Westminstenders: What The Hell Happens Next?!

[RedToothBrush]

John Bercow has just spent over at an hour dealing with a Points of Order, in which he has argued that he is defending the soverignty of the House of Commons and that is his duty, not to simply to be a cheerleader for the executive.

Taking back control seems to have rather upset ERG Brexiteers.

As Jess Phillips astutely pointed out:
"People only care about procedures, and protecting and conserving the procedures, when they don't like the outcome of the thing that is about to happen and never when it is going in their favour."

And given what we have seen the Executive do over the last few months in terms of trying to use procedure for its own political gain, this is quite a fair point.

There are however certain constitutional questions this is all raising. And we have a very real constitutional crisis here.

Bercow has ruled that he CAN allow an amendment (because the previous vote had prevented only a motion and a debate) put forward by Grieve to go to a vote.

This amendment would - if it is passed by the house - require May to report to the house within 3 days if the WA fails to pass next week.

This would be a significant victory, if it passed because at present the position is where May can delay reporting back to the house until it start to get to the point where politically the opposition can't influence things, and a 'meaningful vote' will in practice be more like a gun to the head by the Executive, rather than the House of Commons acting in a sovereign manner and being free to make its own decisions rather than be forced into a corner by Parliamentary Procedure and the politicking of Parliamentary Procedure to undermine the independence of the HoC.

Allowing more time for the opposition to hold the government to account, does not necessarily change anything. It just means the executive can not just run down the clock in the way it perhaps has been intending.

The HoC could of course, vote against the amendment.

The WA is to come to the HoC next week.

And we have no idea what the hell is going to happen next.

A hard border between Scotland and England will might be preferable to a No-Deal, Far Right, Disaster capitalist, bonfire of regulations UK. We might be trying to keep English refugees out - except we won't because we've said we want and would welcome more immigration

Having said that, I'd have much prefered Scottish Independence with rUK still in the EU and Scotland in EFTA/an accession state - even if that would have delayed independence by 20 years (although would like it sooner as my dad who also used to be a committed unionist wants to see Scottish independence before he dies )

Times lead.

violet good question. Less likely i imagine but I don't know. Perhaps to break a deadlock the EU may agree but sensible MPs might kick off at no deal option on PV. The ideal PV is WA or revoke.

amp.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/11/mps-attack-ministers-over-delay-to-tax-havens-public-registers?CMP=share_btn_tw&__twitter_impression=true
MPs attack ministers over delay to tax havens' public registers
British overseas territories win reprieve after threatening legal action or secession

The government has been accused of defying parliament by delaying plans to require British tax havens such as the British Virgin Islands to bring in public registers that reveal the true identity of owners of companies sheltering assets.

Foreign Office ministers have caved in after a rebellion in the British overseas territories, including threats to take the government to court or even to secede from the UK. The British-administered tax shelters have always been seen as a blight on the Conservative claim to be fighting the multibillion-pound corruption industry.

The Foreign Office told the overseas territories that they did not need to introduce compulsory public registers until 2023 – three years after the date MPs had thought they had set by law in a fractious debate last May.

Sam Coates Times Retweeted Henry Zeffman@hzeffman

Jim Fitzpatrick, Labour MP for Poplar and Limehouse, tells MPs he is "not far away" from voting for May's deal on Tuesday.
Tells them to face up to the choice between May's deal and no-deal,
criticises his own party's 6 tests ("never meant to be met") < yup >
and says UK must move on

Rentoul: From the Brexity bunch to hardline outsiders: A guide to the Tory cabinet factions

Good analysis, plus odds on the several contenders to be next leader

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/tory-factions-brexit-explained-conservative-party-remain-leave-theresa-may-a8723816.html?

DC will be at boarding school several hundred miles away. And the school has no Brexit plan - oh joy. No idea what to do for the best. Bring her home early, in which case she might not get back after the school holiday, in an important school year. Or what?

BBC Politics predicting May will lose the WA vote by 100+

Remember extension also means EU elections and the rumour is May has recalled her MEPs to talk to them...

Are you worried about the school running out of food ?
In an important school year, maybe best to leave her there as normal unless / until the school advise otherwise
Brexit might even be delayed or cancelled

Corbyn loyalists rallying around Brexit ?

Abbot was always a Remainer .... all hands to the pumps

Tom Newton Dunn@tnewtondunn

Diane Abbott boasts about her fervent Euroscepticism in the Commons:
"I have an immaculate record of voting against all measures of further EU integration", and includes Maastricht.
Was she a closet Brexit voter too?

Yes, I don't believe they're making any preparations. And imagine the amount of food they'd have to stockpile to keep all those boarders fed during the summer term. I'm also not confident that transport will be running, and it will be impossible for me to get to her by car (a 2 day drive, loads of petrol). The parents of the overseas boarders probably don't have a clue that this is going on.

This is interesting / surprising - the effect of Brexit on private schools. From the TES in December:
Brexit is not curbing enrollment of European students at UK independent schools, according to senior figures in the sector.

As MPs debated a proposed deal for the UK to withdraw from the EU, education experts said they had seen no evidence of a drop off in interest in British schools.

“I talk to all the international schools in the UK and I can honestly say at no point have we had any conversations about Brexit having an impact on enrollment,” said Richard Parker head of the International School of London (ISL).

“In fact, the event that had the biggest effect on enrollment in the past few years was the drop in oil prices.”

Managing director of advisory firm Gabbitas Education, Vanessa Miner, agreed, saying the drop in the value of the pound could even make UK schools more attractive.

