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Brexit

Westminstenders: Stalemate

958 replies

RedToothBrush · 17/01/2019 20:54

After May's Meaningless Vote defeat and Corbyns Pointless Vote for Your Own Party defeat we are well and truly at Stalemate.

May has invited other parties to come and talk to her to find a compromise. Except she has so many red lines all she is asking is for everyone else to compromise whilst she gets exactly what she wants.

Corbyn made a tactical error in not initially speaking to May, so now she gets to say that its Labour who are being difficult and not wanting to work together in the national interest.

Corbyn has in addition put down the red line of saying he won't talk to May until she agrees to drop no deal. Except since no deal is the default until an alternative solution is agreed! Corbyn is expecting May to say that she would revoke if there was no alternative agreed, whilst is isn't really reasonable from a compromise point of view.

They are as bad as each other. Both too stubborn for the country to move forward. Its long been said that they were alike in this respect, but having it put to the test about which is more stubborn has the potential to destory the country in the process.

In addition to this, Leadsom has removed all other Brexit related HoC business from the schedule until after the 29th January. This is a blantant attempt to try and stop backbenchers having the opportunity to table pesky amendments which the government don't like.

The 29th January is due to be the Meaningless Vote II. Given that May has made it clear that in her head 'compromise' means 'do exactly what I want and capitulate' it looks like the Withdrawal Agreement will be represented to parliament to vote on with little change. Perhaps with a few amendments there designed to attract support, though it remains to be seen where this support will come from given the spectulator level of the rejection the HoC gave it. May's Plan is literally to run the clock down and hold a gun of no deal to the head of remain leaning MPs or to scare Brexiteers by suggesting that she might revoke or there might be an extension.

Its beyond farce.

Of course the role of the Speaker becomes paramount.

Technically speaking no bill can be presented to the HoC twice in the same parliament. Its against the rules. So how is May going to get around this, and will the Speaker indeed allow it?

The Speaker may also try and help backbenchers out by allowing amendments and motions to be tabled outside the normal rules. Normally the government alone control the majority of parliamentary time, with the opposition parties being given so many debates depending on whether they are the official opposition and then according to their size. Backbenchers don't tend to get much parliamentary time. However the Speaker's actions last week showed he was willing to be creative and bend the rules to allow backbenchers more influence and power than under normal circumstances because of the way that the Executive was trying to frustrate the house. So not timetabling any further Brexit Business between now and the 29th January seems a sure fire way to have the Government straight on course for another run in with Bercow.

So what next:

Do not forget that whatever happens May has to agree to it, or we go to no deal. Whether that be a 2nd Ref, Revoking, Staying in the Customs Union, Norway + or Any Other Alternative May has to agree to it on some level.

Backbenchers can table amendments all day long to 'guide' or put pressure on May but they may not be able stop her ultimately. Boles, Grieve, Benn and Cooper seem to be the ones to watch.

So May's stubborness is the biggest barrier and issue there is to preventing No Deal.

Corbyn, whilst he might well be very right to avoid getting sucked into May's trap, isn't helping matters with his own stubborness. His priority is party politics and stopping the Labour Party from splitting. Not solving Brexit.

There is not a shread of pragmatism nor thought for the national interest between them. Party before Country.

So we are to go through all of the last week, possibly with another vote of no confidence thrown in for good measure in another 12 days.

Won't that be fun?

OP posts:
Thread gallery
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lonelyplanetmum · 19/01/2019 11:30

💐 💐 💐 2bees.

We spend so long on these threads in depth analysing, questioning. Often trying to understand the Leavers shifting stance. Often sympathising with those motivated by acts of despair and reaction to austerity.

BUT

Remainers are affected too. Redundant.Worried. Dependent on medication.

Where are the threads of analysis and sympathy and endeavours to understand us?

