Westminstenders: What The Hell Happens Next?!

[RedToothBrush]

John Bercow has just spent over at an hour dealing with a Points of Order, in which he has argued that he is defending the soverignty of the House of Commons and that is his duty, not to simply to be a cheerleader for the executive.

Taking back control seems to have rather upset ERG Brexiteers.

As Jess Phillips astutely pointed out:
"People only care about procedures, and protecting and conserving the procedures, when they don't like the outcome of the thing that is about to happen and never when it is going in their favour."

And given what we have seen the Executive do over the last few months in terms of trying to use procedure for its own political gain, this is quite a fair point.

There are however certain constitutional questions this is all raising. And we have a very real constitutional crisis here.

Bercow has ruled that he CAN allow an amendment (because the previous vote had prevented only a motion and a debate) put forward by Grieve to go to a vote.

This amendment would - if it is passed by the house - require May to report to the house within 3 days if the WA fails to pass next week.

This would be a significant victory, if it passed because at present the position is where May can delay reporting back to the house until it start to get to the point where politically the opposition can't influence things, and a 'meaningful vote' will in practice be more like a gun to the head by the Executive, rather than the House of Commons acting in a sovereign manner and being free to make its own decisions rather than be forced into a corner by Parliamentary Procedure and the politicking of Parliamentary Procedure to undermine the independence of the HoC.

Allowing more time for the opposition to hold the government to account, does not necessarily change anything. It just means the executive can not just run down the clock in the way it perhaps has been intending.

The HoC could of course, vote against the amendment.

The WA is to come to the HoC next week.

And we have no idea what the hell is going to happen next.

The argument is that NATO and the US 'saved' Western Europe from communism and that the only reason we have had peace in Europe is the US presence.

This is nonsense.

The US funded the Cold War for their own reasons. Europe was the field of play. The US did not 'help' Western Europe for altruistic reasons, they did it for their own geopolitical reasons.

Fair enough but don't make out you were doing Europe a favour.

The USSR wanted Eastern Europe as a buffer zone. France and Italy may possibly have elected communist governments post WW2 with US interference but this would have been a democratic decision.

The 'evil Soviet expansion bravely resisted by the selfless US' narrative is not the only perspective. It is infinitely more complex.

I was talking to a labour activist today who told me Brexit was not the most important issue facing the U.K. today and that we need to focus on the real issues.

Mousse
JCs disciples have informed me on FB that taxes are not necessary for spending
and that JC will make a socialist society work in the UK because he's better than other leaders

The level of critical thinking offered by this intelligent person was on a Brexit level.

I think this, I feel this, I want this so it must be true.

But he will never get enough support in places like Swindon - I suggested.

That's only because they haven't really heard and really listened to him. They will change their minds when they listen to him.

It's all about the feelz.

JCs disciples have informed me on FB that taxes are not necessary for spending

oh for fucks sake. They really think he’s magic don’t they.

@HoyPolloy
. If there's a chance for something radical then you probably think there's nothing to lose.
Sorry, I disagree. Things can get a lot worse. It's a very superficial argument if you think how bad things were after the Second World War. I wish people would stop saying they voted Brexit hoping for a change because they have nothing to lose.

Maybe leavers should have a quick read of this:
www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-36319877
It should be the link to the crisis in Venezuela.
Populist government handling things badly.

The idea that America is some kind of moral force for good imo only dates from Roosevelt's era and actions. Since the 80s it has been more of a velvet covering over the steel of pragmatic self-interestedness, and that velvet covering is now wearing very thin indeed. Since Trump started cosying up to Putin I have had the thought that the world map looks like two allied large powers on either side of Europe. I'm afraid that the fate that awaits any power, however strong it is, caught between two other belligerents is universal. Britain is no better now. Decency is leaving the world, except for what remains of it in the EU, and all there is left is jockeying for the advantage of a few of our elites. Unless we can somehow bring it back.

