Westminstenders: At the point of collapse?

[RedToothBrush]

May is in trouble. The Tory Party are in trouble.

Brexit is not in trouble, but we certainly are.

May's problem is she has no way forward.

One the one hand, the ERG will not accept anything to soften Brexit. That's an extension or Norway. Or a second ref. The story tonight emerging of Rees-Mogg as 'peacemaker' is quite the opposite. Its a thinly veiled threat saying if you do not please the ERG we will split and no longer support the PM. They will quiet simply threaten to collapse the government if May decides on that course. Their gamble will be that with the Tories ahead in the polls, they can get enough seats to enable no deal or cause enough chaos to cause accidental no deal. Thus forcing out One Nation Tories from the party.

One the other hand if May does not soften Brexit, rumour has it that 20 ministers including several cabinet, will walk. There is talk of cabinet ministers supporting a second ref and of others supporting Nick Boles proposals and demanding a free vote on the matter.

May on the other hand seemed determined to pursue plan A which is now plan B, in the form of the WA. In order to do this her plan was go for cross party talks and a compromise. The trouble is May doesn't understand what the word compromise means, because... Well see above about the two factions within the Tory Party presenting a bit of an issue to that. She felt the WA was the only way to stop the party split / stop the government collasping.

In addition to this we have Labour trying to avoid a split. Corbyn had his ridiculous starting point to cross party talks being completely impossible for May. You can't take no deal off the table if it is the table. Corbyn was essentially asking directly for a revocation or extension to A50 clause. May could not agree to that because... Well see above.

Corbyn is now talking about whipping against Grieve's amendment which sort to create a cross party consensus. Bizarrely grieves suggestion seemed to be for a minority rather than majority which rather undermined it, by Corbyn's real motivation is about his power, preventing a centre consensus and possible splits in the Labour Party.

Corbyn merely wants to be obstructive, and block everything now as he thinks May and the Conservative Party are doomed to fail and the government will fail. And arguably this is a good and sensible calculation as things stand.

May's next Meaningful vote is due on the 29th Jan. But 28th Feb is pencilled in for a general election. Meaning it would have to be called by Thursday this week.

Will it happen?

We find out, not on this thread, but the next one... Or maybe even the one after that!

PS there was a bomb in Londonderry. And there's talk of a bilateral treaty with Ireland (a euphemisms for renegotiating the GFA).

Brexit was always ultimately about NI.

Did anyone see the this morning interview with the woman who is prepping for brexit? The tone was very much silly woman who is being hysterical. I thought she came across as being pragmatic. She prepped loads but it sounded like she lived in an isolated spot in Cornwall.

Weve got extra stock of drinks, toiletries and cleaning products in the garage, we always have had

We have a little space out there and its a pain in the arse running out of basics

Food not so much, but if i start putting spare food in the garage ill be sure to credit that journalist when i talk to my friends

After all, he does it...its just not called brexit prepping

(To be honest i think its good to encourage people to have a few extra bits for every day life...especially if it's something they can't do with out, like socks)

*They want to drag us back to the kitchen...
*
But that's the two class extremes that are being pandered to:

•JRM, Boris and their ilk who'd prefer women as multiple playthings, or chained to a birthing chair.

•UKIP Tommy Robinson type clones who explain away murdering their wife as " being a naughty boy"

Of course that's not everyone.Of course. But doesn't it make some Leave voters think 'er hang on who are we clubbing together with here' ?

True, but that source he thinks is beneath him will get that story read far more times than if he’d just written a straight article about the other problems we face after brexit. Problem is once you head off down that route and call MNers smug it’s difficult not to end up sounding like a mansplaining twat.

That Times piece is very much an opinion piece rather than anything more.

What that person doesn't get is what stockpiling is really about. It's not simply about having lots of food in case of a massive crisis. It's also about reassurance that no one else is giving and trying to feel in control of a situation which is out of your hands. It's comfort.

So when he says about:
The priority for preppers should be not building personal sock stockpiles, but strengthening their ties to other people. The greatest danger to individuals comes from forces that break down the social bonds that keep us safe and happy. Civility, fortitude, kindness, solidarity, tolerance, trust — these are the factors that bolster our resilience, whether to crime, economic shocks, natural disasters, scare stories or social problems such as loneliness and alienation. Try putting those qualities in your Brexit box.

