Westminstenders: What The Hell Happens Next?!

[RedToothBrush]

John Bercow has just spent over at an hour dealing with a Points of Order, in which he has argued that he is defending the soverignty of the House of Commons and that is his duty, not to simply to be a cheerleader for the executive.

Taking back control seems to have rather upset ERG Brexiteers.

As Jess Phillips astutely pointed out:
"People only care about procedures, and protecting and conserving the procedures, when they don't like the outcome of the thing that is about to happen and never when it is going in their favour."

And given what we have seen the Executive do over the last few months in terms of trying to use procedure for its own political gain, this is quite a fair point.

There are however certain constitutional questions this is all raising. And we have a very real constitutional crisis here.

Bercow has ruled that he CAN allow an amendment (because the previous vote had prevented only a motion and a debate) put forward by Grieve to go to a vote.

This amendment would - if it is passed by the house - require May to report to the house within 3 days if the WA fails to pass next week.

This would be a significant victory, if it passed because at present the position is where May can delay reporting back to the house until it start to get to the point where politically the opposition can't influence things, and a 'meaningful vote' will in practice be more like a gun to the head by the Executive, rather than the House of Commons acting in a sovereign manner and being free to make its own decisions rather than be forced into a corner by Parliamentary Procedure and the politicking of Parliamentary Procedure to undermine the independence of the HoC.

Allowing more time for the opposition to hold the government to account, does not necessarily change anything. It just means the executive can not just run down the clock in the way it perhaps has been intending.

The HoC could of course, vote against the amendment.

The WA is to come to the HoC next week.

And we have no idea what the hell is going to happen next.

iIt s "strictly ill-advised to lie down on a bomb",
Bless the man ! 😂

Japanese President saying to May that the whole wants 'no deal' ruled out.
I wonder who will listen?

Not May.

She won't listen and she'll drive us off the cliff.

I am equally worried about relying on MPs to somehow avert No Deal - and Brexit - than I am about voters in a PV.

Remember how many MPs voted to invoke A50 ?

and most MPs arguing against No Deal keep insisting on CU instead of SM for "frictionless trade",
or fantasising about negotiating a new deal
They are as delusional as the most uninformed voter

Very few voters have super-wealthy chums waiting to loot the country, or own chunks of investment & hedge funds themselves

No voters have their future careers tied up in voting Brexit No Deal.

So I trust most MPs even less than the public

Also, do you think that those who wouldn't accept Revoke from a PV would be any more willing to accept it from MPs ?
Just look at the demonisation of Bercow
and the thuggery trying to intimidate the few openly Remain-leaning MPs

So sad. That's it.

If it were negotiated and agreed over the last two years. But no.

Theresa May invoked A50 with no plan, no idea what the consequences would be. I absolutely despair at that move. It did not have to happen then did it?

So here we are. It is fkn awful that there is so much uncertainty now. Every day brings another crisis or something.

Great way to live our lives. NOT.

For the President of Japan to be saying this, I know it might sound harsh but if May does go for no deal, the P45's will be written the working day after 29th for most Japanese companies.
Nissan have announced 6 days closure following 29th anyway, presumably to 'digest' the news.

The Independentt@Independent*

Repeated radio signals are coming from a galaxy 1.5 billion light years away
....
The Irish Borderr@BorderIrish*

... h ... a ... v ... e ... a ... n ... o ... t ... h ... e ... r ... v ... o ... t ... e ... f ... f ... s ...

DG "Capital of England" - sadly true !

DG "Capital of England" - sadly true !

{Theresa May invoked A50 with no plan, no idea what the consequences would be. I absolutely despair at that move. }
But far worse, she was well aware of the problem with a border in NI, and all the other serious negative consequences.
And still no one has managed to suggest anything that is more substantial than unicorn dust as to what the UK will do to replace lost industry.

Don't forget she thought the ECHR was the ECJ too.

Confusion & squabbling still reigns in the govt:

Sam Coates Times@SamCoatesTimes Alan McGuinnesss@Alan*_McGuinness

Cabinet splits again over public no-deal stance

Gavin Williamson is asked if he agrees with Cabinet colleague Greg Clark's claim that "no-deal" would cause "incalculable damage".

He replies: "Not at all. Britain has always been a nation that will always achieve and will always deliver. We can be optimistic and confident."
....
Sam Coates Times Retweeted Steven Swinford@Steven_Swinford

No 10 and the Chief Whip at odds:

No 10: There will 'only be 90 minutes of debate on the motion' & 'only one amendment could be selected'

Chief Whip: No decision has been made. Govt will do everything it can to ensure the House is fully consulted. The information is not correct

1tisILeClerc

Yep. But honestly, the speed with which A50 was invoked by May surprised me. Lots. It wasn't necessary to do that so quickly I think.

I doubt she or her cabinet and whomever realised the implications of that move either.

But she did it IMV to look decisive. And here we are now.

Well, some of May's shameless NY Honours bungs may have worked - on at least one prominant Brexit Ultra is wavering:

Tom Newton Dunnn@tnewtondunn*

The newly elevated Rt Hon Sir Edward Leigh? Changing his mind? Surely not.

