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Brexit

Why didn't we get facts like this in advance?

410 replies

Somewhereovertheroad · 16/01/2019 14:07

HMRC projects additional Brexit red tape will cost UK businesses £6.5 billion/year. NHS estimates cost of satisfying new visa requirements on behalf of staff at £490 million/year.
*
That's nearly £7 billion in annual Brexit costs, or close to the £9 billion we pay as EU members!*

Why wasn't the homework done so we could have known things like this in advance?

assuming it's true

OP posts:
1tisILeClerc · 17/01/2019 23:24

Pleasure's all mine.
Now back to practicalities, which superpower do you think the UK should cosy up to?

millyonth · 18/01/2019 06:51

Which superpowers do independent countries like Japan, Canada and Australia cosy up to?
Leavers like me and Weetabix want the UK to be self-governing like them. Are they slaves to Trump or Putin?

millyonth · 18/01/2019 06:52

It's Germany that's dependent on Putin's massive pipeline.

frumpety · 18/01/2019 07:08

Clavinova I read the link, are you disputing the figures ( I agree they are somewhat speculative due to lack of clarity) or the fact that they have been presented simply as Brexit related ?

I hope that people who we need are not put off coming to this country to work because of the current anti-immigration climate in the UK. We are not their only option.

lonelyplanetmum · 18/01/2019 07:20

Which superpowers do independent countries like Japan, Canada and Australia cosy up to?

A lot! Australia for example has chosen to be a member of the
following organisations many of which have rules and regulations they adhere to.

( I would say the sum total of all that global membership is pretty much akin to membership of the EU trading bloc but I'd be told off for being chippy or something?)

Asian Development Bank (ADB)
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) (dialogue partner)
Association of Southeast Asian Nations Regional Forum (ARF)
Australia Group
Australia-New Zealand-United States Security Treaty (ANZUS)
Bank for International Settlements (BIS)
Colombo Plan (CP)
Commonwealth of Nations
East Asia Summit (EAS)
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD)
• European Broadcasting Union (EBU), Hence their Eurovision participation.
Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)
Group of Twenty Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors (G20)
Informal social partnership (MIKTA)
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD)
International Chamber of Commerce (ICC)
International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)
International Criminal Court (ICCt)
International Criminal Police Organization (Interpol)
International Development Association (IDA)
International Energy Agency (IEA)
International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRCS)
International Finance Corporation (IFC)
International Hydrographic Organization (IHO)
International Labour Organization (ILO)
International Maritime Organization (IMO)
International Mobile Satellite Organization (IMSO)
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
International Olympic Committee (IOC)
International Organization for Migration (IOM)
International Organization for Standardization (ISO)
International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement (ICRM)
International Telecommunication Union (ITU)

