Westminstenders: What The Hell Happens Next?!

[RedToothBrush]

John Bercow has just spent over at an hour dealing with a Points of Order, in which he has argued that he is defending the soverignty of the House of Commons and that is his duty, not to simply to be a cheerleader for the executive.

Taking back control seems to have rather upset ERG Brexiteers.

As Jess Phillips astutely pointed out:
"People only care about procedures, and protecting and conserving the procedures, when they don't like the outcome of the thing that is about to happen and never when it is going in their favour."

And given what we have seen the Executive do over the last few months in terms of trying to use procedure for its own political gain, this is quite a fair point.

There are however certain constitutional questions this is all raising. And we have a very real constitutional crisis here.

Bercow has ruled that he CAN allow an amendment (because the previous vote had prevented only a motion and a debate) put forward by Grieve to go to a vote.

This amendment would - if it is passed by the house - require May to report to the house within 3 days if the WA fails to pass next week.

This would be a significant victory, if it passed because at present the position is where May can delay reporting back to the house until it start to get to the point where politically the opposition can't influence things, and a 'meaningful vote' will in practice be more like a gun to the head by the Executive, rather than the House of Commons acting in a sovereign manner and being free to make its own decisions rather than be forced into a corner by Parliamentary Procedure and the politicking of Parliamentary Procedure to undermine the independence of the HoC.

Allowing more time for the opposition to hold the government to account, does not necessarily change anything. It just means the executive can not just run down the clock in the way it perhaps has been intending.

The HoC could of course, vote against the amendment.

The WA is to come to the HoC next week.

And we have no idea what the hell is going to happen next.

The idea that America is some kind of moral force for good imo only dates from Roosevelt's era and actions. Since the 80s it has been more of a velvet covering over the steel of pragmatic self-interestedness, and that velvet covering is now wearing very thin indeed. Since Trump started cosying up to Putin I have had the thought that the world map looks like two allied large powers on either side of Europe. I'm afraid that the fate that awaits any power, however strong it is, caught between two other belligerents is universal.

Agree with most of that, DangermousesSidekick except for the 'cosying up to Putin' bit.

The 'cosying' is pure theatre, put on for the benefit of Trump's core vote.

Fuel rationing in NI will mean drivers heading to the Republic to fill up/smuggle fuel back across the border. Which will mean someone will need to police cars going back and forth...

Not if there are shortages in the Republic, which imports 75% of its refined oil products from the UK according to this site: ireland2050.ie/present/oil-and-gas/?q=where-does-our-oil-supply-come-from-how-is-it-imported-or-moved-around-the-country

Could the policing of petrol stations be intended to prevent smuggling in the other direction?

Either way what a shitshow for Ireland, which neither voted for nor deserves this.

The mood of comments of friends on FB has changed wildly. A few who were full on Corbyn disciples who are Labour members and did a lot of campaigning during 2017 have completely fallen out of love with him and his vision. Its shocking the degree to which they no longer hero worship in the way they did.

This is also very much my experience (and I would guess at my UK FB friends being >90% Labour voters). I can think of only a single friend who openly supports Corbyn now. It wasn't brexit that did it for most, but the antisemitism issue. Quite a few are party members or ex members.

This isn't a representative sample of Labour supporters though because it's mostly women with children. The one strong Corbyn supporter is an older male and I do think Corbynites are disproportionately male.

Which begs the question of how accurate polling is of labour members and how you assess his popularity.

I know quite a few big Corbyn fans (many of them male and including my husband) and a there is widespread dissatisfaction and dismay (my husband's word) with the brexit issue. All of them are remain voters and all of them hoped he would listen to the majority view of the membership and change his stance. They are now left conflicted as there is nobody else on the left representing their views yet brexit is a huge problem.

I am hearing more and more mumblings about voting lib Dems or green in a GE, though I think a reasonable proportional would end up not voting it going for an independent on a left wing manifesto. In my area it's a clear battle between Tory and Lib dem anyway so makes no real difference to labour, but if some Tory remainers swing as well could see a change to lib Dems. It also is, I suspect pretty representative of the average Corbyn voter (rather than the extreme caricature often talked about).

I see a similarity in one aspect between May and Corbyn in that the things their supporters likes about them was that they were stubborn and stuck to their principles. Now of course they are both being stubborn and sticking to their principles and it is exactly the very worst thing they could be doing.

There IS much, much further the UK can go down and that's true regardless of the fact that there are children raiding bins for food and actually much worse going on. We are one of the richest societies in the world, still, and the fact that people starving when their benefits are cut off, eating out of bins yet are still very much in the minority is evidence of that. That's just a fact. There are dozens and dozens of other countries you can look at as evidence of how much worse things can be.

I appreciate that it's unpalatable and a very difficult sell, to tell people whose living standards have gone right down that they could and indeed will be much further in the shitter should we leave the EU. Doesn't make it not true, doesn't mean we don't have a responsibility to say it. And that's why the approach of never mind Brexit we're interested in the real poverty issues is so disgustingly disingenuous.

@Tanith
^
Have you read the story on the BBC today about children in Morecambe eating out the school bins because they are so hungry?
I’m quite sure things could be worse and there will have been times throughout history that we are thankful we no longer endure.
However, in this country, in most people’s living experience, hungry children raiding rubbish bins is a pretty dire state of affairs, don’t you think? A few years ago, the country was appalled at the story of little Daniel Pelka reduced to doing this.

