Westminstenders: Stalemate

[RedToothBrush]

After May's Meaningless Vote defeat and Corbyns Pointless Vote for Your Own Party defeat we are well and truly at Stalemate.

May has invited other parties to come and talk to her to find a compromise. Except she has so many red lines all she is asking is for everyone else to compromise whilst she gets exactly what she wants.

Corbyn made a tactical error in not initially speaking to May, so now she gets to say that its Labour who are being difficult and not wanting to work together in the national interest.

Corbyn has in addition put down the red line of saying he won't talk to May until she agrees to drop no deal. Except since no deal is the default until an alternative solution is agreed! Corbyn is expecting May to say that she would revoke if there was no alternative agreed, whilst is isn't really reasonable from a compromise point of view.

They are as bad as each other. Both too stubborn for the country to move forward. Its long been said that they were alike in this respect, but having it put to the test about which is more stubborn has the potential to destory the country in the process.

In addition to this, Leadsom has removed all other Brexit related HoC business from the schedule until after the 29th January. This is a blantant attempt to try and stop backbenchers having the opportunity to table pesky amendments which the government don't like.

The 29th January is due to be the Meaningless Vote II. Given that May has made it clear that in her head 'compromise' means 'do exactly what I want and capitulate' it looks like the Withdrawal Agreement will be represented to parliament to vote on with little change. Perhaps with a few amendments there designed to attract support, though it remains to be seen where this support will come from given the spectulator level of the rejection the HoC gave it. May's Plan is literally to run the clock down and hold a gun of no deal to the head of remain leaning MPs or to scare Brexiteers by suggesting that she might revoke or there might be an extension.

Its beyond farce.

Of course the role of the Speaker becomes paramount.

Technically speaking no bill can be presented to the HoC twice in the same parliament. Its against the rules. So how is May going to get around this, and will the Speaker indeed allow it?

The Speaker may also try and help backbenchers out by allowing amendments and motions to be tabled outside the normal rules. Normally the government alone control the majority of parliamentary time, with the opposition parties being given so many debates depending on whether they are the official opposition and then according to their size. Backbenchers don't tend to get much parliamentary time. However the Speaker's actions last week showed he was willing to be creative and bend the rules to allow backbenchers more influence and power than under normal circumstances because of the way that the Executive was trying to frustrate the house. So not timetabling any further Brexit Business between now and the 29th January seems a sure fire way to have the Government straight on course for another run in with Bercow.

So what next:

Do not forget that whatever happens May has to agree to it, or we go to no deal. Whether that be a 2nd Ref, Revoking, Staying in the Customs Union, Norway + or Any Other Alternative May has to agree to it on some level.

Backbenchers can table amendments all day long to 'guide' or put pressure on May but they may not be able stop her ultimately. Boles, Grieve, Benn and Cooper seem to be the ones to watch.

So May's stubborness is the biggest barrier and issue there is to preventing No Deal.

Corbyn, whilst he might well be very right to avoid getting sucked into May's trap, isn't helping matters with his own stubborness. His priority is party politics and stopping the Labour Party from splitting. Not solving Brexit.

There is not a shread of pragmatism nor thought for the national interest between them. Party before Country.

So we are to go through all of the last week, possibly with another vote of no confidence thrown in for good measure in another 12 days.

Won't that be fun?

Yep there was a DUP Statement denying whats been known for months. It would screw their negotition strategy and make them look weak because they blinked first.

To be fair to the guy, he did always say he was going to "lie in front of a bulldozer

amazing

I thought on it and realised perhaps I am in a minority thinking Brexit is more important than politics atm

Brexit is politics atm isn’t? There’s so much wrong in this country, and the wider world, but how can we begin to sort that stuff out if we go crashing out of the EU?

