Westminstenders: At the point of collapse?

[RedToothBrush]

May is in trouble. The Tory Party are in trouble.

Brexit is not in trouble, but we certainly are.

May's problem is she has no way forward.

One the one hand, the ERG will not accept anything to soften Brexit. That's an extension or Norway. Or a second ref. The story tonight emerging of Rees-Mogg as 'peacemaker' is quite the opposite. Its a thinly veiled threat saying if you do not please the ERG we will split and no longer support the PM. They will quiet simply threaten to collapse the government if May decides on that course. Their gamble will be that with the Tories ahead in the polls, they can get enough seats to enable no deal or cause enough chaos to cause accidental no deal. Thus forcing out One Nation Tories from the party.

One the other hand if May does not soften Brexit, rumour has it that 20 ministers including several cabinet, will walk. There is talk of cabinet ministers supporting a second ref and of others supporting Nick Boles proposals and demanding a free vote on the matter.

May on the other hand seemed determined to pursue plan A which is now plan B, in the form of the WA. In order to do this her plan was go for cross party talks and a compromise. The trouble is May doesn't understand what the word compromise means, because... Well see above about the two factions within the Tory Party presenting a bit of an issue to that. She felt the WA was the only way to stop the party split / stop the government collasping.

In addition to this we have Labour trying to avoid a split. Corbyn had his ridiculous starting point to cross party talks being completely impossible for May. You can't take no deal off the table if it is the table. Corbyn was essentially asking directly for a revocation or extension to A50 clause. May could not agree to that because... Well see above.

Corbyn is now talking about whipping against Grieve's amendment which sort to create a cross party consensus. Bizarrely grieves suggestion seemed to be for a minority rather than majority which rather undermined it, by Corbyn's real motivation is about his power, preventing a centre consensus and possible splits in the Labour Party.

Corbyn merely wants to be obstructive, and block everything now as he thinks May and the Conservative Party are doomed to fail and the government will fail. And arguably this is a good and sensible calculation as things stand.

May's next Meaningful vote is due on the 29th Jan. But 28th Feb is pencilled in for a general election. Meaning it would have to be called by Thursday this week.

Will it happen?

We find out, not on this thread, but the next one... Or maybe even the one after that!

PS there was a bomb in Londonderry. And there's talk of a bilateral treaty with Ireland (a euphemisms for renegotiating the GFA).

Brexit was always ultimately about NI.

"Anyone who already paid will have their fee reimbursed."

First make harsh terms, then undo some of them and compensate
How to maximise admin costs, anxiety, stress ...

• I presume that was the aim ?

NI: two controlled explosions in one van, expecting further controlled explosions on the second van.

Yup

She can make quite sensible statements ... until Arlene phones her up to tug sharply at her choke collar

BigChocFrenzy - I was quoting Theresa May when she said a PV would risk social cohesion and that the people have to be listened to.

Going back to the discussion earlier in this thread about Scottish police being sent to NI and mention was made of police having been needed in George Square after the Indyref result. It is important to point out (as the poster who mentioned it will have known but others might not) is that the trouble that required police intervention came from the "winning side"

I actually went to the Square the night of the result and there was, despite losing, still a fantastic atmosphere (as there had been on the night before the Indyref), with just a few Neanderthals bedecked in Union flags in one corner. We left before their numbers increased and they started fomenting aggression.

So May chapter 3, verse 1, seems to pretty much contradict verse 2.

If you have no - and never had any - intention of re-opening the Belfast agreement, then there's precious little to assuage the DUP with

Justine Greening: You've run out of road
May: I will lie down in the dirt and deliver more road through difficult wishful thinking

I'm confused about where the good bit in that speech was. This was supposed to be her plan B, but all it has confirmed is that nothing has changed. She is still holding her red lines, she is still claiming there is some possibility that the EU27 will amend the backstop when we know this is never going to happen, and she is still obsessed with secrecy and decision making behind closed doors.

What's the point in secret meeting and involving committees if all she is going to do is tell them she won't compromise and keep spinning the same line.

The removal of the fee for settled status applications is all very nice but she's only doing it in the hope we will all get distracted and ignore the actual message in the speech, which is that she has not shifted one iota and is as delusional as ever.

It is point 5 we have to watch.

All of it smacks of her trying to sound generous and wanting compliance in return, for really minor and obvious things she should have had in place at the start. Now though she can look benevolent .

Caecillius is in via along with canis. Surely?

Vague memories of very basic latin as part of Classics GCSE .

Sir Vince Cable, the Lib Dem leader, says the MoD put 3,500 troops on standby for a no-deal Brexit at the end of last week. What would their rules of engagement be if they have to deal with disturbances?

May says the plan would be to use these troops to replace others, for example on guard duty.

so
The troops who were doing guard duty and have now been replaced, what would their rules of engagement be?

Pompeii - best seen nothing the height of summer (scorching and jot much shade) or they do night tours! Best trip I've done in years and long awaited!

@prettybird - yes sorry I should have made that clearer in my post that the Glesga Polis were standing in the sidelines when the losing side were gathered but appeared full force when the 'Winners' decided to start flag waving

Watching TMay on telly now. She's wounded and has lost much of her arrogance. Or she's a good actor.

Otherwise, a teeny tiny step forward in terms of May not spouting complete bollocks

Red I know it’s not funny really but had to laugh at that. Very very nervous laughter though.

Probably the BAE news making her seem wounded...army will be pissed.

Following the live updates because DP is watching tv www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-live-update-theresa-may-deal-statement-speech-parliament-corbyn-labour-conservatives-dup-a8738231.html#post-1152395961

I'm so about the "reassurances" for EU folk here. Good people felt so unwelcome they packed up their British born kids and left.

The obvious response to May's "answer" that the troops will just be required to "guard things" (or was it places?), is why will those extra places need up be guarded and against whom?

Susan - I’m happy to help with any Latin learning queries, whether relating to the location of Caecilus or not. It is actually something I can do

They just don't understand the concept of a backstop. You can't time stop it, you have an obligation to sort out a deal that will never lead to it being implicated.

ie Do your Fecking jobs.

I'm so about the "reassurances" for EU folk here

In another thread on this forum, someone has just posted how £65 is nothing for registering ... (demonstrating that Brexiteers really are a bit slow).

A competent anodyne speech that told us .... nothing new about where we are heading

I hope she is saving that, to make concessions when she actually starts discussing with Labour / both sets of backbenchers against No Deal

a bit slow ... or well minted

Maybe I am thick - but how will going to Brussels and talking about the backstop change anything?

I must be thick too, mother, because I can't see how either.

Its a fairly obvious move to call on the armed services/security forces if there is a risk of unrest I'd have thought. Colour me unsurprised.