Westminstenders: Plan B is Plan A again.

[RedToothBrush]

The voting starts around 7pm and is expected to finish up between 8pm and 8.20pm.

May is expected to lose. The question is by how much.

We are then expecting an immediate motion of no confidence in the government by Labour to be put forward.

May is expected to make a speech to calm the markets and then go to Brussels for an utterly pointless visit.

The Labour No Confidence is expected tomorrow afternoon after PMQs. Its expected to fail.

We move no closer to a resolution and ever closer to no deal.

Half the Cabinet want to go into cross party talks. Half the Cabinet don't.

May is apparently insistent that Plan B is Plan A. Which is what you would expect her to tell the house to comply with Grieve IV. Which again is bollocks.

But Bercow could yet refuse to indulge it.

If Plan B is Plan A again, then what's Plan C?

Crisis with a Capital C.

The stalemate grows.

Oh sorry!

IrishBorder 😂

Harry Cole @MrHarryCole
Cabinet minister says No10 deserve some praise for damage limitation strategy; by calling off vote last time when it was heading this way they got ERG to shoot bolt, and now they can’t come for her despite whacking great defeat. Only if they go full jihad and vote with Labour.

If the vote had gone ahead as originally scheduled, we'd be in the midst of a Tory Leadership Election right now...

Don't worry, whisky These threads whizz along so quickly we often repeat things

Well yes, things could be even worse
We could be waiting to hear which of Leadsome / Bojo / JRM / Gove was going to lead us firmly into Brexit

I will, at this point, support more or less ANYTHING (within reason) that is not No Deal.

However, a PV is my next least favoured option.

I would prefer to have the WA to the PV.

I don't see any point in a GE. None at all. Its just more stalemate

An extension may or may not work, but at least we could continue prep for no deal.

My only thought for a PV is if it did get a shot, then parliament gets to vote on what the options are on the paper - and we know there is a parliamentary majority to in theory block no deal. (The status quo argument above isn't right).

I quite honestly do not care, as long as it avoids no deal.

I think this was TM's plan all along. She's a remainer and playing the long game. Fuck it up so it's impossible and get the whole thing called off. Job done.

Just got back from the Parliament Square rally to find not only a new thread, but already 25 pages long. I'll never get to bed tonight. Anyway, PMK.

Matlis is currently NAILING David Davis on newsnight.

Long over due.

I doubt EU will agree to an extension now. They have been led a merry dance by UK right up to the wire. So unless there is a GE or PV I doubt it will happen now that WA has been defeated, so the issue of critical legislation to implement it is no longer required.

There will be no backtracking on the Backstop. The UK cannot be trusted to uphold the GFA and that is despicable. Purely because the DUP says so. If DUP were not in Confidence and Supply agreement, I doubt the backstop would ever have been an issue.

I realise that Leavers might think differently.

cat what 8% or 16% drop in GDP means

What does it mean in simple terms? If there is 8% less GDP does that mean 8% less revenue for the state? So what's 8% less of Jobseeker's Allowance? What's 8% less of the weekly NHS budget? What's 8% less of the average industrial wage? That fucking NHS bus got people to vote leave, I personally know two.

cat what 8% or 16% drop in GDP means

It means a uk great depression.

It means 'really really really fucked'.

The good news is that house prices will drop, its just that no one will still be able to afford them apart from rich landlords who will be able to fleece people living in shitholes and there will be lots more homeless people anyway. We might even get shanty towns appearing.

There will be lots of suicides. And life expectency will plummet.

Very very much enjoying watching my local FB explode as our MP voted against the WA today. Or against brexit as they think. Some people are trying to politely point out that whilst they don't agree with his brexit stance he didn't vote against brexit. They won't have it. I'm staying quiet in the vague hope it help lose him a decent chunk of votes if we do go to GE.

I’m beginning to think there’s no way out of this without some kind of painful drawn out correction.

I don’t think anything positive will happen until considerably more transparency and accountable is required of politicians. Alan Sugar made a great point about having to back up claims they make in business. Why isn’t it the same for politicians?

