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Brexit

Why didn't we get facts like this in advance?

410 replies

Somewhereovertheroad · 16/01/2019 14:07

HMRC projects additional Brexit red tape will cost UK businesses £6.5 billion/year. NHS estimates cost of satisfying new visa requirements on behalf of staff at £490 million/year.
*
That's nearly £7 billion in annual Brexit costs, or close to the £9 billion we pay as EU members!*

Why wasn't the homework done so we could have known things like this in advance?

assuming it's true

OP posts:
Clavinova · 17/01/2019 22:04

98% = hyperbole

Oh, so your reasons, facts or details were just embellishments.

1tisILeClerc · 17/01/2019 22:06

{EU countries are not self-governing. Policies such as freedom of movement or the single currency in the Eurozone cannot be voted out however problematic they may be for an individual country.}
All the countries in the EU are sovereign and enact their own laws.
The laws may be the same as other EU members, and many are, like the laws between England and Scotland.
I am bothered by the possibility that bees might sting me, should we ban all bees? Your attempts at arguments are hardly any better formed and simply show you have no idea how the EU interacts with SOVEREIGN countries.
If the EU were to ever go 'hard right' the UK would not escape whether in or out.
The 'yellow jackets' that have appeared in the UK are not French and they are not protesting about fuel prices.
I believe most terrorist attacks in the UK are perpetrated by UK citizens.

DippyAvocado · 17/01/2019 22:08

I don't agree with the idea of holding hostage - the UK can leave, but the options for leaving aren't great because it makes more economic sense in this interdependent world to be part of the EU. Trading blocs are how we operate now. It's possible to leave, but of course it isn't easy, especially after 45 years of integration.

However, I do think the EU has flexed its muscles and showed just how powerful it is in relation to the UK. A bitter pill for some to swallow.

Probably the only country in a strong enough position to leave successfully would be Germany, but it wouldn't be easy for them either even if they wanted to.

Moussemoose · 17/01/2019 22:10

Good grief - there are posts on here littered with lies and nonsense. Any detailed post I make can be referenced and proven. If I make a mistake I apologise. I always respond to points.

I make one brief post using hyperbole to make a point and it is jumped on.

Why not try engaging with the points about federalism.
Why not engage with the point that someone is more 'worried' about a hypothetical, potential issue with the EU at some random future point in time than the financial disinter that is no deal heading straight towards us.
Why not engage with the historical point that running away from Europe always fails?

Too difficult?

Moussemoose · 17/01/2019 22:14

And I wasn't that far wrong anyway.

88% thought it most likely that real GDP would be negatively impacted in the next 5 years, if the UK left the EU and the single market. 4% thought GDP would be positively impacted over the same time period and the 7% thought GDP would be broadly unaffected

A MORI poll of economists.

1tisILeClerc · 17/01/2019 22:14

A question for all those who are hating the EU:
When the UK is 'out' who is going to be the UK's 'best buddy' because there is not a cat in hell's chance that the UK will be a superpower like it was around 100 years ago. It is ONLY Scotland, Wales NI and England now with depleted mineral resources.
Are you going to be the USA's footstool, or an alliance with Russia, or somewhere convenient to dump stuff from China?

Moussemoose · 17/01/2019 22:16

12 Nobel Laureates and over 175 UK based economists have signed this statement

So not 98% but how many Economy Laureates are still alive?

Weetabixandshreddies · 17/01/2019 22:18

Moussemoose

I've been engaging for days but really what is the point? You want my reasons, I give them but they aren't good enough for you. Well, ok. I don't agree with yours.

There we are. I voted leave, you voted remain so we cancelled each other out.

1tisILeClerc · 17/01/2019 22:19

The point where the EU seriously begins to break up will be bordering on WW3 so worrying about a few hard right MPs will be the least of the problems.
Pick your battles.

