Westminstenders: Plan B is Plan A again.

[RedToothBrush]

The voting starts around 7pm and is expected to finish up between 8pm and 8.20pm.

May is expected to lose. The question is by how much.

We are then expecting an immediate motion of no confidence in the government by Labour to be put forward.

May is expected to make a speech to calm the markets and then go to Brussels for an utterly pointless visit.

The Labour No Confidence is expected tomorrow afternoon after PMQs. Its expected to fail.

We move no closer to a resolution and ever closer to no deal.

Half the Cabinet want to go into cross party talks. Half the Cabinet don't.

May is apparently insistent that Plan B is Plan A. Which is what you would expect her to tell the house to comply with Grieve IV. Which again is bollocks.

But Bercow could yet refuse to indulge it.

If Plan B is Plan A again, then what's Plan C?

Crisis with a Capital C.

The stalemate grows.

Jesus HateIsNotGood. Uncalled for. Completely awful.

hateisnot what the hell is the matter with you?

Ignore it.

Not going to rise to it.

Where’s the remain campaign that actually engages Leavers?

You can't engage Leavers. Campaigns are to keep stirring them up as the Leave voters were often never-voters. It's the ones who didn't vote who need to be engaged now.

Is it? Why? I've read so much here over the past 2 years saying how posters would let people that opposed their vote starve, that they deserve everything that's coming to them. Many posters have likened a Leave vote to Nazism, likened TM to Hitler.

So, really, my post is not that bad. I don't agree with how Parliament voted but I can live with it and appreciate how they reached that decision. I don't see the Apocalypse that Red is painting.

I dread a People's Vote. We have nothing in place to stop the lies and corruption again.

Most people still haven't engaged properly with the facts or even done basic research. Apathy/denial is astonishingly high. The tabloids and social media are toxic. I don't see how we get out of this.

Exactlt Swedish, and thats the problem.

Social media encourages combative posts and doesn't engage the politically uninterested.

Its a hiding to nothing trying to argue with the entrenched. If anything it just turns off others watching it.

It has to be a softly softly.

I don't think very committed remainers would necessarily get that tbh.

Yawn.

I'm off to bed.

Long day ahead tomorrow.

They're not up on the BBC yet but here's a link to tomorrow's front pages...

www.scoopnest.com/tag/tomorrowspaperstoday/

I can't help but think the best campaign to engage the unengaged would be to appeal to their apathy. If they are bored of brexit now - imagine what they will feel like when it is still rumbling on in ten years time. When it is still taking up time on the news - when there are still protests and counterprotests and all parliament are doing are arguing endlessly...

Only way to stop that is to stop brexit.

A really blunt campaign that warns people that if they don;t take the time to vote - and vote remain - then they will be hearing of nothing but brexit for years if not decades to come.

Obviously run in conjunction with a positive 'this is how the EU makes our country stronger - this is why membership makes sense - oh look, we already have the most bespoke most specialest membership there is going. Our terms are even more special than French and German terms. Aren't we the billy big balls of the EU? Let's not give that up!' kind of message.

Nn Red. Thanks for all your input and efforts tonight

Cripes. Those front pages

Agree with pp. If there is to be a peoples vote it should be WA or Stay in EU.

End of story. Any other option (which means three) might require Proportional Rep. Something UK is not used to apart from certain things like MEP votes and NI etc.

Keep it simple and on message. No Deal is not and never was an option anyway for anyone either within or without the HOC.

I can reach the pretzels

Patronising much? Specialest..

A really blunt campaign that warns people

Positive messages in political campaigns generally work more effectively

In recent years we've seen an uptick in 'fear' campaigns which have been successfully but that generally breaks the rule.

The country's mood is pretty depressed. If you want to engage people and you want to get them get on board you are much better giving people a vision of what they are voting for. Hope.

Labours 2017 campaign was all about this.

The problem is selling Europe to a people who aren't cultural attached to it.

The converse remains much easier to sell and the messages are already deeply ingrained as mantras to be repeated.

Remain has failed to control the narrative since before the ref. Its still fighting on unfamiliar turf.

People don't get it. Because they don't understand what was sold and how it was sold at the last ref. Remain will never win until it does.

I think this was TM's plan all along. She's a remainer and playing the long game. Fuck it up so it's impossible and get the whole thing called off. Job done

Cock up AND conspiracy?!

The problem is selling Europe to a people who aren't cultural attached to it.

The converse remains much easier to sell and the messages are already deeply ingrained as mantras to be repeated.

Such true words. I listened on the radio tonight to a reporter who was taking vox pops at a pub quiz in Wigan. There was one table of remainers in the whole place. The rest wanted out, no deal, and were still parroting the same meaningless soundbites as two years ago. It's like an obsessive cult. TM must rue the day "No Deal is better than a bad deal" made its way from her lips fed by Nick Timothy.

On the anti-Brexit FB groups I'm on, people are pleased with the outcome and see it as the end of Brexit, but I can't see a way out. I think the most likely scenario now is a no-deal crash-out. That won't even make people understand what they've lost because they'll just blame the EU. The long-term effects will be felt for decades.

I have a glimmer of hope that we'll get an extension and some form of soft Brexit will be hammered out by a cross-party group, but I think it's a long-shot and doesn't deal with the issue of the far-right.

