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Brexit

Westminstenders: Stalemate

958 replies

RedToothBrush · 17/01/2019 20:54

After May's Meaningless Vote defeat and Corbyns Pointless Vote for Your Own Party defeat we are well and truly at Stalemate.

May has invited other parties to come and talk to her to find a compromise. Except she has so many red lines all she is asking is for everyone else to compromise whilst she gets exactly what she wants.

Corbyn made a tactical error in not initially speaking to May, so now she gets to say that its Labour who are being difficult and not wanting to work together in the national interest.

Corbyn has in addition put down the red line of saying he won't talk to May until she agrees to drop no deal. Except since no deal is the default until an alternative solution is agreed! Corbyn is expecting May to say that she would revoke if there was no alternative agreed, whilst is isn't really reasonable from a compromise point of view.

They are as bad as each other. Both too stubborn for the country to move forward. Its long been said that they were alike in this respect, but having it put to the test about which is more stubborn has the potential to destory the country in the process.

In addition to this, Leadsom has removed all other Brexit related HoC business from the schedule until after the 29th January. This is a blantant attempt to try and stop backbenchers having the opportunity to table pesky amendments which the government don't like.

The 29th January is due to be the Meaningless Vote II. Given that May has made it clear that in her head 'compromise' means 'do exactly what I want and capitulate' it looks like the Withdrawal Agreement will be represented to parliament to vote on with little change. Perhaps with a few amendments there designed to attract support, though it remains to be seen where this support will come from given the spectulator level of the rejection the HoC gave it. May's Plan is literally to run the clock down and hold a gun of no deal to the head of remain leaning MPs or to scare Brexiteers by suggesting that she might revoke or there might be an extension.

Its beyond farce.

Of course the role of the Speaker becomes paramount.

Technically speaking no bill can be presented to the HoC twice in the same parliament. Its against the rules. So how is May going to get around this, and will the Speaker indeed allow it?

The Speaker may also try and help backbenchers out by allowing amendments and motions to be tabled outside the normal rules. Normally the government alone control the majority of parliamentary time, with the opposition parties being given so many debates depending on whether they are the official opposition and then according to their size. Backbenchers don't tend to get much parliamentary time. However the Speaker's actions last week showed he was willing to be creative and bend the rules to allow backbenchers more influence and power than under normal circumstances because of the way that the Executive was trying to frustrate the house. So not timetabling any further Brexit Business between now and the 29th January seems a sure fire way to have the Government straight on course for another run in with Bercow.

So what next:

Do not forget that whatever happens May has to agree to it, or we go to no deal. Whether that be a 2nd Ref, Revoking, Staying in the Customs Union, Norway + or Any Other Alternative May has to agree to it on some level.

Backbenchers can table amendments all day long to 'guide' or put pressure on May but they may not be able stop her ultimately. Boles, Grieve, Benn and Cooper seem to be the ones to watch.

So May's stubborness is the biggest barrier and issue there is to preventing No Deal.

Corbyn, whilst he might well be very right to avoid getting sucked into May's trap, isn't helping matters with his own stubborness. His priority is party politics and stopping the Labour Party from splitting. Not solving Brexit.

There is not a shread of pragmatism nor thought for the national interest between them. Party before Country.

So we are to go through all of the last week, possibly with another vote of no confidence thrown in for good measure in another 12 days.

Won't that be fun?

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RedToothBrush · 18/01/2019 21:52

What works in Nottingham sure hell will not work in Manchester. Simply because there are insufficient services to support it.

DH cycles in, because the public transport is so bad. On days when he's ill or simply not feeling up to it he either drives or I will drive him and drop him off. Which can be a nearly 1hr 45 min round trip on bad days. He does occasionally use public transport half way, and I pick him up outside circle Manchester.

He can't car share simply because of his irregular hours.

I would love an alternative but frankly it's not viable. Nottingham is a much smaller city and had much less problems to begin with.

Honestly, it's fucking stupid. If companies foot the bill they will just employ less people too.

