To ask why would anyone want no deal?

[guinea36]

Watching Sunday morning political shows. A few politicians suggesting they would prefer no deal if necessary. These people are presumably intelligent and educated
Yet they believe - although I struggle to see it - that ultimately it will be better for the country economically in the long run. Just wondering what the theory is behind this belief?

I rather think its you who's the naive one. You blow every mention of a potential problem into an absolute certainty that the worst-case scenario will definitely happen. Everyone in every industry is making the necessary preparations, as far as they can. An essential, large and consolidated industry like electricity generation will be listened to by the EU and will be able to make those preparations sensibly. In this case it presumably needs the approval of a regulator. If you think the EU are likely to delay that out of spite or incompetence, even in a no deal situation, then you think much less of the EU than I do.

Of course all things can and will be sorted out, but in the event of a 'crash out' things will be a bit chaotic (massive understatement).

@Blibbyblobby Your last paragraph said it better than i managed.

You blow every mention of a potential problem into an absolute certainty that the worst-case scenario will definitely happen

This is what I expect to happen when contingency planning. No one can say for certain what will happen but nor is it sensible to hope for the best. Even Isabel Oakeshott will agree with that.

Your last sentence seems to complete misunderstand how the EU is allowed to work.

And again, no deal is OUR choice. We do not have to leave on 29th March (or at all). If we pull out without the necessaries in place it is not the responsibility of the EU to rush to our aid. They would be mad to do so.

Although £350m a week sounds like a lot. It is 0.7% of our GDP so not a lot money in the big scheme.

UK has 9.7% of the MEPs in the EU parliament. So we have quite a say.

Do you know who your MEP is? Did you know that you have more than one MEP?
www.europarl.europa.eu/unitedkingdom/en/your-meps/uk_meps.html

Have you watched the EU parliament in action? It is very different to ours. This is the latest Brexit debate
www.europarl.europa.eu/plenary/EN/vod.html?mode=chapter&vodLanguage=EN&startTime=20190116-08:39:57-447#

Everyone in every industry is making the necessary preparations, as far as they can

Yes, the opportunity cost of Brexit is already a huge drag for the UK economy even if we don't crash out.

Blibbyblobby yep if we are lucky, best case scenario, we spend a fortune and things don't get worse.

£4.2bn alone in government’s own spending, I think? Let alone the cost to businesses for their own preparations.

@Blibbyblobby Your last paragraph said it better than i managed.

The bit where i said "This is the reality of the Leave vote - far from Brexit making things better, we are spending milllions (at least) just to make sure they don't get worse"?

Although £350m a week sounds like a lot. It is 0.7% of our GDP so not a lot money in the big scheme.

And it was only ever the gross figure - it didn’t account for the rebates.

There are so many 'leave voters' screaming for a no deal and to 'bring it on' that it is obvious they haven't thought about what they are going to achieve.
No deal is not 'nothing happens' but that a lot of seemingly small things will stop which when combined will be a very large thing.
They are pulling 1 small block from the bottom of a tower of Jenga blocks, with no idea how tall the tower is.

publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201719/ldselect/ldeucom/63/6308.htm

Some stuff about the Internal Energy Market (IEM) and market coupling.

Pretty dry, but basically sharing electricity through interconnectors really, really does depend upon agreements being in place. It is not up EDF France (or any other supplier) and they don't physically control the interconnectors anyway, even if they were mad and maverick enough to start operating outside of the law.

"The Internal Energy Market (IEM) in gas and electricity has a legal basis under Article 194 TFEU. It was designed to increase efficiency by introducing competitive forces into energy markets across the EU, thereby reducing prices and improving services to consumers; and to achieve greater interconnection of markets, which would reduce the need for reserve generation capacity, thus further reducing costs.

Members of the IEM include EU Member States, plus Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein as parties to the European Economic Area (EEA) agreement. There are no participants from outside the EEA...."

