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Brexit

Westminstenders: Plan B is Plan A again.

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 15/01/2019 14:55

The voting starts around 7pm and is expected to finish up between 8pm and 8.20pm.

May is expected to lose. The question is by how much.

We are then expecting an immediate motion of no confidence in the government by Labour to be put forward.

May is expected to make a speech to calm the markets and then go to Brussels for an utterly pointless visit.

The Labour No Confidence is expected tomorrow afternoon after PMQs. Its expected to fail.

We move no closer to a resolution and ever closer to no deal.

Half the Cabinet want to go into cross party talks. Half the Cabinet don't.

May is apparently insistent that Plan B is Plan A. Which is what you would expect her to tell the house to comply with Grieve IV. Which again is bollocks.

But Bercow could yet refuse to indulge it.

If Plan B is Plan A again, then what's Plan C?

Crisis with a Capital C.

The stalemate grows.

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OlennasWimple · 15/01/2019 21:33

Ok folks, I like the side shoots of discussion on these threads very much, but the thought of bedding Bercow and Boris getting his rocks off with a new girlfriend is making me decidedly queasy Envy

Please don't go there!!

RedToothBrush · 15/01/2019 21:34

Some logicking it out. This is rough first attempt argument that needs pulling apart, but hopefully it can get some thinking going and you can maybe come up some alternative outcomes or thoughts to it.

May realised she needed Labour support to get the WA over the line. So chief whip Julian Smith took a lot of time trying to persuade potential Labour rebels. Which he today got a lot of stick for as Tory MPs said they hadn't seen the whip all week.

But when it can to the vote, May got THREE Labour MPs, plus one former Lab, one former LD and the independent NI MP.

So when we start to talk about a compromise solution on cross party terms, May has NO POWER. NONE. She has no cards in her hand. Corbyn is now holding far more power.

Labour are in the position, if May is serious about a compromise, that they can pretty much set the rules. Setting out any rules or red lines is laughable.

And the ERG will not buy it. They will go nuts.

May knows it.

There is probably a cross party consensus there to be found

BUT

Is Corbyn's aim and game to solve Brexit? Or is his priority more party political?

If he plays the latter game too hard, we might have a problem and miss the chance to stop no deal. It depends which way he leans and just how much he personally wants Brexit.

Would May actively destroy her party to prevent no deal? Does she have any choice? Or is it now inevitable anyway?

May making any deal is problematic for the Tories. It will be a shit deal, as EU membership IS the best option and the EUs own integrity and future lies in ensuring that.

Thus any deal risks fuelling a rise in fascism with those who are currently Tory and have bought into the tory lie that no deal is better than a bad deal.

If May revokes A50, as we've been told a lot she risks fueling a rise in fascism. As the will of the people has been ignored. It would totally destroy the Conservatives but Labour voters would be happy.

If May goes with No Deal, the harsh realities of it, coupled with the inevitable blame game risks fuelling a rise in fascism. It also risks a resurgent far left.

If May goes with somehow getting her WA through by emergency measures in an unparliamentary fashion she risks a rise in fascism because the deep state screwed over the people.

If May goes to a 2nd referendum she risks further dividing the country and risks a rise in fascism and the far left.

All roads lead to the same place or thereabouts because of the language and lead May herself led. All seen to suggest that a Tory split will HAVE to happen and a big political realignment IS on the cards. So let's dismiss the idea wanting to destroy the Cons at least for now.

The big issue for Corbyn then, perhaps isn't an agreement. It's managing his own party divisions.

If a realignment does occur and there is some sort of cross party consensus, this doesn't necessarily suit Corbyn's agenda.

You would expect a realignment to pull moderate tories and moderate Lab types together.

We know there has been something stirring on about a new party for some time. It's possible.

If Corbyn fails to back a softer cross party agreement option and to lead it, he loses control of the centre part of the party. Possibly forever.

HOWEVER

Corbyn has resisted this continously. We know if he is seen to back May he loses all credibility. All Brexits will still be shit. And it has to be said it seems undesirable for the Labour Party to do that. The polling suggests a possible LD resurgence if Lab lead a cross party agreement with the Tories alone.

His situation is perhaps more manageable than May's but in reality if he wants to preserve the party and pursue a far left agenda then he too has more limited options that it would seem though he now has the power.

If Corbyn Wants Brexit a PV or no deal are his best options for the left of the LP from a strategic POV. But there are certain dangers with it. Thus it doesn't really work. Would he be blamed for no deal, if he could just frame May as impossible?

If he wants to remain then is a PV wise? Nope. That leaves just one alternative revoke. But he loses a certain section of his party with that.

And that would depend on May going for it.

I'm afraid looking at it from Corbyn's pov, being obstructive as long as possible looks a good bet. And how his own party don't notice him doing it, whilst they are busy blaming May.

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Mrsr8 · 15/01/2019 21:34

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BollocksToBrexit · 15/01/2019 21:35

May looked truly beaten when she first got to her feet after the vote. I know she’s awful, particularly wrt immigration, but I did have a twinge of empathy for her.

I didn't think she looked beaten. I thought she looked furious in a 'how dare you disobey me' kind of way. Arrogant indignation.

