Westminstenders: What The Hell Happens Next?!

[RedToothBrush]

John Bercow has just spent over at an hour dealing with a Points of Order, in which he has argued that he is defending the soverignty of the House of Commons and that is his duty, not to simply to be a cheerleader for the executive.

Taking back control seems to have rather upset ERG Brexiteers.

As Jess Phillips astutely pointed out:
"People only care about procedures, and protecting and conserving the procedures, when they don't like the outcome of the thing that is about to happen and never when it is going in their favour."

And given what we have seen the Executive do over the last few months in terms of trying to use procedure for its own political gain, this is quite a fair point.

There are however certain constitutional questions this is all raising. And we have a very real constitutional crisis here.

Bercow has ruled that he CAN allow an amendment (because the previous vote had prevented only a motion and a debate) put forward by Grieve to go to a vote.

This amendment would - if it is passed by the house - require May to report to the house within 3 days if the WA fails to pass next week.

This would be a significant victory, if it passed because at present the position is where May can delay reporting back to the house until it start to get to the point where politically the opposition can't influence things, and a 'meaningful vote' will in practice be more like a gun to the head by the Executive, rather than the House of Commons acting in a sovereign manner and being free to make its own decisions rather than be forced into a corner by Parliamentary Procedure and the politicking of Parliamentary Procedure to undermine the independence of the HoC.

Allowing more time for the opposition to hold the government to account, does not necessarily change anything. It just means the executive can not just run down the clock in the way it perhaps has been intending.

The HoC could of course, vote against the amendment.

The WA is to come to the HoC next week.

And we have no idea what the hell is going to happen next.

I agree with Tatiana

Absolutely, Leavers want the WA because they can then force whoever to negotiate a bare bones agreement during the transition period, Labour aren't going to win the next GE and so that means the Tories will be in charge of the final negotiations.

Sure WA gives a short term fix but that's all.

May will never contenance a no-deal, it's all theater to scare us.

Ah, the organised mob ...

I think Godwin can be safely suspended from hereonin. Hitlers rise to power was driven by the SA. If parallels continue, I look forward to a Night of the Long Knives.

Nikita Careful not to confuse your (probably already confused & ignorant) MP any further with talk of a Brexit rethink.
If you mean Revoke, then do state this plainly

There are far too many MPs who think the EU will renegotiate the WA - they won't.

The choices are WA vs Revoke, possibly via a PV if MPs chicken out of the decision

It is automatic no Deal if neither is chosen

Dh has been convinced all along (since 24 June 2016) that Brexit wouldn't happen.

From a Scottish independence perspective, there is a sort of, given this clusterfuck twisted win-win scenario if the WA fails as it is going to do : Revoke, which is the best result for the UK as a whole (given the economic damage that even the WA economy death by a thousand cuts during transition would inflict), even though there would be lots of upset People; or No Deal, which will bring about Scottish Independence quicker as the Scots seek to leave the English clusterfuck

For the avoidance of doubt, I don't want the latter because of the pain and suffering it would inflict on the poorest and most vulnerable in society (for whom life could indeed get worse, a lot worse ). But part of me does also think that the only way to lance the boil is to prove to the "left behind" that it's not the EU that is at fault, it is our own (UK) government's own policies and that Project Fear was not Project Fear but was Project Reality (as per David Lammy's excellent speech which interestingly hasn't been publicised by the BBC ).

But like others, I fear that people are now so blinded by the indoctrination of the extreme Brexiters (of both the right and the left ) that they will refuse to acknowledge that they were conned (the Backlash effect?). As a result, it will lead to a Far Right government (Because I don't see Labour getting its act together under Corbyn )

btw, those thugs are of the hardcore Brexiters who want No Deal

I'd be surprised if any of those thugs knows anything about Brexit. Or even what city they are in. They really were a rentamob - the Brexiteer equivalent of flying pickets. Their place in the hierarchy is below Brexiteer (and that's low) but just above single-celled organisms.

Next week they'll probably be hired by the pro-hunting lobby to beat up a few hunt saboteurs.

To be honest, I'd be amazed if any of them spoke English. Listen out for Slavic or Baltic accents ....

Why are people so sure that May won't allow No Deal ?
Especially if you think that is her plan of what the WA will produce anyway.

Anyone relying on May to Revoke at the last minute is taking one hell of a gamble
She has always put party before country and she will probably continue to do so

As long as Corbyn supports Brexit, she can be reasonably confident that the Tories would win a good majority at the next GE after Brexit

Why are people so sure that May won't allow No Deal?
Especially if you think that is her plan of what the WA will produce anyway

Her only interest is in her party and staying in power.
Wrecking the economy, via a no-deal means she risks Labour in no-10, she loses all credibility, after warning for months what a disaster it would she then does chooses no deal... because that is what no deal is, a choice she will have to make! (or not!)

anyway, i ve said all this before.

What happens in the transition period doesn't concern her, so long as the Tories are negotiating it (she "says" she'll stand down before the 2022 GE)

As long as Corbyn supports Brexit, she can be reasonably confident that the Tories would win a good majority at the next GE after Brexit

The only words for anyone who believes that after 2017 are disparaging observations on the persons mental faculties. Almost on a par with the level of critical thinking that trusts the people you don't trust to do what you trust them to do.

Politics is broken, what shall we do ?
Vote for someone

BigChoc, If you mean Revoke, then do state this plainly

Yes, good point. If she replies I'll clarify that. If not then I'll write again and make myself clearer.