What gets me, is also that Manchester plan to expand the cycling network gives most money and resources to areas of the city which already have some of the best transport links.

And God forbid if you live beyond the city limits into a neighbouring county. Then you are really fucked because councils are incapable of talking to each to develop a wider regional public transport network.

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PestymcPestFace · 18/01/2019 21:54

Blimey, round here there are 3 buses a day.

Ta1kinPeace · 18/01/2019 21:59

I live in Hampshire
my day job is to do with local government

40% of Hampshire has such a low population density that buses more than once a day each way are uneconomic

10% of Hampshire has such a low population density that fibre broadband is uneconomic

Any Londoner trying to tell us how to provide services deserves to be roasted

borntobequiet · 18/01/2019 22:00

I couldn’t get to work by public transport at all even though the nearest bus route is just down the hill. But the first bus is at 9:15. It would then be two more buses with long waits between, and I’d get to work at about 2 pm. But I did choose to live here, knowing the transport issues...

borntobequiet · 18/01/2019 22:01

And I couldn’t get home at all...

RedToothBrush · 18/01/2019 22:01

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-human-rights-act-repeal-brexit-echr-commons-parliament-conservatives-a8734886.html?amp&__twitter_impression=true
Theresa May to consider axeing Human Rights Act after Brexit, minister reveals
‘It is right that we wait until the process of leaving the EU concludes before considering the matter further’

COUGH

The Human Rights Act.

www.centreonconstitutionalchange.ac.uk/blog/human-rights-act-repeal-and-devolution-0
And an article from 2015 which reminds you of lots of reasons why This Is A Very Bad Thing before you can cough GFA, ECHR and devolved assemblies.

May previously made a point of saying the WA would not mean we left the EHCR.

Of course with no deal...

And that's the prize the hard right are chasing.

Keep your eyes on it

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Icantreachthepretzels · 18/01/2019 22:03

is your Tory a Leaver? Get him out. Vote Labour. Is he a Remainer, though a bastard? Vote LD.

Yes he campaigned for leave.

in your case i'd see if the Labour MP is pro remain and has bollocks to vote against the whip? If it's a weak sappy fool or pro brexit vote libdem?

I guess I'll just have to wait and see. I have a feeling the labour candidate last time wasn't especially pro brexit - but I can't know if he has a spine until he gets into the HoC.

I just worry that I'll vote lib dem and the tory bastard will then beat labour by one vote ... I'd never forgive myself.

RedToothBrush · 18/01/2019 22:03

But I did choose to live here, knowing the transport issues...

Can everyone choose to live somewhere with good transport? What would happen if they tried to?

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umpteennamechanges · 18/01/2019 22:04

Also in (semi rural) Hampshire like @Ta1kinPeace

My commute is already 1.5 hours by car...by public transport it would be 3 hours + each way!

PestymcPestFace · 18/01/2019 22:05

I'd also keep you eye on permanent UN seats. India would like one and if our border disputes and reputation is worse than theirs, they may get ours. The ultimate sanction for GFA.

RedToothBrush · 18/01/2019 22:05

I'm sure gridlock at Dover will do wonders for air quality.

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Mistigri · 18/01/2019 22:05

40% of Hampshire has such a low population density that buses more than once a day each way are uneconomic

Uneconomic measured how and by whom? You need to include the cost of not running buses in this calculation. (Though I appreciate that for a council it probably isn't possible to take a holistic view due to lack of funding).

Mistigri · 18/01/2019 22:08

The Human Rights Act.

They've been trying to do this for years. And the problem is - guess what- our old friend the Good Friday Agreement.

This is just willy waving for Rule Britannia Tories.

Ta1kinPeace · 18/01/2019 22:08

Mistigri
Outside London the council has no control over bus routes.
If Stagecoach say its uneconomic, that is that.

borntobequiet · 18/01/2019 22:12

It was my choice, I’m not moaning...of course many can’t choose where they live. No one round here without a car or a lift in one could think of working where I do, a city only 20 miles away. Actually, if the bus service started at 7:15 and finished at 6:15 it might be possible, but a 90 min commute on 3 buses each way, with the first bus actually going 6 miles in the wrong direction to make a connection.

