Westminstenders: At the point of collapse?

[RedToothBrush]

May is in trouble. The Tory Party are in trouble.

Brexit is not in trouble, but we certainly are.

May's problem is she has no way forward.

One the one hand, the ERG will not accept anything to soften Brexit. That's an extension or Norway. Or a second ref. The story tonight emerging of Rees-Mogg as 'peacemaker' is quite the opposite. Its a thinly veiled threat saying if you do not please the ERG we will split and no longer support the PM. They will quiet simply threaten to collapse the government if May decides on that course. Their gamble will be that with the Tories ahead in the polls, they can get enough seats to enable no deal or cause enough chaos to cause accidental no deal. Thus forcing out One Nation Tories from the party.

One the other hand if May does not soften Brexit, rumour has it that 20 ministers including several cabinet, will walk. There is talk of cabinet ministers supporting a second ref and of others supporting Nick Boles proposals and demanding a free vote on the matter.

May on the other hand seemed determined to pursue plan A which is now plan B, in the form of the WA. In order to do this her plan was go for cross party talks and a compromise. The trouble is May doesn't understand what the word compromise means, because... Well see above about the two factions within the Tory Party presenting a bit of an issue to that. She felt the WA was the only way to stop the party split / stop the government collasping.

In addition to this we have Labour trying to avoid a split. Corbyn had his ridiculous starting point to cross party talks being completely impossible for May. You can't take no deal off the table if it is the table. Corbyn was essentially asking directly for a revocation or extension to A50 clause. May could not agree to that because... Well see above.

Corbyn is now talking about whipping against Grieve's amendment which sort to create a cross party consensus. Bizarrely grieves suggestion seemed to be for a minority rather than majority which rather undermined it, by Corbyn's real motivation is about his power, preventing a centre consensus and possible splits in the Labour Party.

Corbyn merely wants to be obstructive, and block everything now as he thinks May and the Conservative Party are doomed to fail and the government will fail. And arguably this is a good and sensible calculation as things stand.

May's next Meaningful vote is due on the 29th Jan. But 28th Feb is pencilled in for a general election. Meaning it would have to be called by Thursday this week.

Will it happen?

We find out, not on this thread, but the next one... Or maybe even the one after that!

PS there was a bomb in Londonderry. And there's talk of a bilateral treaty with Ireland (a euphemisms for renegotiating the GFA).

Brexit was always ultimately about NI.

Not done so yet as only so much my head can take on a daily basis.
I've learnt more about history this weekend than at school I think.

I remember being stuck in the tube for 30 minutes in a tunnel as there was a bomb scare at the next station. I was only 13 and on my own and remember being really scared that an explosion would come down the tunnel.

The virtuous victim hood leavers love so much isn't worth the thrill of name calling

I’m with mouse on this. Yes Brexit is complete and utter folly. But I all we achieve by calling people thick is that they dig their heels and entrench their position further.

Bit of a cross post with DGR there.

Apparently rather than "thick as pigshit" I've gone for "complete knob".

Once my blood pressure has returned to normal I might be willing to downgrade this to "wilfully ignorant".

Brexiteer - violent, mysoginist and racist.

Leaver - gullible

Any better?

I've always tried to make it crystal clear that I have no problem with Leavers - people who understood the issues, but felt voting Leave was the better choice (probably extinct now, I've not met or read any for ages who still thinks that).

Meanwhile Brexiteers are people who either did not understand the issues, misunderstood the issues, or who chose to "misunderstand the issues, and whose sum knowledge of the issues since the vote has increased by the square root of fuck all.

Two words for two very different beasts.

As a rule, Brexiteers announce themselves within a few seconds. As soon as they do, I personally disengage. The old adage about wrestling a pig has never been more apposite.

If it was just silly misunderstandings over the UKs GDP, or discussions about the Duckworth-Lewis method that Brexit was about, I would be much more laid back. However it's not. It's tapped into a deeply unpleasant vein of the most disgusting collections of -isms I can recall in politics. Racism, sexism, ageism. All given wings by the breath of Brexit.

