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Brexit

Westminstenders: What The Hell Happens Next?!

996 replies

RedToothBrush · 09/01/2019 14:14

John Bercow has just spent over at an hour dealing with a Points of Order, in which he has argued that he is defending the soverignty of the House of Commons and that is his duty, not to simply to be a cheerleader for the executive.

Taking back control seems to have rather upset ERG Brexiteers.

As Jess Phillips astutely pointed out:
"People only care about procedures, and protecting and conserving the procedures, when they don't like the outcome of the thing that is about to happen and never when it is going in their favour."

And given what we have seen the Executive do over the last few months in terms of trying to use procedure for its own political gain, this is quite a fair point.

There are however certain constitutional questions this is all raising. And we have a very real constitutional crisis here.

Bercow has ruled that he CAN allow an amendment (because the previous vote had prevented only a motion and a debate) put forward by Grieve to go to a vote.

This amendment would - if it is passed by the house - require May to report to the house within 3 days if the WA fails to pass next week.

This would be a significant victory, if it passed because at present the position is where May can delay reporting back to the house until it start to get to the point where politically the opposition can't influence things, and a 'meaningful vote' will in practice be more like a gun to the head by the Executive, rather than the House of Commons acting in a sovereign manner and being free to make its own decisions rather than be forced into a corner by Parliamentary Procedure and the politicking of Parliamentary Procedure to undermine the independence of the HoC.

Allowing more time for the opposition to hold the government to account, does not necessarily change anything. It just means the executive can not just run down the clock in the way it perhaps has been intending.

The HoC could of course, vote against the amendment.

The WA is to come to the HoC next week.

And we have no idea what the hell is going to happen next.

OP posts:
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UnnecessaryFennel · 11/01/2019 17:55

Ah, no, you're in Scotland, sorry didn't see that tonsilss Grin

BiglyBadgers · 11/01/2019 17:59

I'm with your dp fennel. Just about to clear out a good sized, secure storage box for putting some emergency food in so we can keep it in the shed just in case. While I hope that those who believe parliament will stop a no deal are right I can't quite bring myself to be so optimistic at the moment.

DGRossetti · 11/01/2019 18:01

With diplomatic efforts at full tilt we have Jacob RM insulting the Japanese PM over whaling.

Shame he cant' quite bring himself to apply the same level of ire at the Saudis (for example).

Hazardswan · 11/01/2019 18:03

29th march brexit deadline almost impossible however the vote goes

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-news-theresa-may-deal-article-50-extend-parliament-commons-eu-withdrawal-a8723281.html

Not yet official policy to extend however...

1tisILeClerc · 11/01/2019 18:04

You have to ask seriously why would the EU grant an extension?
The British government have pissed about for over 2 1/2 years, insulted many of the EU diplomats and heads of state, severely damaged many European businesses, attempted to go behind the backs of the negotiating teams, trashed a major chunk of the UK business, now having a go at insulting the Japanese and still have no bloody clue what the UK wants apart from a nebulous 'Brexity' type thing.

1tisILeClerc · 11/01/2019 18:06

{Shame he cant' quite bring himself to apply the same level of ire at the Saudis}
Probably down to the massive arms trade and not wanting to upset them while they are busy killing others so using up the arms we have sold them.

UnnecessaryFennel · 11/01/2019 18:07

I know he's right bigly. It's just that, for me, the cognitive dissonance is deafening.

I think I am still, mostly, in the grip of normalcy bias...

1tisILeClerc · 11/01/2019 18:09

When March 29 rolls along the arms trade night be the biggest industry.
Chance for a rebrand of the UK, something you could probably help with DGR.
'UK Arms, kills 99.9 % of........Dead'.

DGRossetti · 11/01/2019 18:09

You have to ask seriously why would the EU grant an extension?

Personally I don't need to ask, because they won't - as things stand.

I suspect the UK has had it's 15 minutes of fame, and is now really on the backburner. The EU has done all it can - more really. And unlike the UK, it was quietly preparing for no-deal in parallel. In the ultimate dismissal of Brexiteer hyperbole, there are more important things to worry about now.

nicoala1 · 11/01/2019 18:10

Surely UK cannot unilaterally decide to extend the A50 deadline?