I work in a front line job and I actually hand out food bank vouchers to people. I know full well how hard things are for many. However, as David Lammy very eloquently put it "Blame is! Blame Westminster! Do not blame Brussels for your own country's mistakes"

Mrs8 absolutely

The one strong Corbyn supporter is an older male and I do think Corbynites are disproportionately male.

It's happened to the men and women in my circle.

I am an ex-Corbyn voter and left the Labour Party about a year ago. I am mortified by my naivety.

DP is still hanging on in there, still a member and still trying to see the best in JC, but even he is struggling to find a positive in the shitshow that is the current Labour Party.

As a GC feminist, I can't vote for the LibDems or the Green Party either.

Of course, none of this actually matters as we live in a safe Tory seat , so all my agonising about who to give my vote to is irrelevant really

As I said, I do know actual real life Corbyn voters and none of them see him as a messiah. He was the only person offering a left wing option in a political landscape moving steadily to the right. His manifesto was not at all even a bit extreme, but pretty basic left wing policies. The fact that people talk about his policies as being some sort of far left extremism demonstrates how much the centre has failed to pay any attention to a genuine desire from many younger people to move politics back towards the left.

Getting rid of Corbyn would be far easier if there was any other viable politician offering a reasonable leftist manifesto rather than just shouting about extremists and hanging onto the dregs of new labour. It is this lack of options that leaves people hanging into Corbyn.

Brexit might very well force them to let go of Corbyn but don't ked yourselves that they have seen the light and are suddenly going to come crawling to the centre right doffing their caps. Instead there will be a huge number of very dissatisfied, engaged voters with nobody in the mainstream representing anything even close to their views.

With Rudd's announcement re UC, I really do think they are preparing for an imminent GE.

The one strong Corbyn supporter is an older male and I do think Corbynites are disproportionately male.*

It's happened to the men and women in my circle.*

Yes I agree that both male and female supporters have been disillusioned. But the remaining true believers seem, from what I can see (anecdata) to be disproportionately male.

He was the only person offering a left wing option in a political landscape moving steadily to the right. His manifesto was not at all even a bit extreme, but pretty basic left wing policies.

Yes, I would agree with this. I still fundamentally support most of the manifesto ideas, but 'events' have rather overtaken them.

I really don't know that Corbyn has the monopoly on compassion and being left- wing.

A lot of those of us who are critical of Corbyn are pretty Left-wing. We just think he's a terrible, terrible leader. Remember, even Paul Mason thinks that.

'Centrist' is a term of abuse, frankly, rather than a descriptor of any kind of political position.

So, which are you?
www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/what-sort-of-remain-traitor-are-you-20190110181192
(Prob not the last unless one of us is actually John Bercow)

I'm another who agrees with many of the policies but doesn't think Corbyn is, has been or could be a competent leader. I did vote Labour last time but not sure I will feel able to do so again... do like my Labour MP though and he's Remain, speaks out against anti-Semitism and generally fairly sensible.

Another female Labour now disillusioned with Corbyn, with a male partner who voted for him twice and stubbornly sticks up for him (though in a low key way). E.g with the German piece where Corbyn said Brexit couldn’t be stopped, my DP argued that he probably didn’t really say that and it was most like the media misrepresenting. Not sure what he thinks about yesterday’s speech - he tends to get grumpy when I bring up Brexit and/or Corbyn.

The alternative to Corbyn is not "centre right" and of his opponents - and the Labour voters he has lost - are not centre right either,
but of the left and left of centre.

However, they are competent, which he is not
and they don't have his toxic history - and toxic present - of unacceptable associates
and they don't minimise / retweet anti-semitic propoganda.

With another leader, Labour would be miles ahead of the most incompetent govt in about 200 years and would be looking at a landslide victory at the next GE.
Blair was 25% ahead of the Tories, who were nowhere near as hopeless as the current shower.

Corbyn's policies atm include some socialist ones which would be bog-standard in much of the EU
(what he would do if elected during a breakdown of the economy & society might be much more extreme)

BUT
an enthusiasm for Brexit, which would make most ordinary people poorer
and hence is regarded as insane by all parties in the EU which are not of the populist far right or far left.
Only
Only the populist parties want chaos & disaster so they can get into power

AND
delusional claims of what he could renegotiate
and that he could increase spending to do what he wants withOUT increasing taxation

AND
other leftwing or centre parties don't minimise anti-semitism
They oppose it strongly - and mean it. No excuses. No ifs and buts.
Not just lying platitudes like Corbyn spouts

The centre right I was referring to was the leadership contenders and other parties rather than the voters themselves. The point was was trying to make was that he was and I think still is the only person someone can vote for to the left. The fact that lots of people who are leftwing didn't vote for him or like him doesn't change that there are no other leftwing parties or serious potential labour leaders in the mix who share his policy positions (or aren't just as rubbish as him).

When did centerist become an insult? I consider myself left wing but generally vote lib Dems who are in the centre I believe. Nothing wrong with that I would just prefer more outwardly leftist policies if they were on offer for me to vote for and was likely to win in my constituency.

I think we are agreeing BigChoc. All your BUTs are exactly why the Corbyn supporters I know are dismayed and dissillusioned.

The only thing I do disagree with is that there is a real alternative offering similar policies even within the labour party right now. I think we are left with a bit of a vacuum as people leave Corbyn and this could be a problem in an election.