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Brexit

Westminstenders: Stalemate

958 replies

RedToothBrush · 17/01/2019 20:54

After May's Meaningless Vote defeat and Corbyns Pointless Vote for Your Own Party defeat we are well and truly at Stalemate.

May has invited other parties to come and talk to her to find a compromise. Except she has so many red lines all she is asking is for everyone else to compromise whilst she gets exactly what she wants.

Corbyn made a tactical error in not initially speaking to May, so now she gets to say that its Labour who are being difficult and not wanting to work together in the national interest.

Corbyn has in addition put down the red line of saying he won't talk to May until she agrees to drop no deal. Except since no deal is the default until an alternative solution is agreed! Corbyn is expecting May to say that she would revoke if there was no alternative agreed, whilst is isn't really reasonable from a compromise point of view.

They are as bad as each other. Both too stubborn for the country to move forward. Its long been said that they were alike in this respect, but having it put to the test about which is more stubborn has the potential to destory the country in the process.

In addition to this, Leadsom has removed all other Brexit related HoC business from the schedule until after the 29th January. This is a blantant attempt to try and stop backbenchers having the opportunity to table pesky amendments which the government don't like.

The 29th January is due to be the Meaningless Vote II. Given that May has made it clear that in her head 'compromise' means 'do exactly what I want and capitulate' it looks like the Withdrawal Agreement will be represented to parliament to vote on with little change. Perhaps with a few amendments there designed to attract support, though it remains to be seen where this support will come from given the spectulator level of the rejection the HoC gave it. May's Plan is literally to run the clock down and hold a gun of no deal to the head of remain leaning MPs or to scare Brexiteers by suggesting that she might revoke or there might be an extension.

Its beyond farce.

Of course the role of the Speaker becomes paramount.

Technically speaking no bill can be presented to the HoC twice in the same parliament. Its against the rules. So how is May going to get around this, and will the Speaker indeed allow it?

The Speaker may also try and help backbenchers out by allowing amendments and motions to be tabled outside the normal rules. Normally the government alone control the majority of parliamentary time, with the opposition parties being given so many debates depending on whether they are the official opposition and then according to their size. Backbenchers don't tend to get much parliamentary time. However the Speaker's actions last week showed he was willing to be creative and bend the rules to allow backbenchers more influence and power than under normal circumstances because of the way that the Executive was trying to frustrate the house. So not timetabling any further Brexit Business between now and the 29th January seems a sure fire way to have the Government straight on course for another run in with Bercow.

So what next:

Do not forget that whatever happens May has to agree to it, or we go to no deal. Whether that be a 2nd Ref, Revoking, Staying in the Customs Union, Norway + or Any Other Alternative May has to agree to it on some level.

Backbenchers can table amendments all day long to 'guide' or put pressure on May but they may not be able stop her ultimately. Boles, Grieve, Benn and Cooper seem to be the ones to watch.

So May's stubborness is the biggest barrier and issue there is to preventing No Deal.

Corbyn, whilst he might well be very right to avoid getting sucked into May's trap, isn't helping matters with his own stubborness. His priority is party politics and stopping the Labour Party from splitting. Not solving Brexit.

There is not a shread of pragmatism nor thought for the national interest between them. Party before Country.

So we are to go through all of the last week, possibly with another vote of no confidence thrown in for good measure in another 12 days.

Won't that be fun?

OP posts:
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Hazardswans · 18/01/2019 11:46

I'm tired...

To everyone facing medication issues Flowers

We said on the thread last year they'd be problems from January. Bigchoc had to talk me out the tree!

To anyone worrying focus on Bellini's words, prep for 3 days as that buys you time if you can extend it do but 3 days is good. She says that about food but I think the same logic applies to meds.

Oi oh oi...

Best not panic and all that. I'm not panicking....I just have a low grade sense of anxiety Grin

RedToothBrush · 18/01/2019 11:46

Afp news agency @afp
#BREAKING EU publishes plans for 'limited' US trade deal

Top trolling!

OP posts:
PestymcPestFace · 18/01/2019 11:46

So the UK is too short for the backstop?

SusanWalker · 18/01/2019 11:47

Boris didn't really say anything different to what he always says. Similar to quite a lot of brexiteers really.

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 18/01/2019 11:47

Is that Boris doing Bannon's work?

Tanith · 18/01/2019 11:50

I think Question Time was a set-up, intended to scare people out of demanding a People’s Vote.

RedToothBrush · 18/01/2019 11:50

Evening Standard @ standardnews
#Brexit latest: Theresa May was locked in crisis talks with her own Cabinet today amid rising speculation that a general election is on the way

www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-latests-general-election-speculation-grows-as-theresa-may-faces-more-cabinet-feuding-a4042746.html?amp&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter&__twitter_impression=true
Brexit latest: General Election speculation grows as Theresa May faces more Cabinet feuding

Somewhere, George is laughing.

