Westminstenders: At the point of collapse?

[RedToothBrush]

May is in trouble. The Tory Party are in trouble.

Brexit is not in trouble, but we certainly are.

May's problem is she has no way forward.

One the one hand, the ERG will not accept anything to soften Brexit. That's an extension or Norway. Or a second ref. The story tonight emerging of Rees-Mogg as 'peacemaker' is quite the opposite. Its a thinly veiled threat saying if you do not please the ERG we will split and no longer support the PM. They will quiet simply threaten to collapse the government if May decides on that course. Their gamble will be that with the Tories ahead in the polls, they can get enough seats to enable no deal or cause enough chaos to cause accidental no deal. Thus forcing out One Nation Tories from the party.

One the other hand if May does not soften Brexit, rumour has it that 20 ministers including several cabinet, will walk. There is talk of cabinet ministers supporting a second ref and of others supporting Nick Boles proposals and demanding a free vote on the matter.

May on the other hand seemed determined to pursue plan A which is now plan B, in the form of the WA. In order to do this her plan was go for cross party talks and a compromise. The trouble is May doesn't understand what the word compromise means, because... Well see above about the two factions within the Tory Party presenting a bit of an issue to that. She felt the WA was the only way to stop the party split / stop the government collasping.

In addition to this we have Labour trying to avoid a split. Corbyn had his ridiculous starting point to cross party talks being completely impossible for May. You can't take no deal off the table if it is the table. Corbyn was essentially asking directly for a revocation or extension to A50 clause. May could not agree to that because... Well see above.

Corbyn is now talking about whipping against Grieve's amendment which sort to create a cross party consensus. Bizarrely grieves suggestion seemed to be for a minority rather than majority which rather undermined it, by Corbyn's real motivation is about his power, preventing a centre consensus and possible splits in the Labour Party.

Corbyn merely wants to be obstructive, and block everything now as he thinks May and the Conservative Party are doomed to fail and the government will fail. And arguably this is a good and sensible calculation as things stand.

May's next Meaningful vote is due on the 29th Jan. But 28th Feb is pencilled in for a general election. Meaning it would have to be called by Thursday this week.

Will it happen?

We find out, not on this thread, but the next one... Or maybe even the one after that!

PS there was a bomb in Londonderry. And there's talk of a bilateral treaty with Ireland (a euphemisms for renegotiating the GFA).

Brexit was always ultimately about NI.

‘Leave’ seems to be born of a mix of ideology, jingoism, nostalgia, fatalism, and fear - and quite possibly a form of reckless curiosity. No amount of rational explanation/argument will ever prevail against these.

There are a couple of leavers on there who I strongly suspect are not just there for the popcorn. Posting ostensibly "informed" stuff, gets debunked, then they're back with a new spin after consulting the manual.

'Vote Remain,,,You probably won't die' isn't really catchy enough somehow.

‘Remain’ (to me at least) seems more representative of pragmatism, consensus and compromise.

As my username might suggest, my "Remain" is borne of a deep emotional attachment to the country my mother came from being in a transcendent union with the country my father comes from, and all the cultural and economic benefits that brings. I'll grant I'm not necessarily "the norm". But I also know there are a lot of people with similar - and more eloquently expressed - sentiments.

Indeed Mistigri.
There are 3 or 4 who have been 'asking' the same question or putting the same erroneous point for over 6 months.
They can only be doing it as a 'wind up'.

I wonder how many homeless could have been housed, how many hungry could have been fed, how many ill could have been cured if Leavers had put all their effort into trying to make the UK a better place, rather than telling us we lost and to get over it ?

There are a couple of leavers on there who I strongly suspect are not just there for the popcorn. Posting ostensibly "informed" stuff, gets debunked, then they're back with a new spin after consulting the manual.

If you don't engage, they can't really post. They exists to merely draw the resources of anyone with any facts away from the fray with an endless cycle of verbiage.

The govt would soon go broke trying to compensate all businesses for Brexit costs

They may subsidise a few key sectors - which will increase our taxes and / or the annual govt deficit and national debt

Those sectors they don't subsidise will pass on costs to the consumer in the form of higher prices and smaller quantities and / or go broke or move abroad

I've taken a step backwards from Brexit over the weekend - busy celebrating a win for Edinburgh! What I find interesting on plugging back in to the news is that nothing has really changed. May seems to be, yet again, planning to ask the EU to drop the backstop. They have totally misjudged their opposition on this. The UK is used to being able to bully "smaller" nations. But that "smaller" nation of Ireland now has the entire EU backing them up. So now the UK is, in fact the "smaller" nation. Its the first taste of what it is like to negotiate from that position. It does not bode well for future trade agreements.

My weekend off from Brexit was lovely btw, I'd heartily recommend it. I even managed to smile and nod as my family were busy trying to figure out whether it will be affordable to do a day trip to Dublin when we go away in the summer. I wanted to warn them that there is no point pricing it up now, but my initial suggestion of waiting til March was ignored - so smile and nod seemed appropriate!

