Westminstenders: At the point of collapse?

[RedToothBrush]

May is in trouble. The Tory Party are in trouble.

Brexit is not in trouble, but we certainly are.

May's problem is she has no way forward.

One the one hand, the ERG will not accept anything to soften Brexit. That's an extension or Norway. Or a second ref. The story tonight emerging of Rees-Mogg as 'peacemaker' is quite the opposite. Its a thinly veiled threat saying if you do not please the ERG we will split and no longer support the PM. They will quiet simply threaten to collapse the government if May decides on that course. Their gamble will be that with the Tories ahead in the polls, they can get enough seats to enable no deal or cause enough chaos to cause accidental no deal. Thus forcing out One Nation Tories from the party.

One the other hand if May does not soften Brexit, rumour has it that 20 ministers including several cabinet, will walk. There is talk of cabinet ministers supporting a second ref and of others supporting Nick Boles proposals and demanding a free vote on the matter.

May on the other hand seemed determined to pursue plan A which is now plan B, in the form of the WA. In order to do this her plan was go for cross party talks and a compromise. The trouble is May doesn't understand what the word compromise means, because... Well see above about the two factions within the Tory Party presenting a bit of an issue to that. She felt the WA was the only way to stop the party split / stop the government collasping.

In addition to this we have Labour trying to avoid a split. Corbyn had his ridiculous starting point to cross party talks being completely impossible for May. You can't take no deal off the table if it is the table. Corbyn was essentially asking directly for a revocation or extension to A50 clause. May could not agree to that because... Well see above.

Corbyn is now talking about whipping against Grieve's amendment which sort to create a cross party consensus. Bizarrely grieves suggestion seemed to be for a minority rather than majority which rather undermined it, by Corbyn's real motivation is about his power, preventing a centre consensus and possible splits in the Labour Party.

Corbyn merely wants to be obstructive, and block everything now as he thinks May and the Conservative Party are doomed to fail and the government will fail. And arguably this is a good and sensible calculation as things stand.

May's next Meaningful vote is due on the 29th Jan. But 28th Feb is pencilled in for a general election. Meaning it would have to be called by Thursday this week.

Will it happen?

We find out, not on this thread, but the next one... Or maybe even the one after that!

PS there was a bomb in Londonderry. And there's talk of a bilateral treaty with Ireland (a euphemisms for renegotiating the GFA).

Brexit was always ultimately about NI.

The UK is witnessing a growth in far right factions and politicians. How do we ensure we do not inadvertently follow a similar path to 1930s Germany?

I think we are on that path already. Part of the problem will be people who think we aren't (which was the way the 30s unfolded).

I wonder if in 10 years time, we'll have to have "de-Brexitification" classes for the population to rid them of the toxic poison of the ideology ?

Lonely, JRM refused MumsNet (he probably doesn't understand the concept).

Agreeing with Mistigri, the WA is the least bad way of the UK leaving, and having seen the ridiculous nonsense that has been going on for 2 years the UK needs top leave. Sadly it will be 'buggered' when it does but that's life.

{I wonder if in 10 years time, we'll have to have "de-Brexitification" classes for the population to rid them of the toxic poison of the ideology ?}
N Korea on Thames?

With no Deal, the UK would at least break the spirit and understandings between all parties at the time the GFA was negotiated,
but unlikely, imo, to formally end the GFA
It'll use weasel words and be dishonest about what it is doing

Ireland - and hence the EU - will be furious at No Deal and its consequences for all Ireland
So will the Irish lobbies in countries with a large irish presence

• particularly important will be the powerful irish American lobby and how Trump judges potential votes to be won / lost wrt them and the fascist right who would mostly support the DUP

The GFA specifically requires the UK to apply the full EHRC to NI, so if May really pulls out of the EHRC,
then that openly breaks the GFA and the UK would be an international pariah

Weasel words and leaving without a deal - and without paying money owed - would make other countries very dubious about trusting the UK in any new deal
and of course, in ever being able to get a deal through Parliament.

The GFA doesn't spell out in the text that NI border checks are forbidden,
hence Brexit Ultras claim they are allowed

The UK - & possibly the RoI - may able to claim several months emergency waiver on border checks, due to the history of the Troubles.
However, longterm that probably won't work

Therefore, the UK govt is likely to claim they are allowed, if they decide to put on their own checks

• there is considerable risk in the event of No Deal that the UK would have to reimpose a hard border with security checks, if the Troubles reignite.

