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Brexit

Westminstenders: Stalemate

958 replies

RedToothBrush · 17/01/2019 20:54

After May's Meaningless Vote defeat and Corbyns Pointless Vote for Your Own Party defeat we are well and truly at Stalemate.

May has invited other parties to come and talk to her to find a compromise. Except she has so many red lines all she is asking is for everyone else to compromise whilst she gets exactly what she wants.

Corbyn made a tactical error in not initially speaking to May, so now she gets to say that its Labour who are being difficult and not wanting to work together in the national interest.

Corbyn has in addition put down the red line of saying he won't talk to May until she agrees to drop no deal. Except since no deal is the default until an alternative solution is agreed! Corbyn is expecting May to say that she would revoke if there was no alternative agreed, whilst is isn't really reasonable from a compromise point of view.

They are as bad as each other. Both too stubborn for the country to move forward. Its long been said that they were alike in this respect, but having it put to the test about which is more stubborn has the potential to destory the country in the process.

In addition to this, Leadsom has removed all other Brexit related HoC business from the schedule until after the 29th January. This is a blantant attempt to try and stop backbenchers having the opportunity to table pesky amendments which the government don't like.

The 29th January is due to be the Meaningless Vote II. Given that May has made it clear that in her head 'compromise' means 'do exactly what I want and capitulate' it looks like the Withdrawal Agreement will be represented to parliament to vote on with little change. Perhaps with a few amendments there designed to attract support, though it remains to be seen where this support will come from given the spectulator level of the rejection the HoC gave it. May's Plan is literally to run the clock down and hold a gun of no deal to the head of remain leaning MPs or to scare Brexiteers by suggesting that she might revoke or there might be an extension.

Its beyond farce.

Of course the role of the Speaker becomes paramount.

Technically speaking no bill can be presented to the HoC twice in the same parliament. Its against the rules. So how is May going to get around this, and will the Speaker indeed allow it?

The Speaker may also try and help backbenchers out by allowing amendments and motions to be tabled outside the normal rules. Normally the government alone control the majority of parliamentary time, with the opposition parties being given so many debates depending on whether they are the official opposition and then according to their size. Backbenchers don't tend to get much parliamentary time. However the Speaker's actions last week showed he was willing to be creative and bend the rules to allow backbenchers more influence and power than under normal circumstances because of the way that the Executive was trying to frustrate the house. So not timetabling any further Brexit Business between now and the 29th January seems a sure fire way to have the Government straight on course for another run in with Bercow.

So what next:

Do not forget that whatever happens May has to agree to it, or we go to no deal. Whether that be a 2nd Ref, Revoking, Staying in the Customs Union, Norway + or Any Other Alternative May has to agree to it on some level.

Backbenchers can table amendments all day long to 'guide' or put pressure on May but they may not be able stop her ultimately. Boles, Grieve, Benn and Cooper seem to be the ones to watch.

So May's stubborness is the biggest barrier and issue there is to preventing No Deal.

Corbyn, whilst he might well be very right to avoid getting sucked into May's trap, isn't helping matters with his own stubborness. His priority is party politics and stopping the Labour Party from splitting. Not solving Brexit.

There is not a shread of pragmatism nor thought for the national interest between them. Party before Country.

So we are to go through all of the last week, possibly with another vote of no confidence thrown in for good measure in another 12 days.

Won't that be fun?

OP posts:
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Rufusthebewilderedreindeer · 18/01/2019 19:50

Exactly perverse

Ive accidentally managed to stockpile my own medicine but bearing in mind there are 5 of us i do have a very 'healthy' supply of pain killers so i am continuing to buy as much of them as i can

LonelyandTiredandLow · 18/01/2019 19:55

MyNameis but people are voting as remainers because they worry so much about Corbyn - some voters have said that on this thread which means to some Brexit is less important to them than party politics.

So we are doomed to suffer Brexit. Those who voted for May will simply believe it would have been much worse under Corbyn.

SusanWalker · 18/01/2019 19:56

I'll be voting lib dem. I have regretted my Labour vote at the last election ever since as it has been hijacked and counted as one of the 80% who voted for a brexit party. I live in a three way marginal so it might count.

BigChocFrenzy · 18/01/2019 19:57

sos Absolutely no E27 country is worried about its supplies of food, clean water, meds, or its trade with the rest of the world, or its flights or ships

No Deal is bad for those in the UK in ordinary jobs or on benefits.
They are the ones who will pay for Brexit

Those who don't rely on wages or benefits will be fine, i.e. independently wealthy or pensioners with good private pensions
will do very nicely

No Deal could actually be good for me personally, if I were the selfish type to want it for that reason and ignore the suffering of others:

I'll retire this year in Germany - they have said UK expats can stay - 4 seperate Euro pensions + UK statepension adding up to a very comfortable life, good savings and brokerage accounts in Switzerland & Germany ....

I could live even better in a UK with a crashed currency, where my Euros would buy me so much more

If I were 20 years younger with my Euro assets, or had family to leave it to,
then I'd be planning to buy up houses from those forced to sell because of job losses, care home etc
and build up a little property empire.