IrenetheQuaint · 18/01/2019 22:13

New Telegraph piece by Peter Foster:

"Theresa May has left European diplomats in a state of “disbelief” following a series of phone calls to EU leaders in which she made no change to her demands despite her Brexit plan being voted down by a 230-vote margin this week.

Senior EU diplomatic sources said that Mrs May’s unchanged stance was “greeted with incredulity” following a call with the German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Thursday night."

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/18/theresa-may-leaves-diplomats-disbelief-presenting-eu-leaders/

[paywall if you've used up your free articles]

RedToothBrush · 18/01/2019 22:16

A local Councillor tried to get to the next town by bus after the last bus route rethink. Its across a county border, 5 miles away.

It took her 3 hrs as there is now no direct route.

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SwedishEdith · 18/01/2019 22:16

Shitty public transport? This story was heartbreaking.

'Need to sign on? You'll have to walk 24 miles to the jobcentre
Each week, it takes Ray Taylor an entire day to claim benefits. He can’t afford the bus – and others in his Cambridgeshire town won’t have the option either when the route is cut in March'

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/jan/07/need-to-sign-on-youll-have-to-walk-24-miles-to-jobcentre

Ta1kinPeace · 18/01/2019 22:21

I went to Vienna before Christmas.

Public transport there is treated as a public right

  • money spent on public transport saves money on city centre parking spaces
  • money spent on public transport reduces pressure on city centre housing
  • all night public transport reduces pressure on public health
  • utterly reliable evening public transport supports city centre businesses
its not rocket science
RedToothBrush · 18/01/2019 22:24

Vienna City Centre doesn't have traffic issues does it?

Lovely city.

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Ta1kinPeace · 18/01/2019 22:28

RTB
Vienna City Centre doesn't have traffic issues does it?
No
because at E17 for a three day unlimited transport pass
and the u bahn every three minutes day and night
you'd be MAD to take a car in

my DD is loving her Erasmus year there

RedToothBrush · 18/01/2019 22:33

Also how do you justify exemptions for all NHS workers?

BIL and SIL are both NHS workers. They have a household income of at least £140,000.

Fair enough for lower paid NHS staff, but please explain that to me.

And why NHS workers and not teachers?

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Apileofballyhoo · 18/01/2019 22:34

It's all so so depressing.

OlennasWimple · 18/01/2019 22:41

Buses don''t have to mean big vehicles that take forever and a day to get anywhere because they go through every estate and stop and every other lamp post, though

Where I live (not in the UK), we have a sort of bus / taxi hybrid - minis buses that run the same route every day and pick up waiting customers if they have space, but that also have regular customers and drive them where they need to go. For example, a friend has an agreement with a bus driver to pick up his son from school every day and take him home - he doesn't go straight home, the driver goes around other places on the way there first, but it's cheaper than a taxi but quicker than a conventional bus

Which is a long way of saying, if the really clever people wanted to make public transport in rural areas work, they would come up with innovative solutions rather than shrugging and saying that it's just too expensive to bother running a service

RedToothBrush · 18/01/2019 22:49

if the really clever people wanted to make public transport in rural areas work, they would come up with innovative solutions rather than shrugging and saying that it's just too expensive to bother running a service

DH and I had a conversation about this, this week after watching uncivil war. Really clever people are not allowed to shine in this country because of office politics and the acceptability of 'not getting ideas above station'. Its all part of 'know your place mentality'.

Dominic Cummings assumed that clever people would come forward to make Brexit work. But where were they?

I don't believe it was simply an absence of a plan - but an absence of people able to identify problems and come up with solutions.

Instead you just have a bunch of people bullshitting from all sides to out witt each other whilst completely ignoring the real problems.

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