Westminstenders: Plan B is Plan A again.

[RedToothBrush]

The voting starts around 7pm and is expected to finish up between 8pm and 8.20pm.

May is expected to lose. The question is by how much.

We are then expecting an immediate motion of no confidence in the government by Labour to be put forward.

May is expected to make a speech to calm the markets and then go to Brussels for an utterly pointless visit.

The Labour No Confidence is expected tomorrow afternoon after PMQs. Its expected to fail.

We move no closer to a resolution and ever closer to no deal.

Half the Cabinet want to go into cross party talks. Half the Cabinet don't.

May is apparently insistent that Plan B is Plan A. Which is what you would expect her to tell the house to comply with Grieve IV. Which again is bollocks.

But Bercow could yet refuse to indulge it.

If Plan B is Plan A again, then what's Plan C?

Crisis with a Capital C.

The stalemate grows.

I certainly wouldn't rely on a PV to get us out of brexit, but if we just look at what is likely to happen rather than would we would like to happen a PV seems like a very possible event now if the no confidence motion does not get passed.

Once the no confidence is done then the pressure on Corbyn to stick to the agreement made at conference will be huge. He will have had his go at an election and got nowhere so unless he ignores the conference he has to go for a PV.

Perhaps even more importantly it is the only thing I can see getting a majority in the commons right now. It is something that can be voted for by multiple sides while still maintaining their view that they are right about brexit itself.

Plus if MPs want to avoid no deal it is one of the only reasons the EU have stated they will accept for an extension.

Things against a PV happening, are the possibility that Corbyn might decide to continue to just ignore his entire party membership and refuse to support a PV and May will just sit tight and let the clock tick. There is also the issue, as others have said, that nobody really knows what to put on the paper.

I think once the no confidence vote is done tomorrow we'll know which way Jez is going to swing and whether a PV is on or not. Of course even if he refuses one could happen anyway, but it'll be harder to vote through parliament. Not impossible, but less likely.

complete lack of faith in Westminster's ability to fix this
If getting a deal is too hard
people will vote for no deal

please please please do not let there be a PV
we have a representative democracy
Our MPs are paid shit loads of money
they should articulate their purpose

Henry Zeffman @ hzeffman
Chris Grayling, transport secretary, rules out a customs union. "Keeping the customs union effectively means staying in the single market and keeping free movement," he tells Sky News

Sam Lowe @ sammarclowe
No excuses anymore. Everyone has had enough time to learn the basics. This is nonsense, and either he knows it and is lying, or doesn’t know it and shouldn’t be in his position.

And this is the other real issue.

MPs (and journalists) not knowing their shit to the point where its just embarrassing and dangerous.

@Ta1kinPeace do you think no deal would be an option on the PV ballot paper, though? I honestly don't think Parliament would agree to that.

buttery probably a staff member acknowledging the result - i wouldn't read too much into that - plenty of similar calls to points global are also being made.

I agree.

The more time goes on, the more I fear a PV is a bad idea.

A REALLY bad idea.

Girlsblouse may might need political pressure or political cover of an HoC vote and / or PV,
but legally she doesn't need it to Revoke:

The ECJ said Revoke need only be done according to our constitutional requirements
and although we need the HoC to agree a treaty
constitutionally, to revoke a decision to leave a treaty, only requires the PM to act

Literally all she needs to do to revoke is to write a letter to the EU Commission

However, very unlikely politically she would do this on her own
and maybe not even if the HoC voted that she should.

If she ever called a PV with Revoke on it - only as a last resort to break the HoC logjam -
then imo she'd feel obliged to accept the voters' decision whatever it was - but that could indeed be Brexit instead

omarlarge
do you think no deal would be an option on the PV ballot paper, though? I honestly don't think Parliament would agree to that.
As Lord Snooty just said on the ITV news, no deal is the default.

Any referendum has to have the status quo on it
No Deal is the Status Quo as of today.

What can she get from sturgeon?

