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Brexit

Westminstenders: Stalemate

958 replies

RedToothBrush · 17/01/2019 20:54

After May's Meaningless Vote defeat and Corbyns Pointless Vote for Your Own Party defeat we are well and truly at Stalemate.

May has invited other parties to come and talk to her to find a compromise. Except she has so many red lines all she is asking is for everyone else to compromise whilst she gets exactly what she wants.

Corbyn made a tactical error in not initially speaking to May, so now she gets to say that its Labour who are being difficult and not wanting to work together in the national interest.

Corbyn has in addition put down the red line of saying he won't talk to May until she agrees to drop no deal. Except since no deal is the default until an alternative solution is agreed! Corbyn is expecting May to say that she would revoke if there was no alternative agreed, whilst is isn't really reasonable from a compromise point of view.

They are as bad as each other. Both too stubborn for the country to move forward. Its long been said that they were alike in this respect, but having it put to the test about which is more stubborn has the potential to destory the country in the process.

In addition to this, Leadsom has removed all other Brexit related HoC business from the schedule until after the 29th January. This is a blantant attempt to try and stop backbenchers having the opportunity to table pesky amendments which the government don't like.

The 29th January is due to be the Meaningless Vote II. Given that May has made it clear that in her head 'compromise' means 'do exactly what I want and capitulate' it looks like the Withdrawal Agreement will be represented to parliament to vote on with little change. Perhaps with a few amendments there designed to attract support, though it remains to be seen where this support will come from given the spectulator level of the rejection the HoC gave it. May's Plan is literally to run the clock down and hold a gun of no deal to the head of remain leaning MPs or to scare Brexiteers by suggesting that she might revoke or there might be an extension.

Its beyond farce.

Of course the role of the Speaker becomes paramount.

Technically speaking no bill can be presented to the HoC twice in the same parliament. Its against the rules. So how is May going to get around this, and will the Speaker indeed allow it?

The Speaker may also try and help backbenchers out by allowing amendments and motions to be tabled outside the normal rules. Normally the government alone control the majority of parliamentary time, with the opposition parties being given so many debates depending on whether they are the official opposition and then according to their size. Backbenchers don't tend to get much parliamentary time. However the Speaker's actions last week showed he was willing to be creative and bend the rules to allow backbenchers more influence and power than under normal circumstances because of the way that the Executive was trying to frustrate the house. So not timetabling any further Brexit Business between now and the 29th January seems a sure fire way to have the Government straight on course for another run in with Bercow.

So what next:

Do not forget that whatever happens May has to agree to it, or we go to no deal. Whether that be a 2nd Ref, Revoking, Staying in the Customs Union, Norway + or Any Other Alternative May has to agree to it on some level.

Backbenchers can table amendments all day long to 'guide' or put pressure on May but they may not be able stop her ultimately. Boles, Grieve, Benn and Cooper seem to be the ones to watch.

So May's stubborness is the biggest barrier and issue there is to preventing No Deal.

Corbyn, whilst he might well be very right to avoid getting sucked into May's trap, isn't helping matters with his own stubborness. His priority is party politics and stopping the Labour Party from splitting. Not solving Brexit.

There is not a shread of pragmatism nor thought for the national interest between them. Party before Country.

So we are to go through all of the last week, possibly with another vote of no confidence thrown in for good measure in another 12 days.

Won't that be fun?

OP posts:
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UnnecessaryFennel · 19/01/2019 18:12

Italics fail Hmm

BigChocFrenzy · 19/01/2019 18:12

Lucy May promised she wouldn't lead the party into the scheduled 2022 GE
However, she refused to promise about 2019 GEs.

She clearly wants to carry on until Brexit is resolved and she is notoriously stubborn
I would be astonished if she resigns before (barring genuinely serious health problems)

If there is a pre-Brexit GE, then imo May will be leading the Tories

lonelyplanetmum · 19/01/2019 18:13

This might be a dumb question but do the no dealers want:

  1. No deal for a few months to see how it goes.
  1. No deal with the EU for ever.
  1. No deal with the EU until we have other deals in place with say the US and see how it goes.

I can't believe I'm asking this- it's like saying do you prefer
Strychnine. ...
Cyanide. ...
Mustard Gas. ...
Arsenic.

Hazardswans · 19/01/2019 18:14

Leclerc you naughty MNetter!

Fennel that sounds like it went well today.... I like hearing about people donating (though obviously horrified there's a need for it!) let's you know that people still give a shit and thats good.