▪	<a class="break-all" href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Telecommunications_Satellite_Organization" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">International Telecommunications Satellite Organization</a> (ITSO)
▪	<a class="break-all" href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Trade_Union_Confederation" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">International Trade Union Confederation</a> (ITUC)
▪	<a class="break-all" href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inter-Parliamentary_Union" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Inter-Parliamentary Union</a> (IPU)
▪	<a class="break-all" href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multilateral_Investment_Guarantee_Agency" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency</a> (MIGA)
▪	<a class="break-all" href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-Aligned_Movement" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Non-Aligned Movement</a> (NAM) (guest)
▪	<a class="break-all" href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_Energy_Agency" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Nuclear Energy Agency</a> (NEA)
▪	<a class="break-all" href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_Suppliers_Group" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Nuclear Suppliers Group</a> (NSG)
▪	<a class="break-all" href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_for_Economic_Co-operation_and_Development" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development</a> (OECD)
▪	<a class="break-all" href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_for_the_Prohibition_of_Chemical_Weapons" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons</a> (OPCW)
▪	<a class="break-all" href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_Islands_Forum" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Pacific Islands Forum</a> (PIF)
▪	<a class="break-all" href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Club" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Paris Club</a>
▪	<a class="break-all" href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permanent_Court_of_Arbitration" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Permanent Court of Arbitration</a> (PCA)
▪	<a class="break-all" href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secretariat_of_the_Pacific_Community" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Secretariat of the Pacific Community</a> (SPC)
▪	<a class="break-all" href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Asian_Association_for_Regional_Cooperation" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation</a> (SAARC) (observer)
▪	<a class="break-all" href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Pacific_Regional_Trade_and_Economic_Co-operation_Agreement" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">South Pacific Regional Trade and Economic Co-operation Agreement</a> (Sparteca)
▪	<a class="break-all" href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">United Nations</a> (UN)
▪	<a class="break-all" href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Conference_on_Trade_and_Development" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">United Nations Conference on Trade and Development</a> (UNCTAD)
▪	<a class="break-all" href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Educational,_Scientific,_and_Cultural_Organization" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization</a> (UNESCO)
▪	<a class="break-all" href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_High_Commissioner_for_Refugees" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees</a> (UNHCR)
▪	<a class="break-all" href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Integrated_Mission_in_Timor-Leste" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">United Nations Integrated Mission in Timor-Leste</a> (UNMIT)
▪	<a class="break-all" href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Mission_in_the_Sudan" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">United Nations Mission in the Sudan</a> (UNMIS)
▪	<a class="break-all" href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Relief_and_Works_Agency_for_Palestine_Refugees_in_the_Near_East" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East</a> (UNRWA)
▪	<a class="break-all" href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Truce_Supervision_Organization" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">United Nations Truce Supervision Organization</a> (UNTSO)
▪	<a class="break-all" href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_Postal_Union" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Universal Postal Union</a> (UPU)
▪	<a class="break-all" href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Customs_Organization" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">World Customs Organization</a> (WCO)
▪	<a class="break-all" href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Federation_of_Trade_Unions" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">World Federation of Trade Unions</a> (WFTU)
▪	<a class="break-all" href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Health_Organization" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">World Health Organization</a> (WHO)
▪	<a class="break-all" href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Intellectual_Property_Organization" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">World Intellectual Property Organization</a> (WIPO)
▪	<a class="break-all" href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Meteorological_Organization" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">World Meteorological Organization</a> (WMO)
▪	<a class="break-all" href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Tourism_Organization" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">World Tourism Organization</a> (UNWTO)
▪	<a class="break-all" href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Trade_Organization" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">World Trade Organization</a> (WTO)
▪	<a class="break-all" href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Veterans_Federation" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">World Veterans Federation</a>
▪	<a class="break-all" href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zangger_Committee" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Zangger Committee</a> (ZC)
bellinisurge · 18/01/2019 07:22

Can't wait to be an independent member of organisations with even less say on how they operate. That'll really put food on the table in the dark early days of No Deal. Thank good I don't need to worry anymore HmmConfused

lonelyplanetmum · 18/01/2019 07:25

Except Bellini we don't like membership of global international organisations. You must remember this - we are unpicking and relinquishing membership of them all, one by one, starting with the most lucrative.

millyonth · 18/01/2019 07:31

Lonely planet. That's an interesting list. It shows how an independent nation can co-operate with other countries of the world without needing to be under the control of the EU.

DippyAvocado · 18/01/2019 07:43

Canada is in NAFTA, the second largest trading bloc in the world. Japan and Australia have just entered into the Trans Pacific Partnership - the third largest trading bloc in the world (would have overtaken NAFTA if Trump hadn't decided to pull out).

The TPP came into existence only about two weeks ago. With the exception of superpowers like the US and China, other countries are actively creating greater integration of trade as they know it makes economic sense.

The UK is the only country trying to go in the opposite direction.

lonelyplanetmum · 18/01/2019 07:44

Ah ha but we do belong to some of those organisations too. With all of them come rules of membership. What you may call control.

