Westminstenders: What The Hell Happens Next?!

[RedToothBrush]

John Bercow has just spent over at an hour dealing with a Points of Order, in which he has argued that he is defending the soverignty of the House of Commons and that is his duty, not to simply to be a cheerleader for the executive.

Taking back control seems to have rather upset ERG Brexiteers.

As Jess Phillips astutely pointed out:
"People only care about procedures, and protecting and conserving the procedures, when they don't like the outcome of the thing that is about to happen and never when it is going in their favour."

And given what we have seen the Executive do over the last few months in terms of trying to use procedure for its own political gain, this is quite a fair point.

There are however certain constitutional questions this is all raising. And we have a very real constitutional crisis here.

Bercow has ruled that he CAN allow an amendment (because the previous vote had prevented only a motion and a debate) put forward by Grieve to go to a vote.

This amendment would - if it is passed by the house - require May to report to the house within 3 days if the WA fails to pass next week.

This would be a significant victory, if it passed because at present the position is where May can delay reporting back to the house until it start to get to the point where politically the opposition can't influence things, and a 'meaningful vote' will in practice be more like a gun to the head by the Executive, rather than the House of Commons acting in a sovereign manner and being free to make its own decisions rather than be forced into a corner by Parliamentary Procedure and the politicking of Parliamentary Procedure to undermine the independence of the HoC.

Allowing more time for the opposition to hold the government to account, does not necessarily change anything. It just means the executive can not just run down the clock in the way it perhaps has been intending.

The HoC could of course, vote against the amendment.

The WA is to come to the HoC next week.

And we have no idea what the hell is going to happen next.

Arthur They'd only extend that far for a good reason
Since an extension requires unanimity from the 27 members, someone could probably veto even then

There is not going to be renegotiation of the WA itself anyway. The EU has repeatedly said that
Backstop, expat rights, exit bill are non-negotiable.

If Labour sticks to the red line over FOM, then even a quick change to the accompanying PD - giving a different aim for the trade deal - doesn't look likely.

The EU are likely to give May some flowery assurances later on the backstop and future trade deal, especially if the WA is voted down
but nothing legally binding to alter the backstop, which is the real roadblock.

Bollocks that Tory muppet of whom you speak glories in the unlikely name of Cleverly

Did you see the wonderful woman in the audience who brilliantly dismantled the idea that anyone should have a shred of sympathy for TM? I could have hugged her.

Hi BigChoc I realise that. I was just making the point that even if the EU agreed to extend A50, they would be reluctant to extend for long because the elections are coming up

Springtimeyet - my earlier rant post echoes your hopes (and fears)

And I'm not as pessimistic about timescales as tonsilss for the following reasons

Scotland would need to 1) get permission to hold an independence referendum,
The next GE (which may possibly be sooner than 2022 ) may well result in another 56 (or more SNP MPs as a strongly pro-EU party wanting to distance the country from the English clusterfuck. If it ends up being another hung parliament, then the SNP may well extract the agreement for a Section 30 notice in return for a confidence and supply agreement (a lot cheaper than the DUP ) Caveat: that does assume that Labour are in a position to form a minority government as the SNP wouldn't go into a confidence and supply agreement with the Conservatives

2) organise it
I'm sure the SNP are currently working on plans. Admittedly this time they wouldn't have the 2 years that they had last time - but a year should be plenty - and allow Scots to feel the full impact of a No-Deal Brexit

3) vote for independence
See above The fact that I was talked to a self-avowed died in the wool Scottish Unionist (old school Comservative) at Hogmanay who said that post March 29, he would be voting Yes to ensure Scotland returns to EFTA as a minimum/EU for preference then that gives me hope. A close friend voted No because of her fear that Scotland would be dragged out of the EU if it voted for Independence despite me saying the greater risk was if we stayed part of the UK. But I did extract a promise from her that she'd campaign for Independence if what I warned her about came to pass - and she has stood by her promise (there is nothing more evangelical than a disillusioned Labour voter )

4) probably spend years preparing for it,
Why? There's already been a lot of preparatory work that is ongoing.

5) apply to join the EU
Despite what was said during the Indyref There is no queue per se, as accession happens when you meet the criteria and as we currently meet the criteria , it shouldn't take too long (even with mad WM legislation/trade deals) to get back to that state. The one area where we might have a problem is joining the Euro. We would no longer have the UK opt-out, but would need to demonstrate fiscal probity before being allowed to join the Euro. But like Sweden, we could turn that to our advantage if we didn't actually want to join the Eurozone as we could just continue to just fail the financial criteria.

5) wait no doubt for several years even if the EU agrees
See above. Plus I'm sure that Nicola and her team are putting in a shedload of soft diplomacy to smooth the way (see the Spanish comments about not objecting as long as Scotland achieves its independence with due constitutional process)

Seems unlikely that this would take less than 10 years?
I'm hoping 5 years . 10 years if the WA is signed or May revokes and thereby reduces the immediate pain

In any event, there is also the option of EFTA membership (whose current members would welcome Scotland which wouldn't unbalance the organisation unlike the cuckoo that the UK would be ) which would also give us (and our children) freedom of movement throughout the EU and EFTA area.