People spend hours and hours on these threads. I know I do and I’m largely just reading (and not even managing to keep up much of the time). For the main contributors this a major investment of time and energy, for which we are all hugely grateful. And, whilst we discuss all sorts of subjects, because they are relevant and linked, these are not threads that are primarily about child poverty, or women’s rights or disaffected youth or tuition fees - many other issues underpin the discussion, yes, because so many of them are bound up in why people feel the way they do and why they voted the way they did and because, I think, we are all decent humans who care about stuff. But it’s Brexit that is the focus, Brexit that has consumed everyone here for two and a half years, Brexit that will make more children poorer, that will make more women suffer disproportionately, that will kill the poor and take away more children’s opportunity for a decent education. So, yes, I think Brexit is bigger than politics and if it came to it and there were an opportunity to vote in a GE for a party that wanted to stop it then for me it would be worth holding my nose and voting for them.

Like I said Brexit is politics.

Theresa May has left European diplomats in a state of “disbelief” following a series of phone calls to EU leaders in which she made no change to her demands despite her Brexit plan being voted down by a 230-vote margin this week.

Senior EU diplomatic sources said that Mrs May’s unchanged stance was “greeted with incredulity” following a call with the German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Thursday night.

“It was the same old story - the same set of demands - all unchanged despite the defeat,” said the source with knowledge of the calls.

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/18/theresa-may-leaves-diplomats-disbelief-presenting-eu-leaders/

We're trying very hard not to leave you Germany and Netherlands! Don't let us go! Just ignore TM her own cabinet does!

Yes it is. Yet pp have said they would vote for conservatives or labour rather than libs who are the only fully remain party (and greens which is why I wished a merger). Only logical conclusions is that for some party politics is more important than stopping Brexit if we get a GE.

Well said singing

An election throws me into a crisis. I have no problem with voting lib dem - but I live in a labour/ tory marginal seat. My tory mp is a bastard but he is a bastard with the slenderest of majorities. I want him out. I don't want to vote labour unless they come out for remain or at least a PV - but I fear that voting lib dem just means that the tory bastard will get back in - and on an increased majority.

So I genuinely don't know what to do in the event of election.

I hear the people who are saying 'if all remainers vote lib dem...' but we have to organise that. Without good reason to assume that remainers in my constituency (the majority of voters) are going to buck the trend and vote for the lib dem candidate than I fear my voting for him/her is throwing my vote away and returning an MP to TM's ranks.

Re voting - yes, here I would vote LD. It’s a safe Tory seat and though Labour did better than expected in the last election, the candidate was a Corbynite through and through (took some votes from UKIP I think). However, if I lived anywhere else I’d vote for any Remain candidate of any party who could assure me they would do all in their power to ensure no hard Brexit and if possible no Brexit at all and I’d push the case for Remain as hard as I could. Would it do any good? Heaven knows. But a Commons with more Remainers on both sides would be less dangerous than the current split.

My birth country is in a mess
but he can only go on for another 5 years
My chosen home country is in a much deeper mess
I feel sad

Paul Waugh @paulwaugh
Labour MPs have all been emailed their Friday night PLP bulletin. It reveals Jeremy Corbyn's latest move to stop a no-deal Brexit: an Early Day Motion.

EDM will be tabled Monday .

Paul Waugh @paulwaugh
Responses to this tweet have been pretty swift. One Lab MP tells me 'Is that it? An EDM, really? That will have govt quaking in its boots'

Another is more relaxed: 'the struggle takes many forms, comrade'

Note that the EDM has 'other Opposition party leaders' too. Will it be united front from @theSNP @UKLabour @Plaid_Cymru @CarolineLucas @LibDems?

If you are like me, you have no idea what an Early Day Motion is...

So I've already been off to wiki to find help

An early day motion (EDM), in the Westminster system, is a motion, expressed as a single sentence, tabled by Members of Parliament that formally calls for debate "on an early day". In practice, they are rarely debated in the House and their main purpose is to draw attention to particular subjects of interest. Government ministers, Whips, Parliamentary Private Secretaries, the Speaker of the House of Commons and Deputy Speakers do not normally sign EDMs. EDMs remain open for signature for the duration of the parliamentary session.

