Westminstenders: At the point of collapse?

[RedToothBrush]

May is in trouble. The Tory Party are in trouble.

Brexit is not in trouble, but we certainly are.

May's problem is she has no way forward.

One the one hand, the ERG will not accept anything to soften Brexit. That's an extension or Norway. Or a second ref. The story tonight emerging of Rees-Mogg as 'peacemaker' is quite the opposite. Its a thinly veiled threat saying if you do not please the ERG we will split and no longer support the PM. They will quiet simply threaten to collapse the government if May decides on that course. Their gamble will be that with the Tories ahead in the polls, they can get enough seats to enable no deal or cause enough chaos to cause accidental no deal. Thus forcing out One Nation Tories from the party.

One the other hand if May does not soften Brexit, rumour has it that 20 ministers including several cabinet, will walk. There is talk of cabinet ministers supporting a second ref and of others supporting Nick Boles proposals and demanding a free vote on the matter.

May on the other hand seemed determined to pursue plan A which is now plan B, in the form of the WA. In order to do this her plan was go for cross party talks and a compromise. The trouble is May doesn't understand what the word compromise means, because... Well see above about the two factions within the Tory Party presenting a bit of an issue to that. She felt the WA was the only way to stop the party split / stop the government collasping.

In addition to this we have Labour trying to avoid a split. Corbyn had his ridiculous starting point to cross party talks being completely impossible for May. You can't take no deal off the table if it is the table. Corbyn was essentially asking directly for a revocation or extension to A50 clause. May could not agree to that because... Well see above.

Corbyn is now talking about whipping against Grieve's amendment which sort to create a cross party consensus. Bizarrely grieves suggestion seemed to be for a minority rather than majority which rather undermined it, by Corbyn's real motivation is about his power, preventing a centre consensus and possible splits in the Labour Party.

Corbyn merely wants to be obstructive, and block everything now as he thinks May and the Conservative Party are doomed to fail and the government will fail. And arguably this is a good and sensible calculation as things stand.

May's next Meaningful vote is due on the 29th Jan. But 28th Feb is pencilled in for a general election. Meaning it would have to be called by Thursday this week.

Will it happen?

We find out, not on this thread, but the next one... Or maybe even the one after that!

PS there was a bomb in Londonderry. And there's talk of a bilateral treaty with Ireland (a euphemisms for renegotiating the GFA).

Brexit was always ultimately about NI.

Thought I posted a thanks but it didn't go apparently, so thanks red
Terrible news re ni car bomb

I work in the Civil Service. We are currently asking for volunteers for a 24/7, shift work, emergency control centre in the event of no-deal-Brexit

Oh fuck. In my heart of hearts I always thought May wouldn’t go through with no Deal. But she’s going to isn’t she.

All this just because she’d rather see the country burn than the Tories split.

What will the volunteers do?

My local Brexiteers are still banging on about the EU being economically screwed. Apparently ex-pats know this and are preparing to flock back to a post-Brexit UK to snap up the jobs.

I may have said we don't want people coming back here who couldn't hack it in relatively prosperous countries because with the predicted downturn we can't afford to look after them...

I'm not sure how that has gone down yet.

It seems to me that Brexiteers and their I'll are angry and feel under attack from others they perceive as getting something they should be entitled to. Instead of looking to themselves they project outwards and turn to the far right to blame others. I wonder how many of them, a few years ago, would have been comfortable with acknowledging that they support the hard right.

Oh yes, we are in desperate need of more retired pensioners. Particularly annoyed ones who didn't get a chance to vote and will probably have lost their savings with coming the downturn of sterling

The Tory party surely would split if she went through with a No Deal Brexit. Are the remainer Tories really so cowardly that they wouldn’t stand up to that?

The Tory party would split, and the Brexiter arm would be finished politically in the event of No Deal. I genuinely think it would be national emergency within a month.

Regarding Wolfgang Münchau‘s piece for the FT. I absolutely agree with this

It has been easy for them to hide behind the meaningless assertion of taking no deal off the table. But to actually do this, they will have to revoke Article 50, or agree to a deal they dislike

However, the fact is Parliament is forced to go one step at a time by the mentality of the electorate. If MPs came out right now and said ‘we’re taking No Deal and revoking’ there would be mayhem.

