Westminstenders: Plan B is Plan A again.

[RedToothBrush]

The voting starts around 7pm and is expected to finish up between 8pm and 8.20pm.

May is expected to lose. The question is by how much.

We are then expecting an immediate motion of no confidence in the government by Labour to be put forward.

May is expected to make a speech to calm the markets and then go to Brussels for an utterly pointless visit.

The Labour No Confidence is expected tomorrow afternoon after PMQs. Its expected to fail.

We move no closer to a resolution and ever closer to no deal.

Half the Cabinet want to go into cross party talks. Half the Cabinet don't.

May is apparently insistent that Plan B is Plan A. Which is what you would expect her to tell the house to comply with Grieve IV. Which again is bollocks.

But Bercow could yet refuse to indulge it.

If Plan B is Plan A again, then what's Plan C?

Crisis with a Capital C.

The stalemate grows.

But ...those workmen this morning ...shouting "hear, hear, hear" to TM voicing her determination about delivering Brexit on the radio. They apparently really, really don't want to be part of a trading bloc at least not the EU one.

But how would they know they are part of anything ? If you had stopped, and asked them just one question where they could show they had the faintest clue what they were on about they'd have crumbled. And you'd have got the Farage soundbite mix tape in response.

I'm not saying they can't have their opinions. But in this case they haven't. They've got somebody elses opinion, and are acting like a football crowd.

Maybe this is another clue - we need to listen to understand Leavers feelings rather than listen in order to offer corrections.

Oh FFS. The vast majority of labour, lib dem and SDP voting remainers (ie most remain voters) are extremely sensitive to the reason why some working class people voted against their economic interests. We've been bending over backwards to understand them.

But maybe you can't understand it, because there is nothing to understand: Brexit is an article of faith held by people who do not have the foggiest idea about international trade and who don't like foreigners very much.

And I would add that any compromise solution, such as Norway, would be largely supported by remainers but almost certainly rejected out of hand by brexiters.

@Mistigri that was meant to say, not
Mistigirl

^

People treat immigrants as if they have to be either all saints or all evil.

Sorry but this is just ridiculous.

It's perfectly possible to be extremely critical of the behaviour of some immigrant groups (especially with regard to women's rights) but to have pro immigrant opinions.

I think many British expats in France and Spain are a good example of "how not to be a good immigrant" - don't learn the language, cluster in groups rather than mixing, work in the black economy - but that doesn't mean I don't support their right to be there.

But maybe you can't understand it, because there is nothing to understand: Brexit is an article of faith held by people who do not have the foggiest idea about international trade and who don't like foreigners very much.

So why did they vote for it, why are they so passionate about it - what do they think it will do for them? What is their real problem?

Mistigri, perhaps we can start there instead of dividing into camps and entrenching more and more. I agree with you on many British expats btw!

Fireplace, you're the one telling people who've been fighting Brexit for 3 years that they're not doing it well enough. We will have to agree to disagree on that point.

biglybadgers

It was only after the absolute fist Cromwell made of running the country that parliamentarians invited Charles II to be King; if historical precedents are sought.

So 11 years of no-deal, and protector May (or Corbyn) and Brexiteers will be begging the King to return from exile. Although they'd probably not realise it, since their grasp of history is ... patchy ... at best.

It's become an identity. There's a short circuit in their mind saying brexit= English.

Just being pissed off with an authority Malice, it really helps to have someone to blame

Not all leavers but many

So why did they vote for it, why are they so passionate about it - what do they think it will do for them? What is their real problem?

Their real problem is not one that is amenable to change via discussions about Brexit.

I honestly think there’s more to it than that. I’m not saying their problems are rational or based in fact. In fact I fully believe many are down to the hatred printed in newspapers and spouted on TV unchallenged by presenters.

But if they believe that’s their problem, we have to meet them where they are. You cannot shame people into changing their minds. You cannot insult people into changing their minds.

Mistigri, perhaps we can start there instead of dividing into camps and entrenching more and more. I agree with you on many British expats btw!

OK then explain to me why you don't want people from the EU who - if you want to play the very dangerous game of "good immigrant bad immigrant" - fall overwhelmingly into the first camp.

Why is 'good immigration, bad immigration' - if we can get it out of the personal mode - dangerous?

Leavers are not all extreme right-wing authoritarians any more than remainers are all extremely rich many of whom don't even live here. And why have we gone back to immigration anyway on this morning after the night before? The EU question is about far more.

@Mistigri you're something else. I did not say they're not doing it well enough. I never said that and it's very disingenuous of you to say I did.

I called out those posters who posted just before me that said we should just let the shit happen because leavers deserve it or they're tired of it. I've campaigned for 3 years. Beyond bloody Mumsnet, and if you can't see how rude your comment to me was then you need to at least read my post and the posts they were responding to properly.

So why did they vote for it, why are they so passionate about it - what do they think it will do for them? What is their real problem?

I think it's a tribal thing. The feel part of a tribe. Maybe for the first time in a long time.

There's an awful lot happened in the past few decades. Most of it poorly - if at all understood. Brexit hasn't happened in isolation - there have been other things going on in society.

This thread is regularly littered with let everyone feel the pain, it's the only way they'll learn. Often, I might add, from people not living in the UK

Their real problem is not one that is amenable to change via discussions about Brexit.