In fact as part of EU membership we just agreed to sensible baseline regs, many of which we drafted, mostly on food and environment and some workers rights. We had a leading dominant seat at the table, and a right of veto too.

What I understand from many of your fellow Leavers is they want to relinquish membership of as many international organisations as possible. To truly stand alone.

It's clearly just another part of the fragmented multi version Leave vision where there is no agreed plan or end destination. What I would like is an agreed Leave list either from the PM or even the ERG saying which international organisations we want to keep and which we want to ditch. Just a quick yes/ no/ maybe would do for now. I like a plan you see. I want to know where we are headed. It clearly doesn't start and end with the EU.

Logically the EU can not be the only international organisation that half the country ( or less) object to.

YeOldeTrout · 18/01/2019 07:56

Lonelyplanetmum, did you actually type in all those links with ]][[, did you write a script to do it (mind boggles)

jasjas1973 · 18/01/2019 08:04

Anyone see Question Time last night in Derby? big cheers to leave on no deal, even after the panel Professor told them that this would risk RR and Toyota.
Like some on here, oblivious to what is staring them in the face, News channels stating there are already shortages of painkillers and antidepressants.. when will you people wake up???

It left me thinking that all these (mainly) fat middle aged and entitled men need to get exactly what they wish for, as RR and Toyota up sticks.

Aside, i just had to change channels as Abbott tried to explain Labours 6 tests, cringe worthy embarrassing! unbelievable that she is still shadow Home Sec.

lonelyplanetmum · 18/01/2019 08:05

Nope I just copied and pasted. It's quite easy to google which trading and other groups other countries belong to.

It's something I really do want to know though. I like plans and charts! I simply do not believe ( some) Leave politicians and voters will say job done we are out of the EU. Yippeee. This is because the objections in principle that they repeat endlessly apply to other trade and global bodies too.

We belong to so many other global organisations, I want to know which are targets for the next ditching and which if any are not. What next on our isolationist agenda, for Trump it's the UN?

jasjas1973 · 18/01/2019 08:12

Oh and Japan gives away sovereign territory to the USA in return for security & defence.
www.mofa.go.jp/region/n-america/us/q&a/ref/1.html

A very cosy relationship don't you think?

millyonth · 18/01/2019 08:25

What I understand from many of your fellow Leavers is they want to relinquish membership of as many international organisations as possible. To truly stand alone.
That is simply not true.
Most Leavers would like to have remained in the old common market. It's not trading blocks we are scared of or international co-operation, it's the enforced ideology of the EU which insists all members must comply with so many quite radical principles, like freedom of movement, even when they are unpopular and problematic for the individual country's ctizens.

lonelyplanetmum · 18/01/2019 08:35

EU which insists all members must comply with so many quite radical principles, like freedom of movement,

The EU didn't insist we agreed to it and didn't even apply the rules as other member states did.

But why is EU citizens arriving a problem but the legacies of the commonwealth so eg India, Pakistan, Caribbean etc not an issue?

even when they are unpopular and problematic for the individual country's ctizens.

But you see EU migration isn't problematic it confers a significant net benefit.

Why didn't we get facts like this in advance?
millyonth · 18/01/2019 08:50

The EU didn't insist we agreed to it
This is the crux of the problem I think. In theory we agreed to FoM. It was agreed. But the people of the UK do not remember ever having agreed to it and now they do not have any possible way of unagreeing to it - without leaving the EU. Cameron told the EU it was a problem but they could not do anything for him . In the EU the four freedoms are sacrosanct. It has to be like that. That is why we cannot truly be self-governing within the EU.

I agree that EU migration confers a significant net benefit to employers. (I am one!) But it has caused chaos and economic harm to some communities so it is therefore unacceptable. (Immigrants from commonweath countries are completely different. They come to stay and settle. They are not a mobile source of cheap labour that can move from country to country benefiting employers but undercutting the local population.)

lonelyplanetmum · 18/01/2019 09:02

But it has caused chaos and economic harm to some communities so it is therefore unacceptable.