This is where the smart money will be going:
many fortunes to be made, most of them to people who already have fortunes, not comfy mc folk like me.

Hazardswans · 18/01/2019 20:02

France has med issues with no deal. Was not privy to the details but yeah a minority of French patients are indeed worrying.

So hey let's just call it a day and revoke.

GirlsBlouse17 · 18/01/2019 20:06

I'll be voting lib dem.

Me too. If there is a GE soon, Lib dems would be the only party to offer a chance of stopping all this madness by revoking article 50 or having a second referendum.

BigChocFrenzy · 18/01/2019 20:07

Having said that about private UK pensions, I remember one pension firm (Standard Life ?) ran out of money in the 1990s and its pensioners suddenly had income reduced to only 10%, dreadful for them.

So in a UK Great Depression -type scenario, those Uk pensioners could get a bad shock.

(That was what caused me to have so many German / Swiss pensions, including always paying into the much more generous german state pension when working here.
Unless the entire global economy crashes of course, like 1929 - which someone at my level just can't insure against)

Rufusthebewilderedreindeer · 18/01/2019 20:09

bigchoc

Dh doesn't have a private pension

He closed it and invested the money a few years ago

But we would be fucked if the economy tanked either way Sad

(I dont have a pension, or rather i have a teeny one which gets me something like £100 a month...its probably less than that!!)

PerverseConverse · 18/01/2019 20:12

Please could someone explain the Bole amendment? Bill? Whatever it is pleaseSmile

BigChocFrenzy · 18/01/2019 20:13

Hazard If France has those issues for even a few patients, then the other 26 contries must, too
Or they would just import from other EU countries.

Uk pharmaceutical firms are setting up local production & supply facilities in the EU, to handle supply here.
Reportedly in the meantime - because it won't all be ready by 29 March - stuff Germany can't get from other EU countries can be sourced from the US, just at higher prices

Mrsr8 · 18/01/2019 20:16

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

Mrsr8 · 18/01/2019 20:16

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

BigChocFrenzy · 18/01/2019 20:19

In this case, Arlene might actually be useful, to help push May towards SM
This seems one of the most hopeful signs:

Westminstenders: Stalemate
BigChocFrenzy · 18/01/2019 20:27

The message from Germany is so much nicer than what politicians or media in the Uk are saying.
so to make you feel loved: 🙂

""After the horrors of the Second World War, Britain did not give up on us,"
"It has welcomed Germany back as a sovereign nation and a European power.

"This we, as Germans, have not forgotten and we are grateful."

"we respect the choice" of British people who want to leave the EU"
if the country wants to leave for good, "it will always have friends in Germany and Europe".

But they said the choice was not irreversible and "our door will always remain open".
....
"Britain has become part of who we are as Europeans and therefore we would miss Britain.

"We would miss the legendary British black humour and going to the pub after work hours to drink an ale.
We would miss tea with milk and driving on the left-hand side of the road.
And we would miss seeing the panto at Christmas.

"But more than anything else, we would miss the British people - our friends across the Channel.
"Therefore Britons should know, from the bottom of our hearts, we want them to stay.""

UnnecessaryFennel · 18/01/2019 20:28

This seems one of the most hopeful signs

I thought you were referring to the 'Bowie Lives!' headline for a second there...I wish.

MissMalice · 18/01/2019 20:29

Ah, yes. The US. They will happily sell us meds. At 4 times the price.

And possibly more when demand goes up and they realise we have to pay whatever it takes to get them in the country.

Shambu · 18/01/2019 20:30

Hasn't Arlene already denied the Times headline?

borntobequiet · 18/01/2019 20:30

I swore I wouldn’t because of their vile LGBTwhatever Twitter account, but I’d have to vote LibDem, a long history with them and they are against Brexit.

BigChocFrenzy · 18/01/2019 20:31

She's denied it ? Crikey, you mean it's true after all !

BigChocFrenzy · 18/01/2019 20:32

Tom Peck@tompeck

To be fair to the guy, he did always say he was going to "lie in front of a bulldozer."

And now he has, for forty straight minutes.
😂😂

Westminstenders: Stalemate
Member745520 · 18/01/2019 20:33

Thanks BigChoc. That made me want to weep...

BigChocFrenzy · 18/01/2019 20:34

Yes, member Who could choose Boris, DD, Farage, IDS, JRM over our friends who appreciate us so much

Member745520 · 18/01/2019 20:35

^ BigChoc I refer to your post re the letter from Germany at Fri 18-Jan-19 20:27:57 of course!!

Sostenueto · 18/01/2019 20:38

I can't afford to buy meds to stockpile so I will most probably be one of those to die Mrs8. Worrying about it excessively and obsessively will just bring on my death prematurely. But let's agree to disagree. After all everyone copes in different waysFlowersWine

Member745520 · 18/01/2019 20:40

Same sentiments in the Netherlands - had an hour and half catchup phone conversation with a friend from Holland recently (we've known one another since we were 12yrs old and spent several walking holidays together over the many years) and when we touched on Brexit, she very emphatically said 'we don't want you to leave...' We shall both be 80 this year.