He's missing a really key point. Brexit is the very thing which is acting to break down the ties between people. People are feeling isolated and alone and do not have ways of reaching out to others because the fabric of society has broken down too far. You can't just say 'I'm worried about this to do with Brexit' to a complete stranger because of the fear of the reaction you might get. Brexit has exposed the dirty underbelly of people's minds and its not pretty. If you are representative of one of those thing under attack - an EU national for example - you've been cast as the outsider and you no longer know if you are accepted or whether it's superficial.

The point is that trust has completely gone, and you can't just start doing that again.

Stockpiling is as psychological as its physical and I know a lot of posters here have expressed that view.

I also note there IS a certain sense of community coming from those who are stockpiling. What does he think the sharing of tips is?

I do think our reliance on technology is a problem. And yes a Carrington event is something we should be concerned about. But in reality government should be contingency planning for that. What Brexit has exposed is that austerity has undermined our governments capability to contingency plan and has exposed its incompetence in doing so. We always had this national belief that as a country we were prepared for things and we had this slack in the system to cope 'like we did in the war'. Ironically Brexit shows that the UK isn't the country that fought WWII and the Blitz Spirit is from a begone age where things were different.

People don't know their neighbours. That's a concequence of longer commutes and longer working hours for starters. You don't work with people in the same village or even town as you. That's not simply technology that has allowed that to happen. That's a fundamental change in our economy and our social structure.

Stockpiling might help us get through the first few weeks where it becomes apparent to everyone else that these things are lacking and all hell breaks loose. The hope that stockpiles have, is that will be enough to get through the worse few weeks before forces come into action to take control of the situation - whether that be from government or indeed from local community.

Brexit is a symptom of community breakdown and its a symptom of the breakdown of forward thinking and planning on a formal and official level.

Stockpiling is merely a response to the realisation of that. And most people doing it are acutely aware - more than most - that this is why they are doing it.

You can't blame people who are stockpiling for that.

PS if there is a journalist reading this thread, please steal my point and write about it. It's important.

Nicely put red steal away journos!

Interesting article quiet I'm glad he made the distinction between all the bad eggs and the men who are angry because they feel misplaced. I see a difference, i have empathy and sympathy to a degree for the for the latter. The former can bite my ass.

Not for the first time, I'll say "Well said @RedToothBrush "

My DH's job is selling SaaS (software as a service) to countries across the EU. It's an American company with global offices (DH based in London). He currently also has non-EU clients that he deals with as well.

The question has been asked at his company with a resounding 'we don't know'

We are in the late stages of buying a house, with an increase in mortgage. Completely fine if we keep our jobs, if DH loses his job and can't find another one within a few months then things start to get scary for us.

Not going into too many details but DH's job situation has become increasingly difficult over the last few weeks. He's also been headhunted by someone and been offered a job.

But we are at paralysis over what to do.

In addition to that there is our house situation. We know there is a house which would be perfect for us, which is due to go on the market and for various reasons we have been told we will get first look. We do not want to drop the price right now on our house though as frankly we don't want to sell right this second whilst Brexit is up in the air. After all we don't even know if we will stay in the country.

We NEED to move. We WANT to make decisions. Big ones. We don't feel we can.

We are not the only ones in our social circle who feel like this. I can name at least half a dozen people putting off big decisions like buying a car, getting an extension, changing jobs or buying a house at the moment.

These are professional types. And that HAS to be having a big effect on the economy not just in terms of money but also in terms of productivity.

Anxiety gets in everywhere and is largely a negative thing.

I was listening to LBC this morning (on my commute again) and JRM was on.

I hate to say it but he was more reasonable than I'd presumed on some topics. Particularly around Bercow, Grieves and EU people already living in the UK.

On the last point in particular he feels that they've been treated badly and should have been told from the off that they would get settled status free of charge.

Obviously some of his other ideas (no deal, abortion are much less reasonable!). I expected to very, very much dislike him but didn't

Anyway....my predictions are strengthening significantly towards no deal. I'm 75% no deal now...

The support is high from Leavers, constitutionally it is difficult (impossible IMO) to stop no deal and TM will go for it because the alternatives will break the Tory party. On the other side no deal will see a handful go, but not as many (I have no facts for this, just opinion).

