Westminstenders: At the point of collapse?

[RedToothBrush]

May is in trouble. The Tory Party are in trouble.

Brexit is not in trouble, but we certainly are.

May's problem is she has no way forward.

One the one hand, the ERG will not accept anything to soften Brexit. That's an extension or Norway. Or a second ref. The story tonight emerging of Rees-Mogg as 'peacemaker' is quite the opposite. Its a thinly veiled threat saying if you do not please the ERG we will split and no longer support the PM. They will quiet simply threaten to collapse the government if May decides on that course. Their gamble will be that with the Tories ahead in the polls, they can get enough seats to enable no deal or cause enough chaos to cause accidental no deal. Thus forcing out One Nation Tories from the party.

One the other hand if May does not soften Brexit, rumour has it that 20 ministers including several cabinet, will walk. There is talk of cabinet ministers supporting a second ref and of others supporting Nick Boles proposals and demanding a free vote on the matter.

May on the other hand seemed determined to pursue plan A which is now plan B, in the form of the WA. In order to do this her plan was go for cross party talks and a compromise. The trouble is May doesn't understand what the word compromise means, because... Well see above about the two factions within the Tory Party presenting a bit of an issue to that. She felt the WA was the only way to stop the party split / stop the government collasping.

In addition to this we have Labour trying to avoid a split. Corbyn had his ridiculous starting point to cross party talks being completely impossible for May. You can't take no deal off the table if it is the table. Corbyn was essentially asking directly for a revocation or extension to A50 clause. May could not agree to that because... Well see above.

Corbyn is now talking about whipping against Grieve's amendment which sort to create a cross party consensus. Bizarrely grieves suggestion seemed to be for a minority rather than majority which rather undermined it, by Corbyn's real motivation is about his power, preventing a centre consensus and possible splits in the Labour Party.

Corbyn merely wants to be obstructive, and block everything now as he thinks May and the Conservative Party are doomed to fail and the government will fail. And arguably this is a good and sensible calculation as things stand.

May's next Meaningful vote is due on the 29th Jan. But 28th Feb is pencilled in for a general election. Meaning it would have to be called by Thursday this week.

Will it happen?

We find out, not on this thread, but the next one... Or maybe even the one after that!

PS there was a bomb in Londonderry. And there's talk of a bilateral treaty with Ireland (a euphemisms for renegotiating the GFA).

Brexit was always ultimately about NI.

I've noticed the "where should I holiday in Europe" thread and my face was in equal measure. Er, hello!!! BREXIT!!! Obviously passed them by

Yes a few ppl on my fb are booking things abroad (or telling everyone they are). One friend sadbitnwuld venom because she will use her EU passport . I did also suggest she exchanged money before March as sterling likely to crash...which she seemed to agree was a good idea. Didn't seem bothered about driving licence, flights or insurance at all.

I think the bomb in Derry may be the thing that breaks the deadlock. I'm going to be wildly stereotypical here, but I imagine most leave voters are old enough to remember the troubles and if the reality of Brexit is that we're going to go back to that, I'm hopeful they'd accept us not leaving the EU if it means we can avoid the end of peace in Northern Ireland. If I was an MP I'd be asking my constituents what's more important? Taking back this mythical control or living your life without fear of a bomb threat?

Bloody phone! * said it would not matter because she would use her EU passport. Although her husband and child don't have those...

I've never been to IKEA either
If I ever see one, I'll definitely try the meatballs - presumably not in a flatpack ?
< scuttles away in shame, to Google nearest IKEA >

I think the bomb in Derry may be the thing that breaks the deadlock

I wish that was true but I think most people just don’t give a shit about NI

{ This doesn’t mean I don’t lead an exciting life, I do most of my shopping in Aldi.}
Born. Do yourself a favour, go to an IKEA and as long as it is not the weekend, your head will spin with the myriad of things that you can do with a small allen key.
Going at the weekend might turn you into a homicidal maniac though.

marmalade Polls a while ago showed that most Leavers think Brexit is worth it, whatever happens to NI (or Scotland)
My memories of the Troubles were that only bombs on the British mainland actually got people talking about the Troubles
and that only bombs in the City financial districts got the govt talking to SInn Fein

I had a dream I was staying in TMs flat the other night. She just sat in the kitchen and never moved or spoke.

It's blatantly obvious that other countries are waiting to see if we no deal brexit, because if we do we will be desperate and they will literally just have to pass over a trade deal and wait for us to sign it. And if we refuse they will say ok then and wait for us to come back a few months down the line.

I wonder if 52% of the country wanted to get rid of the welfare state or the NHS or the equality act whether Labour would be so keen to enable it.

I have never been to Ikea my nearest one is 100 miles away. And before that opened last year it was 200 miles away.

BCF
IKEA in Europe is fine. The stores are the same but the customers aren't crazy.
Be prepared to come home with stuff you didn't know existed, let alone wanted. Damn clever marketing!