DGRossetti · 11/01/2019 18:11

Chance for a rebrand of the UK, something you could probably help with DGR. 'UK Arms, kills 99.9 % of........Dead'.

Nah - it would have to be : "Get your arms from the UK. The worlds only supplier of Halal weapons guaranteed to be sharia-compliant"

(3...2...1 Grin)

DGRossetti · 11/01/2019 18:12

Surely UK cannot unilaterally decide to extend the A50 deadline?

You didn't get the Brexiteer memo - the UK can do what the hell it likes.

Sadly, they didn't get the Rest Of The World memo : Oh, yeah ?

UnnecessaryFennel · 11/01/2019 18:13

No, they can't, nicoala. There will be no extensions.

We are now the 'heartsink' country, as far as the EU are concerned.

IrenetheQuaint · 11/01/2019 18:15

I think the EU would probably agree a 4-6 week extension, particularly if the vote was passed and we just needed to pass some relevant legislation, or if we had a clear sense of direction (don't laugh at the back there).

Longer than that becomes tricky because of the EU elections in May.

1tisILeClerc · 11/01/2019 18:20

A bit of rebranding perhaps. France can have 'Greater Brittany' and that island off the French coast can be 'Lesser Britain'.
Maybe in 'Hitch Hiker' fashion it should be destroyed so France can see Ireland better.

Ta1kinPeace · 11/01/2019 18:20

Mad, mad, its all mad

DGRossetti · 11/01/2019 18:21

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-46842781

Ford is wanting to cut 370 workers at an engine plant in south Wales in a first phase of up to 1,000 job losses, BBC Wales understands.

Unions have pledged to fight compulsory redundancies at the car giant's plant in Bridgend after they were briefed by Ford management on Friday.

It is believed the first tranche of cuts would be offered as voluntary redundancies.

Ford is looking to shake up its European operations.

(contd)

1tisILeClerc · 11/01/2019 18:23

The EU doesn't need an extension, meaning that 'No deal' is covered, WA is covered (there will be no renegotiation) and 'Revoke' which for many aspects wouldn't need a delay although negotiations for all 3 scenarios will take place.

DGRossetti · 11/01/2019 18:24

I think the EU would probably agree a 4-6 week extension, particularly if the vote was passed and we just needed to pass some relevant legislation, or if we had a clear sense of direction (don't laugh at the back there).

I can't see that personally. It doesn't make anything easier from the EUs perspective. It's also politically delicate ... the UK really doesn't have the goodwill for that. I doubt we'll even get a mint with the bill.

DGRossetti · 11/01/2019 18:28

Be curious to hear BCFs take on this:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46798281

What are Germany's no-deal Brexit plans?

As his sleek metal machines whirr and grind in a soothing rhythm, Paul Kuendiger's rather high-tech print shop exudes the kind of ordered efficiency upon which so many German businesses like to pride themselves.

Brexit Britain, the furious cries of its politicians and the anguished chants of its protesters, seem far away. But some of Mr Kuendiger's best customers are in the UK. The stickers he exports there are worth 10,000 euros (£9,000) a month to his business. The companies he supplies expect delivery fast - often within two days of order.

And so, as British MPs wrestle over how the country intends to leave the EU, perhaps it's no wonder that Mr Kuendiger feels uneasy. What German business fears most - uncertainty - is, after all, contagious.

"We're preparing for the worst of all cases, preparing for everything", he says, as shining sheets of brightly coloured stickers emerge from the printing machine.

"If we have a soft Brexit, we'll have a bit more time and that's good but obviously we have to assume there could be a hard Brexit."

He's not alone in fearing the consequences of a no-deal Brexit. The IFO institute for economic research surveyed 1,300 German businesses before Christmas and found they rated the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit at 43%.

And, as Germany's Economy Minister, Peter Altmaier, acknowledges, "a disorderly Brexit would hit the economy hard". He met his British counterpart in Berlin this week to discuss "the challenges and consequences of Brexit".