Absolutely, Leavers want the WA because they can then force whoever to negotiate a bare bones agreement during the transition period, Labour aren't going to win the next GE and so that means the Tories will be in charge of the final negotiations.

Sure WA gives a short term fix but that's all.

May will never contenance a no-deal, it's all theater to scare us.

I agree with Jasjas. I can totally see how the likes of Gove and McVey are keeping a low profile and voting for the WA to then manipulate Brexit how they want.

I see Dominic "fool me" Grieve is now calling for Theresa May to "delay" Brexit if she loses the vote (that I still say will never happen).

Not quite sure what planet he's on today. I just hope it's better weather than Europe at the moment.

DG May fears if she Revokes that their will be all-out tory party civil war
She has also seen the last few polls saying that labour would lose massively if the support brexit and we Brexit

So, of the 2 dangerous possibilities, one tears the Tories apart and one doesn't

Just because you desperately want May to revoke does not mean that she will do it
She only thinks of her party and keeping it together

Her party members are 90% Brexiters; her voters are also heavily No Deal Brexiters
The ERG is much larger than the Tory Remainer MPs who don't even have a name or an org

She doesn't give a shit about harming the country, if she thinks it will save her party from tearing itself apart.

If Cobyn is replaced, or if he drops his support for Brexit ... then what is likely to happen in a GE changes dramatically

I find it much easier to imagine TM letting No Deal happen, than to imagine her taking the decision to revoke. She has said about 50 million times that the UK will definitely be leaving the UK. Vast sums of money have been spent preparing for No Deal. Imagine the way she will be treated by MPs, colleagues, the press, Leave supporters if she revokes.
If her WA is not supported, she will forever have the excuse that she delivered the goods and it is not her fault that No Deal happened (will of people etc).

May is the only one who can Revoke,
so you are all betting on her to Revoke ?
I have it down as about 10% chance

DG May fears if she Revokes that their will be all-out tory party civil war

be curious to see what that looks like, compared to now ...

Yup, Tonsil
She would be absolutely crucified by her party if she Revokes

Does she have that courage ?

WIth No Deal, she would be praised for not giving in
The party will lose at most 5-6 MPs, instead of destroying itself.

she can make xenophobic speeches about EU punishment and also blame Remainer Citizens of Nowehere
and she will retire before it dawns on most people that No Deal has screwed the country longterm

DG You ain't seen nothing left
If she Revokes, you can see the real thing

As a Scot and one living abroad to at present to boot I do wonder if my long term political aims might be best met by a no deal Brexit. It does leave me with issues like a house England but if England (and Wales) are determined to Brexit then done in the form a no deal may make it more likely that Scotland will give up on the Union. I wouldn't push for it because it will screw over the most vulnerable in the UK. But it might actually be my best chance at getting hold of an EU passport for my DC.
Revoking is the only option that make sense however I have little faith in TM wanting to do it. If she can't get anything through Parliment then surely a PV has to be the way forward. Although that could just reproduce this mess if we aren't very thoughtful about how it is set up.

I agree with BigChoc. I find it very hard to see May revoking when most of her party and her voters want to leave even with no deal. I think there's more chance of her called a PV and that's pretty damn unlikely to be honest. However, she does have form for saying she absolutely won't call a vote just before she calls a vote...

But hey, what do I know. Anything could happen at this point.

With diplomatic efforts at full tilt we have Jacob RM insulting the Japanese PM over whaling. Always a good move I think.

Why are people so sure that May won't allow No Deal ?

Because it’s not up to May anymore. Parliament is belatedly ‘taking back control’. She’s mortally wounded even if she wins the vote.

If the WA is voted down, the next thing for Parliament is to get No Deal off the agenda. Whether there’s some kind of cross-party coalition, whether are enough votes for NC or GE or for PV + extension, precisely how the cookie crumbles, remains to be seen.

The upshot of the art50 cases is that Parliament can direct May to revoke, if necessary, according to our constitutional requirements - which would likely involve a vote.

May is not likely to do it off her own bat.

I think we’re more likely to go for an extension than a revoke.

spring - how old are your DC? Scotland would need to 1) get permission to hold an independence referendum, 2) organise it, 3) vote for independence, 4) probably spend years preparing for it, 5) apply to join the EU, 5) wait no doubt for several years even if the EU agrees. Seems unlikely that this would take less than 10 years?
I am in Scotland, and my DCs are teenagers, so I have given up on them getting an EU passport that way - realistically they are unlikely to be living in Scotland by that stage. I hope that they will get jobs and then eventually right to remain and citizenship in the EU. Not up to me, obviously, but I can encourage them in that direction.

I don’t personally think Revoke is very likely for the moment - it would only be used in emergency by Parliament to avoid No Deal, if other ways didn’t pan out.

Tonsilss I wonder if we have the same MP... blond, smarmy, telegenic 'serial entrepreneur'?

Tbh, I change my mind every five mins about what is most likely to happen. I said earlier (?previous thread) that I thought WA would squeak through and this afternoon's news seems to back that up... a bit. I don't believe there will be a Revoke - TM will never go for that. No Deal... DP has decided this weekend will be the one where the prepping gets serious and part of me agrees but the other part just thinks, FFS, how?

But yeah, from her POV, No Deal is absolutely possible. There are still plenty of headbangers in her party, and she can scuttle off over the horizon 'knowing' that she fulfilled Dur Will Of (some of) Dur Peepul.

And the evil fuckit goblin in me thinks, fine. They wanted it. Let 'em have it.