Westminstenders: At the point of collapse?

[RedToothBrush]

May is in trouble. The Tory Party are in trouble.

Brexit is not in trouble, but we certainly are.

May's problem is she has no way forward.

One the one hand, the ERG will not accept anything to soften Brexit. That's an extension or Norway. Or a second ref. The story tonight emerging of Rees-Mogg as 'peacemaker' is quite the opposite. Its a thinly veiled threat saying if you do not please the ERG we will split and no longer support the PM. They will quiet simply threaten to collapse the government if May decides on that course. Their gamble will be that with the Tories ahead in the polls, they can get enough seats to enable no deal or cause enough chaos to cause accidental no deal. Thus forcing out One Nation Tories from the party.

One the other hand if May does not soften Brexit, rumour has it that 20 ministers including several cabinet, will walk. There is talk of cabinet ministers supporting a second ref and of others supporting Nick Boles proposals and demanding a free vote on the matter.

May on the other hand seemed determined to pursue plan A which is now plan B, in the form of the WA. In order to do this her plan was go for cross party talks and a compromise. The trouble is May doesn't understand what the word compromise means, because... Well see above about the two factions within the Tory Party presenting a bit of an issue to that. She felt the WA was the only way to stop the party split / stop the government collasping.

In addition to this we have Labour trying to avoid a split. Corbyn had his ridiculous starting point to cross party talks being completely impossible for May. You can't take no deal off the table if it is the table. Corbyn was essentially asking directly for a revocation or extension to A50 clause. May could not agree to that because... Well see above.

Corbyn is now talking about whipping against Grieve's amendment which sort to create a cross party consensus. Bizarrely grieves suggestion seemed to be for a minority rather than majority which rather undermined it, by Corbyn's real motivation is about his power, preventing a centre consensus and possible splits in the Labour Party.

Corbyn merely wants to be obstructive, and block everything now as he thinks May and the Conservative Party are doomed to fail and the government will fail. And arguably this is a good and sensible calculation as things stand.

May's next Meaningful vote is due on the 29th Jan. But 28th Feb is pencilled in for a general election. Meaning it would have to be called by Thursday this week.

Will it happen?

We find out, not on this thread, but the next one... Or maybe even the one after that!

PS there was a bomb in Londonderry. And there's talk of a bilateral treaty with Ireland (a euphemisms for renegotiating the GFA).

Brexit was always ultimately about NI.

Also, haulage firms may refuse to transport goods if they are unsure of getting their vehicles back from the logjam at either end

Unlikely, if they're refusing loads the vehicle's not earning. It costs about £250 to leave a newish artic and driver standing for the day. Unless there's a lucrative source of alternative work suddenly becoming available the industry will just do what it can and price jobs appropriately for the time taken. Having said that, a large proportion of cross-channel ferry freight isn't currently carried by UK hauliers anyway and, as you say, some European haulage companies may well want to avoid the UK - of course it's much easier to avoid getting involved in delivering to an island on the edge of the EU if you can work throughout the whole of Europe. If there's a shortage of EU hauliers willing to deliver here then there's also a shortage of capacity to deliver from the UK to the EU.

I suspect out of the EU, the UK will water down or abolish any restrictions on driving in the UK ...

Transport Act 1968 is still on the statute for when a vehicle falls outside EU rules. Over the years various transport activities and classes of vehicles have slowly been subjected to EU regs and removed from the GB regs but there's never been any attempt to abolish the domestic regs. I believe we exported our enthusiasm for restricting drivers' hours to the EU, rather than vice versa and EU regs were originally based on GB regs (it was before my time and I've no way of checking but that's my understanding).

BCF

Thanks - that was my understanding, but it's nice to check your working sometimes.

I believe we exported our enthusiasm for restricting drivers' hours to the EU, rather than vice versa and EU regs were originally based on GB regs (it was before my time and I've no way of checking but that's my understanding).

But ! But ! But ! Please Miss, that Mr. Farage said we only ever take rules from the EU. Please Miss.

Hesta The main concessions started over NI:
Sticking to the pure rules, they should never have been allowed SM & CU etc, because the SM is restricted to EEA membership
That is entirely a concession for this special case, to keep the NI border frcitionless

It can just about be justified under WTO rules because NI is such a tiny % of the EU economy and because there is generally world-wide sympathy for ireland in avoiding reigniting the troubles.

Cinsequently, this produced a further concession, for GB only - amazing that May didn't trumper this victory much louder ! -
in allowing GB to be in the CU and most SM trade benefits, to enjoy near frictionless trade, without FOM
This was to minimise barriers between Ni and GB, to help May re the DUP

May has stopped FOM and got as near frictionless trade as possible - JIT firms could live with that

Additional concessions were in not bringing in Gibraltar, as Spain would have liked:
When Spain joined the EU, the UK was already a member, so Spain was forced to suck up concessions on Gib.
Now they are a member and the UK is leaving, they wanted their own concessions
However, they were persuaded to drop these.