It is clear EU migration confers a net benefit to the economy as a whole. So you are balancing that against Brexit.

Brexit has and will continue to confer economic and other harm to many, many individuals, employers, employees and communities even the NHS. Why is that acceptable?

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTIPx0lI6pb-3Tn-3D6uNJNyKcCd-A8uPMxViagyJAR9T87ZmnSdAEPCzp5ljlNYoUNdxJiJqQdBm7b/pubhtml

millyonth · 18/01/2019 09:07

I don't believe Brexit will cause economic harm.
I believe it will cause a revival of innovation and industry.
I'm not alone in this (although it seems like it on the MN Brexit boards.)

1tisILeClerc · 18/01/2019 09:09

{It's Germany that's dependent on Putin's massive pipeline.}
Of course Germany would prefer to have infinite reserves of oil and gas under it's soil but it doesn't. They would prefer as an alternative for it to come from a neighbouring EU country, but it is found in Russia so at TRADE level, they are 'partners'. Simplistic 'one liners' about subjects like this show that you have no clue how the world actually works. There are massive trade dealings in a whole range of subjects which many would deem unsavoury, like the UK making armaments for the middle East to use to make their neighbours into refugees (the ones that don't die horribly).

The Night porter (?) that was on telly a few years back fictionalised the arms trade, and once you get over lusting after the lead character, the storyline will not be very far from the horrible truths.
Japan, Canada and Australia are big countries in their own right, and although the populations of Australia and Canada may not be huge, they have the bargaining chip of mineral wealth.
Despite the delusions of grandeur the UK is a pissy little island that is losing the plot. It can't feed itself and has mostly used the mineral wealth so HAS to trade in a significant fashion.
Ethically the West should refuse to take any oil or gas from much of the Middle East, but it is needed so deals are done.

1tisILeClerc · 18/01/2019 09:14

{I don't believe Brexit will cause economic harm.
I believe it will cause a revival of innovation and industry.
I'm not alone in this (although it seems like it on the MN Brexit boards.)}

The economic harm has already started and the UK is leaving in 70 days.
Would you care to tell us what the hell the UK is going to do to get innovation and industry actually producing profits on 30 March?
Belief will not put food on the table.

millyonth · 18/01/2019 09:15

the UK is a pissy little island whereas Japan is a big country in its own right

LeClerc, you have a strange world view and you are astonishingly rude.

lonelyplanetmum · 18/01/2019 09:23

I don't believe Brexit will cause economic harm.

But the signs of economic harm are already there. That's why I posted the link to the job losses document.

Others do share this feeling or belief on MN but economists don't. Even the government's own initially suppressed impact assessments said on any scenario there will be severe economic harm.

Why didn't we get facts like this in advance?
Why didn't we get facts like this in advance?
Why didn't we get facts like this in advance?
DioneTheDiabolist · 18/01/2019 09:28

Weetabix, Ireland never voted to leave the EU. It's refusal to ratify it's Constitution held up the Lisbon Treaty for a year. It has no veto. The no vote at the time was largely a protest vote against its government. The EU waited until it voted for the Lisbon Treaty before enacting it. Hardly the actions of the big bully bogeyman EU that you have been told to fear and are willing to sacrifice real jobs and Britain's international influence for.

millyonth · 18/01/2019 09:30

Would you care to tell us what the hell the UK is going to do to get innovation and industry actually producing profits
I can't tell you what everyone is going to do, but I can tell you what I am going to do. My company produces a widget and a training course that teaches people how to best use the widget. We are going to go on selling our widget and our course to customers in the EU and in other countries further away. We will go on doing this whether we remain or leave. However, I think we will be able to do it better if we leave. Currently everything - visas, tariffs etc - is geared towards selling within the EU - but all the economic growth and technological innovation is happening outside the EU.

I want a happy and prosperous UK as I am sure you do. We just have different opinions on how to achieve it.

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