Westminstenders: What The Hell Happens Next?!

[RedToothBrush]

John Bercow has just spent over at an hour dealing with a Points of Order, in which he has argued that he is defending the soverignty of the House of Commons and that is his duty, not to simply to be a cheerleader for the executive.

Taking back control seems to have rather upset ERG Brexiteers.

As Jess Phillips astutely pointed out:
"People only care about procedures, and protecting and conserving the procedures, when they don't like the outcome of the thing that is about to happen and never when it is going in their favour."

And given what we have seen the Executive do over the last few months in terms of trying to use procedure for its own political gain, this is quite a fair point.

There are however certain constitutional questions this is all raising. And we have a very real constitutional crisis here.

Bercow has ruled that he CAN allow an amendment (because the previous vote had prevented only a motion and a debate) put forward by Grieve to go to a vote.

This amendment would - if it is passed by the house - require May to report to the house within 3 days if the WA fails to pass next week.

This would be a significant victory, if it passed because at present the position is where May can delay reporting back to the house until it start to get to the point where politically the opposition can't influence things, and a 'meaningful vote' will in practice be more like a gun to the head by the Executive, rather than the House of Commons acting in a sovereign manner and being free to make its own decisions rather than be forced into a corner by Parliamentary Procedure and the politicking of Parliamentary Procedure to undermine the independence of the HoC.

Allowing more time for the opposition to hold the government to account, does not necessarily change anything. It just means the executive can not just run down the clock in the way it perhaps has been intending.

The HoC could of course, vote against the amendment.

The WA is to come to the HoC next week.

And we have no idea what the hell is going to happen next.

I'm another ex-Corbyn fan. Sounds like we're broadly in agreement on here. I also saw him originally as a return to what politics should be about: discussing, debating, listening, trying to find the best solution for the problems of the country, which I define as all of its citizens, as a whole. As BiglyBadgers says, his position was not extreme left the way it has been painted, not then. The necessity for some sort of central planning and organisation as opposed to abandoning people to the rapacious central market is a principle that is widely accepted and pragmatically obvious. Europe puts more of it into practice.
But he has proven to be a let-down as a leader. The sideshow attacking women through the hyper-liberal TRAs, cosying up to misogynistic cultural values and legitimising commercialisation of women's bodies puts me right off. I cannot vote for my own and my dd's marginalisation and return to sexual slavery ffs.
The 'cosying' is pure theatre, put on for the benefit of Trump's core vote.
I hope you're right about that, although it shows just how much importance he attaches to relations with the UK and EU even then. I think he'll horse-trade with anyone that gives him a temporary kick myself.

I meant rapacious free market, although central is the way it is turning out in Britain.

/rant on

As mentioned before.... I used to be a Labour party member. However, I refuse to vote Labour while Corbyn is in charge - I simply do not think he is competent to run the Government even compared to the current shit-show that is TM's Government!

As I write the above, it makes me so angry I can feel my blood pressure rising. We need an effective opposition; I am left of centre (but I do hang onto the Centre - like him or loathe him, Blair was right that this is where elections are won) and can take or leave some of the policies espoused by the current Labour team, but dear God, will someone get the Labour party a decent leader??!

I remember the hateful 80s, with leftwing politics leading to people being made redundant (Liverpool was a classic example), a triumph of ideals over reality. THAT is what worries me about the current leadership.

A party of protest is NOT a party of government. The two are completely opposite. One decries everything without providing solutions, the other tries to build. I fear Labour is turning into the former.

ARGGHHH

rant off/

Never, ever did I think I'd side with Gove and an Express front page but I did enjoy him pointing out that Labour's stance to Brexit is bollocks yesterday.

a triumph of ideals over reality
A good summing up of British politics for the last few years. Right wing or left wing - extremes come to resemble each other. Can we have some sensible people back please?

From Robert Peston:

The foreign secretary has just taken a huge political risk on behalf of the prime minister.

He has reframed the Brexit debate by saying it's "a version" of her deal or - probably - no Brexit, because he thinks parliament would find a way to block a no-deal Brexit and won't be able to rally around an alternative Brexit.

Jeremy Hunt also said that it would be impossible for her deal to win the meaningful vote unless there are "legally binding" changes to the Northern Ireland backstop - which the EU has ruled out.

So that sounded like de facto confirmation from the top of the government that she will lose on Tuesday.

What is he doing?

Well his ostensible motive was to persuade Brexit-supporting MPs to change their minds and back the PM, at the last - by scaring them that they won't get the no-deal exit some of them want, and by voting against the PM they are highly likely to keep us in the EU.

