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Brexit

Westminstenders: Stalemate

958 replies

RedToothBrush · 17/01/2019 20:54

After May's Meaningless Vote defeat and Corbyns Pointless Vote for Your Own Party defeat we are well and truly at Stalemate.

May has invited other parties to come and talk to her to find a compromise. Except she has so many red lines all she is asking is for everyone else to compromise whilst she gets exactly what she wants.

Corbyn made a tactical error in not initially speaking to May, so now she gets to say that its Labour who are being difficult and not wanting to work together in the national interest.

Corbyn has in addition put down the red line of saying he won't talk to May until she agrees to drop no deal. Except since no deal is the default until an alternative solution is agreed! Corbyn is expecting May to say that she would revoke if there was no alternative agreed, whilst is isn't really reasonable from a compromise point of view.

They are as bad as each other. Both too stubborn for the country to move forward. Its long been said that they were alike in this respect, but having it put to the test about which is more stubborn has the potential to destory the country in the process.

In addition to this, Leadsom has removed all other Brexit related HoC business from the schedule until after the 29th January. This is a blantant attempt to try and stop backbenchers having the opportunity to table pesky amendments which the government don't like.

The 29th January is due to be the Meaningless Vote II. Given that May has made it clear that in her head 'compromise' means 'do exactly what I want and capitulate' it looks like the Withdrawal Agreement will be represented to parliament to vote on with little change. Perhaps with a few amendments there designed to attract support, though it remains to be seen where this support will come from given the spectulator level of the rejection the HoC gave it. May's Plan is literally to run the clock down and hold a gun of no deal to the head of remain leaning MPs or to scare Brexiteers by suggesting that she might revoke or there might be an extension.

Its beyond farce.

Of course the role of the Speaker becomes paramount.

Technically speaking no bill can be presented to the HoC twice in the same parliament. Its against the rules. So how is May going to get around this, and will the Speaker indeed allow it?

The Speaker may also try and help backbenchers out by allowing amendments and motions to be tabled outside the normal rules. Normally the government alone control the majority of parliamentary time, with the opposition parties being given so many debates depending on whether they are the official opposition and then according to their size. Backbenchers don't tend to get much parliamentary time. However the Speaker's actions last week showed he was willing to be creative and bend the rules to allow backbenchers more influence and power than under normal circumstances because of the way that the Executive was trying to frustrate the house. So not timetabling any further Brexit Business between now and the 29th January seems a sure fire way to have the Government straight on course for another run in with Bercow.

So what next:

Do not forget that whatever happens May has to agree to it, or we go to no deal. Whether that be a 2nd Ref, Revoking, Staying in the Customs Union, Norway + or Any Other Alternative May has to agree to it on some level.

Backbenchers can table amendments all day long to 'guide' or put pressure on May but they may not be able stop her ultimately. Boles, Grieve, Benn and Cooper seem to be the ones to watch.

So May's stubborness is the biggest barrier and issue there is to preventing No Deal.

Corbyn, whilst he might well be very right to avoid getting sucked into May's trap, isn't helping matters with his own stubborness. His priority is party politics and stopping the Labour Party from splitting. Not solving Brexit.

There is not a shread of pragmatism nor thought for the national interest between them. Party before Country.

So we are to go through all of the last week, possibly with another vote of no confidence thrown in for good measure in another 12 days.

Won't that be fun?

OP posts:
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OhYouBadBadKitten · 19/01/2019 10:42

I think that we need to remember in all of these posts, that a lot of people are getting really anxious and everyone copes in different ways. Some people cope with not only putting their heads in the sand, but encouraging everyone else to do so too.

Deep breath.

2beesornot2beesthatisthehoney · 19/01/2019 10:43

Can anyone tell me the point of an election? Does May really think she will get enough MPs to get her deal through a second time when a hundred or so voted against it . How the hell does the maths work?

merrymouse · 19/01/2019 10:43

I don't think you can categorise "Leave " voters as a single group.

Agree. If they were a cohesive group we wouldn’t have had a referendum - one party would have been able to win an election on the basis of leaving the EU.

thecatfromjapan · 19/01/2019 10:44

I think there's a massive overlap with Walter Benjamin's identification of the 'occult' roofs of Nazism.

Occult has been taking to mean 'psycho-dynamic drivers of identification with Fascism' and 'irrational drivers of identification with Fascism' and this is true.

BUT it is also rooted in s material history of overlap between Nazis and a class fraction (Raymond Williams' term) that we're drawn to studying occult literature.

If we look in a materialist way at why so many people in that period became fascinated with occult religion and learning, it has a lot to do with marginalisation from the institutions of elite, legitimate knowledge (universities; higher education) and a similar feeling of excludion from power networks. Add into that the growth of mainstream media and changing forces of production and international power relations that were new, confusing and must have felt, to some, like a conspiracy from which they were excluded.

It's all quite grim.

thecatfromjapan · 19/01/2019 10:47

OYBBK

Yes. Head in sand is a form of sanity-protection. I do it intermittently. I do it on purpose because, frankly, I have to switch off so that I can function. ☹️

2beesornot2beesthatisthehoney · 19/01/2019 10:49

Head in the sand and is fine , encouraging others to stick their head in too is not.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 19/01/2019 10:50

It's normal though 2bees.

Violetparis · 19/01/2019 10:52

Surely the only way out of this is to have a series of votes in Parliament to find out what is an acceptable way forward.

Plonkysaurus · 19/01/2019 10:56

Excellent posts cat

Violet John Major was on R4 this morning saying exactly that. He also called for statesmanship, which I wholeheartedly agree with. Especially as the cult of Corbyn seems to be reaching its inevitable demise.