More anonymous adverts are running for Leave already. They knew this would happen and they’ve been prepared. Where’s the remain campaign that actually engages Leavers? There isn’t one. And there’s this bloody yellow jacket (not to be confused with Yellow Jacket Lady) movement which from my social media is being picked up by the right AND the left.

We cannot get out of this mess without addressing the real issue which is nothing to do with Brexit at all.

As of tonight a people's vote is actually to the benefit of May (though it always has been - but maybe now she can see it).

If we assume - following the amendments parliament has put in to avoid no deal that they will not allow no deal on the ballot the only thing left to ask is W.A vs Remain.

The W.A may have been comprehensively defeated - but it is a form of brexit and it is carrying out the will of the 2016 referendum. May is firm in her belief that this is the only brexit in existence - that indeed this IS brexit. She has said plan b is plan a - her deal. She has said she'll reach out and talk to other people, but she's not moving on any of her red lines. May seems to genuinely believe in this 'deal'. It is what she wants even if nobody else wants it. And she is a bloody difficult woman and determined to get what she wants - because she believes she is right.

If she says OK - plan b is people's vote -remain vs my deal ... I think that would pass through parliament. And if people voted for her W.A - parliament would pass it next time around. How could they not?
If the people vote for her W.A then that is a stunning victory for her over all the mps out to stab her in the back/ politely disagree with her.
If the people vote remains - well, she tried. She did her best. She may even resign at that point.

If the govt agrees to enact the outcome of the referendum - then no deal can't happen even inadvertently.

And it will put the headbangers in a really difficult position - which would delight her no end. Having trashed the W.A only to be told this was the only brexit on offer - would they swallow their words and back her - or just be forced to shut up?

It may actually end up healing the divisions in the tory party. A people's vote for the W.A means they all have to agree to follow that and get to work out what they want during the transition period. A people's vote for remain would shut the Eurosceptic wing up - just like Cameron first intended.

I understand why everyone is so afraid of another vote - but it really is her get out of jail free card (and I've been saying that since before she got the W.A - that all she needed was any deal at all and then she could hold a ref to get a mandate for it.)

Surely even Bercow wouldn't disagree with her putting the W.A back to the house, unchanged, if she had put it to the people and they had voted for it?

I doubt EU will agree to an extension now

I think they might, if only to buy more prepping time for a no deal.

I don't think a GE can possibly solve the problem. The EU aren't going to budge so Labour's nonsense idea of renegotiation is fucked before it even begins. And (in my personal opinion) any GE would be more focussed on what is already going on in the UK. Very few people cast their vote on a single issue. I actually don't know anyone irl who would (and I live in a swing constituency).

I also think a PV is an awful idea. It would be divisive, distract everyone from other serious issues and drag the whole mess on for another year.

And, tbh, after tonight even I (as a generally political person) am feeling totally disillusioned with Westminster, even more than I normally am. The idea that the government can lose the vote by such a huge margin, and on such a key issue, yet win a confidence vote is appalling. Either those MPs have confidence in TM's government and thus should have supported the WA as the best possible option, or they don't have confidence in her government so shouldn't support her tomorrow. To vote against her today and with her tomorrow is so utterly hypocritical they should be ashamed.

Sorry for the rant, I just needed to get it off my chest!

I’m beginning to think there’s no way out of this without some kind of painful drawn out correction.

There isn't.

We are going to get a rise in the far right in any scenario. Thats a balloon which will take time to deflate. And people ARE going to get hurt in the process. It is inevitable.

There also has to be some economic pain.

People have to realise what the EU do and how it benefitted them.

If there is a PV, the Russkies might swoop in again. LOL. Sorry couldn't help it, sorry Mr. Putin.

I truly dread a PV. As a EU national, I can see how it could well lead to weeks of hostility and possibly aggression - verbal and physical - and a really nasty environment to work and live in.
Don't know what other option would get us or of this mess though.

I just don’t know what it will take even if people get hurt and the economy dives. The far right and those duped by them will continue to blame everyone else.

@HateIsNotGood that's a fucking awful comment.