Uganda suffered economically when Idi Amin turfed out the Asians (entrepreneurial activity) and 'intellectuals'. (anyone with anything above basic education).
Turned a thriving country into a 'basket case' in a matter of months.

BTW one if the things I am stockpiling is books. All this rewriting of history bothers me a lot. There are certain things I want to ensure my son understands and has the opportunity to learn about.

Oh Jesus.

If people are hungry, whose food will they steal first?

Supply correct facts, but don't get involved in posts about feelz and motivations - the latter 2 are pointless

DG yup and what if that magic money tree existed for homelessness and the NHS like it does for ferry companies that don't have ferries? They've created something spectacular, magical, awful and deathly.

If this were a tv program i'd think it was a comedy.

BTW one if the things I am stockpiling is books.

Or "fuel" as Brexiteers refer to them.

BigChoc Wooing the Hungarian government with words is pointless. They are ideologically right-wing, but the money comes from the EU. They know which side of their bread is buttered.

Poland has possibly Hungary on its side in regarding Ireland as a small country which should be rolled over in the interests of the bigger countries

Typical far right morality, which our govt shares
The Uk govt was caught totally unaware that it is only those 2 countries that regard little Ireland as expendable, instead of 26

The remaining 25 countries so far solidly support Ireland and put peace before profit.

Bruno Waterfieldd@BrunoBrussels*

Poland is very off message on Brexit. And has form
Last September, his colleague Konrad Szymański said:
"Ireland is a small country. Are we really going to wreck a deal over the backstop”? 😡

Hungary & Poland can both vote to abandon Ireland without harming the EU economy - in fact tbh maybe helping it.
So no real constraints on them there, as they clearly don't mind being the EU's joint Millwall.

Where their desire for EU funding kicks in is remaining in the EU:

they'll stay at least as long as they are net recipients, then the hard right parties probably planned to Leave....
BUT then Brexit-Buggered Britain has changed the minds of a lot of hard right politicians about that !

Fabian Zuleeg@FabianZuleeg (European Policy Centre, Brussels)

#Brexit May's Plan B has to fulfill 4 conditions:

1. commands HoC majority
2. doesn't split Conservatives
3. is compatible with EU
4. doesn't facilitate a Corbyn government.

Can't see what that could be but no other alternatives does either so no deal is most likely
....
Peter Wilding@eurorealist

She's waiting for a Parliamentary deus ex machina to put her out of her misery retaining her ability to blame Corbyn/Brussels/Irish etc for thwarting her deal. ^
Her only objective remember is keeping the Tory Party together.
Or avoiding blame for splitting it.
.....
Fabian Zuleeg@FabianZuleeg

BBC News - May to focus on Irish backstop in her Brexit 'plan B'
(link: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46941673)

On what basis does May think that EU27 will accept watering down of the backstop?
On what basis do MPs believe that they can extend Art50 unilaterally?
UK thinking not progressing

Unless I am missing a trick, as far as the EU is currently concerned, the WA is signed off their side ? So Poland and Hungary - whatever their "whatevers" can't do anything concrete right now ?

I haven't seen this in the press yet but according to frustrated/scared locals I know there are two ongoing issues in the Creggan estate (Derry) today. Two separate vans (a white van and a Royal Mail van) have been hijacked and then abandoned with suspect devices within them. Lots of people have been moved out of their home or had big delays on the roads.

May is ..... something, all right:

Tom Newton Dunn@tnewtondunn

Groundhog May latest: I'm told not to expect much from PM's statement, apart from a rough affirmation of Plan A with the need for "changes".
No10 sorts think it's too early to show her hand. < 🤦🏻‍♀️ >
That will come on Jan 28/29 when HMG decides what friendly amendments to accept. < >
.....

Bruno Waterfieldd@BrunoBrussels*

Idea that Germany in the form of Merkel will ride in on a white horse to save the day is mistaken.
That's what recent history shows and what senior Germans say in private

< I agree, polls show German public overwhelmingly against further concessions to the UK >

I haven't seen this in the press yet but according to frustrated/scared locals I know there are two ongoing issues in the Creggan estate (Derry) today. Two separate vans (a white van and a Royal Mail van) have been hijacked and then abandoned with suspect devices within them.

Maybe that's where Plan B was all along ?

BigChocFrenzy What concessions have the EU made to date ?

I'm not even going to bother listening to May's speech. Im going for zen this week.

DG Poland & Hungary can't do anything, except embarass themselves and further lose influence.
All heads of govt - including theirs - already signed the WA.
The EP will approve it, if the HoC shenenigans don't cause them to wait and see what happens.

Their attitude " why are we letting a small country overrise EU interests" is classic fascist ruthlessness, but is not shared by other E27 govts or the EU Commission.

Anyway, there is no mechanism for just 2 isolated countries to reopen the WA.

There is very little support elsewhere for cynically abandoning a member country, Ireland, just to increase EU economic profit.
Even simple self-interest means that other members don't want to set this precedent, especially the 12 members that are themselves small countries.

Farage and his ilk are iconoclasts / wreckers. I have a bit of that in me too, and I sense the thrill he feels as he wrecks the status quo. Bannon is probably a similar personality type.