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Brexit

Westminstenders: At the point of collapse?

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 19/01/2019 23:30

May is in trouble. The Tory Party are in trouble.

Brexit is not in trouble, but we certainly are.

May's problem is she has no way forward.

One the one hand, the ERG will not accept anything to soften Brexit. That's an extension or Norway. Or a second ref. The story tonight emerging of Rees-Mogg as 'peacemaker' is quite the opposite. Its a thinly veiled threat saying if you do not please the ERG we will split and no longer support the PM. They will quiet simply threaten to collapse the government if May decides on that course. Their gamble will be that with the Tories ahead in the polls, they can get enough seats to enable no deal or cause enough chaos to cause accidental no deal. Thus forcing out One Nation Tories from the party.

One the other hand if May does not soften Brexit, rumour has it that 20 ministers including several cabinet, will walk. There is talk of cabinet ministers supporting a second ref and of others supporting Nick Boles proposals and demanding a free vote on the matter.

May on the other hand seemed determined to pursue plan A which is now plan B, in the form of the WA. In order to do this her plan was go for cross party talks and a compromise. The trouble is May doesn't understand what the word compromise means, because... Well see above about the two factions within the Tory Party presenting a bit of an issue to that. She felt the WA was the only way to stop the party split / stop the government collasping.

In addition to this we have Labour trying to avoid a split. Corbyn had his ridiculous starting point to cross party talks being completely impossible for May. You can't take no deal off the table if it is the table. Corbyn was essentially asking directly for a revocation or extension to A50 clause. May could not agree to that because... Well see above.

Corbyn is now talking about whipping against Grieve's amendment which sort to create a cross party consensus. Bizarrely grieves suggestion seemed to be for a minority rather than majority which rather undermined it, by Corbyn's real motivation is about his power, preventing a centre consensus and possible splits in the Labour Party.

Corbyn merely wants to be obstructive, and block everything now as he thinks May and the Conservative Party are doomed to fail and the government will fail. And arguably this is a good and sensible calculation as things stand.

May's next Meaningful vote is due on the 29th Jan. But 28th Feb is pencilled in for a general election. Meaning it would have to be called by Thursday this week.

Will it happen?

We find out, not on this thread, but the next one... Or maybe even the one after that!

PS there was a bomb in Londonderry. And there's talk of a bilateral treaty with Ireland (a euphemisms for renegotiating the GFA).

Brexit was always ultimately about NI.

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umpteennamechanges · 20/01/2019 13:12

Thanks, will add them to my Amazon basket (and watch the film if I can find it on iTunes/Netflix)

umpteennamechanges · 20/01/2019 13:12

From Robert Peston

"We are witnessing a titanic struggle between the executive - personified by the prime minister - and parliament.

That much is true.

But is this anti-democratic or grotesquely unconstitutional or a coup or an attempt by a handful of arrogant MPs to shamelessly refuse to implement the revealed will of the British people that the UK should leave the European Union?

Because today you will hear and read the widespread charge of treachery against backbench Tories like Dominic Grieve, Nick Boles, Nicky Morgan, Sir Oliver Letwin and Dame Caroline Spelman - for daring to seek a single day of Commons business shaped by MPs and not by the executive, so MPs can reveal their Brexit preference.

But surely the accusation of infamy is bizarre.

Here is why.

First, leaving the EU is the most important decision this country has taken in decades, whose ramifications on our prosperity, security and influence in the world will resonate for many more decades.

Second, the prime minister's plan to leave the EU was not just resoundingly defeated by MPs, it was defeated by a margin of historic proportions - and those most responsible for her defeat are the Tory Brexit MPs who (along with some close to the PM) are now accusing the Grieveses, Boleses and Letwins of betraying democracy and the PM, even though Boles, Letwin, Spelman, Morgan et al (though not Grieves) actually backed the PMs Brexit plan.

Third, throughout most of British history, a defeat of such momentous importance for the nation and a government would have been followed in short order probably by a general election and failing that by the resignation of a prime minister.

Neither has happened, partly because of the legacy of the last prime minister David Cameron whose Fixed Term Parliament Act makes it almost impossible for MPs to throw out a failing government and partly because those same outraged Tory Brexiters launched a premature coup before Christmas against the PM - which means that she is now safe in office for another year.