I agree. The EU is not the problem and therefore Brexit is the solution. So what are the problems, and what might the solutions be. That is the only way out of this mess.

I agree completely DGR. That’s definitely a factor. Feeling like you belong is a huge thing.

{Genuine question - maybe fantasyland - if we crash out and it goes horribly wrong, is there a chance of rejoining?}

The EU have always said that they don't want the UK to leave and that should it leave there is a probability of a 'fast track' rejoin. This is made easier as UK companies and laws are currently working to the same standards, so a huge amount of legislation won't need rewriting.
Had the UK been acting like grown ups who had simply made a 'mistake' and now realise that leaving isn't a good plan then things would be a LOT easier. Unfortunately there has been a continual barrage of insults both verbal and practical, D Davies only having 4 meetings in a year, LATE for every deadline even though the UK called the timing and so on. Patience must be wearing very thin now as the UK is costing EU companies billions, which will be impacting on their welfare and infrastructure.

But if they believe that’s their problem, we have to meet them where they are. You cannot shame people into changing their minds. You cannot insult people into changing their minds.

Do you genuinely believe that minds can be changed at this point?

Most (not all) pro remain votes were pragmatic and that remains the case. A Norway solution would I think get wide, if grudging, agreement from the majority of remainers for whom EU membership is not an article of faith ie those who understand we are in a sticky position and just want to retain as many of the benefits as possible while doing as little damage as possible.

It's harder to characterise leave voters, but those who are still engaging with (rather than avoiding) the issue are almost always not pragmatic at all. They are not interested in compromise, because the faith-based Brexit model doesn't permit it, and because any compromise solution has been knowingly categorised (by the media and government) as "not Brexit".

I put on the last thread why an elderly gentleman being interviewed voted brexit. He replied ' people of this country did not fight 2 world wars to preserve our sovereignty to give it all up in 2024 when the EU becomes a State.' That post did not get one comment. I thought it a good reason to vote for brexit if the future of the EU is to become a State. Maybe they will call themselves EUropa?
We all know that EU would like to become a state. Can you fault that man in his voting brexit when he believes in sovereignty? No you cannot. He does not look beyond because at the time of voting and even now that is the most important thing to him.
And that is how everyone voted on the premise that was the most important thing to them including remainers who last time I looked are not immune to the human condition of feeling.!

I think there will have to be constitutional reform of some form after Brexit

BUT

Those talking about it have ideas which would destroy the fabric of democracy because they don't understand what democracy is. Or they don't understand the unintended consequences of the change they proposed and that it won't solve the problem in the way they want.

Which is kind of a problem.

A lack of vision and foresight.

Dominic Cummings is a problem in this sense. He is a visionary who does not understand how unusual that is. He was given a problem to solve and he certainly did that. He thought other visionaries would take up the baton of what to do next. Instead he got all the idiots who were the original problem coming up with a solution. He is a desparately naive man whose ego and desire to win, override the wisdom of doing so, in the absence of there being new leaders ready and waiting with a plan. He seems to have been very much a loner.

The point here is something of a generation one. We need a new generation to come through with geniunely new and visionary ideas. Instead we have a number of cults coming through but no real individual leaders or people who are rather more like carbon copies of their predessors and have only done well because they mirror and copy the older generation and we have Corbyn who is of the wrong generation and is seen by many as a champion of younger generations when you really just need someone of their own generation. There isn't really anyone new inspiring who is filling the 'sane' box.

I'm just watching the 20th Century icons 'leaders' programme and its not lost on me that such leaders seem to be forged in a climate of adversity and they came on a wave of a need for new hope. Many of them have a 'foil' to bounce off too, an 'enemy' or 'force'.

Can you do that in a time of comfort?

I think we have a period of hardship or adversity of some description coming. There is no way around it. There are echoes around the world of political unrest and economic turmoil which haven't really peaked. I am not sure it will peak this year; but I do think it will be this year or next when the Great Crisis Hit.

I think a lot of the Leave success feeds on the some thing as the French Revolution. Its very simplistic and built on a dislike of 'the experts' or 'the middle class looking down on the workers'. Its real and I think genuine. It was often easier to encourage immigration rather than train 'difficult' people.

DH commented yesterday about how his business has no training for junior staff, and the only way he got it was by baptism of fire in crisis and changing jobs when he faced obstruction or resistance to change. And that really isn't going to work for so many, which just leads to a complete wasting of talent of a generation. I've seen quite a bit about millenials being the 'burn out' generation, and I think thats also true. And thats a handicap to bring through new blood and new visionaries.

His current job is basically to take a sledgehammer to old ways of thinking and this is extremely difficult because of entrenched individuals who are using politics to stop him. But he is part of a team where there is a visionary, a sledgehammer to pave the way for that vision, there are doers who apply the practicalities and plan that the visionary and the sledgehammer have created. He comments on how unique it is to have that in a company.

That said, whilst he has a team, there isn't a programme to actively bring through new people and back up those trying to build something new. And that puts pressure on people and also creates 'burn out' in those who are good.

A climate of burnout limits the already small pool of good people who could lead.

I know I'm rambling a lot here as its a stream of thoughts I'm just trying to verbalise as I have them. But it does come back to this sense of having to have a period of pain. And some of us will be a 'lost generation'.