Westminstenders: At the point of collapse?

[RedToothBrush]

May is in trouble. The Tory Party are in trouble.

Brexit is not in trouble, but we certainly are.

May's problem is she has no way forward.

One the one hand, the ERG will not accept anything to soften Brexit. That's an extension or Norway. Or a second ref. The story tonight emerging of Rees-Mogg as 'peacemaker' is quite the opposite. Its a thinly veiled threat saying if you do not please the ERG we will split and no longer support the PM. They will quiet simply threaten to collapse the government if May decides on that course. Their gamble will be that with the Tories ahead in the polls, they can get enough seats to enable no deal or cause enough chaos to cause accidental no deal. Thus forcing out One Nation Tories from the party.

One the other hand if May does not soften Brexit, rumour has it that 20 ministers including several cabinet, will walk. There is talk of cabinet ministers supporting a second ref and of others supporting Nick Boles proposals and demanding a free vote on the matter.

May on the other hand seemed determined to pursue plan A which is now plan B, in the form of the WA. In order to do this her plan was go for cross party talks and a compromise. The trouble is May doesn't understand what the word compromise means, because... Well see above about the two factions within the Tory Party presenting a bit of an issue to that. She felt the WA was the only way to stop the party split / stop the government collasping.

In addition to this we have Labour trying to avoid a split. Corbyn had his ridiculous starting point to cross party talks being completely impossible for May. You can't take no deal off the table if it is the table. Corbyn was essentially asking directly for a revocation or extension to A50 clause. May could not agree to that because... Well see above.

Corbyn is now talking about whipping against Grieve's amendment which sort to create a cross party consensus. Bizarrely grieves suggestion seemed to be for a minority rather than majority which rather undermined it, by Corbyn's real motivation is about his power, preventing a centre consensus and possible splits in the Labour Party.

Corbyn merely wants to be obstructive, and block everything now as he thinks May and the Conservative Party are doomed to fail and the government will fail. And arguably this is a good and sensible calculation as things stand.

May's next Meaningful vote is due on the 29th Jan. But 28th Feb is pencilled in for a general election. Meaning it would have to be called by Thursday this week.

Will it happen?

We find out, not on this thread, but the next one... Or maybe even the one after that!

PS there was a bomb in Londonderry. And there's talk of a bilateral treaty with Ireland (a euphemisms for renegotiating the GFA).

Brexit was always ultimately about NI.

Creating new rights to eradicate “disablism” would mean that
institutions such as the police, fire service or army would no longer
be able to discriminate in favour of the able-bodied. Campaigners
against sex discrimination have already ensured that the fire service
cannot discriminate against women. The price, however, of this
equality, has been that those in danger are forced to depend on firefighters who lack the physical strength to discharge their duties.

Of all the new rights listed by Ms Titterton, the idea of “social
and economic rights” is particularly dramatic. The creation of social
and economic rights would make welfare benefits, access to a job, or
even a minimum income legally justiciable entitlements, marking
again a significant transfer of power and resources to the State.

The Price of Peace could have been titled my struggle.

Ooo we have another constitutional one here:
order-order.com/2019/01/21/government-entitled-ask-queen-not-give-assent-brexit-wreckers-bills/amp/?__twitter_impression=TRUE
GOVERNMENT ENTITLED TO ASK QUEEN NOT TO GIVE ASSENT TO BREXIT WRECKERS’ BILLS

Now if you were after the abolition of the monarchy I'd say this would be a pretty good way to piss off the wrong demographic.

May will keep on floating (ridiculous) ideas until March 29th when she can then say, ok I've tried everything, now it's my deal or no deal.

And what will the 432 do then?

Queeny could also ride a horse into the chamber with the army behind her. But she won't.

@lonelyplanetmum maybe the grim reality of no deal might focus the mind on compromise.

David Allen Green@davidallengreen
If you do not look at the news between Saturday evening and Monday lunchtime, all you will miss is the promotion of and then quick collapse of the government's latest Brexit wheeze.

This might be wise advice!!!!

The BBC (yes !) ran a piece last week (?) noting the various issues and pointed out that since 2011 the Queens role in the constitution has diminished. She can no longer dissolve parliament, and her appointing a Prime Minster has been restricted (admittedly by convention) to party leaders.

I'm a weak republican in that I CBA to do much about it, despite my dislike of the idea of Monarchy. But speaking for myself, one of the "pros" of a Monarchy was the vague warm feeling Monarchists used to promoted by saying we couldn't ever end up like because we have the Queen; you see.