1tisILeClerc · 19/01/2019 11:32

{So ECMT permit applications are closed for this year. The EU have proposed steps so that our haulage drivers can continue to drive. Does this mean that the steps will definitely be implemented?}
Honestly no idea but the EU are not out for punishing the UK so are likely to do all they can to make it happen. This doesn't mean there won't be local difficulties but decisions made in Brussels may take time to filter to the coalface.

Quietrebel · 19/01/2019 11:32

lonelyplanetmum

I love William Blake. Do you mean perhaps Songs of Experience, the Voice of the Ancient Bard (final song):

Youth of delight! come hither
And see the opening morn,
Image of Truth new-born.
Doubt is fled, and clouds of reason,
Dark disputes and artful teazing.
Folly is an endless maze;
Tangled roots perplex her ways;
How many have fallen there!
They stumble all night over bones of the dead;
And feel—they know not what but care;
And wish to lead others, when they should be led.

Quietrebel · 19/01/2019 11:35

Brexit or not, we will always have beautiful literature.

Mrsr8 · 19/01/2019 11:41

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

1tisILeClerc · 19/01/2019 11:44

{Where are the threads of analysis and sympathy and endeavours to understand us?}
You have to remember that 'remainers' are 'elite bastards' who are trying to oppress and stop the unicorns,,,,,,, or some such bollocks.

That was a lovely piece Cat, so thoughtful.

Flowers to all, doubly so to those in real need of reassurance.
There will be a big change. For some it will be very bad but if you can accept change and go with the flow it may not be too much. Everyone wants at least some certainty in their lives and that is the worst part, not having any idea what is actually coming.
The human spirit is to at least survive, if not thrive, so look out for any opportunities, of which there will be many, but not necessarily where you would normally look.
Mrsr8 from being involved with a foodbank is 'on the move' heading into places she would not have imagined 3 years ago. Let her be an inspiration.

Quietrebel · 19/01/2019 11:44

I really hope all goes well for you 2bees 💐💐💐

SingingBabooshkaBadly · 19/01/2019 11:53

2bees that’s such a lot to cope with. You’re right to take some time out. Cat has said it all so much more eloquently than I could hope to so I can only say Flowers

Cat your earlier post about knowledge was awesome. Your more recent one to 2bees floored me. Beautifully said.

SingingBabooshkaBadly · 19/01/2019 12:02

Er...apologies if this has already been posted on one of the threads that moved too fast for me but I thought it worth sharing just in case. It’s Andy Serkis reprising Gollum as Theresa May...

Mrsr8 · 19/01/2019 12:05

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

SingingBabooshkaBadly · 19/01/2019 12:07

MrsR8. 👏 👏 👏

Please rethink your decision not to consider standing as an MP.

1tisILeClerc · 19/01/2019 12:15

{One of the hardest things about this whole mess for me is how impotent and useless it's made me feel, both personally, locally and nationally.}
Don't give up, you are doing your best for those who need help.
Talk to all and sundry. You never know who you will meet that can advance your cause.
I would never have imagined having tea with an ex Secretary General of the EU.

JaneHare · 19/01/2019 12:15

Just caught Radio 4 news bulletin. Sir Keir saying summat about second ref being one of only two options now.

I'm not thrilled at the prospect of a second ref but if we're not going to revoke, it's better than no deal.

And good to hear Labour's rather dishy Brexit spokesman saying something other than "it must meet our six tests blah blah..."

JaneHare · 19/01/2019 12:21

No idea why I referred to him as "Sir Keir" when I'm so opposed to the Honours system. Brexit is doing weird stuff to my brain!

ShirtyFlirty · 19/01/2019 12:22

Keri seems so anxious, he is walking a tight rope.

lonelyplanetmum · 19/01/2019 12:24

*Quietrebel
*
It wasn't that Blake poem. It's annoying me now, as google has failed me but " Dark disputes and artful teazing.
Folly is an endless maze;"
Is pretty apt.

It was something else about two approaches one being ignorant in their certainty and one being uncertain but knowledgeable in their questioning..something like that.

