Westminstenders: Stalemate

[RedToothBrush]

After May's Meaningless Vote defeat and Corbyns Pointless Vote for Your Own Party defeat we are well and truly at Stalemate.

May has invited other parties to come and talk to her to find a compromise. Except she has so many red lines all she is asking is for everyone else to compromise whilst she gets exactly what she wants.

Corbyn made a tactical error in not initially speaking to May, so now she gets to say that its Labour who are being difficult and not wanting to work together in the national interest.

Corbyn has in addition put down the red line of saying he won't talk to May until she agrees to drop no deal. Except since no deal is the default until an alternative solution is agreed! Corbyn is expecting May to say that she would revoke if there was no alternative agreed, whilst is isn't really reasonable from a compromise point of view.

They are as bad as each other. Both too stubborn for the country to move forward. Its long been said that they were alike in this respect, but having it put to the test about which is more stubborn has the potential to destory the country in the process.

In addition to this, Leadsom has removed all other Brexit related HoC business from the schedule until after the 29th January. This is a blantant attempt to try and stop backbenchers having the opportunity to table pesky amendments which the government don't like.

The 29th January is due to be the Meaningless Vote II. Given that May has made it clear that in her head 'compromise' means 'do exactly what I want and capitulate' it looks like the Withdrawal Agreement will be represented to parliament to vote on with little change. Perhaps with a few amendments there designed to attract support, though it remains to be seen where this support will come from given the spectulator level of the rejection the HoC gave it. May's Plan is literally to run the clock down and hold a gun of no deal to the head of remain leaning MPs or to scare Brexiteers by suggesting that she might revoke or there might be an extension.

Its beyond farce.

Of course the role of the Speaker becomes paramount.

Technically speaking no bill can be presented to the HoC twice in the same parliament. Its against the rules. So how is May going to get around this, and will the Speaker indeed allow it?

The Speaker may also try and help backbenchers out by allowing amendments and motions to be tabled outside the normal rules. Normally the government alone control the majority of parliamentary time, with the opposition parties being given so many debates depending on whether they are the official opposition and then according to their size. Backbenchers don't tend to get much parliamentary time. However the Speaker's actions last week showed he was willing to be creative and bend the rules to allow backbenchers more influence and power than under normal circumstances because of the way that the Executive was trying to frustrate the house. So not timetabling any further Brexit Business between now and the 29th January seems a sure fire way to have the Government straight on course for another run in with Bercow.

So what next:

Do not forget that whatever happens May has to agree to it, or we go to no deal. Whether that be a 2nd Ref, Revoking, Staying in the Customs Union, Norway + or Any Other Alternative May has to agree to it on some level.

Backbenchers can table amendments all day long to 'guide' or put pressure on May but they may not be able stop her ultimately. Boles, Grieve, Benn and Cooper seem to be the ones to watch.

So May's stubborness is the biggest barrier and issue there is to preventing No Deal.

Corbyn, whilst he might well be very right to avoid getting sucked into May's trap, isn't helping matters with his own stubborness. His priority is party politics and stopping the Labour Party from splitting. Not solving Brexit.

There is not a shread of pragmatism nor thought for the national interest between them. Party before Country.

So we are to go through all of the last week, possibly with another vote of no confidence thrown in for good measure in another 12 days.

Won't that be fun?

With Farage announcing that he will be standing as a MEP again I think the UK will be leaving.

I'm heading off into conspiracy theory here.
I fear a trade deal with the US will ultimately be the most expensive thing ever.

I don't think this is conspiracy theory at all. I think it's a pretty fair assessment given what we know about the current US government and the state we will be in after a no deal brexit in particular. We also know That Boris, Farage, Trump and Bannon are all part of the same club. Boris' lie about Turkey is straight from the Bannon/Trump and dare I say it Putin playbook. Outright lies work, Trump and Putin have both shown that to be the only truth they care about.

I'm pretty sure this isn't just my paranoia talking.

I just can’t believe people think it won’t affect them.

I know it's patronising to try and unpick what other people think (although sometimes it's needed), but I suspect that isn't really what they think - it's only how they can express it.

One of the memes of Brexit has been "Well things can't get any worse for me" ... which I would be more inclined to believe is the motivation.

There are a lot of Leave voters who have been led to believe that. And it's only when things do get worse, that things will change.

I guess you might characterise it as a similar situation to the men that signed up in WW1 on the basis at least it was "3 hots and a cot" as our left ponding chums so eloquently put it.

{If so many want no deal what's the vision their putting forward? I don't get it... all I see is strife and dwindling services.}

I said to DH the other day, they want the Call The Midwife society. The warm fuzzy feelings, the smiles, the kids all playing together in the village hall, the community all mucking in, the afternoon tea and homemade Christmas decorations. But they're oblivious to the hunger, the dilapidation, the filth, the grinding poverty and the low life expectancy.

Here is Boris lying.

He is in front of a digger.

I seriously doubt anyone batting of no deal has given it more than 5 minutes thought.

Apart from the very high-profile ones who have given a lot of thought to how much they will profit from it.

However, maybe the solution is to put Treeza in a bottle ?

My preferred solution is to lock Treeza and Jezza up somewhere to shout meaningless slogans at each other in perpetuity while we find some grown-ups to tackle the mess they've made. Except that grown-ups seem to be in short supply.

I don't believe the UK will get any decent deal with a lot of countries - starting with the US.

The moment another country even suggests a deal that is anywhere near as good as the deal it has with the EU, I can't see the EU taking it lying down. (Remember how the EU faced the US down over steel tariffs ?). After all, who on earth (really, who on earth ) is going to anger a partner in a £100 billion deal, for the sake of a partner in a £1 billion deal ???????

