Westminstenders: At the point of collapse?

[RedToothBrush]

May is in trouble. The Tory Party are in trouble.

Brexit is not in trouble, but we certainly are.

May's problem is she has no way forward.

One the one hand, the ERG will not accept anything to soften Brexit. That's an extension or Norway. Or a second ref. The story tonight emerging of Rees-Mogg as 'peacemaker' is quite the opposite. Its a thinly veiled threat saying if you do not please the ERG we will split and no longer support the PM. They will quiet simply threaten to collapse the government if May decides on that course. Their gamble will be that with the Tories ahead in the polls, they can get enough seats to enable no deal or cause enough chaos to cause accidental no deal. Thus forcing out One Nation Tories from the party.

One the other hand if May does not soften Brexit, rumour has it that 20 ministers including several cabinet, will walk. There is talk of cabinet ministers supporting a second ref and of others supporting Nick Boles proposals and demanding a free vote on the matter.

May on the other hand seemed determined to pursue plan A which is now plan B, in the form of the WA. In order to do this her plan was go for cross party talks and a compromise. The trouble is May doesn't understand what the word compromise means, because... Well see above about the two factions within the Tory Party presenting a bit of an issue to that. She felt the WA was the only way to stop the party split / stop the government collasping.

In addition to this we have Labour trying to avoid a split. Corbyn had his ridiculous starting point to cross party talks being completely impossible for May. You can't take no deal off the table if it is the table. Corbyn was essentially asking directly for a revocation or extension to A50 clause. May could not agree to that because... Well see above.

Corbyn is now talking about whipping against Grieve's amendment which sort to create a cross party consensus. Bizarrely grieves suggestion seemed to be for a minority rather than majority which rather undermined it, by Corbyn's real motivation is about his power, preventing a centre consensus and possible splits in the Labour Party.

Corbyn merely wants to be obstructive, and block everything now as he thinks May and the Conservative Party are doomed to fail and the government will fail. And arguably this is a good and sensible calculation as things stand.

May's next Meaningful vote is due on the 29th Jan. But 28th Feb is pencilled in for a general election. Meaning it would have to be called by Thursday this week.

Will it happen?

We find out, not on this thread, but the next one... Or maybe even the one after that!

PS there was a bomb in Londonderry. And there's talk of a bilateral treaty with Ireland (a euphemisms for renegotiating the GFA).

Brexit was always ultimately about NI.

PSNI @PoliceServiceNI
Security alert currently in Derry/Londonderry in Circular Rd area after report van hijacked around 11:30am by 3 masked men who threw an object in the back before abandoning it. Cordons in place. Please be patient while we work to make the scene safe. Further updates to follow.

Is this likely to be agreed by the rest of the E27?
I bloody hope not.
And really don't think so.
Poland has been the outlyer, within EU27, in being less supportive than the others about the border. I guess because there are so many Polish citizns here in UK, and that's their biggest focus (which I can understand).

This outbreak of planned violence and disruption in Derry highlights why the EU can't back down on supporting Ireland.

The EU27 is not going to limit the backstop because that would defeat the whole point of having one.

RTB
I used to support Labour through my UNISON membership. I changed my membership to no political affiliation a couple of years ago, perhaps even earlier, because I was disgusted by all the infighting within the Labour Party and the backstabbing and intimidation that was going on. Nothing to do with Brexit. I have not looked back on my decision to stop my money going to the Labour Party even though I did vote for my labour MP in 2017 because he is very pro EU and trusted him more to vote against the EU than the LibDem candidate who was part of the coalition government

To vote against the government rather!

The EU have said new thinking is needed from UK; they work as a bloc and the back stops status in law is non-negotiable.

I've just cancelled our trip to visit family in Derry next month.
My teenagers don't understand how to keep themselves safe over there. They can't glance around a street and see potential dangers. They speak with cut glass English accents in loud voices and my family are in heavily Republican areas. And despite speaking some Irish they get confused about when it's safe to use it and when not.
As I cancelled the flight I knew that others will be doing so. The last thing Derry needs is to lose their rising tourism income. But my kids aren't going to go through what I did.