Mrsr8 · 15/01/2019 21:38

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Ta1kinPeace · 15/01/2019 21:38

RTB
Your clarity amazes and impresses me
sadly it also depresses me

Tusk still has it IMHO

Mrsr8 · 15/01/2019 21:39

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Moussemoose · 15/01/2019 21:40

Brexshit has turned me into a foul mouthed haridan

Well at least there are some positives to Brexit then.

Mrsr8 · 15/01/2019 21:40

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OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 15/01/2019 21:41

Ian Dunt
@IanDunt
The solution does not lie with the Labour leadership, so stop searching for it there. They'll fight it all the way. It lies with MPs. They have to force the party leaders into a People's Vote

thecatfromjapan · 15/01/2019 21:44

Hello all. Thanks for the new thread, Red.
Too tired to really think now BUT I wonder if the decision may be taken out of Corbyn (and even May's) hands, with Parliament manoeuvring to get PV on cards?

Agree, Corbyn will, I think, go for obstruction.

And, while I think a lot of the PLP despair, along with s good swathe of the Party, those he needs to keep him in situ will interpret it as integrity.

God knows how, but they will.

And yes, I agree that there is a massive risk of fascism now.

FFS that really should be s wake up call - and at least have politicians and media stop peddling appeasing lies to the electorate.

But no.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 15/01/2019 21:44

I am drinking a mandarin napoleon. While I can still pick it up from france in quantities of more than 1l at a time.

TheElementsSong · 15/01/2019 21:44

Good summary RTB - I just feel drained. While I feel pleasure at the MayBot's defeat, tonight's result is not a victory, at least for those who want to avoid No Deal. What happens next, that's the question.

thecatfromjapan · 15/01/2019 21:45

The numbers in Parliament for a PV are very high.

The question is how it might be made an actuality. 🤷‍♀️

thecatfromjapan · 15/01/2019 21:47

Maybe the way is some bill ruling out no deal, insisting May would have to revoke a50 if it camevto no deal,

(But would that pass? Possibly not.)

Followed by a bill urging May to call a referendum and ask to extend a50.

BigChocFrenzy · 15/01/2019 21:47

I do not forgive her for calling me and millions like me, "Citizens of Nowhere"😡^
I do not forgive her for a "hostile environment" for immigrants 😡^^
^
Mrsr8^ has it:
May can go to fuck and take her smelly fucking Brexit with her to Cameron's palace shed^

BigChocFrenzy · 15/01/2019 21:49

Mrsr8 We all think you're lovely & nice
It's fine to tell May and the batshit Brexiters to fuck off in painful and possibly anatomically impossible ways

Ta1kinPeace · 15/01/2019 21:50

I live in a very poor area in the south central UK
most of you know where but I do not re post too often

a PV would result in a higher leave vote among the old
and apathy non voting from the young
DO NOT rely on PV to stop Brexit

ThereWillBeAdequateFood · 15/01/2019 21:51

I’ve done dry January 10 years in a row. 2019 has been a complete failure, bloody Brexit, shitting May, cocking Corbyn and as for Boris fucking Johnson there are no words.

RedToothBrush · 15/01/2019 21:51

Talking it's just about identifying goals and priorities.

Where do they line up and where do they differ?

I think Corbyn's position is easier to thrash out than the 'centrist' one. The problem the centre has is a split between a PV, revoke and Norway. They are focused on Brexit and a solution to Brexit. Everything else is a side show.

Corbyn's priority has always struck me as far more party political and not really arsed about Brexit. Its just something that's happening and how can he best use it to his advantage.

May was in that position and that was her mistake, to persue a party political approach.

That's what frightens me. Does Corbyn have either the interest, inclination or sense of duty in the national interest to focus on the problem? I've not one seen it from him on Brexit. He's actively avoided it. His focus has been austerity. And sure austerity is a huge problem and it's linked to Brexit but unless you resolve Brexit you can't lresolve austerity.

Or will he simply do the dangerous thing of making it about his party?

Corbyn is a creature of habit. He's stubborn and he doesn’t listen. It's very very like May in that regard.

Right now we need pragmatists not idealogues. Guess what we got.

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OhLookHeKickedTheBall · 15/01/2019 21:51

I'm on the gin. Definitely needed tonight.
DH and I are currently discussing turnips, just in case.

Mrsr8 · 15/01/2019 21:52

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Icantreachthepretzels · 15/01/2019 21:52

It's taken me this long to catch up. I was out on the streets with Leeds 4 Europe tonight - rallying. A good number of people took leaflets from us (quite a few went out of their way to pick one up) and we got lots of horn beeping in support (including a white van man who wound down his window to yell 'yes YES!' at us).

Then I got spoken to by heart fm. I panicked, my voice went squeaky and I didn't really say anything of any use, despite the fact that I know LOADS because of these threads. Oh well - I don't listen to the radio and I didn't give them my name Blush

Buteo · 15/01/2019 21:52

When you can use fuck as a verb, adverb and noun in the same sentence then you’ll be channelling Gordon Ramsey in a good way.

Puzzledandpissedoff · 15/01/2019 21:52

The day after the referendum I said that they should set up a cross-party commission to develop options for Brexit

I said the same, while realising it wouldn't happen because that would need statesmen and women rather than just politicians

And we don't appear to have any Sad