Even if the UK doesn't - which means it has to have open borders with every other country in the world with which it doesn't have a trade deal -
the EU will have to seal its external borders within months, or expel Ireland, or disband itself
So obviously the RoI will apply the minimum checks it can get away with.

Of course, the EU will be totally pissed with the UK if there is No Deal
and they won't negotiate any future trade deal until the UK signs up to everything in the WA - including the backstop.

Unfortunately, the UK will lose a huge benefit of agreeing to this after Brexit:
legally, the EU cannot grant any transition period once the A50 period has ended and the UK is no longer a member

and of course the UK will be desperate to make deals with anyone,
while the whole world knows to take advantage of that dreadfully weak negotiating position.

Lonely, JRM refused MumsNet (he probably doesn't understand the concept).

Yes I know he refused -but I think it's cowardly.

I thought for a bit of fun in these dark times I would volunteer to email him with a list of questions if Westmjnsterenders wanted to ask them anyway!

Kampuchea-on-Thames
they had a Year Zero too and persecuted the "elite" = anyone wearing spectacles or owning a book.
We know how well that turned out

Deviation but - can anyone show me where Macron himself has said he will allow trade through his borders to UK? My leaver friend is adamant he has said he will wave through lorries...not just the Mayor of Calais. Needless to say I can't find anything of the sort online. I tried to explain he can't as it is an EU border, but obviously, she's not buying that. Her view is largely unchanged: that it's because Parliament is Remain the deal can't go through/ in 5 years the European project will be dissolved/talk of Human Rights removals is scaremongering because WE led them into Human RIghts - look at Germany killing all of those people in the War.... Rantings. TBF she is shying away from her demands for no deal that she wanted two days ago now. Her husband has suddenly become very anxious about other things in his life too, which I think is a knock on effect. I personally think leavers are beginning to worry and old slogans/repeating mantras helps self soothe.

Re Queen - how do we know she is a fan of Brexit? I thought she wore the EU hat/broach in solidarity with remain?

Barnier in Ireland
What a surprise.

The mayor of Calais is maybe just politicking and ignoring / ignorant of EU law - not all the idiots are on our side of the Channel
OR
it could be a mistranslation / misunderstanding or blatant quote-picking

Macron has NOT said anything beyong the EU No Deal contingency plans
which is that for up to 9 months, some goods will be allowed in - only stuff the EU wants - but afaik, full 3rd country checks will be applied.

twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1087317144587722754

Mr Barnier dismissed reports of a bilateral arrangement between the UK and Ireland, saying the EU negotiated as "one team." He said the focus was now on the future relationship and the Political Declaration which sketches that relationship.

Uganda suffered economically when Idi Amin turfed out the Asians (entrepreneurial activity) and 'intellectuals'. (anyone with anything above basic education).
Turned a thriving country into a 'basket case' in a matter of months.

HMQ may have been misquoted, or misled before Brexit - or the SUn just invented it totally.

She certainly seems anxious now - probably aware of the risk of the UK dissolving into its component parts and then England dissolving further
as well as the economy going down the toilet - she likely listens to experts like Carney and may even have had a private audience.

I missed this from yesterday

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/150-000-members-desert-labour-in-brexit-backlash-nvt8fgwfs?shareToken=764e9a1cbb7e6ede4a87b69482553eb0
150,000 members desert Labour in Brexit backlash
Jeremy Corbyn’s stance on a second vote is being blamed for a tail-off in support said to have cost the party £6m

That means more people have left Labour than are in the LDs or the Tories.

That's a lot of people who were politically engaged enough to join but have now switched off.

Labour relies on its members to door knock for elections and that's what made a massive difference in 2017.

A Labour insider said the downswing had already cost around £6m. “The party is skint,” the source said. “There have already been some recriminations about the amount spent on last summer’s botched music festival Labour Live.

“Although there is always some drop-off in membership after big events like general elections, or a leadership contest, this is more than you would ordinarily expect and has led many of us to think it’s linked to Jeremy’s unpopular stance on Brexit.”