Apparently, the Dept for International Development have re-deployed up to 50% of their staff to prep for No Deal.

One key focus is to prioritise the import of the most calorific foods...

@UnnecessaryFennel Is there a source for that?

I'm not doubting it but would be useful to have a source to convince some of my closer friends that prepping is a thing they may really want to think about...

Calorific food? Great.

More posts on the brexit med thread. Last year pharmacists and GPs hushed away concerns as if patients were over anxious

DPs script in next wk....we shall see.

I really thought/hoped gov wouldn't be this stupid and yet here we are, being this stupid . It feels surreal.

Who came up with this? And why the hell did it seem a good idea?!

There is to be no renegotiation of the WA itself, but the EU also said no renegotiation with the current red lines. Ie if the red lines changed that might, in principle, change - however in reality there's no time.

Corbyn professed aim is to regenotiate a deal without the SM, but there no way the EU will get out of bed for that.

It's a personal source, but one with immediate first-hand knowledge and I trust it absolutely.

But obviously I understand that's not the same as a verifiable one.

I now have an empty storage box and a basic list of things to stock agreed with DH. I have a restricted diet for medical reasons so just hoping for the best is just not something I'm up for. I need food that isn't going to leave me in agony. If I don't end up needing it than all the better, all it means is I have a few extra tins of tomatoes and spare coffee. Never a bad thing.

The amount of legislation that is required to be passed for Brexit now is too great for March 29. If the WA was passed, the EU would allow the extra time but apart from that or a 2nd referendum were out on March 29. It's over, we're "no dealing".

Unfortunately, becoming independent and then joining the EU would be complicated by the fact that the UK (England/Wales/NI) would be a 3rd country. So presumably a hard border would be necessary. And more difficult to trade with England than currently. Scotland currently mainly trades with England.
I dread to think how tough it would be to disentangle everything - after centuries of unity.

I contacted the headmaster of DC's boarding school. Pointing out that no deal is looking likely, in which case there will be food shortages, and probably travel problems. Asked to see the school's Brexit contingency plan. From his answer, it seems that there is no contigency plan. Despite my having written a couple of times previously and been told that everything was under control (under control in the sense of head in sand presumably).

Tonsilss did he say if there's going to be a plan? Can you keep enough petrol (safely) to do a round trip to collect them if need be? Hopefully you've put the wind in his sails.

Also hopefully we revoke

So what are the odds on Tuesdays vote happening do you think? I have started to buy extras of regular foodstuffs, I think if I told my peers they'd think I was bonkers, I can't believe how so many people seem oblivious to potential massive disruption to food, medicine and fuel supplies let alone everything else

Actually, a few people I know who claim it’s all fear mongering, have secretly been stockpiling. Their kids let it slip!

Would the EU agree to an extension for a PV on May's deal and no deal ? I could see her going for this option.

I think the vote will happen...because it has to happen at some point. Also...if she postpones then the sensible MPs will go full steam ahead preventing no deal and I think they are getting inventive, creative and highly motivated. TM should fear sensible and motivated MPs. If No Deal is blocked then it's WA or what?

EU have said they will extend for PV. Just the election of MEPs to contend with to make extension workable.

I can’t believe that both Conservatives and Labour are so cloth eared. (Well yes I can.). They both know that jobs will disappear, businesses fail and the country will be worse off under any form of Brexit. Business generally supports the Conservative party, yet the Conservatives have betrayed it in the most appalling way, summed up by Boris’ “fuck business”. Labour under Corbyn pretend that it wants a Brexit that preserves jobs and workers’rights, yet behaves in a way that manifestly contradicts this, Thornberry saying FOM (and therefore SM) ruled out. The Westminster bubble is now behaving like a black hole, getting infinitely dense as it disappears up its own backside into a delusional parallel universe where the idea of civil unrest, the army on the streets, rationing and sick people unable to access medicines is a reasonable consequence of being unable to decide the correct response to the so-called “will of the people”, itself a ploy by a Conservative Prime Minister to try to fix fissures in his own party. And most of us (I believe) know this! And we let it happen!
I might go and riot outside Asda tomorrow. Sorry about the rant.

Thanks Hazardswan, extension even if remain wasn't an option on the ballot ?

I mean I might riot after stocking up a bit (and putting a few extra things in the food bank, MrsR).

The amount of legislation that is required to be passed for Brexit now is too great for March 29.

What gets me about the legislative logjam is that when you are faced with an immovable, incredibly important deadline in any other job, the solution is to work longer hours to meet it.

I realise it's like complaining about the upholstering in the Titanic life boats, but why in God's name is parliament not sitting at weekends to get all that legislation through?

The MPs have proven their disregard for the support staff already, so it's clearly not out of concern for them.

The pound is at a 7 month high tonight, despite Brexit. Oh wait it's because there's rumours that Brexit will be delayed.

Except we don't have a choice or option to. That's out of our control.