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Brexit

Why didn't we get facts like this in advance?

410 replies

Somewhereovertheroad · 16/01/2019 14:07

HMRC projects additional Brexit red tape will cost UK businesses £6.5 billion/year. NHS estimates cost of satisfying new visa requirements on behalf of staff at £490 million/year.
*
That's nearly £7 billion in annual Brexit costs, or close to the £9 billion we pay as EU members!*

Why wasn't the homework done so we could have known things like this in advance?

assuming it's true

OP posts:
DioneTheDiabolist · 18/01/2019 09:30

Oh yeah and destroy the NI peace process and NHS in the process.

Moussemoose · 18/01/2019 09:52

@Clavinova

Are you proposing a Federal EU? As far as I can tell - the poorest states in the US are still dirt poor, the inequalities still there, even with a federal government

Federalism is about structure and power. Within a federal organisation some states may well be rich and others poor.

Federal is used by Brexit supporters to mean central control and all states being treated the same. If is used to imply uniformity.

This is to totally misunderstand the concept. Federalism means that a country or organisation is structured to give most power at the local level. Decisions can therefore be taken locally allowing for local variation and local control. Therefore in the US power is distributed away from the centre to the individual states.

Moussemoose · 18/01/2019 09:55

But the people of the UK do not remember ever having agreed to it

All the treaties have been high profile. They have been discussed, debated and voted on. Our elected representatives have engaged wi5 internal bodies and parliament has been fully involved.

If people can't remember that really is their own fault. I can remember clearly.

cushioncovers · 18/01/2019 09:58

Because the remain campaign was too complacent

This in a nutshell

1tisILeClerc · 18/01/2019 10:02

{LeClerc, you have a strange world view and you are astonishingly rude.}
Having visited many parts of the world, albeit briefly, I have at least some impressions that will be different to yours.
In the grand scheme of things, the UK is truly not special at all, which is not to say it is no good, but just not that different.
If the UK wants to be a 'world dominator' again it at least has to stop running around chasing it's tail and decide on a direction. Watching a dog chasing it's tail is cute, watching a supposed 'superpower' government do it is beyond pathetic.
The UK was great as it had an Empire 150 years ago, which through mismanagement it squandered, it was also great, but in a slightly different way while being in cooperation with the EU and others, to think that it will emerge again as a world dominator is frankly ridiculous.

{My company produces a widget and a training course that teaches people how to best use the widget. We are going to go on selling our widget and our course to customers in the EU and in other countries further away. We will go on doing this whether we remain or leave. However, I think we will be able to do it better if we leave. Currently everything - visas, tariffs etc - is geared towards selling within the EU - but all the economic growth and technological innovation is happening outside the EU. }
OK, on the basis that your widget is any good, how much money and leverage can you apply to prevent the Chinese copying it?
You need to be in a trade bloc with real muscle to prevent this happening. So that would be USA/Russia/????
Similar arguments if you are trading your widget to USA/Russia, who will be your 'strong, powerful ally'?

SergeantPfeffer · 18/01/2019 10:08

And what about when you want to invent a new widget millyonth? Will you be able recruit the staff with the technical expertise to do this? Will we have the networks in place to support the knowledge exchange needed to advance research and innovation? Will there be government funding in place to replace the EU funding we have previously accessed to drive research? What about patents, how easy will it be to apply for these in other markets?
I work in research and have met very few people who think that brexit will be anything but a disaster for research and innovation. After all, when we brexit who is going to come here to replace the EU workforce? Already the best from India, China etc go to the States, not here. With the pound tanking we are an even less attractive destination and with the drop international graduates we will have less graduates to choose from as well.
Maybe your widgets will benefit short term, but long term there will most likely be profound negative effects on research and innovation in the UK. I predict a lot of it will move to the Far East tbh.

1tisILeClerc · 18/01/2019 10:15

Companies that deal with China need real 'clout'. The likes of BMW can do this, as part of the EU as they are a big company with a lot of 'allies' behind the trade structure. They can afford to shut all UK operations and abandon the UK market completely if they feel it is not profitable.
If you trade within the EU you are in a form of bubble, one where the rules are well defined and laws are upheld. You can then trade with about 60 other countries with the same rules. Trading with anyone once the UK leaves gets a whole lot more difficult as it is not just the tariffs and documentation, but you also lose the legal frameworks too, and powerful international lawyers within the EU to back you up.
If your widget is popular and the Chinese (say) chose to copy it, you will probably lose any further sales in China, as their trading laws protect only the Chinese. If your widget is that good and the Chinese 'copies' are then sold outside China, your product made in the UK is finished.
THIS is the reality behind dropping out of the EU and is obviously far beyond a few immigrants or a blue passport.

lljkk · 18/01/2019 10:16

How will the widget be competitive on world market.
Wages are higher in Britain than >50% of world.
EU stays competitive with hyper efficiencies (like JIT manufacturing model, imposition of common standards for our consumers, frictionless trade).
We chuck JIT, we can't manufacture & deliver the widgets at competitive prices.

millyonth · 18/01/2019 10:21

And what about when you want to invent a new widget millyonth? Will you be able recruit the staff with the technical expertise to do this?
I hope so. If we ever do Leave and stop the free movement of unskilled labour, we will still be able to welcome skilled people from all over the world.

