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Brexit

Westminstenders: Stalemate

958 replies

RedToothBrush · 17/01/2019 20:54

After May's Meaningless Vote defeat and Corbyns Pointless Vote for Your Own Party defeat we are well and truly at Stalemate.

May has invited other parties to come and talk to her to find a compromise. Except she has so many red lines all she is asking is for everyone else to compromise whilst she gets exactly what she wants.

Corbyn made a tactical error in not initially speaking to May, so now she gets to say that its Labour who are being difficult and not wanting to work together in the national interest.

Corbyn has in addition put down the red line of saying he won't talk to May until she agrees to drop no deal. Except since no deal is the default until an alternative solution is agreed! Corbyn is expecting May to say that she would revoke if there was no alternative agreed, whilst is isn't really reasonable from a compromise point of view.

They are as bad as each other. Both too stubborn for the country to move forward. Its long been said that they were alike in this respect, but having it put to the test about which is more stubborn has the potential to destory the country in the process.

In addition to this, Leadsom has removed all other Brexit related HoC business from the schedule until after the 29th January. This is a blantant attempt to try and stop backbenchers having the opportunity to table pesky amendments which the government don't like.

The 29th January is due to be the Meaningless Vote II. Given that May has made it clear that in her head 'compromise' means 'do exactly what I want and capitulate' it looks like the Withdrawal Agreement will be represented to parliament to vote on with little change. Perhaps with a few amendments there designed to attract support, though it remains to be seen where this support will come from given the spectulator level of the rejection the HoC gave it. May's Plan is literally to run the clock down and hold a gun of no deal to the head of remain leaning MPs or to scare Brexiteers by suggesting that she might revoke or there might be an extension.

Its beyond farce.

Of course the role of the Speaker becomes paramount.

Technically speaking no bill can be presented to the HoC twice in the same parliament. Its against the rules. So how is May going to get around this, and will the Speaker indeed allow it?

The Speaker may also try and help backbenchers out by allowing amendments and motions to be tabled outside the normal rules. Normally the government alone control the majority of parliamentary time, with the opposition parties being given so many debates depending on whether they are the official opposition and then according to their size. Backbenchers don't tend to get much parliamentary time. However the Speaker's actions last week showed he was willing to be creative and bend the rules to allow backbenchers more influence and power than under normal circumstances because of the way that the Executive was trying to frustrate the house. So not timetabling any further Brexit Business between now and the 29th January seems a sure fire way to have the Government straight on course for another run in with Bercow.

So what next:

Do not forget that whatever happens May has to agree to it, or we go to no deal. Whether that be a 2nd Ref, Revoking, Staying in the Customs Union, Norway + or Any Other Alternative May has to agree to it on some level.

Backbenchers can table amendments all day long to 'guide' or put pressure on May but they may not be able stop her ultimately. Boles, Grieve, Benn and Cooper seem to be the ones to watch.

So May's stubborness is the biggest barrier and issue there is to preventing No Deal.

Corbyn, whilst he might well be very right to avoid getting sucked into May's trap, isn't helping matters with his own stubborness. His priority is party politics and stopping the Labour Party from splitting. Not solving Brexit.

There is not a shread of pragmatism nor thought for the national interest between them. Party before Country.

So we are to go through all of the last week, possibly with another vote of no confidence thrown in for good measure in another 12 days.

Won't that be fun?

OP posts:
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borntobequiet · 18/01/2019 18:09

Weird as - well, anything.
BBC reporting Boris’ “falsehoods”, also failure of Dept on International Trade to sign any free trade agreements, also actually explaining that EU deals with countries round the world are better than WTO alone. Has someone woken up? Have the hostages been released? Even the newsreaders sounding nicer when talking about German politicians.
In other news, it’s snowing here. Damn it.

Violetparis · 18/01/2019 18:14

I think the issues in the Labour Party can only be solved by another leadership election, no idea if this is possible. Could have Corbyn with his soft Brexit (know that his plan is vague !) against Starmer/Umunna with a PV. No idea who would win.

ThereWillBeAdequateFood · 18/01/2019 18:15

Somebody pass the Valium

Sorry but if I get my hands on any Valium I’m keeping it for myself Grin

Not another GE. I’m desperately hoping some sensible people in the Labour Party talk some sense into Corbynn. If he fights a GE with the same waffley drivel he’s been spouting for months Labour will lose. And that loss will be massive.

Doesn’t matter how I vote I’m in a ridiculously safe Tory seat. Sad

PestymcPestFace · 18/01/2019 18:18

John Bercow is European of the week www.rfi.fr/emission/20190113-john-bercow-le-speaker-chambre-communes?ref=tw but extreme leavers think that makes him a traitor.

Mrsr8 · 18/01/2019 18:22

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

1tisILeClerc · 18/01/2019 18:22

{Sorry but if I get my hands on any Valium I’m keeping it for myself}
Living outside the UK seems to be doing it for me, especially if I turn the computer off.

TatianaLarina · 18/01/2019 18:29

Personally I’d rather Parliament seized control of Brexit from the government than a GE. But Boles’s/ Cooper’s plans (Ie delay exit day if there’s no deal by early March) require suspension of normal Parliament rules. So tricky.

It’s bascially the Tory Brexiters vs cross party Remainers atm. With Corbyn wandering around in the gap between with a hoe looking vague.

BiglyBadgers · 18/01/2019 18:30

I have some antipsychotics knocking around I'm considering donating to the cabinet in the hope it might lessen their delusions.