But there are, as I say, considerable risks to this strategy.

One is that it won't persuade many true Brexiters, especially since he spent a good chunk of his interview on the Today Prog conceding that the PM's Brexit plan is deeply flawed.

Another is that, at a time when morale in the People's Vote camp was flagging, and when they feared the likeliest outcome was some kind of super-fudged Brexit (hardly even in name only), he has reassured them there is a route to a referendum (if the foreign secretary thinks there is, surely there is).

So even if he persuades a few wobbly Brexiters to vote with the PM on Tuesday, he has guaranteed that Tory MPs who want a referendum will not be wooed back to her cause.

As has been his style recently, Jeremy Hunt has just chucked an enormous rock into the Brexit pond.

Goodness only knows whether it will set the good ship Theresa May back on course, or sink it.

The other thing, and last thing I'm going to say on the matter, is that it's worth remembering that the Corbyn voters being decried as "far left" and whose votes some are considering unimportant are overwhelmingly remain supporting even if Corbyn is not. Labour is majority remain and this is the case for those that voted and supported Corbyn.

As someone who would like to remain in the EU or at least keep the pressure up to maintain close relations disenfranchising a huge number of people who also want the same thing seems a bit of a foolish strategy. If we want to keep the pro-eu pressure on than we need to find a way to keep all these people who supported Corbyn's policies on other areas but not the brexit stance engaged and prepared to get out and vote in a helpful way if have another PV or GE.

Simply telling them how stupid they were for supporting Corbyn is maybe not the greatest way of doing that. Whether you like it or not if you want any chance of a good outcome from a PV or a GE in the near future you need to consider listening to some of what they are saying and get them inboard to vote.

I am a Remainer. I know full well that things will get worse.

My point is that saying you’re tired of people’s reasons for voting for Leave is shutting them down and refusing to listen to them. It’s saying that you know best, that you don’t care why they voted as they did, you and your reasons are more important than they are.

I am not talking about the hardcore lunatics that were seen harassing Anna Soubry earlier this week. I am talking about people who are living hand to mouth - and often not even that.
I’ve seen quite brusque comments from Remainers about them deserving it.

Of course I’m not saying to lie to people. I’m saying a bit of empathy and not “Shut up and be grateful for the meagre lot we choose to allow you!” wouldn’t go amiss, particularly when it comes from relatively well-off people who can afford to prep.
It’s that dismissive refusal to listen that is hardening attitudes and increasing anger and resentment.

{The 'cosying' is pure theatre, put on for the benefit of Trump's core vote.}
The biggest problem with this is that Putin is pretty smart and worse ruthless. He can get away with murder (literally) if it suits his plan.
Trump doesn't have the intellect to counter this, and plain 'assassination' is a bit more tricky in the USA. Trumps 'critical thinking' behind the wall has more holes than the wall.
Saying that, this whole Brexit mess is another massive failure to think of creative ways to improve peoples lives.
Salt Lake City has very few 'unemployed (if I am correct) in that the 'city' employs all who don't have regular jobs to do something for the city, gardening, street cleaning etc. OK it could be seen as patronising, and I don't doubt it is 'unfair' but to have shelter and food for everyone, and have a beautifully kept city is good overall.

Sorry, just realised saying it's the last thing I'm going to say on the matter sounds awfully like a flounce. It's not, I promise. I just really need to go do some work and I know the conversation will have moved on by the time I get back.

Just watching Peston on catch up - apparently bookies now 64% not leaving on 29th March (though this obvs also counts extension).

Whose else is still believing that vote will go ahead ?

Personally, I'm intrigued at the lack of froth about the Japanese PMs uncharacteristically blunt statement yesterday. In particular since he felt able to expand it to "the World".

It struck me as the worst possible thing anyone who supports the WA could do .The idea that a foreigner (ond one from a place that plays a particularly mythic role in what narrative the Brexiteers are following) could be suggesting to a sovereign nation what it should do can only infuriate, and possibly have a contrary effect.

Or is it just me ?

It's like the more world leaders attack Trump, the higher his ratings go.

Hmm. I see where you're coming from, Tanith.

David Lammy's speech was exemplary, I think. It was good to hear.

My anger comes from the way the 'Remainers don't care about poverty' is used to shut down Criticism of Brexit.

A little of my anger also comes from the continued pretence that Leave voters are all poor and to be pitied.

A lot of Leavers consider themselves to be comfortable and secure from what they know will be an economic kicking. The Ashcroft polls made it clear that a lot of Leave voters are nasty - and voted Leave for nasty reasons.

They don't merit pity - they actually merit fear - especially if you are vulnerable. They don't intend well for many people.