So the normal valves in the British constitution that let pressure out of the system when there is an irreconcileable conflict between the executive and the legislature are not functioning properly.

But the genius of the British constitution is its adaptability.

All the Boleses, Letwins and Greiveses are doing - with the help of the clerks of the Commons - is find another valve.

The point is that right now it is unclear whether the PM has the authority to get any version of Brexit through the Commons.

So is it really so scandalous for Tory and Labour backbenchers to join forces to express their collective will - which could take the form of binding legislation or an indicative motion - that a no-deal Brexit should be taken off the table, given that they take the view that a no-deal Brexit would wreak havoc to this country's prosperity and security?

The PM may beg to differ. But in a democracy, differences on an issue of such magnitude are quite properly debated and resolved by elected representatives, not ruled as improper by a threatened executive.

For the avoidance of doubt, even if the Boleses and Letwins have their day, it is by no means certain that the EU would acquiesce as and when the MPs force the PM to sue for a delay to the moment the UK leaves the EU - especially if that delay is simply so that the UK could have more time agonising about what kind of Brexit it may or may not want, rather than for a definable express purpose (like a referendum or a general election).

There is also a hilarious paradox here, which those in Downing Street who see Boles, Letwin and Grieves as the enemy have seemingly failed to notice.

The Brexiter rebels have made it plain they would rather have a no-deal Brexit than the prime minister's version of Brexit. But as Jacob Rees-Mogg confirms in the Mail on Sunday only today, they would rather have May's Brexit to no Brexit at all.

So the inescapable logic of what Rees-Mogg says is that if Boles, Letwin and Co were to succeed in taking no deal off the table, then Rees-Mogg and his Brexiter allies would feel compelled to back the PM's reworked Brexit - and just maybe her deal would be endorsed by the Commons, at the very last.

For what it's worth, when I speak with the likes of Letwin, Boles and Grieves, one of their constant refrains is whether the PM is capable of understanding who her real friends may actually be."

Apileofballyhoo · 20/01/2019 13:13

There was a story about a couple of Irish lads cycling the border that was very revealing. I think it was on the BBC website. It was a month or so back.

Two men from the UK I believe, one English and one British-Irish or Irish-British or British but Irish British or Northern Irish...

www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/travel/ireland/cycling-the-border-2018-at-least-yous-are-prods-you-f-kers-1.3727569%3fmode=amp

ReggieKrayDoYouKnowMyName · 20/01/2019 13:18

I feel like there’s no end to all of this. I have lurked on these threads and have seen predictions come to pass. Excuse me if this has been asked but what is the source for this potentially Feb 28th GE?

SusanWalker · 20/01/2019 13:30

Apparently Wetherspoons have been mailshotting their propaganda magazine to households. Someone suggested complaining to the board as apparently the shareholders are getting a bit annoyed with Tims brexit stuff now.

Although I do have to say that I once heard him say about a no deal brexit 'if I'm wrong I'm going to look like a complete fool' which did give me a modicum of respect for him as most brexiteers will never admit they might be wrong.

LonelyandTiredandLow · 20/01/2019 13:32

Yes I had a Wetherspoons mag this week. Wasb in my house for 5 seconds before binned. He does realise those imports won't be as cheap on WTO?

PerverseConverse · 20/01/2019 13:40

That cycling article was hard reading. I felt like I'd gone back in time with the views reported.

Mrsr8 · 20/01/2019 13:49

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SusanWalker · 20/01/2019 13:54

We always end up at bloody wetherspoons. DS likes it because it's the same no matter where you go and he can have the exact same burger anywhere. It's an autism thing with him.

Mrsr8 · 20/01/2019 13:58

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Mrsr8 · 20/01/2019 14:01

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SusanWalker · 20/01/2019 14:01

Yes I wouldn't eat there if I was in my own. That is true.

