Westminstenders: At the point of collapse?

[RedToothBrush]

May is in trouble. The Tory Party are in trouble.

Brexit is not in trouble, but we certainly are.

May's problem is she has no way forward.

One the one hand, the ERG will not accept anything to soften Brexit. That's an extension or Norway. Or a second ref. The story tonight emerging of Rees-Mogg as 'peacemaker' is quite the opposite. Its a thinly veiled threat saying if you do not please the ERG we will split and no longer support the PM. They will quiet simply threaten to collapse the government if May decides on that course. Their gamble will be that with the Tories ahead in the polls, they can get enough seats to enable no deal or cause enough chaos to cause accidental no deal. Thus forcing out One Nation Tories from the party.

One the other hand if May does not soften Brexit, rumour has it that 20 ministers including several cabinet, will walk. There is talk of cabinet ministers supporting a second ref and of others supporting Nick Boles proposals and demanding a free vote on the matter.

May on the other hand seemed determined to pursue plan A which is now plan B, in the form of the WA. In order to do this her plan was go for cross party talks and a compromise. The trouble is May doesn't understand what the word compromise means, because... Well see above about the two factions within the Tory Party presenting a bit of an issue to that. She felt the WA was the only way to stop the party split / stop the government collasping.

In addition to this we have Labour trying to avoid a split. Corbyn had his ridiculous starting point to cross party talks being completely impossible for May. You can't take no deal off the table if it is the table. Corbyn was essentially asking directly for a revocation or extension to A50 clause. May could not agree to that because... Well see above.

Corbyn is now talking about whipping against Grieve's amendment which sort to create a cross party consensus. Bizarrely grieves suggestion seemed to be for a minority rather than majority which rather undermined it, by Corbyn's real motivation is about his power, preventing a centre consensus and possible splits in the Labour Party.

Corbyn merely wants to be obstructive, and block everything now as he thinks May and the Conservative Party are doomed to fail and the government will fail. And arguably this is a good and sensible calculation as things stand.

May's next Meaningful vote is due on the 29th Jan. But 28th Feb is pencilled in for a general election. Meaning it would have to be called by Thursday this week.

Will it happen?

We find out, not on this thread, but the next one... Or maybe even the one after that!

PS there was a bomb in Londonderry. And there's talk of a bilateral treaty with Ireland (a euphemisms for renegotiating the GFA).

Brexit was always ultimately about NI.

Caught up (again) and PMK.

I’m not, as a rule, that much of a worrier. Bloody well am now though. A friend texted me earlier today saying ‘I don’t understand her!’ (May). My response: ‘You, me and the rest of the country’.

Tomorrow (more accurately, later on today) should be interesting. Either that, or frustratingly a rehash of last week.

Just had a reread. Even worse than I remembered and chilling set against the current cavalier attitude to Ireland and NI.

On a funnier note, I’d forgotten how thoroughly outraged Gove was that equality rights enshrined in the GFA could ’prevent the military from dismissing female soldiers when they get pregnant’ and endanger lives by forcing the fire brigade to hire women.

Oh dear Sleight maybe his leadership bid will not go so well after all.

The moon is starting to disappear.

Clouding over a bit here too (London).
Am going to try for sleep and see what tomorrow brings.

Re GFA - it was voted on by people in NI and Ireland. Agreed by over 70% of NI citizens and over 90% of Irish electorate. I can't imagine that the Irish government could change it without going back to the people and I could only imagine how that would go down!

Well woke up to visit loo and saw the eclipse between some clouds.

Ramblings- Now my brain is awake going over our political mess again and again. Despite being 1/4 Irish i find everything over there so hard to understand.

What I have never understood, and have asked before, is why the bizarre coincidence (timing wise) of all this mess is happening at the same time there's no Stormont sitting? Isvit a coincidence? I know problems started with the entirely unlinked renewable heat scandal business.But to what extent if any was the aftermath of the referendum a factor in Stormont collapsing? Or wasn't it a factor at all? There was stuff about Irish language legislation too?

But googling dates there's been a Parliamentary assembly

1920-1972 then
1998- January 2017

Isn't it needed now?

Surely if Parliament want a reason to delay Brexit (apart from a GE or PV) then a delay while Stormont is restored would be sensible? It could take years which would give time for a consensus on a plan for EU trade? A plan for non EU trade? Any bloody plan? Anything at all? But the govt or DUP wouldn't want Stormont restoring or wouldn't want a delay ?

Why are no politicians saying if something is this fraught and divided it's just not the right time.

Maybe this was all part of TMs cunning plan and this way she can revoke without losing face by blaming it all on the pesky Irish? After all she tried to deliver Brexit, got a WA from the EU and everything but selfish Labour, SNP etc wouldn't back it and there's no other way of leaving because of that bothersome Irish problem so it's not her fault etc etc. TM makes up some nonsense about setting up a committee to find a solution to the border problem with a report date of 10 years from now, in the meantime we stay part of the EU and we all forget about Brexit and it all quietly disappears?

Too much wishful thinking?

Also, if we do go ahead and crash out of the EU with no deal does that automatically mean that we break the GFA? So could our government face charges in an international court?

Poor woman (Mairead?) on R4 Today. Stop bloody interrupting her, Nick!

So Mother does that mean TM could face international charges (sorry don't know the correct legal term)? Surely the threat of that would be enough to stop her and all the No Deal supporting MPs?

Marmalade I think the one thing the passing years have shown us, is the May is utterly utterly devoid of the ability to perform the dazzling flexibility and imaginative multiple-outcome-computation necessary to develop any kind of 'cunning plan'.

Her only ability to surprise lies in her seemingly endless ability to disappoint.

I think if we broke the GFA there would be a repeat of the Troubles or certainly a massive increase in violence both in NI and mainland uk.
Fingers crossed today brings some sense.

I think if we broke the GFA, we would completely and utterly burn our bridges with the EU.

I actually also think the US would ditch us at light speed (for all Trump's blustering about TMs bad deal). The UK would become a pariah and a liability.

Yvette Cooper on Radio 4 at 8.10am to talk about het bill/amendment.

Reading and running so not much time to type - the international court of justice would be involved. I wonder how much Trump would allow trade if we annoy his religious Irish and patriotic followers who largely believe we are a bully and paid for the old IRA? One thing is certain we aren't making any friends globally here.
bit more detail on ICJ because I am rushing out

Also rather than messing with GFA ...What about messing with the wording of Parliament's oath to the Queen?

After all , loads of aspects of Parliamentary process have been messed with Henry VIII powers contempt etc.

Obviously the Tories won't do this as they lose their fragile confidence and supply majority.

But if there was any genuine attempt at Country before party, cohesion of all views , compromise , reaching out etc why not take steps to get all NI MPs to sit at Westminster?

I know I don't really understand all this and that it sounds radical but at the end of the day an oath to the Queen is just words and no big deal in reality, no more of a big deal than leaving the EU and trashing our economy and tampering with the GFA?

Radio news saying May is planning to go back to the EU "to ask for changes to the Irish backstop" and then put the WA to parliament again next week. So as we predicted she is going to cross out A at the top of her plan and write B.

If this is true than this really is madness. There is no way she is going to get EU to change the backstop and even less chance that she will get a majority on the WA.

Ok - link says opposite to what I thought - need to read it properly when I get back...

Thanks @StephanieNicks

May will never revoke. Because of the Will of the People and, likely, the Will of God.
How I dislike religion.

My DD woke up crying with “a nightmare about Brexit” last night.