I think MPs have read the situation correctly that voters need to be guided step by step - trying to take No Deal down as a concept, and then directing traffic towards either extension or revoke. Revoke would be more acceptable if it followed a PV with Remain win rather than directed by Parliament.

Every day that goes by the polls seem to be accruing more Remain voters. So I think many Leavers are getting the picture. But that leaves the intransigent ignorant No Dealers who pose a stark threat in a PV and to any Parliamentary attempts to neuter the option.

I agree re: national emergency.

In milder moments I think we'll get the WA through and then be having this exact same thread in 2 years when we really do have to leave. Because the WA is only a preparation to leave.

Then I think we'll get a crash out and it will be some kind of weird chaos where Remainers still get blamed and people become entrenched in the hard right. Which will become the alt-right. As for the NI/GFA situation I can't even picture it.

And I can't even begin to think about how it has come to this.

My mum has watched the video I reposted earlier on WTO and said "shall we shoot ourselves now?"

I hope pp is right about the step by step approach to revoke.

I work in the Civil Service. We are currently asking for volunteers for a 24/7, shift work, emergency control centre in the event of no-deal-Brexit.

And still leavers just want to crack with it and believe nothing will change. So why are the civil service making these contingency plans then?

So why are the civil service making these contingency plans then?

They’re not. It’s scaremongering

Delurking...I've just pinched that YouTube link, posted on FB. It's do scary. I don't really understand much of it and I do find my wanting to believe it's all going to be fine but it's really not is it? I'm just realising how badly this will affect my children. Their futures are going to be very different. My DH is Irish, this feels like a massive kick in the teeth to him. Are people really do bloody minded they're willing to see the GFA fucked over this? I'm just old enough to remember being scared of the bombs growing up, my dad was on the border, British army, as was most of my family.

I'm waiting to see what my FB friend and colleague, an ardent leaver, who calls anyone who doesn't agree with him remoaners, says about it. No doubt he will say it's all lies. His stance was that we could have sovereignty back, and be less xenophobic, by letting 'more brown people' in, instead of being stuck with europeans. He is northern Irish, loyalist, but lived here all his life, I just don't get it. He is a massive twat.

Depressing reading. All roads lead to no deal.

chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2019/01/a-dangerous-political-void.html

Robert Peston

"The government latest possible Brexit plan B, the idea of replacing the widely hated Northern Ireland backstop with a bilateral treaty between the Republic of Ireland and the UK, is never going to work.

For the EU, it is simply crackers.

The whole reason for the backstop being in the Withdrawal Agreement that sets out the terms of the UK's divorce from the EU is that the Republic's border with Northern Ireland would after Brexit be the external border of the EU's single market - and therefore has to be governed by a treaty between the UK and EU, and not one between the UK and the ROI.

An official from an EU capital also questioned whether the Republic could possibly accept "a bilateralisation that would deprive it of the clout of the EU".

For what it's worth, about half the cabinet seem to know this idea is never going to fly. One senior minister scathingly said about the plan "we need to think out of the box given where we are but I am not sure we can dignify this as an idea".

Another added: "if we are going to get Brexit it's us who will have to compromise, and especially the Brexiteers; the EU is simply never going to move that far".

So another way out of the Brexit impasse for Theresa May bites the dust.

Oh well.

And as the minutes to Brexit day on 29 March keep ticking past, the roadblocks just keep being erected.

One important new one is that Leave Means Leave, the cross-party pro-Brexit campaigning group, has appointed silk and solicitors to sue the government to make sure the UK can participate in elections to the European Parliament in May, in the event that the UK applies for and is granted to a delay to Brexit day.

Leave Means Leave will also write to the Electoral Commission this week to make sure that the Commission has the wherewithal to oversee those elections, if it comes to that.

You might wonder why a Brexit movement would want those elections to take place here.

It could be a gambit of semi genius by them - because under the proportional representation system used for those elections the UK would probably send to the European Parliament a preponderance of MEPs who all hate the EU.

This is all the more likely because Nigel Farage has confirmed that he would re-enter active politics as a candidate for a brand new party, with the name - you guessed it - of the "Brexit Party".

He told me that he had given his blessing to another former UKIPer, Catherine Blaiklock, to set up the new party. And that although he he has no desire to become a campaigning politician again, if the government "drops the Brexit ball, I will be back".