Quietrebel · 18/01/2019 18:32

extreme leavers think that makes him a traitor.

Well fuck THEM.
They're the ones tearing the country apart.

BigChocFrenzy · 18/01/2019 18:34

If that GE is held 28 Feb as rumoured, most likely outcome is that May gets a clear majority
imo, that would take Remain completely off the table and restore her power over at least her Remain rebels.

The question then would be whether May drops redlines and tries to negotiate a softer PD
or just runs out the remaining 4 weeks to No Deal,
or maybe asks for an extension on whatever ground, but really so that both sides have more time to prep for it.

BigChocFrenzy · 18/01/2019 18:36

So, I agree with Tatiana: I do NOT want a GE
The current HoC - which has seized some power back from executive - should try to sort things out

icannotremember · 18/01/2019 18:40

I just can't get my head around an elected representative standing up, looking the public in the eye and denying saying something which they were recorded saying on numerous occasions.

But we have always been at war with Eastasia.

Quietrebel · 18/01/2019 18:41

A GE would be the last thing we need.
I thought Corbyn had agreed to push a PV should he not be able to force a GE. How often does he want to try??

BigChocFrenzy · 18/01/2019 18:41

Best advice is from Germany !

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/8f238e06-1aa4-11e9-abc2-c39e91e3ea05

Bitte! Stop Brexit and stay with us,
Germany asks UK in letter signed by likely next German Chancellor
...
Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer,,_ the new head of Angela Merkel’s party, is the most senior German politician yet to openly appeal to the UK to abandon Brexit.

She is among more than two dozen leading figures from German politics, industry and the arts to announce
an “unprecedented” cross-party campaign to persuade Britain “from the bottom of our hearts” to remain

PestymcPestFace · 18/01/2019 18:42

My fave take on the Junker - May exchange of information

She told him she's going to call a General Election
Junker told her he'd just spat red wine on his trousers.

So who would lead the Conservatives into a general election?

Quietrebel · 18/01/2019 18:42

But we have always been at war with Eastasia.

Who controls the past controls the future.

BigChocFrenzy · 18/01/2019 18:44

Pesty If a GE is called before Brexit, then May will lead the Tories
(unless she has genuinely serious health problems from stress)

BigChocFrenzy · 18/01/2019 18:48

Adam Fleming@adamfleming 😂 < but a serious consideration >

I must say this is the reason against extending A50 and having the UK participating in the European elections that is most often cited in Brussels, not the legality.
"You'll send us 73 @Nigel_Farage's !"

ThereWillBeAdequateFood · 18/01/2019 18:49

But what kind of Brexit would May put in her manifesto? Would it be her WA? That’s about as popular with the electorate as a cup of cold sick.

I’m shitting myself about a GE. I’d rather have a people’s vote and I’m not keen on that.

PestymcPestFace · 18/01/2019 18:50

Remember in Oceania 85% of the population are prols.

Airstrip one seems a distinct possibility.

PestymcPestFace · 18/01/2019 18:52

I'd rather have a government act in a grown up manner and sort things. We all live in home.

SwedishEdith · 18/01/2019 18:57

Have you seen this from Liz Kershaw? She thinks it's great news that Philips are moving 430 jobs out of the UK. Her "argument" appears to be that this proves they have faith in frictionless trade. Because, yes, let's move jobs out of country and to one that guarantees there'll be frictionless trade to its bigger share of the market. She the goes on to say Brexit is becoming like a religion. Every time you think 'you couldn't make this shit up' someone pushes you that little bit further.

www.eadt.co.uk/business/brexiteer-liz-kershaw-on-philips-closing-glemsford-baby-bottle-factory-1-5857033

BigChocFrenzy · 18/01/2019 18:57

I expect May would say in any GE campaign that she would try for a better deal, but will definitely carry out Brexit.
BUT
if she doesn't relax her red lines, then it's still her WA or No Deal

In other words, same choices as now, but 5 weeks wasted and power taken away from the HoC,
so she can run down the remaining 4 weeks to No Deal when the EU don't blink

There may be an extension just to give several months to prep for No Deal - neither side is sufficiently prepped for 29 March

BigChocFrenzy · 18/01/2019 19:02

Corbyn is exactly the kind of over-promoted nonetity who think he's cunning
and hence who would let her have a GE to do this

I hope wiser heads persuade him against agreeing to a GE flush his head down the loo until he sees sense

LonelyandTiredandLow · 18/01/2019 19:02

I apologise for my semi-brain fart re the GE. Was half place marking and exhaling my frustrations at the same time.

I've said from the start re the far right/alt-right/dirty money from Russia/Breitbart/Bannon and Mercer/the USB passed from Farage to Assange links. The control discussion from Boris I kept bringing up at the start too as it was all about how disillusioned people were, which is a strong trait in toxic masculinity. Mix that in with Facebook's links, Daily Mail and Express, et voila. Perfect storm. I think this all goes far deeper and further back than we can imagine and has been designed by the men at the very top. Tin foil hat maybe, but fuck it, most of it has
been proven now anyway.

I honestly fear that the only way to calm it all back down again is for those who voted for it to experience the reality. I think that is the fastest way for sensible politicians to be able to resume. When people have realised Brexit is the land of gruel and rationing rather than milk and honey. It's not what I want by any stretch, but I can see the upsides when considering the lack of empathy towards refugees for example - maybe after the undoubted initial rise in populism some recognition of humility would surface?