2beesornot2beesthatisthehoney · 19/01/2019 10:56

These threads with their knowledge give me comfort. I am very scared right now. Scared that I will continue to get the right drugs to prevent my seizures . Scared that my brain implant developed in RoI wont fail. Scared that the thing that has appeared on my tongue isn’t C when I go to hospital for a check next week. Scared that we will manage food wise . And fucking SoS telling me it will all be fine .

lonelyplanetmum · 19/01/2019 10:58

I think what you do is you say: ' oh yes. I am super-clever. I saw that all along. I am not just one of the initiates into this Uber-elite cult, I am one of the inner sanctum. I saw the secret truth right from the start. I am, actually, one of the priests of this cult.'

Very insightful post there thecat.
It's part of that "I know more", I come from a line of distinguished landowners, I know more I went to the University of life and am therefore the truly superior.

There's no room for questioning and analysis and research.

There's a poem about this from William Blake I think . I'll try and find it something about being questioning in your understanding. (Said me working class turned urban elite quoting poetry. )

SingingBabooshkaBadly · 19/01/2019 11:00

He voted remain and is intelligent, just apparently deeply, deeply cynical about all sources of news information.

wherearemychickens. This reminds me of several conversations I’ve had with my uncle. Also intelligent, also voted Remain. He would love us to stay in the EU. He thinks there’s a lot of scaremongering and when I gently suggested he should think about getting some extra supplies in I was treated to a lot of eye rolling. Rather impatiently suggested people were being stupid stocking up now when ‘we’re still weeks away from Brexit’ and ‘anyway even if we leave without a deal we’ll be fine. We always are.’

There’s only so much you can do...

Mistigri · 19/01/2019 11:02

I'm putting this here but it would make a good "AIBU to be scared about being homeless and jobless after Brexit" for a brave EU citizen

www.ferguspeace.com/2019/01/no-deal-would-create-next-windrush.html

Very good points about what no deal would mean in practice for EU citizens who would face the hostile environment overnight.

thecatfromjapan · 19/01/2019 11:05

We're all scared, 2bees.

You have so much to deal with. So much that depends on things being OK.

It's true: I am listening and I understand.

Please, today, let me worry for you. Let us on this thread listen to what's going on, take notes, try and make sense, try and think of what can be done.

Please, let us do that for you today.

And, knowing other people are doing that - you go and do something that binds you back into the joy of being s human, alive in the world, surrounded by beautiful things, small things, looked-over things.

Go and find a smooth pebble in green grass and think about how it tells you about the joy of being s perfect thing, perfectly fitted to the world - like you.

Go and hold your children, and smell them, and remember how beautiful it is to be loved beyond words.

Honestly - you are owed some time doing that. You've put the effort in with concer-for-the-future, concern-for-the-many.

Balance is now needed- Go. Take your turn of pleasure.

You can pick up your shard of the worrying/thinking forwards/thinking for others tomorrow.

💐💐💐

lonelyplanetmum · 19/01/2019 11:05

I think what you do is you say: ' oh yes. I am super-clever. I saw that all along. I am not just one of the initiates into this Uber-elite cult, I am one of the inner sanctum. I saw the secret truth right from the start. I am, actually, one of the priests of this cult.'

Very insightful post there thecat.
It's part of that "I know more", I come from a line of distinguished landowners, I know more I went to the University of life and am therefore the truly superior.

There's no room for questioning and analysis and research.

There's a poem about this from William Blake ? I think . I'll try and find it something about being questioning in your understanding. (Said me working class turned urban elite quoting poetry. )

Violetparis · 19/01/2019 11:05

Plonkysaurus just read what John Major said (it's the headline article on The Guardian online if anyone else is interested) and absolutely agree with him.

lonelyplanetmum · 19/01/2019 11:08

Sorry don't know how the double post happened. Certainly not worthy of posting twice.

Off to encourage DH to take DD out of the house so I can work or seek solace in poetry....

Hazardswans · 19/01/2019 11:08

2bees I wanna hug you! Hope next wk turns out okay. The build up to finding out is intense and on top of everything else it sounds like a tough week for you. FlowersFlowers

FishesaPlenty · 19/01/2019 11:11

On the subject of insurance. In the case of a no-deal what's the situation regarding policies held with non-UK insurers? Will existing policies still be valid even if the insurer loses its UK authorisation?

ShirtyFlirty · 19/01/2019 11:14

^^

OhYouBadBadKitten · 19/01/2019 11:14

I understand that you must be very scared 2bees. Flowers I hope that next weeks appointment can put one fear to rest at least.

2beesornot2beesthatisthehoney · 19/01/2019 11:16

Just wanted to say thanks to Cat and Hazard for your kind words. They have made me cry. Going to leave off reading or posting DUP tiff today as Cat suggests. Probably be at least 2 extra threads when I return!

OhYouBadBadKitten · 19/01/2019 11:16

www.gov.uk/guidance/ecmt-international-road-haulage-permits?utm_source=51bc27d7-2c82-46bf-aed7-7fe49e5f5d98&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=govuk-notifications&utm_content=weekly

So ECMT permit applications are closed for this year. The EU have proposed steps so that our haulage drivers can continue to drive. Does this mean that the steps will definitely be implemented?

thecatfromjapan · 19/01/2019 11:17

All love to you, 2bees. 💐

Somerville · 19/01/2019 11:23

2bees Flowers
Take that break. We all need one sometimes.

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