Hazardswans · 19/01/2019 12:30

If your still about 2bees I've teared up to. (And im a snotty crier!!!) We"re all wishing you the very best here. Everything that can be crossed I've got crossed. We care and I'm sending lots of love your way.

❤❤❤

BigChocFrenzy · 19/01/2019 12:30

Superb analysis, cat of a certain group of Leavers

imo, these are one of the 2 groups that Cameron didn't see coming and hence didn't factor into the risk he was taking;
the other, of course, being those who just wanted to hit out at those who brought austerity and made their lives so shit

Groups he would have been aware of are the English nationalists and the better off who want lower taxes for their own benefit
However since they have been reliable tory voters for decades, he may not have been able to adjust fully to them being on the opposing side for once

imo, the common factors that tie most of the very disparate Leave groups together are:

  • a preference for authoritarian policies and leaders

  • this fits with reacting angrily to facts that contradict their views, because their view of "freedom" is that they should be able to state their views, but anyone daring to disagree is an enemy

  • English nationalism - specifically english rather than even British

  • a dislike / fear of foreigners - defined as outside the Amglosphere

  • a general dislike / fear of societal changes since their formative years

  • many changes and - as they see it - restrictions on their own freedoms, e.g. previous "freedom" of hate speech and being able to openly discriminate
  • Those you have identified as being unable to learn and understand complex systems and facts
    therefore deny that these exist and claim they are elite liberal inventions designed to foil them

  • the loss of possibly the only privileges they ever had as white heterosexuals, especially males,
    rather like the angry white poor in the US who for centuries previously felt,
    at least they could look down on African Americans
    but now bitterly resent sharing ever more of those disadvantages with those they despise.

Westminstenders: Stalemate
Westminstenders: Stalemate
Westminstenders: Stalemate
Hazardswans · 19/01/2019 12:31

mrs good for you being so productive. And yes I think you should come and save us! No pressure or anything.... but yeah you really need to Grin

BigChocFrenzy · 19/01/2019 12:36

Yeah c'mon, Mrsr8 for Parliament !

ThereWillBeAdequateFood · 19/01/2019 12:38

Great graphs bigchoc

I think it’s all about authoritarianism. Most that voted leave want control. The Leavers I know have fairly authoritarian views on most things.
I feel like such a wish washy bleeding heart liberal compared to them. I got laughed at for voting Lib Dem (although to be fair to them what’s the point of voting Lib Dem at the moment).

SwedishEdith · 19/01/2019 12:38

Some great analyses on here. Certainly ties in with the emasculated white man. (I'm still intrigued by why mn deleted that post on the last thread Grin. I'm not interested in the weirdo who reported it, just why mn complied)

Keir Starmer is very clearly creating space between him and Corbyn. He knows he's a potential leader so needs to be disassociated from Corbyn.

ThereWillBeAdequateFood · 19/01/2019 12:39

I really think you should become an MP Mrs8. You would be amazing.

JustAnotherPoster00 · 19/01/2019 12:43

Sir Keir saying summat about second ref being one of only two options now.

Keir Starmer is very clearly creating space between him and Corbyn. He knows he's a potential leader so needs to be disassociated from Corbyn.

In what way SwedishEdith?

SwedishEdith · 19/01/2019 12:47

Jill Rutter Retweeted
Tim Bale
‏*@ProfTimBale*

Looks to me like @Keir_Starmer will either be resigning from @UKLabour's Shadow Cabinet pretty soon or else, by appearing to be about to do so, finally force Corbyn (and, just as importantly, those around him) to endorse a #PeoplesVote. #FEPSFAB10Tim Bale added,

Tim Bale Retweeted Paul Mason

Paul Mason
@paulmasonnews
Labour's @Keir_Starmer says "we are now at the third phase... including campIng for public vote" - audience bursts into applause. Implicit smack down of the closet Lexiteers on Labour front bench.

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