Westminstenders: At the point of collapse?

[RedToothBrush]

May is in trouble. The Tory Party are in trouble.

Brexit is not in trouble, but we certainly are.

May's problem is she has no way forward.

One the one hand, the ERG will not accept anything to soften Brexit. That's an extension or Norway. Or a second ref. The story tonight emerging of Rees-Mogg as 'peacemaker' is quite the opposite. Its a thinly veiled threat saying if you do not please the ERG we will split and no longer support the PM. They will quiet simply threaten to collapse the government if May decides on that course. Their gamble will be that with the Tories ahead in the polls, they can get enough seats to enable no deal or cause enough chaos to cause accidental no deal. Thus forcing out One Nation Tories from the party.

One the other hand if May does not soften Brexit, rumour has it that 20 ministers including several cabinet, will walk. There is talk of cabinet ministers supporting a second ref and of others supporting Nick Boles proposals and demanding a free vote on the matter.

May on the other hand seemed determined to pursue plan A which is now plan B, in the form of the WA. In order to do this her plan was go for cross party talks and a compromise. The trouble is May doesn't understand what the word compromise means, because... Well see above about the two factions within the Tory Party presenting a bit of an issue to that. She felt the WA was the only way to stop the party split / stop the government collasping.

In addition to this we have Labour trying to avoid a split. Corbyn had his ridiculous starting point to cross party talks being completely impossible for May. You can't take no deal off the table if it is the table. Corbyn was essentially asking directly for a revocation or extension to A50 clause. May could not agree to that because... Well see above.

Corbyn is now talking about whipping against Grieve's amendment which sort to create a cross party consensus. Bizarrely grieves suggestion seemed to be for a minority rather than majority which rather undermined it, by Corbyn's real motivation is about his power, preventing a centre consensus and possible splits in the Labour Party.

Corbyn merely wants to be obstructive, and block everything now as he thinks May and the Conservative Party are doomed to fail and the government will fail. And arguably this is a good and sensible calculation as things stand.

May's next Meaningful vote is due on the 29th Jan. But 28th Feb is pencilled in for a general election. Meaning it would have to be called by Thursday this week.

Will it happen?

We find out, not on this thread, but the next one... Or maybe even the one after that!

PS there was a bomb in Londonderry. And there's talk of a bilateral treaty with Ireland (a euphemisms for renegotiating the GFA).

Brexit was always ultimately about NI.

Sorry. Did I go too dark last night? Unfortunately I fear it to be all too real. It's how you shift the Overton window. Until now we've danced around the issue of the GFA. The backstop has been the euphemism for it for a long time, and Brexiteers have openly said they don't want to be held by the backstop. The EU and Ireland have both said we wont be if we sort out a solution in good time. But any solution looks like its EEA based and its now clear that the Brexiteers unable to find a plan and in falling back on the ridiculous WTO idea reject that because their incompetence and nationalism holds no bounds. I've said for getting on for three years the biggest obstacle to Brexit is the Irish border. Yet only now are we finally talking about it. Only now have Brexiteers finally got the courage, and believe they have the public support, to mention the GFA by name. To me that does suggest it's firmly in their cross hairs.

May has long hated the HRA. The suspicion has been she confused the EHRC for the ECJ. Raab whilst a justice minister vowed to ditch the HRA but couldn't come up with an alternative plan (funny that). The HRA is the legislation that enshrines the EHRC into British law. It's also embedded in all the Devolution legislation.

Then May suddenly said we would definitely stay in the ECHR as it was a massive part of the WA. The EU won't have a trade deal with the UK without it. Indeed they only trade with Turkey cos they are signed up to it (the fact they are breaking it left right and centre is another matter).

But if we no deal May could say, we will leave the EHCR. We won't get a favourable deal with the EU but that's not the point. She's delivered a much desired prize for Brexiteers and the public who think the HRA is just about protecting terrorists and criminals not ordinary people. It's red meat to the base. It's like offering laws to get rid of 'undesirables'.

In one fell swoop the Tories get rid of HRA, devolution and all those pesky problems that politically they hate. Those pesky problems being the rights of the population for dignity, safety and security.

And of course those Henry VIII powers. Let's not forget them. No Deal Brexit is UGLY.

And this is before we get onto the damage to our international reputation. Though under the current climate dictatorships internationally might cheer at how it legitimatises how they treat their citizens. Donald Trump would be a happy man.

So few Brits really understand what's at stake with this.

Freedom.

The 'freedom of brexit' is slavery.

That's what no deal represents.

Seeing it written down is frightening but its a real possibility. We have let euphemisms for the Irish border issue - the backstop - fester for too long and now the narrative about that is way beyond our control.

We should all be terrorified.

If anyone could shake this into my DH please do so though. He doesn't see it. He thinks I've gone mad. But then he thought that about stockpiling only to find out all his mates are doing it too...

Oh dear @WhatWouldScoobyDoo . A big hug.

May will never revoke.

Correct.

Remainers hopes on this are unicorns. Examine May's history and beliefs. She will never do it.

Jessica elgot@jessicaelgot
The Good Friday Agreement plan doesn’t seem like a goer given the expletives that government sources have used to describe it.

Yeah but the idea is in the wild now. And that alone is dangerous

"Then May suddenly said we would definitely stay in the ECHR as it was a massive part of the WA. The EU won't have a trade deal with the UK without it."

