Westminstenders: What The Hell Happens Next?!

[RedToothBrush]

John Bercow has just spent over at an hour dealing with a Points of Order, in which he has argued that he is defending the soverignty of the House of Commons and that is his duty, not to simply to be a cheerleader for the executive.

Taking back control seems to have rather upset ERG Brexiteers.

As Jess Phillips astutely pointed out:
"People only care about procedures, and protecting and conserving the procedures, when they don't like the outcome of the thing that is about to happen and never when it is going in their favour."

And given what we have seen the Executive do over the last few months in terms of trying to use procedure for its own political gain, this is quite a fair point.

There are however certain constitutional questions this is all raising. And we have a very real constitutional crisis here.

Bercow has ruled that he CAN allow an amendment (because the previous vote had prevented only a motion and a debate) put forward by Grieve to go to a vote.

This amendment would - if it is passed by the house - require May to report to the house within 3 days if the WA fails to pass next week.

This would be a significant victory, if it passed because at present the position is where May can delay reporting back to the house until it start to get to the point where politically the opposition can't influence things, and a 'meaningful vote' will in practice be more like a gun to the head by the Executive, rather than the House of Commons acting in a sovereign manner and being free to make its own decisions rather than be forced into a corner by Parliamentary Procedure and the politicking of Parliamentary Procedure to undermine the independence of the HoC.

Allowing more time for the opposition to hold the government to account, does not necessarily change anything. It just means the executive can not just run down the clock in the way it perhaps has been intending.

The HoC could of course, vote against the amendment.

The WA is to come to the HoC next week.

And we have no idea what the hell is going to happen next.

BigChoc I think she'd go for extension + PV before No Deal. Especially if MPs are (finally) determined to block No Deal.

It would be an extraordinary constitutional situation to ignore the will of Parliament to that degree.

Just catching up on the thread....

I think we keep falling into the same trap of assuming it's just 'a few headbangers' that want no deal.

I will say again what I said yesterday - a lot of Leavers want no deal. A lot, not a tiny minority. And that's why I maintain that revoke is the remainers unicorn and that TM is much more likely to say she tried with the WA but that, failing that, no deal meets the will of the people.

Consider this round up of various polls re her voters:

But perhaps Mrs May’s biggest difficulty is that when Conservative supporters are faced with a choice between accepting her deal and pursuing an alternative course of action, many of them say they would prefer a harder Brexit than the one that she seems to have in mind. For example, when YouGov most recently asked their respondents to choose between leaving the EU on the basis of the Prime Minister’s deal, leaving without a deal, or remaining in the EU, the 41% of Conservatives who said their first preference was to accept the deal was almost matched by the 39% who stated that their first choice would be to leave without a deal. A second YouGov poll found that, although, when faced with a range of options, 41% of Conservatives felt that Britain should leave the EU on the basis of the deal, as many as 36% either said that Britain should reject the deal and either leave without one or else seek a new one.
The inclination of many (but far from all) Conservative voters to pursue a harder Brexit was also in evidence when BMG presented voters with a very wide range of alternative courses of action, ranging from leaving without a deal at one end through to having a second referendum on whether to leave or not at the other. In this instance, as many as 53% of Conservatives chose either leaving ‘the EU and trading on WTO rules’ or pursuing in one way or the other a ‘Canada plus style free trade deal’. Just 14% picked out the government’s deal. Similarly, when faced with a straight choice between accepting the withdrawal agreement on the one hand and ‘leaving the EU and trading on WTO rules’ on the other, slightly more Conservatives (52%) backed the latter course of action than supported the former.
In short, much like the party itself, Conservative voters appear to be roughly evenly divided between those who are willing to back Mrs May’s deal and her approach to the Brexit negotiations, and those who are more critical and would prefer a harder Brexit. That reality will not make the decision that Tory MPs now face any easier.

I can see her going against Parliament. She will be egged on my some in her cabinet, and many in the party.
Thinking about how she hid evidence her department had that EU immigrants benefited the EU, rather than the opposite, as was sold to the public before the Referendum.

Sorry I was slow to reply - MN logged me out.

I'm now a little paranoid MN's been hacked and my password's been harvested!

DG The word here is that No Deal would probably be as bad for Germany - and several other EU countries like the NL - as the 2008 financial crisis.

So commentators are really hoping the WA is approved - Revoke is thought very unlikely, although still the preferred option if possible.
No Deal is regarded as insanity ... but they lost their confidence in our sanity some time ago.

Many businesses have already removed the UK from their supply chain;
others will struggle to do so in time now, or were unable to find a suitable alternate supplier before.

We are integrated too much with the UK to disengage without pain in the time left.
So there will be pain, possibly even a recession in some other EU countries - certainly in the RoI.
(add on a few orders of magnitude for the UK)

Germany thinks it can make up the losses in the UK market (fewer customers able to afford German goods) by exports elsewhere, hence escape with a drop in GDP increase, but not in GDP.

However, no politician or business leader is suggesting risking the SM to avoid No Deal, because all realise that damage to the SM would be existential
Also, noone is suggesting abandoning / pressuring the RoI

One point where I disagree with pp though:
If the HoC passes the WA, but there is insufficient time for all the necessary following legislation,
then it is almost certain that the EU would agree unanimously to extend - Germany / Merkel would push massively for this

BUT
not for a pointless extension to dither or try to renegotiate - the WA is unchangeable;
the PD possibly not if the UK decides in time

I can see her Revoking in the national interest.

