Westminstenders: At the point of collapse?

[RedToothBrush]

May is in trouble. The Tory Party are in trouble.

Brexit is not in trouble, but we certainly are.

May's problem is she has no way forward.

One the one hand, the ERG will not accept anything to soften Brexit. That's an extension or Norway. Or a second ref. The story tonight emerging of Rees-Mogg as 'peacemaker' is quite the opposite. Its a thinly veiled threat saying if you do not please the ERG we will split and no longer support the PM. They will quiet simply threaten to collapse the government if May decides on that course. Their gamble will be that with the Tories ahead in the polls, they can get enough seats to enable no deal or cause enough chaos to cause accidental no deal. Thus forcing out One Nation Tories from the party.

One the other hand if May does not soften Brexit, rumour has it that 20 ministers including several cabinet, will walk. There is talk of cabinet ministers supporting a second ref and of others supporting Nick Boles proposals and demanding a free vote on the matter.

May on the other hand seemed determined to pursue plan A which is now plan B, in the form of the WA. In order to do this her plan was go for cross party talks and a compromise. The trouble is May doesn't understand what the word compromise means, because... Well see above about the two factions within the Tory Party presenting a bit of an issue to that. She felt the WA was the only way to stop the party split / stop the government collasping.

In addition to this we have Labour trying to avoid a split. Corbyn had his ridiculous starting point to cross party talks being completely impossible for May. You can't take no deal off the table if it is the table. Corbyn was essentially asking directly for a revocation or extension to A50 clause. May could not agree to that because... Well see above.

Corbyn is now talking about whipping against Grieve's amendment which sort to create a cross party consensus. Bizarrely grieves suggestion seemed to be for a minority rather than majority which rather undermined it, by Corbyn's real motivation is about his power, preventing a centre consensus and possible splits in the Labour Party.

Corbyn merely wants to be obstructive, and block everything now as he thinks May and the Conservative Party are doomed to fail and the government will fail. And arguably this is a good and sensible calculation as things stand.

May's next Meaningful vote is due on the 29th Jan. But 28th Feb is pencilled in for a general election. Meaning it would have to be called by Thursday this week.

Will it happen?

We find out, not on this thread, but the next one... Or maybe even the one after that!

PS there was a bomb in Londonderry. And there's talk of a bilateral treaty with Ireland (a euphemisms for renegotiating the GFA).

Brexit was always ultimately about NI.

I am slowly amassing the first three sets of books of the Cambridge latin course

Were they the coloured ones ... Orange, Blue, Green ?

Caecilius, Cerberus ?

Ah, find memories. Although the use if A,B,C,D and E forms confused my DM who learned Nominative, Genitive, Ablative ...

Is she really going on about the next phase?

Yes Caecilius. I did two years of latin at school and couldn't get on with it at all. But I think that was because I was put in a class where most had been to prep school and had already done some latin so the teacher rushed through the first bits and then I was lost and couldn't catch up. I went on to do languages at uni and feel like this was the one that got away.

She is parroting engage enagage engage a lot. Two years ago that would have been great. But with two months to go....??!

Very interesting, red
Many commentators have claimed that Cameron expected the LDems to save him from his referendum promise
but that's the first credible eye witness statement

Many Brexiters in particular have claimed Cameron never meant to keep the promise, but was caught out by his win

Oliver's rejection on the report is on very spurious grounds:
that Caneron never said this in any interview at the time ! 😂
Of course he wouldn't - the whole purpose was to con the Tory Brexiters, so he could hardly admit this to them directly, or in broadcast interviews ! 😂

Cameron may not have realised quite how badly he had buggered his former coalition partners, or the consequent Tory gains in seats.

Cameron was insanely reckless of course, if he was betting on not losing, with an FPTP system where a small swimg can mean a significant change in seats.
A gamble with the future of the country for decades, entirely for party political reasons.

It would be different if he had genuinely believed in Brexit, but he clearly expected it would be a disaster, which is why he ran away.

Mark Francois this morning on Sky's "All Out Politics" finished his appearance by actually saying that "Remainers just have to suck it up"

It doesn't reflect well on the character of Leavers (who, by now, are demographically the minority, even if no one who voted and is still alive has changed their mind) that to not Brexit or to ask them again "risks social cohesion" - yet no-one ever suggests that Remainers will riot or risk social cohesion.

prettybird I saw that, he basically said we won, suck it up. Some people really don't deserve to be MPs.

