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Brexit

Westminstenders: Stalemate

958 replies

RedToothBrush · 17/01/2019 20:54

After May's Meaningless Vote defeat and Corbyns Pointless Vote for Your Own Party defeat we are well and truly at Stalemate.

May has invited other parties to come and talk to her to find a compromise. Except she has so many red lines all she is asking is for everyone else to compromise whilst she gets exactly what she wants.

Corbyn made a tactical error in not initially speaking to May, so now she gets to say that its Labour who are being difficult and not wanting to work together in the national interest.

Corbyn has in addition put down the red line of saying he won't talk to May until she agrees to drop no deal. Except since no deal is the default until an alternative solution is agreed! Corbyn is expecting May to say that she would revoke if there was no alternative agreed, whilst is isn't really reasonable from a compromise point of view.

They are as bad as each other. Both too stubborn for the country to move forward. Its long been said that they were alike in this respect, but having it put to the test about which is more stubborn has the potential to destory the country in the process.

In addition to this, Leadsom has removed all other Brexit related HoC business from the schedule until after the 29th January. This is a blantant attempt to try and stop backbenchers having the opportunity to table pesky amendments which the government don't like.

The 29th January is due to be the Meaningless Vote II. Given that May has made it clear that in her head 'compromise' means 'do exactly what I want and capitulate' it looks like the Withdrawal Agreement will be represented to parliament to vote on with little change. Perhaps with a few amendments there designed to attract support, though it remains to be seen where this support will come from given the spectulator level of the rejection the HoC gave it. May's Plan is literally to run the clock down and hold a gun of no deal to the head of remain leaning MPs or to scare Brexiteers by suggesting that she might revoke or there might be an extension.

Its beyond farce.

Of course the role of the Speaker becomes paramount.

Technically speaking no bill can be presented to the HoC twice in the same parliament. Its against the rules. So how is May going to get around this, and will the Speaker indeed allow it?

The Speaker may also try and help backbenchers out by allowing amendments and motions to be tabled outside the normal rules. Normally the government alone control the majority of parliamentary time, with the opposition parties being given so many debates depending on whether they are the official opposition and then according to their size. Backbenchers don't tend to get much parliamentary time. However the Speaker's actions last week showed he was willing to be creative and bend the rules to allow backbenchers more influence and power than under normal circumstances because of the way that the Executive was trying to frustrate the house. So not timetabling any further Brexit Business between now and the 29th January seems a sure fire way to have the Government straight on course for another run in with Bercow.

So what next:

Do not forget that whatever happens May has to agree to it, or we go to no deal. Whether that be a 2nd Ref, Revoking, Staying in the Customs Union, Norway + or Any Other Alternative May has to agree to it on some level.

Backbenchers can table amendments all day long to 'guide' or put pressure on May but they may not be able stop her ultimately. Boles, Grieve, Benn and Cooper seem to be the ones to watch.

So May's stubborness is the biggest barrier and issue there is to preventing No Deal.

Corbyn, whilst he might well be very right to avoid getting sucked into May's trap, isn't helping matters with his own stubborness. His priority is party politics and stopping the Labour Party from splitting. Not solving Brexit.

There is not a shread of pragmatism nor thought for the national interest between them. Party before Country.

So we are to go through all of the last week, possibly with another vote of no confidence thrown in for good measure in another 12 days.

Won't that be fun?

OP posts:
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Loletta · 18/01/2019 17:36

DGR
Grin

DGRossetti · 18/01/2019 17:37

Speaking of passing the blame ... it seems that it's now the rest of the worlds fault poor old Liam Fox hasn't been inundated with trade deals ...

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46917999

The UK has yet to finalise agreements to replace existing free trade deals the EU has with 40 big economies if there is a no-deal Brexit.

International Trade Secretary Liam Fox said he "hoped" they would but it depended on whether other countries were "willing to put the work in".

(contd)

looks like there's still a lot of "We're British donchaknow ?" needing to be kicked out of us yet in the world.

DW and I enjoy a bit of stand up - especially from outside the UK. He's an Indian guy we caught on Netflix recently ...