For those who remember when Millwall supporters were the most truculent and troublesome in the world, the outcome of UK elections to the EU parliament in just four months would probably be the equivalent of sending Millwall supporters into the Vatican for the Easter service.

Which could be seen as performance art on a national scale - or may better be seen as a warning to the rest of the EU not to allow the UK to delay its Brexit, should the government be forced to request a Brexit delay (as per my note of earlier today)."

PMK

**Long time lurker but coming out of the woodwork to post as becoming desperate. You know that thing Noel Edmonds does where you tell the universe what you want and it becomes true or something like that? I'm now resorting to that.

So my plea to the universe is that our esteemed leaders grow up and issue a statement saying " We're sorry, we tried to deliver Brexit, but we can't. If we leave the EU, our country and all our people will suffer. We're sorry that you were lied to during the referendum campaign, but we cannot deliver on what you were promised. For the sake of peace in Northern Ireland, and the well-being of you all, we have decided to revoke Article 50. We will instead work on reforming the EU as a member and aim to address your concerns from within."

my sentiments too but unfortunately TM has not got the guts to do that and she puts party before the country. Shame really

Will this be tomo's plan B - a bilateral treaty? She did the same with chequers plan, we all heard it was shite before it was annouced and she carried on regardless. Ditto the WA.

Um, pootles
You might infirm your local Brexiteers that - au contraire - there is a braindrain out of the UK into the EU.
I'm a scientist who activated my backup plan immediately after the ref and emigrated to Germany

Since then, particularly recently, the braindrain has speeded up among scientists and engineers;
lots of Brits & E27 expats in the UK networking to find an EU job.
I hear that some finance bods have moved to Frankfurt too - many property ads etc suddenly in English

Current Brit Expats likely to return to the UK are NOT doing so because of EU downturn, but because:

• Their jobs depend on FOM outside their E27 host country. No FOM, no job.

• They have small Sterling pensions which now buy much less in Euros, so they can no longer afford to live abroad.

• Anyone on UK state pension after No Deal who doesn't have private health insurance

• under current EU rules, the UK would be paying the host country for their state healthcare. If this stops, they won't be able to take out private care aged 65+ and they won't be allowed to stay without insurance.

Populism has pushed real discussion and debate off the table. We need wisdom and philosophy, not prejudice and a celebration of ignorance.

I think May might have sealed the demise of the Tory party well, Cameron and Eton chums to be fair - the irony. I see apparently Labour have lost one hundred and fifty thousand voters...

We need our very own Yoda.

According to Twitter, plan B is going back to EU to work more on backstop?!
She really is resigned to no-deal if she can’t squeak WA through at last minute. There’s no other way to interpret her actions now.

And that although he he has no desire to become a campaigning politician again, if the government drops the Brexit ball, I will be back

Since when.did Farage stop being a campaigning politician? He's been speaking at brexit rallies and doing interviews all this time. Does he have amnesia?

I think so many brexit supporters are doubling down on their decision because they don't want to admit that they were wrong and that the promised land is not going to happen. A bit like me when I buy yet another diet book - it wasn't the concept of dieting that was wrong, or my inability to follow said diet, it just wasn't the right book but if I keep going I will find the holy grail. Brexiteers holy grail is now no deal because that's all that's left without having to admit we might need the EU even just a little bit in an EEA/EFTA kind of way.

But as Alex Andreou said on a remainiacs podcast we don't need to make them admit they were wrong or eat humble pie. We just need to persuade them.enough that if there's a second ref, in the privacy of the polling booth, they think twice and tick the other box. Even if they come out after and tell everyone they voted no deal or whatever.

FPTP system is not democratic.... IMV.

So we may have a Farage led Brexit party, and a Lib Dems stay party.

Neither of whom will gain enough seats to make any difference at all.

So if a GE happens (cannot see it myself, but who knows?) It will be Tories or Labour, both of whom seem to want to Brexit immediately.

TBH if there is a GE and no party has overall majority, I would much prefer Farage and/or Cable holding the balance of power under Confidence and Supply than the DUP tbh.

That would depend on how many seats the Farage/LDs get, etc.

But we are living through history now. That is my only consolation.

Good thread for Roland Smith - who was pro-Leave.