"....55.Witnesses highlighted a number of particularly valuable features of the IEM. One of these was market coupling, by which IEM participants use a shared algorithm to arrange cross-border electricity trades. The Aldersgate Group told us: “Market coupling is currently estimated to be worth £100m/year to the UK because, through interconnectors, it provides trading efficiencies which match supply and demand efficiently and thus lower intermarket and transaction costs.”89 Energy UK argued that GB operators could be excluded from market coupling post-Brexit, “as there are no provisions in the texts for ‘third countries’”.90 This was borne out by His Excellency Jean-Christophe Füeg, Head of International Energy Affairs at the Swiss Federal Office of Energy, who told us that Switzerland was excluded from market coupling,91 and as a result “trade between Switzerland and the rest of Europe is handled in a suboptimal way"

Note the above was suggesting it might not be possible to continue efficient cross-border energy sharing even in the event of an orderly Brexit... let alone one where no deals were agreed at all!

Yes, there's obviously a difference between participating in the internal energy market and purchasing power through some other mechanism. Not participating in the IEM doesn't prevent us from purchasing power through the interconnect though. The EU has interconnects with other countries outside the EEA and IEM.

The EU has interconnects with other countries outside the EEA and IEM.
Who ?

Blog from S&P Global Platts (the leading independent provider of information, benchmark prices and analytics for the energy and commodities markets)

Brexit no deal is no worry for North Sea oil and UK energy sector

Economic warnings around a no-deal Brexit have reached fever pitch proportions.If Bank of England governor Mark Carney’s latest Doomsday portent comes to fruition, house prices will collapse and the streets will be choked by dole queues if the UK unceremoniously crashes out of the European Union.Certainly, the energy industry will also be affected; just don’t expect the petrol pumps to run dry, or the lights to go out on March 29 next year
Head of energy news, EMEA

blogs.platts.com/2018/09/17/brexit-no-deal-no-worry-north-sea-oil-uk-energy/

Government Guidance here;
Trading electricity if there’s no Brexit deal

www.gov.uk/government/publications/trading-electricity-if-theres-no-brexit-deal/trading-electricity-if-theres-no-brexit-deal

For me, I’m incredibly worried about Northern Ireland if we end up with No Deal. Stormont hasn’t sat for a long while now, and there’s been a car bomb today. I fear we are risking peace being shattered, and I haven’t heard any leavers that are worried about this.

I think we have all come to take peace for granted. That is dangerous.

Clavinova
And that document basically says "we have no real idea"

Neighbours? Morocco, Turkey, Albania, Ukraine etc

and governed by trade deals

of the type that the UK will no longer have ....

Clavinova, that Government advice seems to me to confirm that, best case scenario, cross border electricity trading will be more complex and less efficient in the event of a no deal (if it is possible at all). That without the current arrangements, new agreements will be needed.
And that it might not be possible, to the extent that they may need existing legal powers to maintain supply.
Its not comforting.

No Deal seems like the only way to leave. The only way we can untangle ourselves.
It's like Alexander and the Gordian Knot.

I tried to do the Rubik's cube once but it was too hard and I was shit at it. So I pulled the stickers off and stuck them on again. Job done. The Guinness Book of Records wouldn't accept my fast time though :-(

Why the hell to remoaners CONSTANTLY tell leavers they either a) didn't know what they were voting for or b) state those who say they voted on a No Deal basis are lying!?

Because it really is very hard to believe that anyone of sound mind could ever want to leave with No Deal unless they were going to profit from the pound falling and the economy crashing.

{The EU has interconnects with other countries outside the EEA and IEM.}
To then list some other countries that are interconnected, they work THROUGH the EU so even more legal issues. You are not plugging your vacuum into a different socket.

{£4.2bn alone in government’s own spending, I think? Let alone the cost to businesses for their own preparations.}
Businesses such as a decent chunk of finance, and manufacturing are already on the way to the EU as they need reliability and certifications etc. The UK will lose the tax revenue from them and they won't be coming back, they can't afford to move twice.