Then several EU countries with affected fishing industries were persuaded not to demand what they see as their historical fishing rights.

So, this WA contains the absolute limit of all the concessions that Barnier was allowed to make and there have been grumbles about this from some E27 govts and MEPs

Just reading Leona O'Neill's twitter. I hope the people who got hijacked are being seen to, must have been a very scary experience when you're just going about your day.

if the UK allows higher hours, then that settles the question of whether UK drivers will be allowed to take their goods from the Channel to their final E27 destination.

It doesn't, if it's an international journey to the EU (in a goods vehicle or combination over 3500kg mgw) then currently it's subject to EU drivers' hours. If we leave the EU then trucks on a journey between the UK and the EU will instead be covered by AETR regulations - which have the same effect as EU drivers' hours.

The UK will be free to set their own drivers' hours rules on domestic journeys but not on international journeys.

I wonder at what point some people will start to suspect that the failure to conclude any sort of deal must point to a hidden agenda which isn't being satisfied ?

Remember the minister who let slip that - despite it being poo-poohed very loudly at the start - found themselves stating that PIP hadn't saved any money, and being pulled up as the committee noted that didn't matter since it was never meant to ??????

While DWP issues are in play, the underhand removal of pension credits from married couples slipped out didn't it ?

An important bit from my post was omitted in the various quotes of it:

"Also, haulage firms may refuse to transport goods if they are unsure of getting their vehicles back from the logjam at either end, at least not without hefty contingency fees on top"

They presumably won't refuse profitable business, but if their trucks are being delayed several hours, or even a couple of days,
then I'd expect them to demand higher fees, or contingency fees in the contract, to avoid losing money.

Hence higher prices for the consumer

I should have said that if the UK pulls out of all regs in a No Deal emergency, not just EU regs (i.e. AETR regs too)
then the EU would not allow UK goods drivers to make journey on their territory.

Currently, I'm not confident that the Uk govt would respect any regs that get in its way.

Some hardcore No Dealers are demanding the UK reject all laws not made by Westminster
e.g. my NE family who just reply "Remoaner" at any attempt to explain that leaving the EU doesn't mean the end to obeying "foreign" i.e. international laws.
Bitter arguments with them and others like them.

RNorth has a good analogy with his "double coffin lid" to describe how many EU laws are in fact just codifying laws laid down by other international bodies
So, leaving the EU doesn't mean leaving no longer being bound by those laws.

Yes, it's just part of pricing a journey or contract. Anybody sensible already charges a premium for Switzerland, Turkey, Serbia etc. to allow for border hold-ups - but of course there's nothing like the volume of goods going to those destinations as there is between UK and EU.

RNorth has a good analogy with his "double coffin lid" to describe how many EU laws are in fact just codifying laws laid down by other international bodies

With the UK then gold-plating those.

Smoking ban, anyone ?

EU on no deal

Transport

The Commission has today adopted two measures that will avoid full interruption of air traffic between the EU and the UK in the event of no deal. These measures will only ensure basic connectivity and in no means replicate the significant advantages of membership of the Single European Sky. This is subject to the UK conferring equivalent rights to EU air carriers, as well as the UK ensuring conditions of fair competition.

A proposal for a Regulation to ensure temporarily (for 12 months) the provision of certain air services between the UK and the EU.
A proposal for a Regulation to extend temporarily (for 9 months) the validity of certain aviation safety licences.
The Commission has also adopted a proposal for a Regulation to allow UK operators to temporarily (nine months) carry goods into the EU, provided the UK confers equivalent rights to EU road haulage operators and subject to fair competition conditions.

Customs and the export of goods

In a no deal scenario, all relevant EU legislation on the importation and exportation of goods will apply to goods moving between the EU and the UK. The Commission has today adopted the following technical measures:

A Delegated Regulation to include the seas surrounding the UK in the provisions on time-limits within which entry summary declarations and pre-departure declarations have to be lodged prior to leaving or entering the Union's customs territory.
A proposal for a Regulation to add the UK to the list of countries for which a general authorisation to export dual use items is valid throughout the EU.
It is essential, however, that Member States take all the necessary steps to be in a position to apply the Union Customs Code and the relevant rules regarding indirect taxation in relation to the United Kingdom.

europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-18-6851_en.htm

DGR I can smoke in a pub in Austria.

Well, my particular family are firm climate change sceptics and want all environmental regs to be dumped
Snowflake mc issues, the environment

So,
e.g. "we want our old lightbulbs back"

and no recycling any more, just send it all to some v poor country who'll be "grateful for the money and not so particular"

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/2ab6d1f0-1d09-11e9-9fac-490c95b1919e
Navy not ready to deliver medicines under no-deal Brexit

Matt Hancock, the health secretary, has asked for the Navy to help with the delivery of medicines if there is a no-deal Brexit.