Hazardswans · 18/01/2019 17:38

Unicorn thinking maybe the MPs could divide not by party but by No Deal or No Brexit groups for a one off GE.

Fuck trying to be seen not to divide let's be honest about it.

Ballot paper has your usual choices of MPs but with their brexit pledge added each party puts up a potential MP for each brexit option.

DGRossetti · 18/01/2019 17:38

What the hell, TFIF. If you can't roll back the years, roll back the carpet

TatianaLarina · 18/01/2019 17:39

The government is considering GE because they know they are cornered vis a vis No Deal.

Step 1. Take No Deal off the table as a poltical option.
Step 2. Determine which route to taking it off the table in legal terms.

For Step 2. are only 3 options:

  • resurrect the dead WA (haha)
  • an alternative deal based on changed red lines (if EU allows extension).
  • revoke

May cannot tweak the deal to get it through Parl, the ERGs don’t want anything with a CU, and of course they want to preserve the option of No Deal.

They all want to avoid a PV which the polls indicate favour Remain.

So it makes sense for them to take a punt, throw all the cards in the air and hope they fall in way that favours the ERGs.

DangermousesSidekick · 18/01/2019 17:40

LonelyandTiredandLow No way am I backing either the Greens or the LibDems right now. I've voted for both in the past and even joined the Greens once. All they are now is whatever they think might appeal to The Youf, usually the rich middle class liberal Youf, which right now includes very destructive attitudes towards women. Encouraging the commercialisation of women's bodies? Destroying women's single sex spaces? Destroying safeguarding for children? The latter two in favour of over-entitled narcissistic men's upset feelings. Look up Aimee Challenor and her father. No way would I touch either of those misogynistic groups with a barge pole.

DGRossetti · 18/01/2019 17:42

The underlying problem is the the UKs electoral system still isn't fit for 21st century purpose.

Trying to hold another election without addressing that issue is to fundamentally misunderstand how the fuck we got here in the first place.

Tory and Labour Remainers (yes, there are a few) should reflect on how things may have been different had the UK had some form of proportional representation - even the crappy system the previous referendum was on.

Moving forward, it's unsustainable to govern a country where the electoral system completely disenfranchises anyone who didn't win.

Icantreachthepretzels · 18/01/2019 17:45

In this case, the worst thing would be a GE that effectively changed nothing.

The worst case is surely a sweeping tory majority that delivers the hardest of hard brexits, rips up the GFA because they no longer have to consider NI once the DUP has lost their hold on power and gives the country austerity on steroids and an America first trade deal with the U.S resulting in chlorinated chicken, the end of the NHS, the end of the welfare state and lower workers rights. And even if we then voted them out in 2024 - the damage would be unfixable and so many lives would have been ruined and lost in the meantime.

Faced with all that - I would consider a GE that effectively changed nothing to actually be a positive outcome. Pretty much the best we can hope for in the circumstances.

DGRossetti · 18/01/2019 17:46

Seems there's a lot of .NET development in Belgium right now Grin

Limburg, Leuven 12 months ...

Don't even need Dutch ...

Motheroffourdragons · 18/01/2019 17:47

This reply has been deleted

This has been deleted by MNHQ to protect the privacy of the user.

IsobelKarev · 18/01/2019 17:47

I'm guilty of delusional thinking sometimes. I honestly keep catching myself that it will be okay because at some point "they" will sort out the mess. Because "they" have to. Because the alternative is unthinkable. But, of course, history teaches that frequently that isn't the case. And when I really try to figure out who could possibly be "they" in this case I can't think of anyone of significance in either the government or the opposition who would be prepared to put country before party. And they are all so entrenched in hatred of their opponents that actually compromising is damn near impossible.

It's a bit like getting die hard football fans to admit that their opposing team actually have a couple of good players.

RedToothBrush · 18/01/2019 17:48

A GE is the only thing that stops the Tory Party from splitting trying to avoid no deal.

It's in the hope that Corbyn is so fecking useless no one will vote for him and May can get a majority she can actually use and the HoC loses its majority of pesky opposition plus tory rebels who keep tabling amendments that Theresa doesn't like.