Yes it's that shit.

And as it turns out apparently Corbyn has signed 20,000 EDM in his 35 years as an MP and very few have ever been debate.

This is in short, fucking bullshit.

pretzels is your Tory a Leaver? Get him out. Vote Labour. Is he a Remainer, though a bastard? Vote LD.

pretzels in your case i'd see if the Labour MP is pro remain and has bollocks to vote against the whip? If it's a weak sappy fool or pro brexit vote libdem?

I’m no clearer on what an EDM is or the point of it.

Didnt we all agree 2019 was the year we're banning the word comrade?

And oh look Jeremy is pulling a Jeremy again...

amp.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/18/revealed-uk-patients-stockpile-drugs-in-fear-of-no-deal-brexit?CMP=share_btn_tw&__twitter_impression=true
Revealed: UK patients stockpile drugs in fear of no-deal Brexit
Doctors call for more transparency amid fears of shortages, especially of insulin

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/18/stockpiling-insulin-for-no-deal-brexit-if-i-run-out-i-have-no-idea-what-to-do
Stockpiling insulin for no-deal: 'If I run out, I have no idea what to do'
A man with diabetes explains why he has a fridge full of medicine in case of a hard Brexit

One diabetic patient, speaking anonymously, told the Guardian: “I am T1D and everyone on the diabetes forums are stockpiling insulin. People are reporting shortages due to this. We are used to getting insulin dispensed immediately or next day, but people say they are being asked to leave it a week.”

Another woman, who also wanted to remain anonymous, said: “I’m really nervous about medical supplies and have scouted out both how to do day trips to France to get meds, or illegal postal supplies from India.”

Another two weeks and there will be a real crisis over this. The government is allowing this to happen out of incompetence

I know the JCB place is in Stoke...so Boris and TM have been to Stoke in the past week.

I suspect that's never happened before. And guess what...once Brexit is done and dusted it will never happen again.

Jeremy Corbyn’s reply to Theresa May’s letter is on Twitter. I think it’s a fair response.

A special tax for all the people who live in places where there is insufficient public transport.

Why don't we call it - The Outside London Dreamt Up By People Who Live In London Tax

The main obstacle to people not using public transport is it being non existant or completely unreliable

Not the cost of parking.

You will be paying to go to work. What sense does that make? And who is going to be hit hardest? And how will it distort house prices.

I swear these people are complete fuck nuggets with chicken dippers for brains.

I note the
'surprise surge in voter registrations in 2019' line

I looked into the Indian postal option....didn't realise it was illegal! Was more worried if the ingredients of the meds were okay. Absolute bargain prices un-capsuled.

Learn something new every day...

They already have that in Nottingham, Red - looks like its been in place for a while.

@perverseconverse
I dreamt of Brexit too! Now, that’s worrying.

I’m more confused than ever. My naturally optimistic self is peeping above the parapet and hoping that May is playing the long game and will revoke at the 11th hour (disclaimer: I also believe in unicorns, fairies at the bottom of the garden, and the Easter bunny)

I’m even more confused by the fact that - despite the EU offering us an extension - a statement from number 10 has said it would be refused. WHY? Apologies if this has already been discussed - I’ve been out all day. While a week might be a long time in politics, 12 hours doesn’t half see some galloping movement in Westminstenders! I’m still on page 2 of ‘stalemate’.

Another two weeks and there will be a real crisis over this. The government is allowing this to happen out of incompetence

Yes, this is a crash waiting to happen. (It has the feel of one of the markets I am working on - everyone knows that there isn't enough supply and we're just waiting for the crunch now.)

I read a Yorkshire Post article about stockpiling, citing polling that suggests that only one in six people had considered stockpiling. Once that intention to stockpile figure gets to one in two, and people start seeing their friends and family acting on it, you're on a runaway train which is rapidly running out of track.

The stockpiling of medicines is a major issue - unsafe storage means increased potential for adverse events, and there is a potentially huge loss for the NHS in the form of unused drugs.