{I was talking to a labour activist today who told me Brexit was not the most important issue facing the U.K. today and that we need to focus on the real issues.}
While I suppose not actually incorrect, there is the small issue that if some proper work isn't put into sorting out Brexit there will be no money to fix anything.

Ta1kinPeace, no boss telling him what to do, take on the jobs he wants to do, not the ones forced on him by the boss who doesn’t want to do them, start what time you want, Finnish what time you want, holidays when you want, day off with out asking anybody,
Everybody employed or self employed has to work with in regulations

This article is great at explaining what has been going on in parliament. I like to think I am intelligent but I was unable to understand at all what exactly had gone on. Now I get it a little more.

www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/01/09/parliament-is-now-at-war-with-government-and-it-s-winning

The article also very clearly describes how undemocratic TM's actions have been.

"her standard operating procedure: to ignore parliament, to tread roughshod over centuries of parliamentary convention and basic democratic principles."

{Populist government handling things badly.}
Inflation rate of 1.3Million%
Price doubles every 19 days.

no boss telling him what to do, take on the jobs he wants to do, not the ones forced on him by the boss who doesn’t want to do them, start what time you want, Finnish what time you want, holidays when you want, day off with out asking anybody,

No sickpay - no paid maternity/ paternity leave. No employer contributing to a pension scheme. Being responsible for sorting their own tax - or paying someone else to do it - and therefore vulnerable to the demands (and mistakes) of HMRC. A Holiday/ day off whenever you want - but no pay for that. Competing against much bigger firms who have better resources to advertise and ability to undercut your prices, plus who have a trusted reputation. Having to build up your own reputation - could take years. Shouldering the expense of starting up all by yourself. Having to pay all the overheads yourself. No guarantee of work in any given week/ month. No security if business takes a down turn. No redundancy package if your business folds...

Self employment comes with considerable risks. There are reasons people choose the safety and security of working for a company over the 'freedom' of self employment.

Everybody employed or self employed has to work with in regulations

As does any country hoping to trade with other countries. So why rip up the trade deals we already have with the worlds largest trading block in order to try and create brand new deals that will also come with rules and regulations? Especially as we will be making these trade deals from a position of relative weakness ... a little bit like a self employed plumber probably doesn't get much of a say in what the standards and regulations they have to adhere to are, but big utility companies will be able to lobby for what they want.

Hmmm - you know, I can sort of see the analogy here.

Corbyn is not popular in many Labour areas even amongst Labour members. Locally corbynists have faired badly in local party affairs and his name is absolute mud with many labour voters I've spoken to. The local newspaper comments which mention Corbyn (from Labour supporters) are less than complimentary. Hell Corbyn even put in a personal appearance to get his candidate selected and that didn't happen.

He remains hugely popular within the party as a whole though. Which is curious and really does suggest his popularity is not universal but instead incredibly concentrated in certain areas but not at all in others.

The mood of comments of friends on FB has changed wildly. A few who were full on Corbyn disciples who are Labour members and did a lot of campaigning during 2017 have completely fallen out of love with him and his vision. Its shocking the degree to which they no longer hero worship in the way they did.

In 2017 there was a real energy and enthusiasm for Corbyn that seems to have gone right off the boil. There is a certain number of people who sound 'jaded' and completely disillusioned in him as Leader. If a GE was called in the near future I do think this will be problematic because even if Corbyn can muster up some momentum to his campaign and can run a very emotion driven campaign against the evil of the tories, I don't think it can have the same level of impact.

Corbyn's last campaign framed him as a champion of hope for the future. But too many feel let down and are disillusioned by his performance over the last 18 months. People were in love with the idea of what they thought Corbyn was - someone who was different from other politicians and listened to the members and to the public. That image has been somewhat shattered.

Many of the PLP didn't think they would win their seats but worked hard and had lots of activists work hard for weeks both in person and online.

Instead I think there is a hard core of Corbyn supporters and an ever widening gap to Corbyn sympathisers and the 'evil blairite centerists' who do lean firmly left despite the best efforts of the nutters to suggest they are hard core blue kippers who love Thatcher.