Not only am I old enough to remember the IRA bombs in the 1970s. I'm also old enough to remember teachers calling the refugees from Idi Amin "pakis" and asking my DM why one teacher kept on calling me an "eytie" and telling me that his Dad would be shocked to think that "eyeties" could settle in England.

But, hey, forget all that ... let's all come together, eh ?

don't even bother using Google to figure out whether what they think they know is correct.

There was another thread where a poster (let's not say which way they voted) was repeatedly claiming something, ironically on the basis of their expertise experience, which could have been checked with 30 seconds' Googling. They were corrected several times and questioned on a specific claim they made several times. Nope, just doubling down on their superior knowledge with a firm @ to posters who questioned them.

Finally rather than admit they were wrong, they posted a meaningless bunch of stuff something to do with "people should look up stuff for themselves (IRONY!)" and "being tired of scaremongering" without @ing any of the posters who had engaged, and simply melted away from the thread never to return.

I would have found it funny, but of course really it was tragic, and I would put money on the likelihood that they learned nothing from the experience, except perhaps a sense of inflated entitled grievance at [bullying hectoring elite traitorous saboteurs etc etc].

DG when the Gatwick drones caused problems, you mentioned the IRA and I must say it was my first thought too (after kids messing about), that it was a trial run of something that could cause maximum disruption for minimum effort. The following Heathrow drone incident seemed to be a damp squib and FWIW I think was not related.
I remember in the 80s having rail journeys disrupted by bombs (or warnings of bombs) at railway stations - at Reading for example - but nowadays surely it would be easier and very effective just to hack and disable signalling systems and so on (well those that actually have been upgraded from the mechanical systems, if any).
And if I can think it, anyone can. Including those with the skills to do it.

But I all we achieve by calling people thick is that they dig their heels and entrench their position further.

I think they're already so entrenched their boots come out in Australia.

In the meantime, pigshit thickness should always be called out.

Remember, Brexiteers don't care about facts. No matter how carefully, how completely, how thoroughly, how award-winningly you try and explain something, they just won't engage the "thinking" bit of their brains to deal with it.

Also, as confessed uptread, I'm happy to admit I was thick as pigshit about the FTPA. I dismissed all expert opinion about the pitfalls at the time as biased and having an agenda to stop the evolution of the electoral system into a more modern one that gave the electorate more of a say. I'm now very unhappy to admit - but admit I will - that I could not have been more wrong, the warnings were correct (and prophetic) in every respect. I weep salt tears for my past arrogance and maybe - just maybe - part of my vitriol for Breixteers is a reflection of my own self-loathing for the knowledge that maybe in some way, I might have some complicity in the unfolding horror. For horror it is.

(will that do ?)

Ikea currently have a product called FÖRSLAG.

Its for a kitchen knife. Which does make me raise an eyebrow. Apparently its swedish for 'suggestions' which doesn't really help!

This makes even less sense and unfortunate when you know that Ikea has a naming system for products:

Bathroom articles = Names of Swedish lakes and bodies of water
Bed textiles = Flowers and plants
Beds, wardrobes, hall furniture = Norwegian place names
Bookcases = Professions, Scandinavian boy’s names
Bowls, vases, candle and candle holders = Swedish place names, adjectives, spices, herbs, fruits and berries
Boxes, wall decoration, pictures and frames, clocks = Swedish slang expressions, Swedish place names
Children’s products = Mammals, birds, adjectives
Desks, chairs and swivel chairs = Scandinavian boy’s names
Fabrics, curtains = Scandinavian girl’s names
Garden furniture = Scandinavian islands
Kitchen accessories = Fish, mushrooms and adjectives
Lighting = Units of measurement, seasons, months, days, shipping and nautical terms, Swedish place names
Rugs = Danish place names
Sofas, armchairs, chairs and dining tables = Swedish place names

Ikea are well known for this type of thing though:
www.buzzfeed.com/leonoraepstein/rather-unfortunate-ikea-product-names
24 Rather Unfortunate Ikea Product Names

'Forgive them lord for they know not what they do' seems vaguely appropriate.