OP posts:
SusanWalker · 18/01/2019 11:50

T M has ruled out a snap election. So I'll expect one shortly.

Tonsilss · 18/01/2019 11:51

Corbyn is against FOM isn't he? I have a strong feeling that he wants a hard Brexit, but wants the Tories to achieve it.

RedToothBrush · 18/01/2019 11:51

So the UK is too short for the backstop?

No the UK is too small to be outside the EU. That's the issue.

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MissMalice · 18/01/2019 11:54

think Question Time was a set-up, intended to scare people out of demanding a People’s Vote.

I don’t. I was keen on one before but not now. There’s no way of knowing the outcome and a huge amount of misunderstanding - especially about what No Deal will mean.

DarlingNikita · 18/01/2019 11:55

Thanks Red. Place mat king.

BiglyBadgers · 18/01/2019 12:04

I wonder what the age demographic is for Question time audiences? We know there is a huge age split between remain/leave so when we look at question time are we simply seeing the middle aged white view?

I really don't know anything about how they sort out the audiences so this is a genuine query. Are you really seeing a representative sample?

1tisILeClerc · 18/01/2019 12:06

{think Question Time was a set-up}
While it is abhorrent to give the stage to extremists, there is value in that eventually the unsustainability of their arguments will catch them out. It is a bit of a risky strategy of course but stifling it simply drives it underground.
With some, the amassing of far right groups on the borders of Germany is a major concern. To stamp them out will be difficult, but the more conservative in Germany will reflect that OK SOME ideas might have traction, but overall it will bugger their usually rather comfortable lifestyles. Once you have rioted and smashed stuff up, what happens next?

LouiseCollins28 · 18/01/2019 12:08

QT audiences are in my opinion nothing like representative of the areas they claim to be representing (i.e. broadcast from). I get that, of course, in London you would have an audience chock full of diverse, socially liberal "Remainers", but to see the same from Wakefield? Doesn't feel right to me.

ChardonnaysPrettySister · 18/01/2019 12:11

A general election will have a limited outcome as far as Brexit is concerned, there isn’t a viable party which is pro Remain.

The split down both main parties is diabolical.

TheElementsSong · 18/01/2019 12:12

One of the last occasions I ever watched Question Time, it was from Wakefield. And like fuck was that audience chock full of diverse, socially liberal Remainers. Absolutely the opposite, in fact.

SusanWalker · 18/01/2019 12:16

I don't know how the BBC select audiences but I get the impression that it's done according to the percentages in that area from the last referendum/election. So they don't reflect current opinions. I suspect they are also quite easy to game by groups with a certain agenda. Tell the researchers you are remain or pro Mays deal when you are not.

SillySallySingsSongs · 18/01/2019 12:18

I wonder what the age demographic is for Question time audiences? We know there is a huge age split between remain/leave so when we look at question time are we simply seeing the middle aged white view?

When my BIL went it was verh much a mixture of age/ethnictiy and leave/remain.

The fact that both leavers and remainers often complain about the audience says to me it is probably pretty balanced.

BiglyBadgers · 18/01/2019 12:25

If we have a PV it seems to me that the remain camps biggest issue is that it is made up of a lot more young people than leave. So even as it pulls ahead in the polls we have a demographic that is less inclined to turn up to votes or to engage with traditional media. So the big risk to remain is that a large proportion of those supporting it just don't get out and put the mark in the box on the day.

The existence of a bunch of hard brexiteers screaming for no brexit on QT is not what worries me about a PV, if they didn't exist we wouldn't need one after all. It's the demographics for remain that make me fret.

BiglyBadgers · 18/01/2019 12:27

Umm...that meant to say screaming for no deal

...or we wouldn't have a problem would we...Blush

BiglyBadgers · 18/01/2019 12:29

The fact that both leavers and remainers often complain about the audience says to me it is probably pretty balanced.

This thought does sometimes cross my mind about the BBC in general. The fact that everyone from all sides seems to think it is against them maybe suggests it's doing a better job of remaining impartial than we give it credit for. After all if it wasn't surely someone would be happy with their coverage. Wink

DGRossetti · 18/01/2019 12:32

I don't know how the BBC select audiences but I get the impression that it's done according to the percentages in that area from the last referendum/election.

I know exactly why the BBC selects the audiences it does, and that's simply to provide spectacle TV. Anything else is an afterthought.

(all in the name of "balance" of course)

2beesornot2beesthatisthehoney · 18/01/2019 12:34

I have been in a QT audience. To get on I had to fill in a questionnaire on my age , sex and political beliefs. As it was during the Brexit ref I was also asked about my view on Brexit.
However I felt at the time the audience was chock full of leavers. That is surprising for a city that ended up pretty remain .
But my answers were taken on trust in that initial questionnaire. I think it would be very easy for an organisation to apply on mass and skew the answers to ensure your organisation view was in the majority on the night.

2beesornot2beesthatisthehoney · 18/01/2019 12:36

Oh and finally caught up butneed to go out