1tisILeClerc · 18/01/2019 10:23

I would love to have stayed in the UK and grown my business but Brexit will kill it. Having been told repeatedly by someone who studies international marketing how companies fail even though it is only a 'snapshot' it is obvious that the UK should stay in the EU.
As in all life, you have to take the rough with the smooth. You have to work to make the rough as smooth as you can, Brexiting isn't it.

SergeantPfeffer · 18/01/2019 10:25

We can welcome them but it doesn’t mean they’ll want to come.

1tisILeClerc · 18/01/2019 10:29

{I hope so. If we ever do Leave and stop the free movement of unskilled labour, we will still be able to welcome skilled people from all over the world.}
Does 'hoping so' include the wages of someone who will spend significant time sorting out the documentation for foreign staff and experts in international trading?
I don't wish you ill in your 'dreams' but at some point reality will kick in.
Where I worked there was a shipping manager who was full time sorting out carnets and all related documents to ship maybe 10 (expensive) items a week. Even then, much of it was to the EU.

1tisILeClerc · 18/01/2019 10:31

Your widgets will need type approval, certification etc for every country you want to sell to.

nuttynutjob · 18/01/2019 10:33

Good luck on your widget/fidget sales once it has been copied by the Chinese.

Who do you think would protect your patent once we are out of the EU?

1tisILeClerc · 18/01/2019 10:35

If you make knitted dolls.
You have to certify the source of the wool. It has to be safety checked for fire and toxicity. If you are trading with an 'ethical' stance, you have to check continuously that your wool supplier isn't sending you wool that fails that category.

1tisILeClerc · 18/01/2019 10:39

On Westminsterenders thread a month or so ago there was a tweet from a guy who sold some goods to China and he had foolishly trusted a Chinese importer to handle distribution. They made a hash of it and it was impossible for him to legally get his investment back, he had to simply write off tens of thousands of Pounds as 'experience'.

user1539506092 · 18/01/2019 10:43

Because there was no factual information on either side

1tisILeClerc · 18/01/2019 10:44

millyonth
I am not 'getting at you', but you and all other entrepreneurs and particularly small businesses will be hammered by leaving, as apart from the normal costs of your activity, tariffs will hit hard, for at least 5 years or more, and you will need at least a member of staff or pay an agency to unravel the increased paperwork, all of which is taken out of your profits.

1tisILeClerc · 18/01/2019 10:47

{Because there was no factual information on either side}
In some respect 'remain' didn't need detailed facts. Remaining means doing tomorrow what you are doing today. It may be boring and bland, but you know what you are getting.
Leaving might have had some glitter stuck on it, but you have to work out where the money for the glitter comes from, there is NEVER a free lunch.

sashh · 18/01/2019 10:48

Currently everything - visas, tariffs etc - is geared towards selling within the EU - but all the economic growth and technological innovation is happening outside the EU.

What is happening that stops you gearing your company up to sell outside the EU?

How do you know you will continue to be able to sell the widget and course in the EU? What if the EU slaps a tax on it?

borntobequiet · 18/01/2019 11:06

The problem with restricting immigration for unskilled labour, and not for skilled labour, is that the native population then has to provide most of the unskilled labour, whereas skills can be imported. Consequently there is little incentive to educate and upskill the native population - why would you, when it can dig holes, pick vegetables, clean toilets? No annoying ever increasing education budget, cheaper doctors/engineers/IT specialists from abroad, and a subliterate population, easy to keep happy with reality shows/video games/celeb gossip.
I can see why it would appeal to some.

1tisILeClerc · 18/01/2019 11:11

{What is happening that stops you gearing your company up to sell outside the EU?}
Nothing of course but you are omitting the fact that at the moment the UK is standing on the shoulders of a giant.
If millyonth were to be making woolen dolls currently, and is buying the wool from the EU, it will have EU certification for toxicity and flammability. Although she will have to show that if she uses processes to actually make the doll that COULD alter the status it can be done relatively easily by a 'process approval' of some sort which certifies that they are not treated with petrol (silly example but representative) so that at minimum extra cost it can retain CE marking.
Leaving will mean that wool sourced from the EU will have a tariff on it, and depending where you sell the dolls it will face sales tariffs and you have to sort out the certifications yourself. All eating into profit.

millyonth · 18/01/2019 11:12

I understand all the concerns about tariffs and JiT and frictionless trade. But I operate in the real world where arrangements are made and people co-operate. . Not in a fictional "apocalyptic shitstorm". Even a no-deal will be a managed no -deal with lots of mini deals happening. If the EU slaps a big tariff on us we will do it to them. But they won't. We buy a lot more from them than they do from us.
In an ideal world both the UK and the EU will continue to grow and prosper. But it would be nice to diverge a little.

Moussemoose · 18/01/2019 11:13

Why can't we diverge while in the EU?

millyonth · 18/01/2019 11:16

Good question. Cameron asked them and the answer was no. You have to have the four freedoms. It's all or nothing.

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