“About 75 per cent of our clients are international, but actually the vast majority of those don’t come from mainland Europe. So, we really don’t see this as being an issue for us at all,” she told a conference.

“And actually, for the schools that we speak to, they’re not seeing much of an impact from their point of view either.”

Instead, she warned that the biggest threat for private schools would be if Labour came to power, advising heads to have a “plan B”.

Having said that, I see that other people disagree, and are v worried about the impact of Brexit.

Good general piece by Jonathan Freedland, I thought this was a good point:

Which leaves only one lifeboat: a public vote. The case for a second referendum suffered a blow this week, at least among the 1.3 million who watched James Graham’s Brexit drama on Channel 4. It was a reminder of just how dispiriting and sour an affair the 2016 campaign was. No one could watch that and want to relive the experience. And because Britain still lacks any equivalent to the US’s Mueller investigation, we haven’t got to the bottom of either the methods or funding of the leave campaign – including its use of social media, the focus of the Channel 4 film. We can hardly be confident that the same tricks won’t be used again

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/11/anti-brexit-mps-no-deal-norway-second-referendum

Increasingly exasperated comments & analysis from the continent:

Fabian Zuleegg@FabianZuleeg* (European Policy Centre, Brussels)

Ex-Brexit-Minister: David Davis erhebt Vorwürfe gegen Deutschland und die EU
(link: http://spon.de/afoIc) @SPIEGELONLINE

Davis blaming Germany for Brexit mess.
Always easier to blame others than to accept that Brexit comes with real costs & hard choices

Shame the Greens' batshit TRA policies rule them out of my vote

Caroline Lucas is one of the most thoughtful & sensible politicians on Brexit:

www.carolinelucas.com/latest/think-anew-act-anew

Shocking this hasn't already been done:

Jo Maugham QC@JolyonMaugham

Former shadow Northern Ireland minister asks elections watchdog to investigate DUP Brexit dark money | openDemocracy

That's a very good speech, BigChoc.

It has so much in it that should be the message going forwards.

As a Labour Party member, I despair that this isn't the message being delivered, with one voice, by Labour.

I would say that I worry she overlooks the metropolitan,particularly the London, poor. I know I bang on like rusty bell on this subject but I really worry at how they get overlooked.

So many of the children I come Across live in multi-occupant dwellings, they are at high risk of school exclusion and being groomed into gangs. That is their narrative. And it seems to be invisible. People just don't see them.

That's a small thing, though.

Lucas' narrative is very good: reaching out, talking about change, talking about beginning a narrative of understanding and communication (rather than pretending to speak 'in the name of the people'), and ... the sheer joy of hearing someone speak positively about FOM and immigration!!!

It really highlights how very depressing the 'official' Labour narrative is. ☹️. (Lammy is not part of the official Labour narrative).

I'd say she also speaks as though she believes a conversation is possible. It isn't patronising.

I'd say that that is markedly different from other discourses of the 'Left' which seem to assume stupidity and violence - and do appease with lies and platitudes - and assume change and communication are not possible.

I spend a fair amount of time musing on the enigma of Caroline Lucas. She is, clearly, an absolutely extraordinary woman.

I have a theory that she has lent the Green Party an extraordinary amount of credibility. But I also think that it was precisely because the Green Party has ... a somewhat 'loose' nature ... that she was/has been able to rise to a position of prominence.

There is something in the Labour Party that really seems to swish women like Lucas. By rights,there should be women like that at the front of Labour. But...

And there is also something about the whole Green Party/TRA thing that bodes very I'll for Labour, post Ed Miliband's £3 membership, the Momentum membership, and the hardening of a closed Corbyn circle. But that's another story - and now isn't the time for that.

Oh. My. God.

This has made me feel so much rage. Tweeted by Mike Galsworthy. Apologies if it’s been share already - a little behind again...

twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/status/1083886169216176128?s=21

So Grayling this morning is basically accusing most leavers of potential thuggery because there would be civil unrest if we don’t leave?
Surely that’s a statement made to continue to divide the country and veiled threats are hardly helpful?
I don’t think the country will be that safe if we have a no deal.

Having just looked at Sky News online this morning and read the article about the Gilet Jaunes in France, that excellent piece by Caroline lucas is getting close to identical to the calls by the Gilets Jaunes, the ones that are not out burning cars and smashing things.
It is almost so close in thoughts that you only have to point out that Yorkshire and Humberside aren't in France and a handful of other details.
I truly hope that Macron has sufficient 'clout' in France to address the inequality, which is largely the same issue as in the UK.
The 'original' trigger for the GJ protests was about fuel prices. This had actually been set by the previous French government as a firm attempt to tackle global warming issues. In a 'carrot and stick' approach, it was a bit too much stick, and the existing taxes which are quite high pushed it over the edge. It is interesting that they don't necessarily want Macron out of government, but that inequality is tackled, which they acknowledge has been brought bu successive governments.

From Caroline's article:
{The Palace of Westminster, Gothic, rat-infested,}
Is she referring to four legged rodents or the bipeds?

Former shadow Northern Ireland minister asks elections watchdog to investigate DUP Brexit dark money

Why has it taken so long? BBC investigation in June 2018:

Brexit, Dark Money and the DUP

(Worth reading)

In response to the programme's findings, Gavin Millar QC, an expert on electoral law, called on the Electoral Commission to investigate further.

"It has to compel answers from those involved, which it has powers to do. If necessary it needs to obtain court orders compelling answers from people involved, and disclosure of information," he said.