Britain is Germany's fifth-largest trading partner (after the US, the Netherlands, China and France). Exports amounted to 85.4bn euros (£77.2bn) in 2017. Germany's imports from the UK were worth 36.8bn euros (£33.3bn), giving Germany a trading surplus of 48.6 bn euros (£44bn).

Theresa May's end of year dash to Berlin brought warm words from Angela Merkel - but no concessions. Mrs Merkel remains - officially - optimistic an orderly Brexit can still be achieved but she's also adamant the negotiated EU Brexit deal is the only one on the table and she's ordered her government to make preparations in case Britain rejects it.

Among the contingency plans approved by her "Brexit cabinet" are moves to secure the rights of British citizens living in Germany - in the event of a no deal, ministers have drafted a law that would enable British people to stay in the country, though after a three-month period (which may yet be extended) they would have to register and apply to remain.

There are plans to recruit hundreds of extra customs staff and a spokesman for Angela Merkel, speaking recently about the need to protect the German financial services market, said a draft law aimed to change tax and working legislation - including a measure to make it easier to hire and fire senior banking staff - to ensure no disadvantage to this sector of German industry.

The German finance ministry - together with the German chamber of commerce - has organised touring roadshows to educate and advise businesses.

But there is concern here - in commercial and political circles - that Germany is not really ready for the full impact of a no-deal scenario.

One concern is there's no simple "one-stop shop" website or government-issued notices providing advice and information regarding a no deal, in the way there is in the UK and the EU. Privately, officials admit that many companies - particularly the smaller ones - have not done enough to protect themselves.

"I believe Germany is woefully unprepared", says Alexander Graf Lambsdorff, the foreign policy spokesman for the opposition Free Democrat Party (FDP), who doesn't hold out much hope for the Brexit deal.

"Looking at the political situation in the House of Commons, we see no majority in the Tories and a prime minister having to implement something that she probably doesn't believe in. It's a little bit like Theresa in Wonderland with Boris Johnson as the March hare."

He's urging the German government to do more to prepare for a no-deal scenario.

"Actually, on that count, the British government is doing a better job, as is the European Commission. Both are already issuing notices for the case of a hard Brexit and Berlin must follow suit."

And this outspoken opposition MP makes the striking comment that, while he says he's been lobbied by plenty of business and industry figures concerned about a no-deal Brexit, not one of them wants the German government to take a softer approach, or offer more concessions to Britain.

Neither, significantly, does the powerful German car industry. Britain is its largest export market. Manufacturers have warned that a no-deal Brexit would be profoundly damaging. Bernhard Mattes, the president of the German car manufacturers association (VDA), says that such a scenario would result in tariffs, tricky logistics, higher costs and must be avoided.

Nevertheless, when he sits down with Angela Merkel, he says, he doesn't advocate or lobby for a different approach to Britain and the negotiated Brexit deal.

"The priority for us is the remaining 27 member states, that we stay together," he says. "That has to be first priority and that we don't make concessions that would invite others to go the same way."

springtimeyet · 11/01/2019 18:30

My DC are 10 tonsilss so I was kind of hoping 10 years might be enough time to sort it out. I'm usually inclined to be optimistic. They have already lived in 2 countries outside of the U.K. So are inclined to regard themselves as goal citizens anyway but they have yet to understand the complexities of visas etc.

nicoala1 · 11/01/2019 18:32

I’m betting that the vote next Tuesday will not happen now.

If it does and is defeated then it is either no deal Or revoke. No one wants No Deal. Hmm

What do you think?

DGRossetti · 11/01/2019 18:33

@nicoala1

I’m betting that the vote next Tuesday will not happen now.

I've felt that for a while.

1tisILeClerc · 11/01/2019 18:34

www.bbc.com/news/av/world-asia-46828430/manila-s-trolley-boys
A dangerous business opportunity for those who have sunk lower.

Hazardswan · 11/01/2019 18:36

Article says the extension would be a couple wks while the gov passed all legislation needed for WA. I can see the EU being up that esp if it keeps things smooth and orderly.

But the esitmate is May will lose by over 200 votes.