Of course it could backfire too.

But if its that or destroy the party I can see the attraction of it for May...

Also I note going for the quick election too. May had too long a run into the last election. That suited Corbyn better.

I hope that she has ordered the paper for the leaflets this time.

OP posts:
TatianaLarina · 18/01/2019 17:49

This Guardian podcast really worth listening to: How Brexit Unravelled

Charting May’s ideological journey from the referendum to last week’s defeat. With Chris Wilkins - former director of Tory strategy and Danny Boffey - journalist.

Essentially - Wilkins favoured conciliation, compromise, cross party consensus because the ref result was close. He believes a deal could have been negotiated that could have got through Parl.

May soon diverged down the hard Brexit route. The unexpected 2017 election result threw her further into the arms of the ERG and the DUP.

missclimpson · 18/01/2019 17:50

I do think some of these "things can't get any worse" ideas aren't helped by the trivial "back in time for..." and historical "reenactment" programmes. It is all so lightweight and one-dimensional.
You see the same sort of thing on Mumsnet too, I think, where people seem to think that everyone in the fifties, sixties, seventies thought and behaved in the same way, without any differences or nuances of class, education, experience.
The people who bang on about the spirit of the Blitz and Dunkirk have obviously never read any serious literature on the subject or listened to the real experiences of parents / grandparents.

IsobelKarev · 18/01/2019 17:50

By a stroke of luck my "register to vote" form arrived today (just moved house) so I'm gonna get that sorted now. Just in case of a GE.

DGRossetti · 18/01/2019 17:50

It's a bit like getting die hard football fans to admit that their opposing team actually have a couple of good players.

Interestingly, my take is that the religion of Brexit transcends that of football, or some other tribal pursuits ... I'm not a sporty person, but when I've heard sporty chats at work, there's always been some give and take where people will happily diss their own team, and praise individuals on others. Even when England were defeated last year, there was a lot of good cheer about it (as there should be).

Brexit is something else ....

PerverseConverse · 18/01/2019 17:52

Somebody pass the Valium...

IsobelKarev · 18/01/2019 17:56

Some of my extended family are die hard fans. They refuse to acknowledge anything good about the local rivals. They won't even support England when the rivals' players are on the team. They sit in the section of the ground nearest the away fans at every match and spend half the time jeering rather than watching the game.

They are the reason I prefer rugby!

TatianaLarina · 18/01/2019 17:57

In this case, the worst thing would be a GE that effectively changed nothing.

The worst thing would be more Brexiters and more No Dealers elected, Remain losing seats.

Mrsr8 · 18/01/2019 17:57

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Message withdrawn at poster's request.

DGRossetti · 18/01/2019 18:00

We can all play "what if...."

If as soon as the referendum result was known, Cameron convened a cross party working group (the guy was in coalition for five years, it's hardly like he'd have to stick his cock in pigs mouth. Again.) and announced that they would try and get a balance of views on how to proceed, then they would have gotten a positive - albeit initially grudging - response from the more moderate Remainers.

That would have "respected the referendum result" (which was of course advisory) while allowing a future course to be carefully mapped out. With plenty of transparency and openness, we would have inched forward carrying moderate - but respecting - remainers forward.

Unfortunately the absolute contempt heaped on even the most moderate remainers has polarized and poisoned the debate beyond repair.

And that's where we are. Sadly - as the Brexiteers (that haven't yet twigged) will realise, we all have to drink from the poisoned well.

IsobelKarev · 18/01/2019 18:02

I know mrs8, it's really exciting this year too! It's the only thing keeping me sane through the Brexit shit. I'm also an Edinburgh fan so we've an important game tonight too.

Mrsr8 · 18/01/2019 18:03

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Message withdrawn at poster's request.

Mrsr8 · 18/01/2019 18:04

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

TatianaLarina · 18/01/2019 18:04

A GE is the only thing that stops the Tory Party from splitting trying to avoid no deal.

I’d say postpone. They’re trying to preserve the Tory party, Brexit, No Deal.