DippyAvocado · 17/01/2019 22:20

Using Mumford and his "economists for free trade" to back up any arguments is really scraping the barrel. They are known throughout the world of economics as eccentric outliers and their post-Brexit forecast has been discredit by just about every other economist. It relies on wild assumptions such as the idea that we will drop all tariffs on imports and everyone else will willingly decide to reciprocate.

Funnily enough, the Brexiteers haven't been publicising the Minford plan to completely wind down all UK farming and manufacturing, in case it doesn't go down too well with the public.

DippyAvocado · 17/01/2019 22:22

Sorry, Minford. Not sure Mumford & Sons have published many Brexit forecasts.

Weetabixandshreddies · 17/01/2019 22:22

1tisILeClerc

Or all of the Commonwealth countries? Or any number of the other countries in the world.

Interesting use of the word "you" though Are you going to be if you aren't British (because surely you would have said "we") why are you so worried about us?

DippyAvocado · 17/01/2019 22:26

A critique of Minford and his dubious methodology.

ZenNudist · 17/01/2019 22:28

Lol at 'blame remain campaign' aka as project fear. These ideas were out there before the referendum. I read the guardian and it was all there plain as day. It was dismissed as scare mongering or biased. Michael Gove actually said " I think people have had enough of experts".

The remain campaign was not complacent. They just thought the facts speak for themselves.

The only way out of this is the people's vote. And even that is a shitty solution. This one is going to run and run. I massively resent the mess DC made of this country. Its my future and my childrens future severely compromised.

Clavinova · 17/01/2019 22:32

Too difficult?

No - I haven't got the time. Are you proposing a Federal EU? As far as I can tell - the poorest states in the US are still dirt poor, the inequalities still there, even with a federal government.

1tisILeClerc · 17/01/2019 22:33

{Interesting use of the word "you" though Are you going to be if you aren't British (because surely you would have said "we") why are you so worried about us?}
Not got much of a memory have you?

Weetabixandshreddies · 17/01/2019 22:35

1tisILeClerc

Actually I have. But even for someone who doesn't live in the UK I would have thought you would still consider yourself to be British. In which case it's weird to use "you" rather than "we" or "us".

Somewhereovertheroad · 17/01/2019 22:35

@Clavinova Thank you for your link. It's clear the 490 million is not accurate nor indeed a fact.

I do think though to say anyone would know this is unfair. I don't think the average Joe on the street has any idea of the costs involved in running the NHS or how these would change with Brexit.

OP posts:
1tisILeClerc · 17/01/2019 22:37

The remain campaign failed because it thought that for instance if you tell the workers in Sunderland that their jobs are at risk if the UK leaves, and why it will happen, that they voted leave anyway!
A bit like telling your child it will burn it's hand on a flame, they have to do it to prove it. Children don't do it twice.
Remain thought that saying that life in the UK will be worse if it leaves might have caused some thought about why that may be.

1tisILeClerc · 17/01/2019 22:40

Weetabixandshreddies
I think it's weird that some, like you, refuse to use your brain to work out why some things might happen which will not be good for practically anyone in Europe.
By the way, which country are you wanting to cosy up to?
Mrs May would like to know so she can send Foxy to do some deals.

Clavinova · 17/01/2019 22:40

And I wasn't that far wrong anyway

You said 98% of economists in the country - only 17% out of 3,818 economists replied to the MORI survey.

Clavinova · 17/01/2019 22:44

Somewhereovertheroad
Thank you.
I do think though to say anyone would know this is unfair
You are right - I was frustrated by reply/lack of replies.

Poisoningpigeons · 17/01/2019 22:50

only 17% out of 3,818 economists replied to the MORI survey.

And some of them might have foreign-sounding names and we all know what that means, don’t we?

1tisILeClerc · 17/01/2019 23:09

Weetabixandshreddies
If you are representative of what 'British' is to become I don't want to be part of it.

Weetabixandshreddies · 17/01/2019 23:22

1tisILeClerc

How sweet of you xx

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