Same here Somerville - delurking to say that I have just told my Dad who is pretty ill that I can't bring his grandson over now in Feb - was hoping to get in a visit before the end of March.

This FAQ from an American website aimed at people wanting to get their Italian dual citizenship is fascinating ... it's pretty much a puff piece for why anyone would want to be in the EU.

getitaliancitizenship.com/faq/

What is the European Union?

The European Union (previously known as the European Community) was founded after the Second World War to ensure peace in the region and to economically unite the nations of Europe.

Today, the EU boasts a fully integrated internal market in which citizens, goods and services can move freely across national borders. Belgium, Germany, France, Italy, Luxembourg and the Netherlands were the six original member states. After five rounds of enlargement (Denmark, Ireland and the United Kingdom in 1973; Greece in 1981; Spain and Portugal in 1986; Austria, Finland and Sweden in 1995; and the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Cyprus, Malta, Bulgaria and Romania in 2004-7), as well as the accession of Croatia in 2013, the union currently has 28 member countries. For more information, visit the EU website here.
Do Italian citizens enjoy full EU rights?

Italians are considered citizens of the European Union. As an Italian dual citizen, you would be allowed free movement within the E.U., as well as all benefits to which European Union citizens are entitled.
What is the euro?

The Single European Act (1986) and the Treaty on European Union (1992) introduced the idea of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and laid the foundations for a single currency known as the euro. In January of 1999, the euro was introduced though EU citizens continued to use their national currency until euro bank notes and coins were put into circulation on January 1, 2002.

The euro (€) is the official currency of 19 out of 28 EU member countries. These countries are collectively known as the Eurozone, and are comprised of: Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain. Countries which do not use the euro or with an opt-out are Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Sweden, and the United Kingdom.
How can Italian citizenship help my employment prospects?

As an Italian and an American citizen, you will be effectively cleared for employment both within the U.S. and within the greater European Union.

Currently, single citizenship Americans cannot legally work in the E.U. without a visa or sponsorship from their employer. As an E.U. citizen, you would enjoy the full rights and benefits of your Italian passport. This means you don’t need sponsorship for employment, and would be considered a part of the local European candidate pool.

For people with unique skills or backgrounds, this is an immense plus as it allows you to compete for a job without adding an extra burden on a potential employer.

What are the healthcare benefits of having Italian dual citizenship?

Health care in Italy is extremely affordable, even by European Union standards. Though the standard of care varies from region to region (just like state to state in the U.S.), Italian citizens can all expect an affordable, high standard of care. To find out more about Italian health care services, please visit italy.angloinfo.com/healthcare/health-system/.

Does Italian citizenship entitle me to more affordable education?

By and large, the answer is yes.

Education in Italy (and the greater European Union) is far more affordable than education in the United States. There are many world class institutions in the E.U. which charge students very nominal fees. There is one catch: many of these institutions charge different fees for E.U. citizens and everyone else.

As a dual Italian citizen, you would be entitled to the discounted European student rates. For an example, if you wanted to use your Italian citizenship to study in the Netherlands, you would pay around 2,000 euros a year. Contrast that with a single citizenship American who would pay over 15,000. Beyond that, being an Italian (and therefore, European) citizen entitles you to more local financial aid not open to students from other parts of the world.

Can I live elsewhere in the European Union?

Yes!

This is one of the greatest benefits of being an Italian citizen. Having an Italian passport is like having a passport to any EU country, allowing you to live anywhere within its borders. Under the terms of Article 17 (ex Article 8) of the Treaty on the European Union, “any person holding the nationality of a member state is a citizen of the Union.” “EU citizenship, which supplements national citizenship without replacing it, grants citizens the right to move freely and to reside on the territory of the member states” (Article 18).

I've just cancelled our trip to visit family in Derry next month.