Back in 1975, as an 18-year-old, I felt that the HoC should have decided whether to accept Wilson's renegotiated Common Market membership,

rather than ask me to decide in a Referendum
but they didn't
So I voted Remain

Unfortunately, Harold Wilson set a precedent for politicians to weasel out of making really tough decisions about the future of the country,

@NicolaSturgeon
Spoke to PM earlier - not obvious that she has any real idea what to do next. Also not at all clear she is open to any fundamental change of thinking in her proposed cross party talks. The bare minimum she must do now is seek extension of Article 50 to stop the clock.

@Ta1kinPeace. But status quo is Remain until 29th March?

Can I proudly say I’ve never been in favour of another referendum? Because of what everyone said above. And I think attitudes have been getting harder and more swivel-eyed as time has gone on.

There's no way May will talk to JC. Kier Starmer really not happy. A spokesman for May said May will reach out to 'sensible 'people. When asked if this would include JC the question wasn't answered. She will start with her own party and then others but definately not JC. Only thing left for JC is multiple votes of no confidence to wear out her loyal followers.

I’ve never been a fan of PV because the Prime Minister of the Uk putting no-deal on a ballot will undermine the GFA to the point of destroying it. (Then again, the Irish nat inside me thinks maybe it’s the way to get to United Ireland without any more shots being fired... but it’s high risk, and unlike Tory Brexiteers I’m not a selfish twat and actually want the UK to be safe and prosperous too.)

I think a PV probably is a bad idea. Possibly not as bad as a GE right now, but still pretty shit. However, I find it hard to believe our MPs are suddenly going to have a collective moment of clarity and do their jobs. Even if they did I just don't think there is time and I don't believe revoke would ever happen without another referendum.

As far as I can see the only likely outcomes right now are dropping out with no deal or a PV, which may or may not result in no deal.

We can sit and say how bad an idea it is all we want but I just can't see any other options right now, so what I think about it on a personal level is neither here nor there.

omarlarge
But status quo is Remain until 29th March?
and no deal, catastrophic Brexit at 11 pm

Jim Pickard @PickardJE
Breaking: Business leaders asked Hammond on tonight’s conference call if Article 50 could be extended:

He said EU won’t consider it unless and until gov has clear plan - “we have to reach out to MPs in Commons first” - then get EU to agree & only then ask for more time if needed

Since the HoC voted down the WA so heavily, May is the only one who would want it on our imaginary PV

That might have been the only way to get her to agree to a PV: get her ugly baby on it
but after such a defeat, at least we have removed the possibility of a PV on WA vs No Deal

We could theoretically have an STV ref, Revoke vs WA vs No Deal
but it looks far more likely it would have to be Revoke vs No Deal

I agree it's very risky
Only a last resort if the HoC and May simply cannot agree on anything else
Let's hope they can, first
i.e. do their bloody jobs and make decisions

Eek just read some daily mail comments. If there's a PV I think they'd vote Brexit still! How worrying.

General Boles @GeneralBoles
[Cross-party talks]

Labour - We would like some unicorns
SNP - We also would like unicorns + Indy Ref 2
Lib Dems - banging table PEOPLE'S VOTE PEOPLE'S VOTE PEOPLE'S VOTE
DUP - NO COMPROMISE ON ANYTHING EVER
Greens - Would anyone like a hemp tote bag?

I’m glad everyone’s coming round to the fact that PV is a bad idea, however, Labour MPs seem to be supporting it nonetheless.

I don’t see it on the cards yet though.

If PV is ultimately the only way to prevent a no-deal, at the last minute, then it’s obviously preferable. But I hope that MP’s calling for PV are keeping their eyes on the prize (revoke or at least looong delay) rather than getting distracted by PV.
General election would be less harmful for NI (especially as DUP might well lose another seat or two) so I’d rather that was tried first, notwithstanding that it could result in another stalemate. (And that personally I might have to spoil my vote )

Said that ages ago whisky