Alex Wickhamm@alexwickham*

Some more movement... Brexiteer rebel Edward Leigh has told friends he may now vote for the deal
(his office say he will decide in the next few days)

{I doubt she or her cabinet and whomever realised the implications of that move either.}
Ignorance of the law is no defence, much as ignoring the many experienced 'civil servants' who know all the background details, unless they have been replaced by school leavers.

Alex Wickham @alexwickham
114!

George Freeman is the first Tory MP to be removed from this list after changing his mind and backing May's deal

113! Trudy Harrison says she now backs the deal. She had previously signed the StandUp4Brexit pledge

The number refers to the number of tory MPs who refuse to back May's deal - so its now apparently 112 but the point is there is Brexiteer movement. It just depends on how much there is.

But this contradicts this

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
Blimey. PM will lose meaningful vote on Tuesday by a majority of 228, research by @BBCPolitics finds. Number of MPs opposing up by 19 since the delay last month. For: 206, Against: 433.

Alex Wickham @alexwickham
Some more movement... Brexiteer rebel Edward Leigh has told friends he may now vote for the deal (his office say he will decide in the next few days)

George Eaton @georgeeaton
What could possibly have prompted the newly-knighted Edward Leigh MP to consider voting for May's deal?

Alex Wickham @alexwickham
Those friends insist any change of mind is nothing to do with Leigh being appointed to the privy council two weeks ago

www.channel4.com/news/by/gary-gibbon/blogs/theresa-may-calls-the-unions
Theresa May calls the unions

Theresa May has just started to do something Tory Prime Ministers haven’t done for a very long time and conduct a phone-round of trade union general secretaries.

As part of a Brexit outreach, trying to work out where opinion is amongst the wider Labour movement, the PM has called Unite’s Len McCluskey and is also planning to speak to the GMB’s Tim Roache.

After her meeting with Labour MPs led by John Mann, Mrs May’s team came away with the message that few were ready to vote for her on the basis of a pledge on workers’ rights but more could be available if there was a different approach to the final Brexit deal.

Chris Mason @ChrisMasonBBC
Tim Roache of the GMB: "As you would expect, I was very clear about GMB’s position - the deal on the table isn’t good enough and non-binding assurances on workers' rights won’t cut it."

PM not known for keeping her promises to parliament for some unknown reason is not trusted by the Unions.

"You would have put Jeremy Clarkson down (in fact that sentence could really have stopped there ) as a Brexiteer on steroids, whereas he's pretty pro-Remain."

What's amusing is that I had a quick look at the Leave.EU FB page yesterday just to see what messages they're selling their followers now. And one of them was a quote from Jeremy, totally taken out of context and presumably lapped up by the followers missing the point that's he's a pretty committed remainer. I couldn't bring myself to look at the comments to check whether anyone else had noticed.

Lloyd Russell-Moyle, ardent MP ranting and mewling, watching his appalling “showy” performance in the HoC right now. he’s a labour MP for Brighton, I’m very glad he isn’t mine, his speech just now would have made me hurl if he were!

Yes, I think TM invoked Art 50 in order to look decisive. It’s what politicians do, safe in the knowledge that someone else will sort out the mess/electorate isn’t paying attention/electorate will forget soon enough. (Not easy to predict what the electorate remembers and bears grudges about though.)
Japanese PM’s statement is a warning, delivered in inscrutable diplomatic style. The warning is “no deal and the UK economy is fucked”. Can our Parliamentarians interpret this?

Watching the debate.

Eddie Hughes, MP for Walsall, has just compared leaving the EU to deciding to quit your job to become a self-employed plumber.

The worst thing about it was that he was clearly so pleased with himself and his shitty, embarrassing analogy.

I just... I can't... Surely this level of fuckwittery can't be real?

UnnecessaryFennel And a lot of rich Plumbers will tell you it was the best thing they ever done

I thought Leavers were triggered by using analogies. Always criticising Remain voters who use them on here. Ho hum. No point arguing the toss over Leave vs Remain. The only discussion should be WA or No Deal. Or, obviously, Revoke, but that is far too terrifying for Leavers to contemplate whereas No Deal isn't as bad.

Peter Foster @pmdfoster
The problem at the heart of the #Brexit impasse is still whether the UK remain in a Customs Union with the EU.

Solve this and you largely solve Brexit. 1/Thread

Both the problem, and the failure to address it, is writ large in May's deal. Officially UK is NOT joining a customs union....but in the absence of unicorns we clearly are. Either via the Backstop or when its clear 'other arrangements' dont exist to fix the Irish border /2

Unfortunately May never had the courage to confront her Brexiteers over this fact. She fudged in Lancaster House, and kept fudging. Recall this time last year, as the Irish reality dawned, senior peeps like @DLidington were flying kites on this.
www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/01/19/david-lidington-interview-britain-could-join-customs-union-eu/
David Lidington interview: why Britain could join a customs union with the EU after Brexit

David Allen Green @davidallengreen
On a desk in Downing Street there is a sheet of paper with the title "Plan A".

The sheet is otherwise blank.

The prime minister takes a pen and crosses out the "A" and writes "B" instead.

"There," she says to herself, "that should do it".