It is unfair to say leavers would turn to violence:

My NE family as as hardcore Brexity as you could ever find:
rejecting any talk of problems with "Remoaners" etc

However, there is not the slightest chance they would turn violent
They are all respectable folk

May's speech

Ian Dunt @IanDunt
6 key issues.

1: Ruling out no-deal. "Right to rule out no-deal is for this House to approve a deal. Only other guaranteed way is to revoke A50."

Or we could extend A50. She says EU won't do that unless there is a plan. She says that argument we should revoke without a deal would go against referendum result.

2: People's Vote. May again repeats her opposition, although somewhat milder than usual. Says it would require extension of A50. It could "damage social cohesion".

May says no majority in Commons for this option.

3: Concern about backstop. She confirms the govt "will never open the Belfast agreement. I have never considered doing so."

She is going to talk to DUP and others to see how to meet obligations to people of Northern Ireland and Ireland without or with different backstop.

4: Future relationship. Says she will seek input from wide range of voices outside govt and especially parliament. "It's my responsibility to listen to legitimate concerns of colleagues in forming future partnership." Select committees to be brought in too.

Admits parliament feels left out. Says confidential committee sessions will give MPs up to date information without undermining govt's negotiating position.

5: MPs raise strong views that they want environment and worker right protection. May will provide guarantee that they won't be eroded. This will take the form of an amendment.

6 Concerns about EU citizens in UK and UK citizens in EU. She cites the @the3million by name. May confirms £65 charge will be scrapped.

Anyone who already paid will have their fee reimbursed.

1 & 2 yeah fair enough
3 first half good second half utter nonsense
4 oh so you realise your mistake so far, of course this could change easily with a new PM or when May gets pissed off at them not doing what she wantd
5 Here's a bone for you Labour. Please take it. I'm desparate
6 Should never have happened in the first place

Corbyn now talking about May needing to remove a red line and accusing her cross party talks as a PR stunt.

It's only the Tommy Robinson fringe;
they only have a few thousand in the country who would actually turn up for anything
and only then if he is present

Ian Dunt @IanDunt
No caveats: That is good work by the prime minister. Credit where it is due.

Agree with Ian. The speech is decent and welcome. Its just the stuff about the DUP and getting movement on the backstop is silly.

Otherwise, a teeny tiny step forward in terms of May not spouting complete bollocks.

Esther Webber @estwebber
In an exchange in the Lords on the situation in Zimbabwe earlier, crossbencher Lord Palmer asked if the government had considered "recolonising Zimbabwe" !!??

ARRRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

She's still calling it the Belfast Agreement, then.

She says, in future, minister will brief select committees in confidence so that what they say does not undermine the government’s negotiating position.

Plan B is secret?

Her negotiating position is laying on the floor in a suicide vest threatening to take out everyone unless she gets her way.

First impression of that speech is that it's "fuck you everyone " (cue maniacal laughter)

She's still calling it the Belfast Agreement, then.

To be fair, I think as far as HMG is concerned it's always been that ?

I don't understand how she could be so cloth-eared about the 3.5 million

If only she had given these guarantees in the first place, they would have felt much more secure
we wouldn't be haemhorraging valuable E27 manpower
... and the E27 govts and EP wouldn't be quite so disgusted with her

It certainly wasn't about protecting UK expats:
the EU wanted to retain the same rights as they have now - it was May who wanted to reduce those rights

Her reflex seems to be to go straight to "hostile environment" whenever she considers a (non-Anglosphere) furrin in the UK

Is it a good speech considering we're two months away from leaving?

I can't see much of a kick off with a PV.

Some kick off with a straight revoke but the appetite just isn't really there.

Years of moaning about how shit everything is and how the gov never listen? Sure bet.

^Cambridge latin course."

Is Caecilius still in horto? Engrained in my brain that is.

I was taught Latin (and RE I think) by one of the authors (editors?) of the course. Nasty, vicious, cunt of a man he was.

red WTF: please reassure me that Lord Palmer taking the proverbial ?

They are waving the fee for settled status. Will they reimburse my friends who have just paid?!

Surely we should have been doing this 2 years ago! WTF have they been doing all this time?

It very much feels like too little too late.

@OhYouBadBadKitten they said that they will reimburse anybody who had already paid

thats good - thanks! This is a total farce though.

It seemed a perfectly good speech for two months after A50.

For two months before exit day, it is crap. "We can tell you what we want or you won't give it to us" FFS grown up woman.