Mrsr8 · 19/01/2019 18:15

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

BigChocFrenzy · 19/01/2019 18:16

If there is any kind of brexit, then we will need an extension for the necessary enabling legislation.
So imo,

Brexit can NOT happen on 29 March

Former Clerk of Commons Lord Lisvane:

“The Govt itself has said before exit day it needs 5 big bills - on trade, customs, immigration, fisheries, agriculture - and 600 statutory instruments,
a lot of which are substantial, to become law.

In 70 days, that’s a terrific challenge”.

SwedishEdith · 19/01/2019 18:20

Ha ha, hazard's been deleted again. I screenshotted that one. Grin

PerverseConverse · 19/01/2019 18:22

Need to catch up now that I'm stuffed full of homemade veggie spaghetti bolognese and crumble and custard. I'm very grateful to my just turned 4 year old who saw the quorn advert and asked if we could have it for dinner. Cooking from scratch was therapeutic and a welcome distraction. Also good practice for when the shit hits the fan and homemade cooking on a budget is a necessity rather than me being virtuous.

Hazardswans · 19/01/2019 18:24

swedish Noooo? Have I? Whhhyyy?

SwedishEdith · 19/01/2019 18:25

It was "the explanation".

BigChocFrenzy · 19/01/2019 18:25

lonely afaik, Leavers believe:

DD - Keep saying we are prepared for No Deal and the EU will blink at the last minute to give us cake

or that after a No Deal Brexit, the EU will be so desperate

  • despite their trade deals with RoW remaining the same while other countries may no longer accept UK sharing in these EU deals - that we will get a cake deal

or believe - wrongly - that after the Uk leaves the EU that individual countries will make deals with us.
No, EU member legally cannot make separate trade deals

or that the EU will collapse, dissolve into 27 separate countries hwo will be desperate for a deal with us.

or we don't need any deal ever, because WTO terms - on which no other country solely trades - give us more freedom to be buccaneering.

1tisILeClerc · 19/01/2019 18:25

{If there is any kind of brexit, then we will need an extension}
Oh please NO!
'You should have gone for a wee made plans before we came out.
In exasperated parent voice.

Hazardswans · 19/01/2019 18:26

Oh I see, it's the one where I said it's going to get deleted.

Need to find my shocked face again...Shock

Hazardswans · 19/01/2019 18:27

Wonder if I got deleted because I summarized MN? Let's say it's that. I'm really sad otherwise....I didn't even say ukip.

BigChocFrenzy · 19/01/2019 18:28

OK, well my UKIP posts must have been within the rules < smug face >
so you need to study them, hazard ! 😏

1tisILeClerc · 19/01/2019 18:35

Speaking of inconsistencies. Farage is claiming he wants to stand as an MEP again, and wants the UK to leave the EU.
How does that work?

Lucygoeswalkies · 19/01/2019 18:35

@BigChoc May promised she wouldn't lead the party into the scheduled 2022 GE
However, she refused to promise about 2019 GEs.

Thanks for the clarification Smile- I knew I was missing something!

MissMalice · 19/01/2019 18:36

I don’t think May promised did she? I thought she said something like she didn’t intend to..?

TheElementsSong · 19/01/2019 18:37

You probably got deleted because the very same people who will be confidently bestriding the World doing buccaneering trade deals, graciously receiving tribute from the awestruck lesser nations which will form Empire 2.0 as untold wealth showers upon us and simultaneously bravely withstanding the agonising hardship of food rations and medical shortages as we are ruthlessly bullied by the immoral lesser nations of the EUSSR showing our extremely unique and special British doughtiness in the face of adversity...

...

are ickle wee helpless snowflakes with vewy vewy easily bruised feelings[ grin]

Hazardswans · 19/01/2019 18:38

Testing....Testing....one two three

Ukip are misogynistic.

Hazardswans · 19/01/2019 18:38

Ukip are cunts.

Hazardswans · 19/01/2019 18:39

I'm ashamed to say I am related to Ukip members.

1tisILeClerc · 19/01/2019 18:39

Is there some sort of clause around 'catch 22' that we are missing.
The Army won't take people that are 'mad', but you have to be 'mad' to be in the army kind of thing?

Peregrina · 19/01/2019 18:40

UKIP are fascists.

DGRossetti · 19/01/2019 18:40

I'm ashamed to say I am related to Ukip members.

Sadly, aren't we all, in some way ?