I think the polling about what happens after Brexit if Labour play it wrong illustrates my anecdotal observations and gut feeling. Its not just something pollsters are registering. The mood is fundamentally different. Even playing another it's a straight choice between then and us, I don't think will work. There's too much 'what's the point?' apathy and loss of hope in the air.

People don't believe in the revolution like they did in 2017. It's a creeping sentiment. It's different from the straight 'I don't like Corbyn' for whatever reason it happens to be. It's something else which I can't quite verbalise. It's more of a feeling. And as we've learn the emotion of politics and how we connect to leaders and campaigns has the power to swing a vote.

In 2017 by election day people had generally seen May for what she is. If anything since then she's won a grudging admiration purely for still being a survivor even if people hate her, think she's abused her position and power of the executive, despise her policies and thing she's been completely incompetent on Brexit. And ironically when people come to vote, many will vote on the basis of this image versus the image of Corbyn. It's why his approvals are worse than hers.

People will blame the mass media bias out to get Corbyn, but its more than that. All the missed opportunities in speeches like today or making the right point at PMQ haven't gone unnoticed either by former fans of Corbyn.

It's fascinating to watch and see how it's playing out. It could be very different in just a few months. But that where I feel the mood is right now. I don't think Corbyn could pull the same trick a second time.

Is this the answer to why Johnson has been so quiet of late? He's too busy with other things...

Today obviously has been an incredibly slow news day

I was talking to a labour activist today who told me Brexit was not the most important issue facing the U.K. today and that we need to focus on the real issues.

There's loads of those on Twitter. I spotted someone I know in real life just before one of the anti-Brexit marches saying the pro-NHS march was more important. Could not see, at all, that Brexit harms the NHS. I've seen this line of thinking a lot on the JC4PM Twitter accounts.

Caught the end of BBQT - Fiona Bruce was very good. All felt a lot calmer but with more penetrative questioning.

“ I wish people would stop saying they voted Brexit hoping for a change because they have nothing to lose.”

Have you read the story on the BBC today about children in Morecambe eating out the school bins because they are so hungry?
I’m quite sure things could be worse and there will have been times throughout history that we are thankful we no longer endure.
However, in this country, in most people’s living experience, hungry children raiding rubbish bins is a pretty dire state of affairs, don’t you think? A few years ago, the country was appalled at the story of little Daniel Pelka reduced to doing this.

And the 'Trans Issue' really isn't going away. It's now on the Telegraph's front page for the first time. It must be hitting a certain cord with the public. This is the third newspaper it's been on the front page for now. It must be shifting papers.

To continue the demolition of the self-employed plumber analogy (or perhaps proving how accurate it is but not in the way that was intended )

....it's like leaving your well paid job with good prospects and a say in how the job would develop to become a self employed plumber even though the last plumbing work you did was 50 years ago, you have no formal qualifications, no business plans and the customers you think want to do business with you are already using qualified plumbers But you think it will ok as you can learn on the job And those potential customers used to work for you (even though you exploited them at the time ) so you're confident that they'll want to give you a good deal ( they might, but it will be a good deal for them and there might be a degree of schadenfreude as they remember how hard you used to make them work for you, without proper payment, and how hard you made it for them to leave )

So all in all, a misguided decision, based on faulty assumptions, that is unlikely to leave you better off.

And that's before even factoring in all the regulations, HRMC etc that you will have to follow and the lack of any form of safety net.

He replies: "Not at all. Britain has always been a nation that will always achieve and will always deliver. We can be optimistic and confident."

Well, where now are the following Empires:
Roman,
Spanish,
Austro-Hungarian,
Ottoman?

Now the last two might be considered regional empires, but the first two would surely have been considered global empires in their time? Yes, they all left their mark, see our Roman roads and ruins, but the fact that they are relics of the past tells its own story.

IThe thing is, Tanith, it is 'patronising people with cowardice' to not tell people that such poverty has nothing to do with the EU, and leaving wi make things worse.

While you can reasonably expect access to the NHS and free education, things can get worse.