I'm disabled and reliant on the health service. I work in education, with disadvantaged children.

I care for those children - I fear those who would harm them.

I fear for myself.

And I am sick of people appeasing authoritarians - and using the pretence of pity to mask their appeasement.

However, I listened to an interesting debate on Radio 5 live where ardent life long labour voters based in the North of England are saying they will vote Tory. Due to Corbyn. Now that is significant.

It supports the "Brexit as religion" analysis. Pretty harsh slap in the face for the communities Thatcher destroyed though.

The thing that infuriates me is the concept that MPs and the government (of all flavours) don't KNOW what the 'ordinary' people want and need. It is bloody obvious in a supposedly civilised society that everyone needs decent food and an adequate quantity, warm safe accommodation and some form of employment as it is unfair on others for some to sit in their accommodation and have it paid entirely by others.
MPs don't need to have 'research groups' to go out and find this information out, thus kicking it into the distant future, but to sit down with a sheet of paper and scribble down how they are going to improve things.
If you are cold and hungry, do you simply curl up and die rather than make some form of effort? Yes it is a bit difficult and will take some effort to change, but that is what MPs are there for. Taking back control means every person in the UK has to do their bit to make things happen, not expect someone else to do it for you.

Japanese PMs uncharacteristically blunt statement

Yes, that was an interesting one. Japan is a country where social etiquette reigns supreme. For them to be so blunt, it really means something. Listen to them.

{sit down with a sheet of paper and scribble down how they are going to improve things.}
Mrsr8 and others on here are doing their best to help. It is not their 'job' to do this. The local councils, whose job it is to look after people should damn well do their job. OK things may be a bit stretched but if the likes or Mrsr8 go to the council with their proposal for a foodbank, the council should make every effort to support her with accommodation for dispersal and storage, contacts to get food and supplies brought in, a bit of 'logistics' perhaps.
Why is the population allowing local councils and MPs to get away with NOT supporting basic needs?

@DGRossetti interesting point you make about the influence positive or negative of any interventions from leaders of other nations. I concede that at this point I haven't heard what PM Abe actually said, only the reporting of it.

I understand that this is why we have heard relatively little from Angela Merkel, Emmanuel Macron etc, they wanted to avoid the appearance of intervening and allow Michel Barnier to represent the EU as a whole.

I remember well President Obama's "back of the queue" intervention pre referendum in April 2016 and the overwhelming strength of my negative reaction to it.

{Japanese PMs uncharacteristically blunt statement

Yes, that was an interesting one. Japan is a country where social etiquette reigns supreme. For them to be so blunt, it really means something. Listen to them.}
In a society where presenting your business card the wrong way up (during the formal bow) is an insult it is a VERY strong indication.
The depth of the embossing of your business card denotes your ranking within a company. And the bow when presenting has to be the correct degree and time, and you must 'inspect' the card you receive.

Someone needs to sit Corbyn down and tell him that without him labour would now be comfortably in government. He needs pressure to resign. He’s so delusional that he doesn’t accept his small popularity long since peaked, seems to believe labour would win if there was a GE, completely failing to see that it would likely give back May the majority she needs. Anyone with insight would have been ashamed at losing the last election against the most incompetent executive we’ve ever known.

How anyone can have such little insight into how they’re perceived and their own abilities is incredible. The same goes for May. They must either exist in a cosy echo chamber or have massive narcissist personalities.

Lammy and Cooper are fantastic and would allow labour to storm into power. It’s the crappest leadership we’ve ever seen.

Japan is a country where social etiquette reigns supreme. For them to be so blunt, it really means something.

Added to the fact that as far as I am aware, the Japanese are an incredibly reserved culture ... the fact they felt comfortable saying something on behalf of "the World" cannot be overstated enough. Since this is analogy alley, it's akin to the smallest, shyest most self effacing kid in the school going up to one of the prefects and saying "that's not a good idea". Not something they would have dreamt of by themselves. And almost certainly unlikely to end well when the warning is ignored.

I also think there's a much deeper meaning to the fact that it's Japan that made the statement. If any country knows the consequences of pursuing a campaign in the face of overwhelming odds, it's Japan. (Fans of woo might spot that Hiroshima was mentioned on this thread a day before the Japanese statement )

Japan has very good reason to want something to be able to balance the US - a weak EU doesn't suit at all.

Also, the focus on the narrative of the 'left behind' exicitly takes the focus off the Brexit big players: Russia, weird data groups like Palatin and Cambridge Anaytica, the disaster capitalists ....

It is dangerous to take your eyes off those people.