The UK will end up adrift on the globe approaching all sorts of countries, and then wondering why any deals being offered aren't as generous or expansive as the deal the EU (or China, or India ....) has.

I did write to Tim Cook a while back, and suggested that Apple buy the UK. It would be crass to post the full text, but he declined saying that the UK is long overdue an upgrade and not compatible with iOS 12. Maybe we should try Google ?

(I did also ask Google if they could buy the UK, but they just assumed I meant "cauldron or bucket")

You've all summarized my inklings.

-The ukip fraction of leavers I know feel superior to Americans for some reason. Might have something historical to it...but im no history buff. So whatever deals we make with americans will be good for us because we are, supposedly, naturally better. More delusion. Also America is hyper masculine so doing deals with macho means the UK is also macho.

-some fuckers will make a lot of money and the will of people will be to ground down to be outraged?

-The moderate leavers I know like the call the midwife feelz and go no further then that.

So much to look forward to after the initial food/med supply issues....

George Eaton @georgeeaton
Three Conservative cabinet ministers and six junior ministers have told their local associations to be prepared for an election, reveals @stephenkb

www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2019/01/three-cabinet-ministers-have-told-their-local-parties-prepare-general

Four of them named 28 February as the date.

The 28 Feb is five weeks from next Thursday (24th). By law parliament is dissolved 25 working days before a general election.

So its possible.

One of the memes of Brexit has been "Well things can't get any worse for me"

I was pondering this, along with the old "They won't let it happen" on my way home tonight.

I wonder if there's a belief that there's some of kind of barrier, below which someone (the government?!) is forced to step in and help. So things can't get any worse without falling from 'just about holding it together' to 'ceasing to manage' at which point they will intervene.

If this is the case, then these people seem to have far more faith in the government than I do...

@Red does that mean we’d drop out on No Deal because of the election?

MissMalice the EU would extend for a GE.

They could do with an extension to get legislation ready for a no deal. We were meant to have a WA all wrapped up by Sept / Oct.

Can't really see a general election being useful.

No guarantees May would ask for one though.

does that mean we’d drop out on No Deal because of the election?

given previous statements, I guess the EU would offer an extension. But it would be a delicate situation, as they wouldn't want to risk offering an extension, and then having to deal with an equally moronic government that just starts the whole cycle again.

So it would need to be caveated in some way

Surely by now we're in the zone of imagining the absolute worst, since that's probably what would happen.

In this case, the worst thing would be a GE that effectively changed nothing.

(Incidentally, what would that mean for Treezas "pledge" that she would not lead the Tories into the next election. Is that negated because "pledge" is a furniture polish, whereas "promise" is "promise" ?)

An extension I mean

if there's a belief that there's some of kind of barrier

It's some sort of infantile magical thinking, IMO. That "they (possibly the Gods)" won't let things get worse than some arbitrary level (carefully calibrated to be bad enough to maximise BlitzSpirit without lasting too long or being a bit too harsh), like a divine safety net. Also that "we (the British)" are magically just better, mm'kay?

If every remainer backed lib dems we would have a clean sweep at stopping Brexit. If we ever got to a stage where a GE was possible remain have the upper hand as the only group who all want the same thing. How it would work in reality though...wish greens and libs would merge.

No guarantees May would ask for one though.

(re: extension)

On one of the previous threads, someone posted an image of text which said that the EU could unilaterally decide to extend A50 without the UK requesting it. Someone commented "was the EU trolling us ?"

My feeling is (if true, it's not been repeated or commented on since ?) is that it was put out there to spike Treezas guns, in case she started a "I'd love to ask for an extension, but they'd only say no" line, and try and blame the EU.

If the posted text was correct then A50 can be extended without the UKs asking. But since the UK is a sovereign country, it would require the UKs agreement.

LonelyandTiredandLow that isn't the way GE work.

People will vote on other issues not just Brexit.

If you start from the premise that TM's priority is to prevent her party from being obliterated, you can see how she would rather have No Deal than Revoke or PV. Blame it on HoC for not getting her deal through. Blame it on Labour for refusing to consult with her. Blame it on the people for choosing to Leave in the first place: they're only enacting the will of the people.
It's completely within character that instead of giving up on the WA, considering she can't change it, she's going to attempt to change the arithmetic of the HoC. Even if she gets a majority at next GE, I don't see how she would get the deal through though..

Sadly magical thinking is a by-product of evolution. Only the winners survive, so it must be magic.

That's why the losers of WW2 (for example) aren't being heard. They all died 1939-1945 .

Notice how WW2 started almost a generation after the end of WW1.

Blame it on HoC for not getting her deal through. Blame it on Labour for refusing to consult with her. Blame it on the people for choosing to Leave in the first place

But will she blame it on the boogie ?

In this case, the worst thing would be a GE that effectively changed nothing.

I can't help but look to the US and think that there are far worse things we could get out of an election than changing nothing. I've said this before, but I think an election right now with the levels of dissillusioned in the two main parties we currently have is a wide open door to disaster. Surely if we have learnt nothing else from the brexit referendum we've learnt that fed up, angry, dissillusioned people who feel nobody in power is representing them make really poor decisions at the ballot box.

{ the EU would extend for a GE.}
Guy Verhofstadt was talking about the fact that none of the UK government or opposition have anything like a plan to 'swing into action' any time soon and that any extension should stop before the EU elections.
I am getting so hacked off by UK politicians STILL spouting stuff that is widely known to be untrue. You can almost feel sympathy for Leave voters still clinging on to unicorns. Actually I don't really, they should apply at least a little thought and not just drool in front of the TV news.