Well, given we are where we are, that's been shown to be a load of old cobblers, hasn't it ? So not only are we spunking a Kings ransom (literally) on these over-privileged law-dodging scroungers. We aren't even getting any use out of them in doing the one thing that was sold to weak republicans (like me) in the past. We've been conned

Maybe Sinn Fein have a point ?

There isn't enough irony in the world, if Brexit proved the death knell for the Monarchy ?

I can see the Queen would be happy to see the entire UK go down the pan - after all, she won't notice - and given by the gold piano Christmas speech she won't care. However, the approaching collapse of the Union - Northern Ireland and Scotland clearly pulling away - should have triggered some sort of alert at "the palace". Surely Queenie wants to keep "purring" ?

@lonelyplanetmum If parliament has managed to change the default to revoke rather than no deal then I think quite a few MPs will vote for her deal at the last minute.

Is there actually a plausible compromise? This is a movement pushed by the far right as far as I know they dont do compromise. I know the Norway plus had some merit as a compromise with moderate leavers and remainers. However given Norway's reasonable stance I assume that's off the table realistically.

I think it's no deal, some weird limbo of extension or revoke. I can't give up on revoke. I'm torn over a PV and more so by the day. No Deal has potential to be so horrific it seems irresponsible to put it as a viable option to the public. The irony is that's the most likely outcome without a PV...so then i talk myself into a PV!

Is there actually a plausible compromise?

Roland Smith's thread about the history of the eurosceptic movement and their inability to find never mind agree on a plan would suggest not.

When is TM due to present her plan today?

Anna Soubry doing a MN webchat on 22 January...

3.30pm @Quietrebel

In those calm parenting books by Janis Norton (?) she has advice on how to get siblings to resolve their own disputes. The one thing the parent generally mustn't do is impose a solution because then they don't learn disputes resolution as an adult skill.

I can't remember what the books say exactly but you teach them a structure, it's something like:

DC1 states problem
DC2 states problem
DC1 suggests solution
DC2 suggests solution
DC1 explains DC2 solution
DC2 explains DC1 solution
DC1 suggests compromise
DC2 suggests compromise

Then by then the theory goes the heat's gone and they agree on something.

I probably haven't remembered it all properly.

But the problem here is that the Brexiteers ERG etc have never had a solution to state. It's Norway for some, USA lapdog or No deal for others. It has been a constantly moveable feast.

So it's impossible to reach consensus in that situation. My view is when things are this difficult - it's just not right- you just put it away in the too hard for now box.

Apparently they were trying to get JRM on, but he has declined.
Yet again MNHQ getting interested too late.
FWIW, why the hell would I want to discuss washing powder on an internet chat site?

Not brexit related but those angry about inequality and injustice, those left behind should get angry with this disgusting fact instead of making the country ripe for plunder through a chaotic no deal. Read this and weep:

www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jan/21/world-26-richest-people-own-as-much-as-poorest-50-per-cent-oxfam-report

Thanks for the link to the Ann Soubry chat on MN, blueeyeshadow

Proof the government are planning something.
twitter.com/willieckerslike/status/1087280244283895808

Apparently they were trying to get JRM on, but he has declined.

Fucking coward.

Just as well how would you choose a question?

{Fucking coward.
Just as well how would you choose a question?}

Apparently trying to line someone else up, get your questions ready.

Here's a potential thing to ask JRM. What would everyone else ask him?

Do you think you would have been on the winning side of the referendum if it wasn't for the support of fellow 'politicians' and voters like this?

UKIP member called for Gina Miller to be beheaded www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-46921529

Question

The UK is witnessing a growth in far right factions and politicians. How do we ensure we do not inadvertently follow a similar path to 1930s Germany?

Roland Smith's thread about the history of the eurosceptic movement and their inability to find never mind agree on a plan would suggest not.

Some fairly high profile leavers gave spent the best part of a decade developing and promoting a feasible "compromise" plan (flexcit) and it has been resoundingly rejected.

No way is a compromise negotiated by remainers ever going to be agreed to.

May is right that her WA is the only way to leave the EU, and at this point she's probably also right that the only way to pass the WA is to run down the clock. So while I disagree with her strategy it's not fundamentally stupid.

If you all want to table a question for JRM I'll send them to him anyway if you like!

Agree Misti May's plan is what leaving the EU looks like in the current situation.

If we had sorted our own shit out first, then we could have had a better plan. Leave was a crap idea.