What a farce.

We - and May - are here because the Leave campaign disgracefully promised different things to all the different groups to (narrowly) win the 2016 referendum

If they'd actually focused on a single type of Brexit, whether EFTA or even No Deal, at least we'd have had 2 years to negotiate and / or plan for it

Instead, it meant that May was left with several red lines, if she didn't want to anger one or more influential Leave groupings

Also, unless Britain is prepared to become an international pariah - with whom few countries would trade - the GFA needs to be upheld in letter and spirit
i.e. no NI border

The Venn diagram of all those UK red lines - especially stopping FOM - plus no border could only ever result in this WA

The Brexiter unicorn that the EU would be agree to destroy their Single Market and / or break WTO rules was never going to happen

So now May is finally being pushed to drop some red lines and reach out to Labour & the SNP

Surely even she must realise her WA is dead now

• unless of course she drops a different red line and calls a very risky Remain vs WA PV

With her nasty record plus Corbyn's fixation on using Brexit as a means to power, she may be forced to a PV, simply because he won't cooperate to develop a softer Brexit for the PD.^

I hope the PLP and knowledge that Labour voters are 70% Remainers pushes him towards cooperation, so that MPs can do their job, instead of pushing it back to the poor bloody voters again

Revoke immediately will always be my first preference but I'm not as down on PV as most here. Remain would likely scrape through imo. The cats out the bag in terms of far right whatever happens. Tbh I don't think there is a rise in xenophobia/racism it's just more people think it's acceptable to hold those views publically now. At least when its openly said it can be openly dealt with. As for Russia? That's one of the reasons to be part of a wider herd ie in the EU not some shitty isolated country.

I would have gone Norway+++ as compromise but i actually think that's quite unlikely at this point given the feedback that we're an abusive husband!

The brexiters had their chance and they totally fucked it up and let all the leave voters down. The anti EU camp is to divided as a group to make anything coherent happen. It's time that the beLeavers woke up to who betrayed them and it was their own all along.

Quite a good summary in the NY Times here (with diagrams!) about some of the possible options now. www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/01/15/world/europe/may-brexit-vote-fail.html

I don't see any point in a GE. None at all. Its just more stalemate

The only point I could see would be if it produced a result where absolutely no party whichever way the arithmetic worked, could form a government, and confidence and supply with the LibDems/DUP/ a rag tag of the minor parties didn't make it feasible either. Then they might just realise that the only way forward was a Government of National Unity. I hope too that we would have voted out some of the dead wood in Parliament.

Many posters have likened a Leave vote to Nazism, likened TM to Hitler.

I don't think many have, an odd one or two maybe. We have said that the climate is becoming like that of Nazi Germany, with xenophobia rife, treating people as 'other' and blaming them for all manner of ills.

Agree with Peregrina above. Any poster on these threads who decides a personal attack on Red is in any way called for is...strange.

Farming Today featuring serious people with serious worries. Also Owen Paterson being delusional.
www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m00020zy
It seems useless to talk to politicians. I hope business is talking to unions and vice versa aiming to put real pressure on both main parties.

I am wary of a PV. I’m not convinced minds have changed all that much and am worried that people are fed up of it all and won’t bother to vote. I’d prefer revoke. The Govt clearly can’t deliver Brexit (and I don’t believe any Govt could as there are so many differing points of view as to what Brexi should be), therefore it shouldn’t. I know that will cause mass upset amongst leavers/the far right, but to me is the better option.

Agree with Born - that attacking new poster was very er strange.

I have also been pondering what RTB said There also has to be some economic pain.

People have to realise what the EU do and how it benefitted them.

In July 2016 I would not have agreed with this. I do now.

I find it interesting to look at how Leaver and Remain views have shifted in substance, if at all.

The polls give some indication of the numbers who have changed their stance in principle. So there are some indications of where we are with the 48:52 now. However polls tell us nothing about any shifts in the subtlety of the people's vision.

My observation from people I know is that the Leavers have (if anything) become more extreme and militant. The Leavers I know are still full of the same rhetoric...the EU owe us due the war, they need us, no deal is best, we're being invaded by Muslims, we can cope eating rationed raw potatoes delivered by the TA, we coped before etc etc .

For this reason I don't want a PV even though I marched for it, and would still do so. Many Leavers have radicalised into no dealers.

As for Remainers have they radicalised? How have their views changed? I can only speak for myself. I'm a pretty radical extreme Remainer who sees all the benefits of the trading bloc, of the EU, but not only the economic benefits-the cultural, social, environmental and insurance policy advantages of working and being supported by a bigger community. BUT my views have shifted more than the Leavers' views have, at least those I know. I'm more worn down by their intransigence and in many cases their refusal or failure to research and understand.

Early on the talk of hubris made me research the format of Greek tragedy. I warned of hubris traditionally leading to nemesis and ultimately catharsis.

However despite being proud of coming up with this analogy two years ago I thought avoiding the nemesis was feasible; I railed against it. Now I'm afraid my view has shifted. I see nemesis as the only way to make people realise the benefits of EU membership.

If other Remainers are like me, the Leavers really have won. My original spirit is broken and theirs isn't, iyswim.