It helps no-one, it appeases people's anger with lies, to try to elide the difference between a concern for poverty and a continued push for Brexit.

It is a form of lying, by false representation, to try and paint concern about Brexit as a lack of concern about current poverty.

It's quite bizarre, in fact.

Brexit hands over the fate of the homeless, of children scavenging for food, of people waiting for NHS treatment, of parents, children and teachers in cash-starved schools, to a truly deracinated and disinterested group of disaster capitalists and authoritarians, who would love nothing better than an impoverished labour pool, whipped by the reality of extreme poverty (shanty towns, no free public goods) who will accept almost anything.

I work in schools. I deal with poverty. I know it's there. I care.

It doesn't stop me from being shit scared of what Brexit will bring. It doesn't stop me feeling actual rage and fury that the leader of the Labour Party is disingenuously telling me not to worry my little head about it. More than that - that my fear is a form of lack of concern about poverty right now.

It's lying.

I know lying. I know what it feels like to be lied to. To have someone insist your perceptions aren't real; that black is white.

We've all been lied to too much.

I'm appalled at this latest manoeuvre.

It is a form of patronising born of cowardice. It is an appeasement. People deserve better. If you truly respect people, believe in their personhood - and that they have agency, intelligence, and capabilities, despite the horrific circumstances they are enduring - you don't lie to them like children, or appease them as though they are a mindless danger. You give people truth, power and respect.

Unless you are living on the street and receivng no benefits or help whatsoever, things CAN get worse.

Even if you have no job, or nmw one, you'll lose when you lose benefits and public services
after many of the people paying taxes for these lose their jobs too

P&O Ferries leaves UK register altogether

https://www.shippax.com/en/news/po-ferries-leaves-uk-register-altogether.aspx

P&O Ferries has confirmed to Shippax that its entire Dover fleet will be registered in Cyprus.
The announcement comes four weeks after P&O Ferries declared to transfer its Dover-based flagships
......
Tech developer quits UK usaying Brexit has ‘killed’ his business

"mindless tribalism" and weak Sterling after the ref

• most of his business came in from abroad, bringing in new money for the UK economy and HMRC.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/10/tech-developer-quits-uk-saying-brexit-has-killed-his-business
.......
"Brexit is not a business disrupter, it’s a business bankrupter"

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/16/brexit-is-a-business-bankrupter-small-firms-brace-for-no-deal

Small and medium-sized businesses, the lifeblood of communities, have told of difficult decisions to quit Britain or cancel investment plans because of Brexit.
.....
Loughlin is urging other businesses to speak out but he fears they could be deterred by the abuse that could result.

“We’ve done some media locally and we’ve had people calling customer service with abusive messages saying this is all our fault,
we’ve had abusive comments on social media that we have had to block and delete,” ...^

“This is why businesses are scared to talk out."
......
He was invited to Westminster to give a talk in Portcullis House about the challenges Brexit was posing to businesses in the west country.

“Not a single Tory MP showed up,”
..... Jacob Rees-Mogg, a prominent Brexiter, is the MP for North East Somerset, a neighbouring constituency.

Veteran Leave campaigner R North on car manufacturers

He also brings a reality check on proposed new ferry services, which will be laughably inadequate compared to what is needed

http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=87113

"However, the news on Honda is rather different.
The company plans to halt production at its UK plant for six days after Brexit,
enabling the group to stockpile parts in the days immediately following Britain's departure from the EU, and to ride out any short-term interruptions in supplies.
...
The BMW-owned Mini plant is shutting down for its four-week maintenance period in April instead of the summer

and Toyota is prepared temporarily to cease production in the event of any disruption to its supply chain following Brexit.

Hard-headed businesses are not given to attacks of the vapours, their plans driven by "project fear" to the extent that they drop millions from their bottom lines.
These are real concerns, based on the best evidence available."

Fuel rationing in NI will mean drivers heading to the Republic to fill up/smuggle fuel back across the border. Which will mean someone will need to police cars going back and forth...