors to consider.
When the UK leaves, international trade will be hammered by tariffs for many years.
Exports probably are good at the moment because other countries are attempting to 'stockpile' and beat the rush.
There is no mention of what the orderbooks show for March onwards, what projected sales are there?
Is the simplification deliberate or accidental? Like the photo in the holiday brochure showing gorgeous beaches and a description of a luxurious hotel, which if the photographer turned around amounts to a massive building site.
It would be good to think things will work out, but he might be a lying toad fox.

Fingers crossed they come up with something - but Corbyn wants No 10 instead

I utterly loath Corbyn and wish he’d fuck off to his allotment at the earliest opportunity. This whole mess is being made worse by both the Tories and Labour putting party before country. Utter bastards.

there

I agree...self serving bastards

ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/file_import/energy_market_en_0.pdf seems to confirm that as a third party we'll still be able to use the interconnect (for a fee) but wont be able to participate in the IEM.

FishesaPlenty
Nobody is suggesting it can't be used, but the ultimate cost and then the time to make new legal agreements will leave a gap in time while they are written up.

@Ta1kinPeace and you obviously still dont understand that you dont need a trade deal to do business. The lack of a trade deal between the EU and the UK doesn't prevent them doing trade. You only need a trade deal if you want to offer one country better terms than others. If the EU and the UK want to sell each other electricity then they can just do it, just the same as we can continue to sell each other almost anything else without a trade deal, subject to NTBs etc., and if we can get the goods delivered. There's no reason for them not to agree to continue to allow the supply of power because it suits both parties and it'll be linked to the continuance of ROI gas supply anyway.

Fishes
Which countries do UK companies do business with
NOT covered by trade deals?

The risk is that a complete lack of a legal framework for doing business will be disruptive in ways that are hard to predict.

I really have no idea, the lack of one has no bearing on whether we can do business with someone in a particular country though.

If the worst comes to the worst and we have no deal on 30th March then we could have NO trade agreements with anyone. All that means is that our exports and imports may be subject to tariffs, quotas and compliance checks. I'm surprised that you seem to think that's not the case?

All that means is that our exports and imports may be subject to tariffs, quotas and compliance checks.

When you say “all that means”, it sounds like it’s not a big deal. It’s a huge deal, likely to cause significant disruption.

Literally no countries in the world trade without trade deals and there good reason for that.

All that means is that our exports and imports may be subject to tariffs

I’m assuming you’ve heard of economic sanctions. When a country (eg North Korea) has been misbehaving. One of the ways to try and improve its international outlook is to apply sanctions.
High tariffs are a way of doing that. By choosing to leave the E.U. and move to WTO terms we are choosing higher tariffs. The U.K. is basically choosing to impose economic sanctions on itself.

As of April 2016, only 15% of UK total trade was with countries that were not members of the EU and were not covered by any EU trade agreements.

But hey ho, look at the wonderful deals we’ll now be able to strike for the remaining 15% of UK trade

When you say “all that means”, it sounds like it’s not a big deal. It’s a huge deal, likely to cause significant disruption.

I take your point but i said it in the context we were discussing - the apparent belief that we can't do any trade at all unless we have a trade agreement with a country.

Literally no countries in the world trade without trade deals and there good reason for that.

But I know that! I'm just saying that we don't need a trade agreement with a particular country to be able to sell them things.

Take JCB for example. On March 30th they'll still be able to sell into the EU at 0% tariff, even if we have no trade deal with the EU.

OK think about this analogy. I once had to have some medical treatment in the UK while I wasn't resident. Now I would have liked healthcare free, but I'd LEFT so I understood I had to now pay. Crappy but whatever. So the new system was that I pay. But the NHS had no facilities to take my money. With time, notice and a run up, they could have had a system, but the system currently doesn't exist. The NHS wanted to treat me, I wanted to be treated, but the system didn't exist. It did before I LEFT but not now.

So either everyone just gives us stuff with no framework, regulation, certification agreed, new legislation, border checks, insurance... or we don't get the stuff. And there's every chance they legally can't give us stuff. Or maybe the stuff is unsafe baby food from China or hormone-injected beef from the US or something worse. Because if we check the baby food from China, we have to check the French stuff and impose the same tariffs. WTO = got to be fair.

And honestly I know next to nothing about this stuff. So maybe crossing our fingers and wishing on a star is enough. I bloody hope so.

Take JCB for example. On March 30th they'll still be able to sell into the EU at 0% tariff, even if we have no trade deal with the EU.

Only if 0% is the applicable tariff if we leave with No Deal and fall back onto WTO schedules.

Only if 0% is the applicable tariff if we leave with No Deal and fall back onto WTO schedules.

My understanding is that even if we go zero tariff for imports, no one is forcing any other country to go zero tariff with us. Or am I wrong?

Take JCB for example. On March 30th they'll still be able to sell into the EU at 0% tariff, even if we have no trade deal with the EU

Erm no. WTO tariffs are 10% for cars and car parts (not honestly sure if JCB comes under car parts and I can’t be arsed googling it).

I think mrsP is right we can choose to lower the tariffs to 0% for car parts coming in. But we can’t make other countries lower their tariffs too without actually doing a trade deal with them.

If JCB sell into the EU on WTO terms, it pays the import tariffs set by the EU on its WTO schedules.

The UK could set its tariffs to 0% but why would it? Flood the UK with cheap imports and destroy domestic producers, and remove any incentive for the RoW to make free trade agreements?

Anthony Paul Bamford, aka Baron Bamford, is chairman and managing director of JCB, worth £3.1 billion as of April 2012. Has enough money to do what the feck he likes.

Can anyone check sex and racial equality numbers at JCB?