Ta1kinPeace · 20/01/2019 14:01

Why do so many people want NO DEAL?
Because its the easy option.
People are lazy and always take the easy option.
If a deal is hard
no deal is easy
so lets do easy
and then Brexit will be off the news
except of course it wont

borntobequiet · 20/01/2019 14:07

Possibly a bit late but looking back to the Irish Rebellion gives an idea of how far back these divisions - not always along lines that one might expect from a modern perspective - go.
I’m a bit ashamed to say that I only started reading up about this after reading Patrick O’Brian’s (an Englishman really AFAIK) novels.
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_Rebellion_of_1798

ThereWillBeAdequateFood · 20/01/2019 14:07

Is it very cheap

I think so, but I haven’t been in one for years and have no plans to.

Totally agree with ta1k no deal sounds easy peasy. We walk away and keep £39 billion quid. What’s not to like?

Moussemoose · 20/01/2019 14:14

Cheap beer.

Good beer.

Chips.

What's not to like?

Mrsr8 · 20/01/2019 14:18

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Message withdrawn at poster's request.

PerverseConverse · 20/01/2019 14:18

www.history.co.uk/history-of-the-northern-ireland-conflict

I found this an interesting read. Basically it all stems from Henry VIII.

borntobequiet · 20/01/2019 14:26

Bill Bryson once observed, in the context of (I think) a miserable meal in some miserable place, that it should be taken over by Wetherspoons where a working man (sic) could at least get halfway decent food and drink in comfortable surroundings at a reasonable price. That’s the reason for its success.
I used to quite enjoy an occasional Wetherspoons breakfast in our local one, the veggie option was particularly good. We used to go for breakfast work team meetings. I don’t go any more.

PerverseConverse · 20/01/2019 14:33

I want pub chips now!

I am again dealing it's the stress by baking. Today we have gingerbread biscuits

SusanWalker · 20/01/2019 14:33

I would love to know how many of these far right nutjobs espousing Christian values and a return to a Christian state actually go to church on a regular basis and are actually practising christians. Not many if any i should think. We all know it's a gloss for the misogynistic, racist, islamaphobic and homophobic views they actually hold.

Perhaps the archbishop needs to stand up and say not in my name.

Moussemoose · 20/01/2019 14:34

But, but, but

Cheap beer. Nice beer. Cheap, nice beer.

I really am that shallow.

pointythings · 20/01/2019 14:35

Chocolate cake and gluten free banana and fudge chink muffins here. It's DD1's 18th. We're working towards all 3 of us beign able to get out of the UK. My cousin and her DH (from NI) fly out to NZ today to start a Brexit-free new life. I envy them.

Clavinova · 20/01/2019 14:38

I don't think I've ever been to a Wetherspoons - but according to Quietrebel's link they are going to stock the same wines as Waitrose.

New trade agreement with Australia last night

Australia and Britain have signed a new bilateral Wine Agreement and Mutual Recognition Agreement overnight in London, which will help ensure the continued flow of trade post-Brexit

These agreements provide assurances to Australian exporters that they will be able to get their goods into the UK post-Brexit, whether it be wine, medical devices or automotive parts, without additional trade barriers or regulations

They are a significant and necessary step in our post-Brexit preparations, where we want to minimise disruptions to trade flows and provide as much certainty to Australian exporters as we can

On top of these, we’re committed to securing a comprehensive free trade agreement with the UK as soon as they are in a position to do so, which will even further boost trade flows between our two countries

Minister for Agriculture David Littleproud said nearly a third of our exported wine went to the UK last year

www.smh.com.au/national/new-trade-agreements-secure-australian-exports-to-britain-post-brexit-20190119-p50sf3.html

Corker17 · 20/01/2019 14:38

I’ve been lurking on here for a few months, I was born in Belfast but family moved to Dublin when I was 11. I still have family living in Belfast and we were all affected by the Troubles growing up. Going back to those times would be disastrous.

I read this book a few years ago and recommend it for a full history of how we all ended up where we are. www.amazon.co.uk/Ireland-Thomas-Bartlett/dp/1107422345/ref=mp_s_a_1_1?ref=plSrch&keywords=thomas+bartlett%2C+ireland+a+history&dpPl=1&dpID=51etcDzPnpL&pi=AC_SX236_SY340_QL65&tag=mumsnetforum-21&ie=UTF8&qid=1547994310&sr=8-1

I have family in England so am worried about about how Brexit will affect them.

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