I second NEVER GO TO IKEA ON A WEEKEND but especially NEVER GO TO IKEA ON A BANK HOLIDAY WEEKEND

@SingingBabooshkaBadly
I also listen to radio phone ins on Brexit regularly and I'm always astounded. The latest one I laughed out loud at (out of desperation):
Caller: we just need to get on with it
Radio presenter: what about the NI border?
Caller: what about it?
Radio presenter: you know..hard border...violence ..
Caller: we'll figure something out
Radio presenter: like what?
Caller: I don't know, some technological solution
Radio presenter: oh really? Who's working on that then?
Caller: Hmm, Microsoft is!

Lol

My DD and family always like to go to our local IKEA in France as it is so utterly civilised. 😊

Bigchoc ThereWill and now I'm back to despairing again .

but I imagine most leave voters are old enough to remember the troubles and if the reality of Brexit is that we're going to go back to that, I'm hopeful they'd accept us not leaving the EU if it means we can avoid the end of peace in Northern Ireland.

We've already established that Brexiteers are thick as pigshit. They will have learned nothing from the troubles (if they can really remember them) so that's a dead duck. We've also established that for a lot of them, the fantasy of the UK as a global colossus is a reality. So I would expect the Brexiteer reaction to be "bring it on". After all, it won't be their children being blown to bits. It's always easy to be brave when other people have to fight.

That said, I would be disappointed if any backlash from the IRA end of the field was a simply rehash of the 1970s. Just because Brexiteers are stuck in the 1970s, doesn't mean we all are. I would be thinking that we'd see a new approach intended to hit the moneymen. For example one lone drone shutting a major international airport for over a day seems to be an excellent used of (pardon the expression) "bangs per buck". After all, the takeaway message from that was (a) no one has yet been caught and (b) the police hardly covered themselves in glory (especially when they have to payout to the innocent arrestees).

Given that hackers can take control of cranes on building sites (www.theregister.co.uk/2019/01/15/even_cranes_are_hackable_trend_micro/) then I'd hope that extra-political direct action in the 2000s is a little more targeted and less random than the 1900s.

I grew up in London in the 1970s and 80s. Bomb scares were a way of life, and in my first job, we had to have a briefing on how to deal with a terrorist attack (I worked in a "sensitive" area). The office I worked in was above the blast zone for a bomb, and colleagues saw and heard the Hyde Park bomb which went off not long before I started. So my prayers are with all the others that this doesn't go back to there.

BigChoc
I love the pickled fish salads in Ikea
and the free refills on coffee
misses point of thread

Manchester remembers the 1995 bomb all too well. Even if idiots don't care about NI then they'll care about the mainland uk (if that's the right term?). Manchester votes remain though so places like there aren't likely to be gunning for brexit. Leeds however... I was sickened by the photos of yellow vests yesterday there. Just looked like NF twats and I assume that's what they are but in a new uniform.

My memories of the Troubles were that only bombs on the British mainland actually got people talking about the Troubles

Talking, yes. Understanding ? - never happened. As you must be able to see reading the unmitigated shite being trotted out on these very threads.

Are the new British passports ready for the 29th March?

We've already established that Brexiteers are thick as pigshit

No other remainer thinks this. This view represents the posters own views and can not be extrapolated to apply to all Remainers.

I grew up in the IRA era of bomb threats in England. The amount of times we had to evacuate a train station, shopping centre, hospital etc over the course of my childhood made the Troubles seem close. My perception is skewed due to age and my mum said it was very nice of the IRA to always call first so we mustn't worry but always leave when told to. It was just a part of life as far as I know and I'm not sure people would take it into consideration in regards to brexit.

I brought it up with leavers during the ref, they did not give one shit.

No other remainer thinks this. This view represents the posters own views and can not be extrapolated to apply to all Remainers.

Oh, there are some here who'd agree with me. The key is the distinction between "Leaver" and "Brexiteer". But anyone who makes an important political decision based on a pack of lies without making the most cursory of attempts to understand, and then continues to resist any attempt to understand seems a poster child for "thick as pigshit" to me. Although I'm open to another phrase, if anyone cares to suggest one ?

The virtuous victim hood leavers love so much isn't worth the thrill of name calling.

Leaver friend has apparently not seen news of the bomb but says we cannot be held hostage by terrorists. Even had the gall to say we also were in India but they don't have a problem with us!
That is the mentality. Unbelievable.

I've tried very, very, very hard to stop looking down on Leavers as being idiots lately.

But then I just read some of that No Deal thread.

Fuck me. They don't know the last thing (which is fine) but don't even bother using Google to figure out whether what they think they know is correct.

One poster thinks No Deal will be fine because we already deal with the US, Canada and others on WTO rules 🤯

One minute of searching on Google, that's all it would fucking take.

Apologies for the rants swearing...may need alcohol. I don't think I can even read the rest of the thread. I took a screenshot of one post for posterity though. When it all goes to shit in the event of no deal I'm going to see if I can get that person to admit they were a complete knob.