What's interesting here is the Labour Party don't know why so many members have left. They are attributing it to Brexit (I notice no mention of the trans issue or anti semitism which is telling in itself). Assuming what the issue is, just highlights how they are out of touch with a significant number of members.

The other thing to consider is, that if those members who remain are Corbyn loyalists this is also not a good thing for door knocking. There are many places where if you came to the doorstep full of Corbynisms, you'd run the risk of alienating soft Labour voters completely.

And if that's members who have left, what does that mean in terms of support from the general public.

If indeed this is true about membership this really does not bode well for Labour, nor does it bode well for the rest of us.

Also I note there has been nothing about these ex Labour members defecting to another party.

Political disenchantment and disengagement is worrying.

I also am very afraid we are very much on a 1930s path right now.

I fear a GE right now. I fear a 2nd ref right now.

Uganda suffered economically when Idi Amin turfed out the Asians

One of my best friends in through to 6th form arrived in the UK like that. Probably the cleverest person I've known. He turned down unconditional offers from Oxford and Cambridge in favour of one from Imperial so he could live with his parents.

BTW one if the things I am stockpiling is books. All this rewriting of history bothers me a lot. There are certain things I want to ensure my son understands and has the opportunity to learn about.

leclerc Do you remember the fury in the UK at our taking in these Ugandan Asian refugees - iirc, there were only about 35,000 of them anway.

It was the only decent things to do, a humanitarian decision by Ted Heath's govt at a time when the Tories still did such things.

Since then, we've seen such valuable contributions from those refugees and their children
No wonder Uganda lost so much after they left
(Idi Amin being a nutter with dreadful taste in dictatorial friends didn't help)

To JRM: what changes would you like to see in the UK over the next 20 years?

Some time back Mr Macron stated there would be no ADDITIONAL delays caused by the French. Which I take to mean he will not sanction deliberate delays/strikes/ go slows etc.
However It will not cover the delays that the necessary customs and security checking will involve. I might be wrong, or other reports may be wrong.
Mind you, with the GJ rioting in France having cost well over €1 Billion, I am not sure delays of trucks of food for the British will feature very highly on his 'to do' list.

Thank you BigChoc - so they are letting things IN but not OUT to us, which is what she is saying. And with extra checks. I just can't see where she is getting this rubbish from - although she watches Sky a lot. She also has the idea that somehow the government won't allow us to do something so harmful - they have a plan that they are just not letting on. Everything will settle down in two months maximum, she says. Today so far she reminded me that the EU couldn't even decide where to have it's HQ which shows how useless it is.

I know I keep referencing her, but as the only leaver who engages in a mild debate, or seems to have a basic grasp of the main leaver arguments beyond LEAVE MEANS LEAVE, she is my only insight into their daily thought process.

The other thing to consider is, that if those members who remain are Corbyn loyalists this is also not a good thing for door knocking. There are many places where if you came to the doorstep full of Corbynisms, you'd run the risk of alienating soft Labour voters completely.

That's who is left around here, authoritarian brainwashed bullies, anyone who didn't surrender was managed out.

I spent a fortnight in Uganda many years ago, a beautiful country, great people and so positive, despite the terrors. Absolutely tragic.
It was suffering badly from the Aids epidemic.
A friend who was working in the civil service saw something like 15 of the staff they knew die in a year (out of a couple of hundred). The family would call the office and say they were 'sick' and you knew if they didn't reappear in a couple of days they would be dead in a few weeks.

But surely if hundreds of thousands desert Labour over their Brexit—erring— position then that’s a good sign for Remain if there’s were a second referendum?

I do wonder where they will go, once they’ve left Labour. There is no political home for them.

The EU is in Brussels as it was selected as the most 'practical' at the time, having development space and POLITICALLY it wasn't France or Germany.
The decamping to Strasbourg is a 'symbolic' thing as although it was a contender, it couldn't be the main centre and Strasbourg, being on the border has been French or German at times over it's history.

Leona O'Neill @LeonaONeill1
Police in #Derry are at the scene of a security alert in Circular Road area of the city.
It follows report of a vehicle hijacking in the area, just before 11:30am. White Transit reportedly hijacked by three masked men who threw an object in the back of it before abandoning it