We went to Derry as part of a big Ireland tour about 3 years ago (NI specifically requested by teenage DD who is a GoT fan).

I have to be honest - if I was looking to do the same thing again this year I might be thinking about giving NI a miss :(

Irish deputy PM Simon Coveney says the Polish foreign minister, who suggested the backstop could be limited to 5 years, was trying to be ‘helpful’ but that his idea doesn’t reflect EU thinking. Adds if UK changes its red lines the EU will respond ‘generously’.

Breakingthewaves and Mrs8

lonely The EU govts will absolutely NOT stop us importing goods from them

and would not impose punitive terms on British exports - the standard 3rd country terms on those are what would cause logjams & price rises there.

Also, haulage firms may refuse to transport goods if they are unsure of getting their vehicles back from the logjam at either end, at least not without hefty contingency fees on top

I predict that when the crunch comes she’ll put her party first, and that means she would favour a no-deal Brexit before no Brexit. Of course, Parliament may well overrule her — as we’ll see this week.

George Osborne, in today's Standard.

(Seen via Guardian live feed.)

Also, haulage firms may refuse to transport goods if they are unsure of getting their vehicles back from the logjam at either end

i wonder how all the jams will affect drivers hours ? Obviously UK drivers in the EU will still have to follow EU driving rules. (I suspect out of the EU, the UK will water down or abolish any restrictions on driving in the UK ...)

DGR
{Also, haulage firms may refuse to transport goods if they are unsure of getting their vehicles back from the logjam at either end}
Kent County Council raised this problem a while back and were seeking government advice about removing the driving hours restrictions.
They could see the issues with drivers in queues technically 'driving' and not resting.

Poland - and especially Hungary - are the 2 main countries the UK govt has wooed

• because they both have hard right govts which are sympathetic to the UK hard right -

in the hope that they can weaken EU unity,

So, Brexiters - including Lexiters - are hoping the European far right will save them

However, because of those same hard right govts, very few countries would follow them.
The big players in the EU and almost all the small countries - in fellow feeling - support the RoI fully and won't allow the backstop to weaken.

Also, since any future trade deal can be vetoed by even one country,
the RoI can promise it will veto in future unless the backstop is signed off first - in which case there wouldn't be any FTA or even probably any lesser trade arrangement.

if the UK allows higher hours, then that settles the question of whether UK drivers will be allowed to take their goods from the Channel to their final E27 destination.

They won't

Who will be paying for all this extra driving time? Are the haulage firms expected to just bear the cost of having their drivers snarled up in traffic for hours on end?

They could see the issues with drivers in queues technically 'driving' and not resting.

Ah, well, the total radio silence with the commercial haulage insurance industry suggests that's another bollock that's been dropped.

Heaven forfend you get killed by an HGV whose insurance won't payout because no one cleared the change in the law with them.

Who will be paying for all this extra driving time?

Who pays for anything ? After all, the government doesn't make a penny. Just spends yours.

Hence prices go up.

Random thoughts: feel free to skip.

I popped over to the no deal thread earlier. Many of the posts confirmed what has been crystallising in my mind.

‘Leave’ seems to be born of a mix of ideology, jingoism, nostalgia, fatalism, and fear - and quite possibly a form of reckless curiosity. No amount of rational explanation/argument will ever prevail against these.

‘Remain’ (to me at least) seems more representative of pragmatism, consensus and compromise. The trouble is, these are not exciting or sexy. It is hard to see what sound bites could be attached to them in order to win hearts and minds. Therefore, they would always be difficult to sell.

A couple of analogies: no deal Brexit - surgery with no anaesthetic and no pain relief afterwards.

Leave - the small child who heads towards a power socket. The child’s parents (with years of experience and knowledge) warn the child to stay away from the socket. The child knows they’re probably right, but waits until their backs are turned, and pokes a finger in anyway. Lesson learned, the hard way (I was that child, hence my inclusion of reckless curiosity).