I hadn't realised this - thanks Red! Presumably you mean a customs agreement/association agreement a la Turkey and Ukraine, as the EU has pure trade deals with lots of countries which aren't signatories to the ECHR.

Agree May will never revoke unilaterally (unless Parliament forces her to do so, and even then she would fight to the death).

On the issue of is it coincidence that Stormont is suspended while Brexit is happening I don’t think it is. A lot of the same factors are involved the incompetence and ignorance of the current UK government and the total intransigence of the DUP. The combination of the two is at the heart of both impasses

May/Corbyn won't do a thing but sensible MPs still exist, we are sovereign and parliament has control.

Gonna misquote Oprah but what you concentrate on grows.

Any one doing anything remotely good deserves our attention and praise. Not because of magic but because the culture of fear to go against will of the people for MPs is the highest I've ever known. They need to feel the there is positive regard for doing the right thing.

Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
1. Another week, when 'nothing has changed' - which is pretty extraordinary if you look at scale of defeat last week, but not that extraordinary when you look at the PM's choices so far and the parliamentary numbers

2. Without Labour front bench getting involved, a softening up of May's Brexit position might have pulled some Labour MPs across, but would there ever be enough to outweigh the dozens and dozens of eurosceptics who would have been furious? Discuss

3. But a softer brexit may be where Parliament pushes the govt in any case next week.... for a long time, some conspiracists around the place have believed this is what May ultimately wants - Parliament will take it out of her hands so she can't be blamed by her party

My 9 year old was instructed by her teacher to watch Newsround for information about Brexit, so we dutifully put it on.

Nothing about Brexit, but it led with a story about rhinos. Seemed appropriate: bad tempered, short-sighted, in danger of extinction - and I once read a story about one that fell off a cliff rather than mate with another rhino.
That describes the bullish, loud-mouthed Brexiteers to a T.

Long time lurker (read daily and I'm known amongst my friends as Brexit expert in large down to this thread!)

Off topic but I've had two sleepless nights in a row now about the spectre of no deal.

Does anyone know what the situation is with selling services to the EU in the event of No Deal and a reliance on WTO?

As WTO only covers goods I'm confused about what this means.

My DH's job is selling SaaS (software as a service) to countries across the EU. It's an American company with global offices (DH based in London). He currently also has non-EU clients that he deals with as well.

The question has been asked at his company with a resounding 'we don't know'

We are in the late stages of buying a house, with an increase in mortgage. Completely fine if we keep our jobs, if DH loses his job and can't find another one within a few months then things start to get scary for us.

Does anyone have any clue at all? I don't want to pull out if everything is likely to continue as before, but if it's a case of his job becoming much more difficult (or losing clients) then I want to make sure we are as protected as possible.

Fucking Brexit

Mumsnet features in a Times story this morning. Sadly not this insightful thread but a preppers one:

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-preppers-have-the-wrong-priorities-sxczt59pb?shareToken=7abe4cd9327767988c14261d2831cbfd

More silly cherry picking nonsense to get a journo byline.

I've been waiting for the sensible wing of the Labour Party to break cover and it seems Yvette Cooper has now. Any comments on whether her plan has any chance of helping avoid disaster?

So the guy in the Times says at worst import costs may go up so he can identify with preppers because when champagne is discounted he bulk buys.

Then he's dazzled us with his knowledge of 'out there' things like solar storms. Ooh, ooh, look over there everybody.

Yes. Well I think we'll move swiftly on. Nothing to see here...

Anyway, The Times lies. My journalist friend knows this very well. They write stories purely to promote a political viewpoint, totally devoid of facts. Not shamefaced about it either. May as well read the Sun or the Mail.

Just to help that journo - actual prepping rather than Brexit prepping does look at power outages, (re)building communities etc etc . However, Brexit prepping is what ordinary people are doing to build some short term resilience into their pantry in order to get through likely food distribution problems that would come with No Deal. Sarky mansplaining shit gets everywhere.

The man in the times article is so posh I cant read it.... it's not just what he writes but how he writes it. Literally rather watch paint dry then read his words.

No dealers and toxic masculinity (sorry, this won't cheer you up):

amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/21/england-rebel-spirit-no-deal-brexit

So basically women on MN who are prepping are smug and wrong says journalist who has an outside shed of spares to replace items when they run out.

rafa
For guys like him, women are wrong. Full stop.

Thats how i read it rafals

They want to drag us back to the kitchen by our hair and chain us to the sink.

I can’t read that article but when someone so anachronistic feels they must quote and write stories from sources they feel beneath them then it’s privably time to hang up the pencil

Probably

From EU no deal stuff
Financial services

After a thorough examination of the risks linked to a no deal scenario in the financial sector, the Commission has found that only a limited number of contingency measures is necessary to safeguard financial stability in the EU27.

The Commission has therefore adopted today the following acts:

A temporary and conditional equivalence decision for a fixed, limited period of 12 months to ensure that there will be no immediate disruption in the central clearing of derivatives.
A temporary and conditional equivalence decision for a fixed, limited period of 24 months to ensure that there will be no disruption in central depositaries services for EU operators currently using UK operators.
Two Delegated Regulations facilitating novation, for a fixed period of 12 months, of certain over-the-counter derivatives contracts, where a contract is transferred from a UK to an EU27 counterparty.

europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-18-6851_en.htm

Don't know about other sectors. This just to stabilise EU banks, it will help us but an exodus is likely.