However, the Navy has warned that it will take up to a year to refit its ships to allow sufficient numbers of crew to travel alongside the cargo, meaning that they will not be ready in time for Brexit day on March 29.

So we can't transport in medicines via road because of the gridlock thanks to the customs issues

We can't fly the medicines because of the sheer quantity of medicines.

And the navy can't ship in medicines because its ships don't have the capacity to carry them and the crew needed to go with them.

We can't bring in the medicines via ship at the new port at Ramsgate because the port won't be ready in time.

But there will be no shortages of medicines as we have bought lots of brand spanking new fridges and there are currently no problems with supplies, even though people have been told to get their prescriptions a week early as pharmacies haven't been able to fulfil them immediately as normal.

Oh and the referendum was an accident all along

www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/david-cameron/news/101255/david-cameron-told-donald
David Cameron told Donald Tusk EU referendum would not happen because Tories would not get a majority

David Cameron told a top EU chief there was “no risk” of the Brexit referendum taking place because the Conservatives would not win a majority in the 2015 election, it has been revealed.

You fucked that one up Dave.

bigchoc see another reason why you want to Germany now

The EU contingency plan statement
"all relevant EU legislation on the importation and exportation of goods will apply to goods moving between the EU and the UK."

I assumed that to mean that, although UK goods would be allowed in,
they'd be subject to the same checks / NTBs as those of any other 3rd country with whom the EU has no deal,
BUT has a reasonable confidence in comparable standards, at least in those first 12 months

However, I'm unclear about UK food / meat / agricultural exports to the EU:

Would we remain in the EU databases for that period, or be automatically deleted on Brexit Day ?
That's v important imo:

Months before those contingency plans,
R North was blogging that all UK food exports would be banned for at least 6 months after No Deal,
because it would take at least that long to get a new 3rd country into all the databases.

So, would our food exports in those 9-12 months just be subject to customs, Rules of Original etc and, most resource-consuming of all, phytosanitary checks - which would make some exports impractical -

or would all food exports simply be banned until we are put in the databases again ?
Anyone know ?

Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
May on her feet in Commons shortly - she 'll say more work to do on backstop, but hearing also she might scrap the fee for EU nationals who want to stay after Brexit, and promise select committees and other parties a bigger role in second phase of the negotiations

May expected to promise 'she will consider how we might meet our obligations to the people of Northern Ireland and Ireland in a way that can command the greatest possible support in the House, and then take these conclusions of these discussions back to the EU'

PM also expected absolutely to rule out reopening the Good Friday agreement - statement soon on @BBCNews

Seriously this whole thing could have been averted if someone had put that naff inspirational poster in Cameron's office. The one that says 'fail to prepare, prepare to fail'.

I am slowly amassing the first three sets of books of the Cambridge latin course. When the country's gone to shit and there's nothing to do I shall teach myself latin and dream of going to pompeii.

Here we go speech.

DGR I can smoke in a pub in Austria.

Exactly. And we could in Spain in 2007 - despite their ban being in place for a while.

It was the UK unilaterally deciding to "gold plate" EU directives which led to our blanket ban. Now that's not necessarily a bad thing if you're happy for the state to stick it's nose into your well being. But it was certainly well beyond what "the EU" demanded.

There was a similar thing with metric measures. The EU regulations merely required pricing to reflect metric measures and to be clearly displayed in metric. Beyond that, there was no need to do anything. It was the UK that decided you couldn't have non metric measures. So when the "metric martyrs" (who history might regard as the John the Baptist of Brexit) got all upset about the laws, it was the UK they should have been pissed off with.

Interestingly enough, the one area that has gone graveyard quiet in the Brexit debate, is metrication. There was a bit of banter way back about how Brexit had nothing to do with reversing metrication that was quickly rubbished with loads of articles where people touted it as one of the "benefits of Brexit". However as I recall, that immediately spooked even the most hardcore of the younger Brexiteers who realised that they might actually have to learn something (which seems to be against their religion, I guess). Because from that point, it's dropped out of sight.

Older Brexiteers could probably manage. But anyone under ... say 45, is going to have to learn a whole load of weird numbers.

It would be ironic if it turned out the easiest way to have reversed Brexit was to rattle younger Brexiteers into learning Imperial ....

I guess my afternoon coffee (4 shots of espresso in a humumgous Americano) must have kicked in.

Meanwhile, BAe sells tank business .... to Germany

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46946413

British defence giant BAE Systems has sold a majority stake in its Land UK tank and combat vehicle division to German rival Rheinmetall for £28.6m.

(contd)

The statement is OK so far...

...nothing particularly jumping out at me as 'bad' as such.