Well said Red! There are only so many warnings you can give leavers before you give up. Yes society and trust have been ripped apart by Brexit. I speak to my leaver friend daily but she refuses to look at news that doesn't agree with her. I'm keeping my own family safe, it's up to her what she does to prepare.

Here you go @umpteennamechanges , does this help you ?

Hi LittlePickleHead - it’s nice to see more and more lurkers breaking cover.

Does anyone know what the situation is with selling services to the EU in the event of No Deal and a reliance on WTO?

I don’t know, but given the depth of knowledge on these threads, surely someone has some ideas?
It strikes me that working for a US firm potentially gives a bit more security?
I have to admit, though, that despite rather badly needing more space we have delayed both moving and extending so we can be more flexible when we need to be.

I should add that contingency planning itself represents community planning and a responsibility to others. When it's absent it shows up the lack of that community responsibility and value.

Precisely Red, like anti vaxxers who rely on herd immunity. Thus actually breaking herd immunity and threatening lives.

I have to admit, though, that despite rather badly needing more space we have delayed both moving and extending so we can be more flexible when we need to be.

Same here. The perfect house for us is up for sale in the village but it would be the very top of our budget and it’s just too risky to go for. If one of use was made redundant we’d lose the house.

At the moment, our house is small and we’re running out of space but the mortgage on it is small enough that we could cope on one salary if we had to.

I'm kind of resigned to no deal.

Come the Turkey style cleansing, I'm toast.

I was listening to LBC this morning (on my commute again) and JRM was on. I hate to say it but he was more reasonable than I'd presumed on some topics

For all the bile I have spewed forth at the collective, it's probably fair to say that as individuals, they probably are fairly reasonable and people that could be dealt with. After all, despite their public personas and proclamations, they've managed to live their entire lives in the EU without too much psychological damage.

It's the fact they've banded together into some sort of tribe that's made them swively-eyed-loonish.

So, taken at face value, JRM is effectively light years ahead of Theresa May about citizens rights.

He's just playing the "reasonable chap" card now, because private polling has suggested Leave is losing some support from the less fervent because of it's increasingly extreme agenda.

You choose

I'm sensing there's been a change somewhere ... I think the leaves "we won, get over it" rhetoric has succeeded in the main - there's no real belief in remain/revoke anymore. The problem now is (a) that was never the problem - a credible plan always was; and (b) maybe remain lost, but it looks now like Leave could lose too. For some reason I am reminded of King Solomon and decisions about babies. Only Brexit will cut the baby in two.

Thanks Red. The Derry bomb is terrifying. It's brought back all those memories of the Troubles.

Thanks Red and Somerville, although hearing that you are delaying these big decisions is making me feel sick and like we are blundering into a big mistake.

We desperately need more space and for various reasons it's taken us a few years to get to the point we've been able to move. So it's incredibly difficult to decide to not go ahead now we're actually at the point it looks likely.

I'm so angry that so many lives are in limbo with big question marks hanging over them so close to the leaving date. And that there is so little information on the real life impact no deal will have on people's ability to do their jobs?

I have leavers in my close family who I cannot discuss this with - the topic was banned at Christmas as it gets too heated otherwise.

It breaks my heart that they think the stress of uncertainly over the potential damage to our family is worth it. I still don't know what they think we will gain

Couldn't agree more @RedToothBrush . The more people who can do it, take some responsibility for their own pantry and their own supplies, tbe more people who actually need help from unavoidable difficulties can get that help. Don't get ina stupid fight over patchy supermarket shelves or get so distressed about it that actual bad things happen to you and yours. When you can take some reasonable and proportionate steps now and keep out of the way of emergency services doing their work for vulnerable neighbours.
I am confident I can keep my family fed without too much difference to our normal food for a period of time that suits my budget and the space available too me. Regardless of heavy snow or illness or Brexit. This confidence is passed on to my family and then we can get on with our daily lives. I'm not complacent but I'm not panicking either.

OMG that times article.

Words fail me.

Mathew Paris was on Irish radio just now, he thinks the GFA idea is just a delaying tactic, and May will keep on floating (ridiculous) ideas until March 29th when she can then say, ok I've tried everything, now it's my deal or no deal.

@pinkground202 Matthew Parris has a point.