My main scepticism of the WA is that it will need good negotiators with a concrete plan starting 30 March. The UK has proven it doesn't have either a plan or negotiators (that are in evidence). I presume there must actually be some in the background other than the David Davies and the other fluffy bunnies.

bellini I don't see her Revoking in the national interest.

The 10% chance I give for Revoke is that she may judge it in the interests of the Tory party after all
especially if Labour's position changes in time

Leclerc Despite what is claimed by both sides, I expect multiple extensions of the transition period if the WA passes.
Even brilliant negotiators couldn't manage a trade deal of such complexity in 2-3 years

The extensions would give time for reality / new politicians to arrive in the UK

Laura Kuenssberg claims she has been told by someone in the government May will try to transform defeat into a weapon to lure Brexiteer. Interestingly they think Benn’s amendment of No WA vs No Deal is the most likely to pass:

“Someone in Government was explaining to me yesterday they feel rather hopeful of having a much smaller defeat because they think the most likely amendment to get enough backing is the Hilary Benn amendment.

"The Hilary Benn amendment says, ‘no to this deal and no to no deal.’ If that wins, that will win because of a relatively small group of Remainers.

"If Number 10 were feeling crunchy and excitable and smart about how they might be able to spin that, they could say on Wednesday morning, ‘look, Brexit was defeated by a small group of Remainers who are trying to thwart Brexit. come with me, back my deal.’

"'Oh, look, here’s a ladder for some Brexiteers to climb down. Oh, look, here’s a way to actually make this seems like it is a for Brexit or against Brexit vote rather than for Theresa May’s deal or against Theresa May’s deal'."

Listen to the whole audio here:

www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1070657/Brexit-news-BBC-Laura-Kuenssberg-Theresa-May-UK-EU-withdrawal-divorce-deal-latest

If there is a general election and Labour do not stand firmly on revoke / remain, they will lose

If May kicks the can on down the road next week, the HoC will force her hand but I'm not sure where to.

She will never revoke because she has god on her side and hates foreigners

If The vote goes ahead and is defeated, surely the only options left are-

Hard Brexit that no one with any kind of brain wants, OR

Revoke.

Extension to A50 would Only apply if WA is passed to enable critical legislation.

Revoke is not looking impossible now.

I think Revoke is much less likely than extension on whatever pretext.

Although May keeps denying it, according to the Telegraph people around her have put out feelers for extension themselves.

If Benn’s amendment is passed MP’s would be voting against WA and No Deal at the same time.

Did you see QT last night? The tory muppet on there was pushed about what is plan B when they lose the vote. He said that plan B is ... to make sure plan A goes through. I shit you not.

My tax summary, arrived today. And we see that a large proportion goes to the bloated, undemocratic dictatorship that is the EU...oops, no we don’t.

bollocks noooo?!

That “plan B is plan A revisited” has been trotted out by a number of Tory spokesparrots recently.

BCF
Of course AFTER the WA is signed the EU can put it's feet up and wait for the squabbling to finish as it will be on the UK's 'tab'.
I can't imagine industry that has come from the UK to the EU to go back. It will be quite handy for those that feel the need to downsize (VW/Ford/???) as the UK plants can just wither and die with a legitimate 'cause' over as long as necessary.
It would be after all 'just business' and BoJo (who he?) expressed his views.

The EU No Deal prep may not be fully ready,
but atm opinion in Germany is that they just want to get Brexit over with
and not having it drag on and keep taking up time from other issues:
migrants, Trump, Russia, the coming global recession, the environment ...

If May wants an extension, she needs to convince the EU it is in their interest to grant it.
i.e. that there is a decent possibility of either the WA or Revoke passing

They'd extend for a PV
but no point in extending for a GE unless they think it would improve the chances of at least avoiding No Deal

If the govt begs for more time without good reason, the EU might still extend a few weeks, just to show it's going the extra mile,
because Brexit even up to mid-May would still mean no UK MEPs.

They would almost certainly grant an extension if May promised - in a legally binding text - to take No Deal off the table

mobile.twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1083699422591176706

Alex Wickham@alexwickham

Conservative MEPs have been summoned to Downing Street to meet the PM... No10 source says it's a regular meeting but MEPs are speculating about an extension to Article 50 meaning they would have to stand in the May Euro elections...

Report: Aachen treaty to push for German UN security seat

Big news here still:
new treaty with France means both countries will push for Germany to become a permanent member of the UN Security Council

euobserver.com/tickers/143868

If May wants an extension, she needs to convince the EU it is in their interest to grant it.

Am sure I read somewhere they wouldn't want to extend A50 beyond the next EU elections that are coming up

I saw a clip of a German tv host on my FB newsfeed the other day. He said 'Hard brexit, soft brexit, boil in the bag brexit, we don't care. Just fuck off already.' Pretty much sums up the attitude where I am too.

Thornberry has apparently confirmed in the Commons today that Labour would be ending FOM.

This is significant because the EU would likely refuse to reopen negotiation on withdrawal with Corbyn if this is one of his red lines.