Leaver - gullible

Not from me. I might disgree with their thoughts and reasons, but they were certainly aware what the main thrust of the debate was. Bearing in mind a lot has emerged since the vote that no one knew or thought of at the time.

no Leavers are well worth discussing and debating with. The main issue is, most of them have since reversed their decision. So they don't have anything to defend now.

Some people like to 'know stuff'.

Some people don't really care. Yet they have a desire to take back control.

There is something to be learnt here.

And the Swedish attempt at world dominance is that all the items retain their Swedish names throughout the world, and only the Swedes (and perhaps Norwegians) can pronounce them properly.

I have a sneaking feeling - as per sci-fi - terrorism in the 2000s will not look like we remember it (what's the old canard about being prepared to fight the last war ?).

The prevalence of social media - along with most governments complete lack of understanding of it - suggests that information warfare will probably be the way ahead. Probably best not to do too much thinking of the subject here, but suffice is to say bombs and the like are incredibly inefficient weapons in the grand scheme of things.

Remember, Brexiteers don't care about facts.

“A lie can run round the world before the truth has got its boots on.”

I think they're already so entrenched their boots come out in Australia

Yes there’s definitely some who will maintain their position no matter what. I’m just mindful of others who could be reading their posts, initially agreeing with them. If you point out the flaws in their arguement you probably won’t win over the very entrenched person but you might win over the lurkers.

“A lie can run round the world before the truth has got its boots on.”

There's a cosmic irony in the fact that Churchill seems to get quoted an awful lot by Remainers. I say that because whilst I'm not sure if that quote is attributable (without Googling, and where's the fun in that ?) I'm pretty certain this is:

The truth is so precious, it must be protected by a bodyguard of lies

I know Churchill is a divisive figure at times, but I think it's safe to say he could and would never have been a Brexiteer. Even were he to abandon his views on a united Europe, I'm certain he would have had some cogent and eloquent reasoning that would have been worthy of consideration and debate. Almost as far from "I don't like foreigners" as you could get ?

Yes there’s definitely some who will maintain their position no matter what. I’m just mindful of others who could be reading their posts, initially agreeing with them. If you point out the flaws in their arguement you probably won’t win over the very entrenched person but you might win over the lurkers.

Any lurker who is really fact-seeking will pretty quickly twig there's precious little of that in Camp Brexiteer.

DG it is an irony, because there seems to be no consensus on who actually first expressed the sentiment. Almost certainly, not Churchill. In fact, I deliberately chose the version espoused by the late great Sir Terry Pratchett in The Truth

Wolfgang Munchau @EuroBriefing
My FT column on why the risks of a no-deal Brexit are much higher than you might think.

I haven't put the link to the original article as its paywalled.

However:
johnib.wordpress.com/2019/01/20/the-self-fulfilling-prophecy-of-a-no-deal-brexit/

Its an interesting article which is more from an EU point of view than a UK one.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/20/nigel-farage-to-lead-new-pro-brexit-party-if-eu-departure-delayed-ukip?CMP=twt_gu&__twitter_impression=true
Nigel Farage to lead new pro-Brexit party if EU departure delayed

Former Ukip leader says he will ‘re-enter the fray’ if Brexit is put back beyond 29 March

DG it is an irony, because there seems to be no consensus on who actually first expressed the sentiment. Almost certainly, not Churchill.

Unless (and even if) there's something specific to a timeframe, if it's a pretty obvious or commonplace thought, it's probably been knocking around for a while ... both Greeks and Romans were quite good at pithy epithets ... with the added advantage we sometimes know who actually said them. Although even back then I guess there was a market for "the sort of thing they'd say" quotes. Caesar being a victim.

Then there's the poetry (God ! the endless ! poetry !!!!). Ovid, Horace ? I still like Juvenal - in particular the one about the water clock.

I've just watched this and amazingly my little boy has allowed me to do so as we scoffed our spaghetti (we enjoyed it so much yesterday we had it again). I've forwarded it to my mum.

I know it's been posted up thread or on another thread but posting again for others who like me, didn't watch at the time, and can't remember where the link was.

Nigel Farage to lead new pro-Brexit party if EU departure delayed

Well that will split the UKIP vote.