Roland Smith
‏*@rolandmcs*

Eurosceptic argument - as it was - held together rather well around a single unifying idea: that the UK could not historically, culturally, spiritually, politically go where the EU is heading....to (crudely) "a country called Europe".
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Britain's opt-outs and exceptions were testament to that fact.

'Brexitism' then grew out of euroscepticism in the 2000s because of the feeling that despite opt-outs, the integrationist ratchet was still dragging us where we didn't want to go. /2

Yet the eurosceptic movement (as it was still called), still roughly held together despite the narcissism of small differences. /3

But somewhere in its "policy", euroscepticism had a dirty secret (to match Remainers' dirty secret - more on that another time)...

Specifically, Eurosceptics didn't have a well-formed idea of how to leave the EU or indeed whether any alternative was really palatable. /4

From about 2011 onwards, some Brexiters explored exit methods. EFTA/EEA featured heavily, including for Farage. Liam Fox even suggested continuing CU and single market. Davis did similar.

The IEA offered a Brexit prize in 2013-14 to try and resolve the point. /5

But the IEA competition proved how difficult and contentious the method of exit was. EEA-based entries were kicked out, while the winning entry from an obscure civil servant quickly sank without trace. /6

The IEA competition spawned 'Flexcit' - an EEA-based solution from @richardaenorth, rejected by the IEA panel.

EEA-based proposals were nothing new but from 2013 to 2016, Flexcit went much wider & deeper than anything before. /7

But like all exit methods discussed within the eurosceptic movement, as the detail formed, it simply turned off a whole load of sceptics. Flexcit thus became a minority sport (although Owen Paterson promoted it in 2014). /8

In 2015, as the referendum drew closer, Flexcit was by far the most detailed workable solution on the table even though it had plenty of enemies.

Dominic Cummings and Arron Banks were intrigued by it. Banks briefly adopted it for LeavedotEU. /9

Banks had assumed Farage would be OK with this, not least because Farage was still toying with EEA in 2015. But the backlash against Banks' decision was quick and Flexcit was swiftly dropped. /10

Cummings went the other way and deliberately adopted no plan in particular, preferring to focus the Vote Leave campaign on what it didn't want.

He could see that trying to get eurosceptics behind a plan had a history of failure, and just fostered division among Leavers. /11

Indeed the only thing that united Leavers was to leave the EU.

Despite the WTO Option being dismissed for years (and was why Leavers sought an exit method), it represented "Just Leave!" - the fallback that was closest to full sovereignty and so required little explanation. /12

That is why, in the final analysis, 'WTO' has gained traction. It drives a coach & horses through awkward detail, explanations and nuance which have flummoxed thinking Leavers for years.

It's the I-have-no-solutions-and-can't-be-arsed-to-think option. /13

The WTO Option is not only the default/fallback, it also represents the end of the road for Leavers, where all options and thinking have run out. A scream into the void of "Oh F* This!" /14

May's mistakes were:

a) to follow the Vote Leave playbook/red lines AND
b) to then come up with (or rather stumble into) a specific plan to resolve them.

Eurosceptic history should have showed her that any exit plan loses Leavers' support the moment it is made flesh. /15

Because the awful truth should now be clear: there is no exit option that "works". The history of trying to find one should have proved that. /16

2016 may have been seen as "our last chance to leave", but Flexcit was, in my view, the last narrow & precarious ledge by which to do it.

With that gone, there is no purpose in continuing to try. /17

If Brexit is stopped, there would then need to be a truth-and-reconciliation moment, where all sides and 'wings' of sides (including mine and including Remain) confess to their own mistakes and culpability in this mess.

Only then can we all move on. /ends
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PS: A bit more history of EFTA/EEA in eurosceptic circles here:

The genesis of EEA/EFTA idea came from Bruges Grp starting with Watney (2004); Hannan - EFTA (2005); Van Randwyck - EEA interim (2011, 2013)

PPS: And here:Roland Smith added,

Marcus Watney reminding us what a small Bruges Group working group did back in 2003. [from Bruges Group paper 'Emergency Exit'] #Brexit

I've thought from the soon after the ref that there will need to a be Truth and Reconciliation exercise.

Can we give TM a dizapam or something? She's coming across odd. A sedative might stop that ridgity of hers and she'll be more flexible of mind.